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OCR

David Hargreaves says inflation data due to be released within two weeks will absolutely be crucial in deciding whether the Reserve Bank hikes interest rates again before Christmas
5th Oct 23, 9:21am
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David Hargreaves says inflation data due to be released within two weeks will absolutely be crucial in deciding whether the Reserve Bank hikes interest rates again before Christmas
Global bond yields pulled back from multi-year highs. The ADP estimate of US private non-farm payrolls lower than consensus estimates. Oil prices fell to the lowest level since early September
5th Oct 23, 7:50am
Global bond yields pulled back from multi-year highs. The ADP estimate of US private non-farm payrolls lower than consensus estimates. Oil prices fell to the lowest level since early September
The Monetary Policy Committee agreed that higher oil prices will add to inflation risk but interest rates are high enough for now
4th Oct 23, 2:37pm
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The Monetary Policy Committee agreed that higher oil prices will add to inflation risk but interest rates are high enough for now
Independent economic researchers Capital Economics say it is 'increasingly clear' monetary policy tightening is doing its work and the rate-hiking cycle is already over, with cuts coming next year
4th Oct 23, 11:21am
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Independent economic researchers Capital Economics say it is 'increasingly clear' monetary policy tightening is doing its work and the rate-hiking cycle is already over, with cuts coming next year
Stronger than expected US JOLTS report sends US 10-year rate up to fresh highs and pushes USD DXY index up to fresh YTD high; yen jittery
4th Oct 23, 7:54am
Stronger than expected US JOLTS report sends US 10-year rate up to fresh highs and pushes USD DXY index up to fresh YTD high; yen jittery
Economists are cheered by signs the Reserve Bank's monetary tightening is getting traction but caution that inflationary pressures are still strong
3rd Oct 23, 2:01pm
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Economists are cheered by signs the Reserve Bank's monetary tightening is getting traction but caution that inflationary pressures are still strong
The latest survey of business opinion from NZIER shows fewer firms are feeling negative
3rd Oct 23, 10:17am
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The latest survey of business opinion from NZIER shows fewer firms are feeling negative
Latest RBNZ figures show while overall non-performing loans climbed in August, household mortgage stress didn't get any worse
3rd Oct 23, 8:14am
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Latest RBNZ figures show while overall non-performing loans climbed in August, household mortgage stress didn't get any worse
Surprise weekend resolution to avoid US government shutdown and stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing survey add to upside pressure on rates. Fresh highs in yields and steeper curves; US 10-year rate cracks 4.7% before market finds support
3rd Oct 23, 7:48am
Surprise weekend resolution to avoid US government shutdown and stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing survey add to upside pressure on rates. Fresh highs in yields and steeper curves; US 10-year rate cracks 4.7% before market finds support
Global markets were generally subdued into month-end after large losses for bonds and equities during September. Further signs of easing price pressures in the US and Eurozone
2nd Oct 23, 7:43am
Global markets were generally subdued into month-end after large losses for bonds and equities during September. Further signs of easing price pressures in the US and Eurozone
David Hargreaves examines the Reserve Bank's forthcoming Official Cash Rate review and says observers will be looking very hard for any clues at all as to whether the central bank is moving from its current 'on hold' stance with interest rates
1st Oct 23, 6:00am
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David Hargreaves examines the Reserve Bank's forthcoming Official Cash Rate review and says observers will be looking very hard for any clues at all as to whether the central bank is moving from its current 'on hold' stance with interest rates
UK gilts sell-off leads another bout of higher rates around the world and fresh cycle highs; US 10-year rate up to 4.69% before reversing course. Progress in UAW and carmaker wage negotiations, and improving US/China talks support risk appetite
29th Sep 23, 7:53am
UK gilts sell-off leads another bout of higher rates around the world and fresh cycle highs; US 10-year rate up to 4.69% before reversing course. Progress in UAW and carmaker wage negotiations, and improving US/China talks support risk appetite
Global long-term rates up to fresh cycle highs; US 10-year reaches 4.63%, curve steepens further; US equities continue to fall. Oil prices up 3% to fresh highs for the year as US crude inventories running low
28th Sep 23, 8:00am
