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Currencies

Global equity markets are generally higher in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts. Japanese policy makers huddle to seek plan to rescue the Yen
28th Mar 24, 7:47am
Global equity markets are generally higher in the absence of economic data or fresh catalysts. Japanese policy makers huddle to seek plan to rescue the Yen
Local interest rates shift up ahead of a new 2035 NZGB to be offered by syndication. US data mixed with labour market expectations tightening
27th Mar 24, 7:56am
Local interest rates shift up ahead of a new 2035 NZGB to be offered by syndication. US data mixed with labour market expectations tightening
Kiwi downside pressure remains as recent data signals sluggish growth. US dollar downturn expected once Fed commences easing, but may not play out
26th Mar 24, 9:13am
Kiwi downside pressure remains as recent data signals sluggish growth. US dollar downturn expected once Fed commences easing, but may not play out
PBoC and China state banks show support for the yuan, helping the NZD regain 0.60; NZD/AUD nudges down to a fresh four-month low near 0.9180. Market ignores Japan's top currency official's threat of intervention to support JPY
26th Mar 24, 7:45am
PBoC and China state banks show support for the yuan, helping the NZD regain 0.60; NZD/AUD nudges down to a fresh four-month low near 0.9180. Market ignores Japan's top currency official's threat of intervention to support JPY
Roger J Kerr says the root cause of the current economic downturn has to be sheeted home to just bad management – particularly Government fiscal policy management and RBNZ monetary policy management in response to the Covid pandemic
25th Mar 24, 8:17am
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Roger J Kerr says the root cause of the current economic downturn has to be sheeted home to just bad management – particularly Government fiscal policy management and RBNZ monetary policy management in response to the Covid pandemic
Rising US treasury yields last week's major story, DXY gaining momentum. Reserve Bank of Australia meeting: presents as a low volatility event
25th Mar 24, 8:08am
Rising US treasury yields last week's major story, DXY gaining momentum. Reserve Bank of Australia meeting: presents as a low volatility event
Global equity markets consolidated near recent record highs while bond markets moved lower in yield. The Chinese yuan fell sharply after authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. Yuan weakness weighed on NZD & AUD
25th Mar 24, 7:31am
Global equity markets consolidated near recent record highs while bond markets moved lower in yield. The Chinese yuan fell sharply after authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. Yuan weakness weighed on NZD & AUD
Global equity markets rise to fresh record highs across the US, Europe and Japan. USD weakness after the Fed’s policy update yesterday has completely reversed. A surprise rate cut by the Swiss got the market’s attention but spillover limited
22nd Mar 24, 7:52am
Global equity markets rise to fresh record highs across the US, Europe and Japan. USD weakness after the Fed’s policy update yesterday has completely reversed. A surprise rate cut by the Swiss got the market’s attention but spillover limited
Market reaction to the Fed’s latest policy update has been well contained, with relief that the Fed still projects three rate cuts this year. The US Treasuries curve is steeper on the day, driven by lower rates at the short end
21st Mar 24, 7:57am
Market reaction to the Fed’s latest policy update has been well contained, with relief that the Fed still projects three rate cuts this year. The US Treasuries curve is steeper on the day, driven by lower rates at the short end
Roger J Kerr says the Fed will not be changing their view or stance due to recent oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices
18th Mar 24, 9:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the Fed will not be changing their view or stance due to recent oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices
Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher
18th Mar 24, 7:30am
Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher
US PPI inflation comes in hot; US retail sales weaker than expected, consistent with a shift down in consumer spending. US Fed rate cut expectations pushed back. Oil prices at new four-month high as IEA now looking for a supply deficit through the year
15th Mar 24, 7:48am
US PPI inflation comes in hot; US retail sales weaker than expected, consistent with a shift down in consumer spending. US Fed rate cut expectations pushed back. Oil prices at new four-month high as IEA now looking for a supply deficit through the year
US PPI beat: producer prices rise most in 6 months; follows hot CPI. US treasury yields rip higher, 10-year back near 4.30%; US dollar stronger Odds of a June cut lower as sticky inflation may delay the easing cycle
15th Mar 24, 7:43am
US PPI beat: producer prices rise most in 6 months; follows hot CPI. US treasury yields rip higher, 10-year back near 4.30%; US dollar stronger Odds of a June cut lower as sticky inflation may delay the easing cycle
Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages
14th Mar 24, 7:53am
Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages
US CPI data a touch higher than expected, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields up 5-6bps across the curve; USD modestly higher. BoJ speculation on imminent rate hike continues
13th Mar 24, 7:47am
US CPI data a touch higher than expected, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields up 5-6bps across the curve; USD modestly higher. BoJ speculation on imminent rate hike continues
US equities down, yields down, crude down, gold flat, US dollar up. Markets slip into wat-and-see mode ahead of US CPI
12th Mar 24, 8:29am
US equities down, yields down, crude down, gold flat, US dollar up. Markets slip into wat-and-see mode ahead of US CPI
US Treasury yields push higher, with supply factors weighing on the market and caution ahead of tonight's key US CPI report. Currency markets well contained but yen continues to outperform on speculation of a hawkish BoJ pivot as soon as next week
12th Mar 24, 7:39am
US Treasury yields push higher, with supply factors weighing on the market and caution ahead of tonight's key US CPI report. Currency markets well contained but yen continues to outperform on speculation of a hawkish BoJ pivot as soon as next week
US employment report: NFP beats, but prior month revised notably lower. US treasury yields and the dollar fall, equity markets retreat, appear toppy
11th Mar 24, 9:29am
US employment report: NFP beats, but prior month revised notably lower. US treasury yields and the dollar fall, equity markets retreat, appear toppy
Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
11th Mar 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
11th Mar 24, 7:31am
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
8th Mar 24, 7:49am
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
7th Mar 24, 7:47am
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
US ISM services PMI misses consensus forecasts, yields/dollar pushed lower. China's Premier Li Qiang delivers Chinese govt. work report, 5% growth targeted
6th Mar 24, 7:58am
US ISM services PMI misses consensus forecasts, yields/dollar pushed lower. China's Premier Li Qiang delivers Chinese govt. work report, 5% growth targeted
US data print weaker again; ISM services index lower alongside more market-friendly inflation measures. Weaker equities backdrop supports US Treasuries; yields down 4-6bps for the day. China's 5% GDP growth target seen as optimistic
6th Mar 24, 7:45am
US data print weaker again; ISM services index lower alongside more market-friendly inflation measures. Weaker equities backdrop supports US Treasuries; yields down 4-6bps for the day. China's 5% GDP growth target seen as optimistic
US GDP circa 2-3% range, unemployment sub-4%; cuts currently not required. But consensus view is that Fed cuts in 2H, and the USD weakens
5th Mar 24, 8:15am
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US GDP circa 2-3% range, unemployment sub-4%; cuts currently not required. But consensus view is that Fed cuts in 2H, and the USD weakens