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Top 10 at 10 to 11: Sneaky German plan to bail out Greeks; Gareth v Huljich; Peak oil; Dilbert

Posted in News

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 to 11. I welcome your additions and comments below or please send suggestions for Tuesday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz

Dilbert.com

1. Huljich hots up - The debate over the Huljich KiwiSaver funds performance affair is getting hotter by the week. Gareth Morgan, who runs a competing KiwiSaver fund, came out in the Sunday Star Times on the weekend and said Peter Huljich was not fit to be a fund manager and our securities regulators lack "gonads". Gareth rarely fails to tell us what he really thinks. Rob Stock also has a nice piece citing AMP's concerns about a two-tier market developing. Here's Gareth teeing off again.

Peter Huljich has admitted to manipulating returns figures. What he did was tell lies about his performance in order to instil confidence in prospective investors in the Hiljuch KiwiSaver funds. As such, in my opinion, he is totally unfit to be a KiwiSaver provider. The only issue really from here is whether the regulators between them have the gonads to deal with him appropriately. So far they have demonstrated a decided lack of bottle. And we wonder why New Zealanders have so little confidence in our financial markets.

When it is possible to manipulate figures and get away with it like this, New Zealanders are absolutely rational to shun our capital markets. They are not free markets at all, they are stacked in favour of men such as Huljich.

2. Peak oil - New Plymouth engineer John de Bueger writes in the ODT about peak oil, saying Mining Minister Gerry Brownlee needs to be more aware of 'peak oil' and prepare for it. He points to a recent report by the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security HT Matt Strachan via email.

In this respect Gerry is exhibiting the archetypal behavioural response of the caveman - a condition I hasten to add that he shares with 95% of the human race, and 100% of politicians. That is a total inability to rationally weigh the seriousness of future risks against pressing short-term expediency. This human character flaw stems from primordial days when surviving an attack from circling sabre tooth tigers was higher up the do-list than laying in stores for the coming winter.

Given human greed and frailty, it isn't surprising that the majority of the world's population remain utterly indifferent to the looming energy crisis, but one might have hoped that an Energy Minister would know better.

Related Topics

Given the gravity of the looming energy situation, and the relatively minor returns likely to be achieved by mining in the national parks, instead of poking a stick into a hornet's nest, it would make more sense if the Government set up a similar review body to fully analyse the implications of peak oil on this country.

3. 'Vee haf vays of bailing you out' - The FT is reporting that Germany's biggest banks are looking at a rescue plan for Greece under which they would buy Greek debt backed by financial guarantees from Berlin. This is all very clever. German voters wouldn't directly be handing cash over to the Greeks. Instead their sometimes privately owned banks would do it, with a guarantee from the state. This all seems a bit too cute. I can't imagine it will get through the firestorm of public and shareholder protest unscathed. It also depends on the Greeks delivering credible cuts in spending. Here's the Bloomberg version.

One senior German bank official said serious thought was being given to a plan for the German government, working through KfW, its development bank, to issue guarantees to banks that bought Greek debt.

Several such banks, including Hypo Real Estate, Eurohypo and Deutsche Postbank, which hold billions of euros of Greek debt, all said they would not increase their holdings. However, guarantees from Berlin for what could be high-yielding debt might soften their stance.

4. Watch out for California - Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan Chase, has warned that California could be more of a problem for US banks than Greece, the Telegraph reported.

Mr Dimon told investors at the Wall Street bank's annual meeting that "there could be contagion" if a state the size of California, the biggest of the United States, had problems making debt repayments. "Greece itself would not be an issue for this company, nor would any other country," said Mr Dimon. "We don't really foresee the European Union coming apart." The senior banker said that JP Morgan Chase and other US rivals are largely immune from the European debt crisis, as the risks have largely been hedged.

5. In a similar vein - The FT has an indepth piece on the fiscal problems in the US states. Luckily for the states, they haven't built up debts because most have balanced budgets laws, but they're not out of the woods.

"For US states, it is not a debt problem, it is a spending problem," says Peter Hayes, head of the municipal bond group at BlackRock. "The length and depth of the downturn is so much greater than anything we have seen that states cannot cut spending fast enough and they cannot really raise taxes further."

The concern is that the belt-tightening could hamper the national US economic recovery, one reason that individual states are being supported by the federal government through its stimulus programme.

The economic downturn has decimated tax collections, ripping large holes in budgets that state lawmakers have slashed spending to plug. Last week, new research showed that states also face a gap of at least $1,000bn for pension and healthcare pledges to state workers.

Similarities have been drawn between US states and some eurozone members because they are grappling with an global economic slowdown and large budget deficits. With warnings from states from New York to California that they are running out of cash or suspending bill payments, it is logical to ask whether they will default "“ the same question that Greece is facing.

