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GDP

New Zealand economy shrinks a more than expected 0.6% in December quarter
16th Mar 23, 10:57am
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New Zealand economy shrinks a more than expected 0.6% in December quarter
Roger J Kerr sees the American Fed decisions driven by employment & wage trends, deficit & debt ceiling issues, credit stress, and US rent trends. Fed hawkishness and USD strength has run its course, he says
13th Mar 23, 8:41am
1
Roger J Kerr sees the American Fed decisions driven by employment & wage trends, deficit & debt ceiling issues, credit stress, and US rent trends. Fed hawkishness and USD strength has run its course, he says
Roger J Kerr says Australia will out-perform New Zealand in the GDP economic growth stakes this year, but the interest rate differential will remain in favour of NZ over coming months with our  wage-push and sticky inflation problem
6th Mar 23, 8:04am
Roger J Kerr says Australia will out-perform New Zealand in the GDP economic growth stakes this year, but the interest rate differential will remain in favour of NZ over coming months with our  wage-push and sticky inflation problem
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows some further improvement in activity indicators - but inflation expectations 'remain stuck around 6%'
28th Feb 23, 1:30pm
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Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows some further improvement in activity indicators - but inflation expectations 'remain stuck around 6%'
Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank are still full of inflation problems, but offer no solutions
27th Feb 23, 7:48am
3
Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank are still full of inflation problems, but offer no solutions
[updated]
'People who took out high leveraged loans in the 2020-21 period will be facing very high interest servicing costs'; RBNZ says gap between mortgage and deposit interest rates 'more extreme over recent times'
23rd Feb 23, 9:37am
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'People who took out high leveraged loans in the 2020-21 period will be facing very high interest servicing costs'; RBNZ says gap between mortgage and deposit interest rates 'more extreme over recent times'
[updated]
The Reserve Bank says while there are early signs of demand easing it continues to outpace supply, as reflected in strong domestic inflation; sees recent storm damage adding 0.3 percentage points to inflation in the March and June 2023 quarters
22nd Feb 23, 2:11pm
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The Reserve Bank says while there are early signs of demand easing it continues to outpace supply, as reflected in strong domestic inflation; sees recent storm damage adding 0.3 percentage points to inflation in the March and June 2023 quarters
Roger J Kerr sees the Kiwi dollar rising against the American currency again over coming weeks and months; says NZ needs a net inflow of 60,000 migrants per year
20th Feb 23, 8:01am
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Roger J Kerr sees the Kiwi dollar rising against the American currency again over coming weeks and months; says NZ needs a net inflow of 60,000 migrants per year
Influential RBNZ survey shows substantial drop in expectations of inflation in two years time - albeit that at 3.3% the survey respondents still see inflation outside the targeted band in 2025
14th Feb 23, 3:25pm
48
Influential RBNZ survey shows substantial drop in expectations of inflation in two years time - albeit that at 3.3% the survey respondents still see inflation outside the targeted band in 2025
Keynes warned us that practical men and women are but slaves of defunct economists. Economist Brian Easton says the comment is particularly relevant as we try to understand the prospects for inflation
13th Feb 23, 9:23am
8
Keynes warned us that practical men and women are but slaves of defunct economists. Economist Brian Easton says the comment is particularly relevant as we try to understand the prospects for inflation
Roger J Kerr has a look at the alternative strategies and tactics the RBNZ could adopt
13th Feb 23, 8:31am
6
Roger J Kerr has a look at the alternative strategies and tactics the RBNZ could adopt
Roger J Kerr says monetary tightening to bring down inflation always seems to require a higher exchange rate
6th Feb 23, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says monetary tightening to bring down inflation always seems to require a higher exchange rate
David Hargreaves says with key economic data starting to turn out softer than expected, crunch time is looming for the Reserve Bank in its inflation battle and in how far it wants to drive up interest rates
2nd Feb 23, 12:20pm
60
David Hargreaves says with key economic data starting to turn out softer than expected, crunch time is looming for the Reserve Bank in its inflation battle and in how far it wants to drive up interest rates
