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Which of these factors is likely to have the biggest impact on our economy over the next 12 months?

Choices

Bonds

Inflation Indexed Bond tender number 538 results

September 2035 Government inflation linked tender reasonably well bid; weighted accepted average yield 1.87% (previously 1.79%)

More leniency from the RBNZ?

The dairy auction and US data should see lower NZ yields and flatter curve today. Sharp rise in yields expected if the RBA doesn't cut on Tuesday

English won't commit to surplus

English warns oil royalties and withholding taxes on bank deposits down; says 'wait and see' on whether Budget is in surplus by Oct; rejects call for lower OCR target

The inconvenient truth of inflation and economic growth

Inflation is not dead, it is heading for 5% says Roger J Kerr who has 'a thousand words' to support that in two short images

Inflation targets questioned

BNZ economists suggest the targeted 1-3% inflation band could be lowered

S&P still wary of NZ house price inflation

Potential for big drop in NZ property prices still concerns Standard & Poor's. But credit rating agency has 'base case' expectation of stability for NZ banking sector

GDP growth fastest since 2007

Updated
GDP grew 3.3% in 2014; driven by retailing, tourism and real estate services; in line with forecasts; no change to OCR outlook; Price deflator down 1.6% in 6 mths

'More pressure on the oligopoly'

Morgan Stanley analysts see APRA heat on big Australasian banks over interest only mortgages and loans to property investors

Moody's sees avalanche of Basel III securities

ANZ NZ, ASB and BNZ have a combined NZ$3.05 billion worth of Basel II securities that won't qualify as regulatory capital by 2018

RBNZ sees flat rates until 2017

Updated
RBNZ holds OCR; forecasts 90 day bill rate unchanged at 3.7% until 2017; says strong downward correction needed for NZ$; But currency instead jumps almost a cent

Joyce may cut export share target

In wake of dairy price slump, Economic Development Minister says Govt may reduce target of lifting exports to 40% of GDP by 2025, citing shifting statistics