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Weekly Agridata report: Chinese demand for velvet; beef and lamb prices firming

Posted in News

interest.co.nz has a sister on-line publication agridata.co.nz which follows rural issues of interest to working farmers. We are working to draw the two services closer together, and this project will be launched later in the year. In the meantime, here is Agridata's latest weekly review of farm-gate prices and price influencers. Deer The velvet market is in an awkward dilemma with Chinese demand unsatisfied for regrowth, spiker and manufacturing grades, but they show little interest in NZ's heavier sticks. To survive farmers have lifted stick weights substantially, and now a large portion of production is in the A and super grades. Korea is the main market for these, and with recent demand flat, producers are having to be patient as the product is steadily sold, in a bid to maintain price, and build long term business.

With the small number of deer being killed, and the frozen market reported to be slow because of lower priced competing proteins, exporters report that some of the schedule price is procurement driven. Processing numbers are back 22%, and plant efficency is an issue as companies strive to be profitable, and yet still reflect a sustainable price in the schedule. Industry growth forecasts show it will be a few years yet before numbers return to previous levels. The latest deer schedule prices are here >> Beef Prices are still firming in the US under the familiar themes of strong domestic values and tight imported supplies (Australian imports are down 43% compared to a year ago). Strong US grinding beef prices are seen in our bull beef schedule which is now only a couple of cents from the yearly high, and has lifted a massive 65c/kg from the spring lows. Those bull producers that had feed and decided to put on weight to compensate for the poor spring schedule will be pleased with how prices have lifted. The prime schedule is more subdued but also has recovered well from the "˜recession blues'. Saleyard and local trade prime steers have been tracking slightly ahead of export schedules, with South Island prices lower than in the north. You can find the latest beef price reports and trends here >> Lamb Lamb schedules remained firm in the north, but steady in the south, as the supply shortages have held processing back by about 15% on last year. The summer weather has arrived late in many areas and from March the lamb flow will readjust quickly. Store lamb prices continue to surprise by their strength, with some farmers obviously very optimistic about the schedule rising in the late autumn and winter. Compared to last year prime lamb schedules are $7-8 behind, but many store lamb prices are similar. Mutton prices are quite strong for this time of year, reflecting both a lack of supply due to the dairy expansion and previous droughts, and an earlier kill for many cull ewes. The latest lamb schedule prices are here >> Wool The wool market eased again, as farmers excited by better values, offered 28% more wool than was rostered, and with a shortage of shipping capacity, supply exceeded demand, and values dropped. The weaker currency minimised the drop but this sale showed that the recent lift in prices could be flaky unless well managed. You can find the latest wool price reports and trends here >> Dairy World dairy prices continued to trade downwards but fortunately European prices are still well above levels that would result in product going into storage. A rationalisation of UK dairy interests is being investigated as their small dairy companies struggle against larger global competitors. NZ producers that decided many years ago to form Fonterra will relate to the UK position, and be comforted by the global position that company is now in. With another small dairy processor gaining consents to operate in the south this week lets hope the industry is not reinventing the wheel, with too many small companies competing for milk.

For more detailed news and information about rural issues, and animal and feed prices, visit www.agridata.co.nz

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

15 Comments

Export lamb prices rise....so do

Export lamb prices rise....so do the prices here in NZ.

Who in NZ still eats

Who in NZ still eats that rubbish , Wally ?

Its only part of the

Its only part of the story as always. The beef price is up because the works are out of stock,this goes for lamb too. I got a ring this afternoon from a friend who is on the chain, out of work wants vineyard job. Many farmers with beef have held onto stock as they had trouble replacing at a margin that kept the bank happy. Now they are growing animals bigger but so are the replacements and the store market for bulls is very strong up 30c a kg live weight. The lamb price is higher but stock numbers are way down.
Why would you want a monopoly in the UK to get monopoly rent out of the domestic market? The EU already has sizable mountains of milk powder and the US is about to become an exporter too.
The returns from farming are inadequate to say the least and 'where to now' is the big question.

And if you want to

And if you want to know the effect on the wine industry of a lower drink driving limit, look to France where there was a substantial drop in wine consumption.

What a sinful thing to

What a sinful thing to post RT...shame on you...try some SFF lamb pack meat and cook it properly...none of that overdoing the meat mate. When the shit hits the fan and you are deep underground in your bomb shelter and not a spare rib in sight for months....mouth watering lamb with a little mint sauce and baby spuds with a gob of butter...bet you'd woof it down!

[ grew up on a

[ grew up on a sheep & cropping farm . may have overdosed on lamb & mutton . don't miss not having it anymore . .......... . a nice gummy bear steak , yummy , now that's haute cusine ! ]

Cooking lamb, and indeed mutton

Cooking lamb, and indeed mutton - 'there are reasonable alternatives' (TARA) A single focus on one sort of cooking method (inflation targeting) is bound to make you feel yuk - TINA. Roger - please list the methods used on 'Thompson Station'. Did you use any R.O.S.E.M.A.R.Y?

Please read in the context of my past comments - and try to sink a Tui for each one before replying to this one.

(Sorry Walter, no offence, just think of it as profile for our cause.)

Cheers, Les.

Just sunk a bunch of

Just sunk a bunch of XXXX's in the cricket , Les .

Dairy heifer and cow prices

Dairy heifer and cow prices still holding up well in South and Mid Canterbury (R2 heifers to $1300-$1400, cows to $1700). Although the strong demand confuses me.

What about in the North Island?

Interesting about the proposed rationalisation

Interesting about the proposed rationalisation in the UK and NZs purported position of strength. How does this support the NZ governments position on the NZ dairy industry, in particular the DIRA (considering former and current politicians have significant investment in the industry).

MH Its crazy out there.

MH
Its crazy out there. Demand is very strong across all classes.

MH A banker I recently

MH A banker I recently spoke to says their limit is $1300 for cows and said some farmers (not just dairy) are too optimistic about the future! The demand for dairy is being fuelled by more China farms. Still conversions coming on stream though fewer than in previous years.

Where is the meat going

Where is the meat going to? I notice fillet steak has dropped back from $42 to $36...yet chicken is now $20....retail...

There were comments that at $147US a barrel for oil that shed raised cattle and hogs etc were not economic....so there was large scale slaughtering.....are we now seeing NZ beef rebound or at least stable because there are shortages elsewhere pushing up prices?

regards

AJ & CO: yes crazy.

AJ & CO: yes crazy. Interesting to hear the banker limit: I guess it's one thing to see the quotes (such as on Agridata - great site by the way Bernard/Tony) but it would be interesting to know how many transactions are actually happening at the higher levels.

"Its crazy out there. Demand

"Its crazy out there. Demand is very strong across all classes."

Because the sheep, beef, deer numbers are down and the meat Co-ops have fixed assets they need to keep busy.