Statistics New Zealand says annual inflation for households was 8.2% in the year to December 2022, fueled by housing, food and transport costs
2nd Feb 23, 11:13am
45
Statistics New Zealand says annual inflation for households was 8.2% in the year to December 2022, fueled by housing, food and transport costs
Roger J Kerr suggests four actions that could address our current inflation problem. He also is sanguine about how the US debt ceiling problem resolution. And he is highly critical of how the RBA is foreseeing its developing issues
30th Jan 23, 8:30am
8
Roger J Kerr suggests four actions that could address our current inflation problem. He also is sanguine about how the US debt ceiling problem resolution. And he is highly critical of how the RBA is foreseeing its developing issues
Bank economists are now suggesting the Reserve Bank should dial back its intentions on how far and high the Official Cash Rate will go
25th Jan 23, 4:12pm
55
Bank economists are now suggesting the Reserve Bank should dial back its intentions on how far and high the Official Cash Rate will go
ANZ economists change their call and now expect the Reserve Bank to lift the Official Cash Rate by 50 points next month, rather than the signalled 75 points; Kiwibank economists see peak OCR of 5% - 'enough is enough'
25th Jan 23, 11:00am
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ANZ economists change their call and now expect the Reserve Bank to lift the Official Cash Rate by 50 points next month, rather than the signalled 75 points; Kiwibank economists see peak OCR of 5% - 'enough is enough'
David Hargreaves tries to make sense of a very quick beginning to the year, which means we are unlikely to be able to draw breath until the October election is over. Expect drama
24th Jan 23, 11:05am
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David Hargreaves tries to make sense of a very quick beginning to the year, which means we are unlikely to be able to draw breath until the October election is over. Expect drama
Kiwibank economists are hoping the Reserve Bank can be deterred from its signalled 75 basis point Official Cash Rate hike and 'meet in the middle' with a 50 point rise
23rd Jan 23, 11:00am
62
Kiwibank economists are hoping the Reserve Bank can be deterred from its signalled 75 basis point Official Cash Rate hike and 'meet in the middle' with a 50 point rise
Economist Brian Easton says people complain about their jobs being meaningless, and asks: Does it matter?
23rd Jan 23, 9:08am
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Economist Brian Easton says people complain about their jobs being meaningless, and asks: Does it matter?
Roger J Kerr says the sentiment towards, and direction of, the US dollar currency value remains firmly negative
23rd Jan 23, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the sentiment towards, and direction of, the US dollar currency value remains firmly negative
Our central bank is picking that inflation will have hit a new 32-year high of 7.5% when December quarter figures are released in the coming week. If it's right, expect a further hefty 75 point rise to the Official Cash Rate next month
22nd Jan 23, 6:00am
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Our central bank is picking that inflation will have hit a new 32-year high of 7.5% when December quarter figures are released in the coming week. If it's right, expect a further hefty 75 point rise to the Official Cash Rate next month
[updated]
Stats NZ says the seasonally adjusted spending fall in December was the first for nine months and was a 'large' fall for a December month; economists say consumers have taken on board Reserve Bank warnings about spending
18th Jan 23, 11:00am
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Stats NZ says the seasonally adjusted spending fall in December was the first for nine months and was a 'large' fall for a December month; economists say consumers have taken on board Reserve Bank warnings about spending
[updated]
National's finance spokesperson scalds Government after long-running NZIER business survey records the weakest result in its history; ASB economists say economy has 'run into a brick wall'; BNZ economists see 'stagflation on steroids'
17th Jan 23, 10:23am
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National's finance spokesperson scalds Government after long-running NZIER business survey records the weakest result in its history; ASB economists say economy has 'run into a brick wall'; BNZ economists see 'stagflation on steroids'
David Hargreaves has a quick check on the temperature of the economy with a recap of where we left off in 2022 as we now look towards what appears likely to be a very fast start to things financial in 2023
16th Jan 23, 11:43am
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David Hargreaves has a quick check on the temperature of the economy with a recap of where we left off in 2022 as we now look towards what appears likely to be a very fast start to things financial in 2023