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US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
12th Dec 23, 7:45am
US Treasury yields push higher amidst a heavy supply week, yields up 4-5bps. Key US CPI report tonight. Yen falls on chatter the BofJ in no special hurry to scrap negative rates
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Heartland tweaks Notice Savers higher, immigration angst in NZ & AU, POT selldown starts, swaps firm, NZD on hold, & more
11th Dec 23, 4:00pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Heartland tweaks Notice Savers higher, immigration angst in NZ & AU, POT selldown starts, swaps firm, NZD on hold, & more
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
2
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
US labour market data was stronger than expected in November. US treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained snapping a 3-week loosing streak. China consumer price inflation fell 0.5%, the fastest decline in 3-years amid weak domestic demand
11th Dec 23, 7:43am
US labour market data was stronger than expected in November. US treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained snapping a 3-week loosing streak. China consumer price inflation fell 0.5%, the fastest decline in 3-years amid weak domestic demand
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes; Q3 factory and retail data weak, jobs strong, focus on value not nice-to-haves, swaps on hold, NZD retreats, & more
8th Dec 23, 3:59pm
43
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes; Q3 factory and retail data weak, jobs strong, focus on value not nice-to-haves, swaps on hold, NZD retreats, & more
The yen has strengthened and JGB yields moved sharply higher following Bank of Japan signals of an exit from their large-scale stimulus and negative interest rates
8th Dec 23, 7:47am
4
The yen has strengthened and JGB yields moved sharply higher following Bank of Japan signals of an exit from their large-scale stimulus and negative interest rates
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; some minor home loan and TD changes, Fonterra raises milk payout forecast, rates surge, swaps and NZD hold, and more
7th Dec 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; some minor home loan and TD changes, Fonterra raises milk payout forecast, rates surge, swaps and NZD hold, and more
ASB economists estimate that average household living costs will have increased by about $115 a week in 2023 - and with a further $70 hike to come next year, but income rises will probably beat that
7th Dec 23, 10:30am
42
ASB economists estimate that average household living costs will have increased by about $115 a week in 2023 - and with a further $70 hike to come next year, but income rises will probably beat that
Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
7th Dec 23, 7:52am
1
Lower oil prices and US employment data help extend the global bond market rally, led by the long end. Rates down to fresh multi-month lows. But muted price action for US equities and currency
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; positive dairy auction, Barfoot transaction levels rise, few vegetarians, NZU auction fizzes, swaps soft, NZD firm, & more
6th Dec 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; positive dairy auction, Barfoot transaction levels rise, few vegetarians, NZU auction fizzes, swaps soft, NZD firm, & more
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
6th Dec 23, 8:08am
RBA leaves policy unchanged, keeps weak tightening bias, disappointing the hawks and sending their rates and AUD lower. ECB's Schnabel turns from hawkish to dovish, sending European rates much lower. Spillover effects on US Treasuries
[updated]
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, construction slows, rentals boost vehicle sales, company taxes sag, commodity prices soften, swaps hold, NZD dips, & more
5th Dec 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, construction slows, rentals boost vehicle sales, company taxes sag, commodity prices soften, swaps hold, NZD dips, & more
Governor Adrian Orr explains what the Reserve Bank needs to see to have real confidence inflation pressures are easing off
5th Dec 23, 8:30am
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Governor Adrian Orr explains what the Reserve Bank needs to see to have real confidence inflation pressures are easing off
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
5th Dec 23, 7:54am
Recent price action reverses, with US Treasury yields up 10-12bps from last week's close. Risk appetite weaker, with US equities down and USD broadly stronger
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes; terms of trade hold, services rise again, NZX50 promotion-relegation, swaps & NZD hold, gold at ATH, & more
4th Dec 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; no retail rate changes; terms of trade hold, services rise again, NZX50 promotion-relegation, swaps & NZD hold, gold at ATH, & more
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
4th Dec 23, 7:40am
A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell failed to deter investors’ expectations of rate cuts. Market pricing implies a greater than 50% chance of a 25bps rate c weakness. Oil prices fall after OPEC+ members delay meeting in dispute about output quotas
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, low confidence improves, high stocks rise, low stress rises, swaps up, NZD firms, & more
1st Dec 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, low confidence improves, high stocks rise, low stress rises, swaps up, NZD firms, & more
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
1st Dec 23, 7:54am
US treasury yields moved higher across the curve and the US dollar gained. Eurozone CPI fell to slowest pace since 2021. OPEC+ confirms supply cuts
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; building consents struggle, confidence honeymoon extends, NZGBs popular, TDs very popular, swaps stable, NZD reverts, & more
30th Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; building consents struggle, confidence honeymoon extends, NZGBs popular, TDs very popular, swaps stable, NZD reverts, & more
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
30th Nov 23, 7:53am
Global bond market rally extends; US 10-year rate down to low of 4.25%. Market sceptical of RBNZ's higher-for-longer rate track; only modest lift in domestic rates and NZD reverses course overnight
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; OCR unchanged by hawkish RBNZ; smaller bank profits under pressure; FHBs reticent; swaps jump; NZD jumps, & more
29th Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; OCR unchanged by hawkish RBNZ; smaller bank profits under pressure; FHBs reticent; swaps jump; NZD jumps, & more
[updated]
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
29th Nov 23, 2:20pm
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Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% but warns if inflation proves stronger than expected it may have to hike the OCR again
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
29th Nov 23, 7:56am
Fed speaker conveys on-hold policy message, "increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned", signals path to easier policy next year - just what the bond market wanted to hear
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rates changes, strong worker inflows, wind generation capacity important now, solid payroll growth, swaps lower, NZD stable, & more
28th Nov 23, 3:59pm
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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rates changes, strong worker inflows, wind generation capacity important now, solid payroll growth, swaps lower, NZD stable, & more