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Reader poll

Not until some time next year.
39% (36 votes)
Before the end of 2014.
34% (32 votes)
It won't, this tightening cycle is done and dusted.
27% (25 votes)
Total voters: 93

When do you think the Reserve Bank will resume increasing the Official Cash Rate?

Older polls

Inflation

NZ swap curve steepened

US data pushed NZ yields higher, then RBA comments dampened them, ahead of more 'positive surprise' US data

US 10-year yields pushed up to 2.62%

NZBG 2027 priced at low end of expected range; ADP jobs reports raises expectations for NFPs tomorrow

USD remains under intense pressure

Yield chasing investors supporting NZD; USD vulnerable to any negative news

Mortgage fixing underpins swaps

NZBG 2027 syndication launched; AU markets pricing in more of a chance of an RBA cut; UST yields rise

Momentum in the NZ economy slowing

Slowdown may draw offshore receivers back into local fixed income markets; eyes on RBA rate policy settings

NZ swaps down, NZ bonds down more

Plenty of receiving interest notes BNZ, and that caps the steady mortgage demand for fixing

Questions unanswered, consequences unintended

Roger J Kerr points to seven things that just do not add up, seemingly showing that markets seem unable to price risk properly

Another intervention opportunity for the RBNZ

Roger J Kerr is frustrated the kiwi dollar remains so high for exporters, especially as the RBNZ spurns every opportunity to encourage realignment to more sustainable levels

NZ swaps up, US bonds down

NZ swap still below fair value. Expect swap-bond spreads to widen towards 55 bps, says BNZ

UST 10yr yields sink

NZ swap rates meander as markets await signals from the US Fed and BofE's Carney, US bond yields fall then partly recover