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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Thursday, May 19, 2016

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Thursday, May 19, 2016

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6732 (mid-rate) this morning, down 1.2% from the same time yesterday.

The NZD is down after a sell-off in commodity prices and a surprise from the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes.

The Fed policymakers see a rate hike coming as early as June, according to the April meeting minutes. It's the most telling sign yet that the Fed plans to tighten in the near future, as inflation is picking and jobs growth is on the rise.

The Fed hiked interest rates in December for the first time in almost a decade to a range of 0.25% to 0.5%, but has since relented on further hikes amid global economic headwinds and another winter's lull in the U.S. recovery.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending the 13th May came in at 1.3 million Barrels better that the -3.4m last week and -3.1m expected. Gasoline -2.5m and Distillates -3.2m will be the biggest contributing factor to slow the selling of Crude going into next week.

U.K. Unemployment rate stayed at 5.1% better than 5.6% for the same time last year. The Average Weekly Earnings for employees were up 2% from 1.9% last and 1.7% expected. The Kiwi finished down 2% against the Pound

Overnight we have the U.S. Unemployment claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and U.K Retail Sales while will be the main drivers for the direction of our currency.

Global equity markets are broadly lower:  Dow -0.28%, S&P 500 -0.23%, FTSE -0.03%, DAX +0.54%, CAC -+0.51%, Nikkei -0.05%, Shanghai -1.27%.

Gold prices are down sharply -$19 (-1.5%) currently trading at $1259 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil down 0.9% currently trading at $48.11 a barrel

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD       0.6732      -1.2%
NZDEUR       0.5998      -0.2%
NZDGBP       0.4615      -2.0%
NZDJPY        74.11        -0.1%
NZDAUD       0.9317       0.2%
NZDCAD       0.8753      -0.4%


 

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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