Global long-term rates up to fresh cycle highs; US 10-year reaches 4.63%, curve steepens further; US equities continue to fall. Oil prices up 3% to fresh highs for the year as US crude inventories running low
The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index has turned negative for the first time in two-and-a-half years
27th Sep 23, 9:09am
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The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index has turned negative for the first time in two-and-a-half years
US Treasury yields trade near cycle highs with little net movement overnight; Global forces send NZ rates up to fresh highs yesterday. USD broadly stronger, but only small moves overall
27th Sep 23, 7:53am
US Treasury yields trade near cycle highs with little net movement overnight; Global forces send NZ rates up to fresh highs yesterday. USD broadly stronger, but only small moves overall
Global bond market sell-off returns - US and German 10-year rates up to fresh highs; steeper curves evident, with US2s10s at four-month high. China's Evergrande woes return. China property stocks lower, yuan softer; global metal prices weaker
26th Sep 23, 7:45am
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Global bond market sell-off returns - US and German 10-year rates up to fresh highs; steeper curves evident, with US2s10s at four-month high. China's Evergrande woes return. China property stocks lower, yuan softer; global metal prices weaker
ANZ economists have raised their forecast of house price growth and now see a 4% rise for the second half of this year
25th Sep 23, 2:36pm
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ANZ economists have raised their forecast of house price growth and now see a 4% rise for the second half of this year
US equities fall for four consecutive days, third consecutive week. UST yields reverse course. BoJ maintains ultra-easy policy with Governor Ueda dovish; yen weakens back to near 10-month low
25th Sep 23, 8:34am
US equities fall for four consecutive days, third consecutive week. UST yields reverse course. BoJ maintains ultra-easy policy with Governor Ueda dovish; yen weakens back to near 10-month low
[updated]
Westpac's 6% nine month TD rate shifts a main bank into the heart of where savers want to commit for term savings, and close to where challenger banks have already gone
25th Sep 23, 8:03am
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Westpac's 6% nine month TD rate shifts a main bank into the heart of where savers want to commit for term savings, and close to where challenger banks have already gone
Global curves steeper in the wake of the Fed's hawkish-hold; BoE and Swiss National Bank opt to keep rates on hold. Fresh highs for 10-year rates across the US, Germany, Japan NZ and others. US 10-year rate just shy of 4.5%
22nd Sep 23, 7:49am
Global curves steeper in the wake of the Fed's hawkish-hold; BoE and Swiss National Bank opt to keep rates on hold. Fresh highs for 10-year rates across the US, Germany, Japan NZ and others. US 10-year rate just shy of 4.5%
The US Federal Reserve upwardly revised growth forecasts, the updated quarterly projections signalled one further 25bp hike this year and notably reduced the amount of easing for 2024
21st Sep 23, 7:54am
The US Federal Reserve upwardly revised growth forecasts, the updated quarterly projections signalled one further 25bp hike this year and notably reduced the amount of easing for 2024
Global rates push higher. Nerves ahead of Fed meeting in 24 hours, much higher than expected Canadian CPI inflation data and higher oil prices not helping. Further recovery in global dairy prices at the overnight GDT auction
20th Sep 23, 7:49am
Global rates push higher. Nerves ahead of Fed meeting in 24 hours, much higher than expected Canadian CPI inflation data and higher oil prices not helping. Further recovery in global dairy prices at the overnight GDT auction
BNZ chief economist estimates the average annual expense associated with buying the median NZ home currently exceeds the cost of renting by just over $38,000 a year
19th Sep 23, 11:46am
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BNZ chief economist estimates the average annual expense associated with buying the median NZ home currently exceeds the cost of renting by just over $38,000 a year
A quiet start to a busy week, with Fed, BoE and BoJ meetings later in the week. US Treasuries curve flattens; BIS warns of growing leverage in the market
19th Sep 23, 7:51am
A quiet start to a busy week, with Fed, BoE and BoJ meetings later in the week. US Treasuries curve flattens; BIS warns of growing leverage in the market
US equities ended last week on a soft note led by technology stocks. US inflation expectations fell more than expected. Better then expected activity data in China provided a temporary boost for Australasian currencies
18th Sep 23, 7:45am
US equities ended last week on a soft note led by technology stocks. US inflation expectations fell more than expected. Better then expected activity data in China provided a temporary boost for Australasian currencies