6. The dangers of auto-taxes - Eric Felten writes at the Wall St Journal about how people are much less aware of the size of tolls and taxes when they are raised 'automatically' through electronic collection or 'Pay as you earn' rather than through a more manual method.

Technologies sold on convenience can prove to be awfully convenient for those setting prices. Consider electronic toll collection systems such as E-ZPass that let drivers blow past highway tollbooths. How wonderful to no longer have to wait in infuriating lines to pay our traffic tribute. And yet, zipping past the toll plaza, how many of us give a thought to how much we were just charged?

Could it be that our new electronically induced ignorance gives a green light to those who would super-size the fees? That's the question that MIT economist Amy Finkelstein asked in a recent study of toll-collection nationwide. She found that there was "a strikingly lower awareness of the amount paid in tolls by those who pay electronically," and thus, not surprisingly, that "toll rates increase after the adoption of electronic toll collection," usually by 20% to 40%.

7. Yuan appreciation test? - Reuters reports from a Chinese newspaper that the government has done some stress testing on what a yuan appreciation might do for exporters' profits. Is this an initial step before the inevitable revaluation that many Western economists are saying is needed and imminent? I have my doubts the Chinese will buckle. They haven't before and they are mercantilists to their bones.

The newspaper cited industry sources as saying that the results of the test, conducted jointly by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, would serve as a reference for the government's future yuan policy.

It added that these tests did not mean that Beijing was about to let the yuan appreciate, having frozen it in place against the dollar since mid-2008 as the government has tried to cushion exporters from the global financial crisis.

Nevertheless, the report marks a rare discussion in Chinese media about the feasible scope for yuan appreciation and comes amid rising speculation that Beijing may be on the verge of allowing yuan appreciation to resume.

According to the initial results of the tests, which focussed on textile, garment, shoe and toy exporters, every percentage point of yuan appreciation would erode one percentage point of their profit margin. This would be a serious blow to profitability since their net profit margin is often only 3 to 5 percent, the newspaper said.

8. A lucky country? - FT heavyweight Edward Chancellor writes about Australia's over-valued housing market here.

Australia may have been fortunate. But it is not out of the woods. For a start, the real estate market remains in bubble territory. Australian home prices are currently some 70 per cent above their long-term trend level. A recent survey by Demographia International finds that all of Australia's major housing markets were valued at more than five times average incomes, and defines them as "severely unaffordable." Initial mortgage payments for a home in Sydney or Melbourne are likely to exceed half of your disposable income, claims Demographia. The Australian housing market looks vulnerable to further rate rises.

Aussie house prices have not fallen since the early 1950s. A certain complacency is therefore understandable. Yet not long ago many Americans also believed that domestic home prices could never fall. So far Australia has avoided its day of reckoning. But how long will the lucky country's luck last?

9. Totally relevant video - Jon Stewart does his thing at The Daily Show.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Make it Rain - Bank of America
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Political Humor Vancouverage 2010

10. Totally irrelevant video - Some interesting facts about the Internet.

JESS3 / The State of The Internet from Jesse Thomas on Vimeo.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

36 Comments

One more to add Ambrose

One more to add
Ambrose Evans Pritchard on the global credit squeeze and some juicy details from Illinois.

The state has been paying bills with unfunded vouchers since October. A fifth of buses have stopped. Libraries, owed $400m (£263m), are closing one day a week. Schools are owed $725m. Unable to pay teachers, they are preparing mass lay-offs. "It's a catastrophe", said the Schools Superintedent.
In Alexander County, the sheriff's patrol cars have been repossessed; three-quarters of his officers are laid off; the local prison has refused to take county inmates until debts are paid.

The West risks a slow grind into debt-deflation unless central banks offset fiscal tightening with monetary stimulus "“ QE, of course "“ to keep demand alive. Yet the Fed and the European Central Bank are letting credit contract.
Bank loans in the US have fallen at a 14pc rate this year, caused in part by Basel III rules pushing banks to raise capital ratios.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/733885...

HT Steven Jones via email

cheers
Bernard

I dont think any amount

I dont think any amount of printing can create the demand. Caught up with a friend of mine on the weekend whos a rep for one of the major surf/snow labels, tells me things are slower/worse then 12 months ago. I think everyone is busy paying off debt!!

Meanwhile the banks in Noddyville

Meanwhile the banks in Noddyville are busy with the adverts encouraging more peasants to take on more debt to pork the property bubble to save the banks from making losses on their past efforts to blow a bubble.....bloody madness.

Wally - yes, anything to

Wally - yes, anything to keep the parasitic, too big to fail, 'Boomers' Ponzi Economy' alive, sadly at the expense of Gen XY and the 'Real Economy'. (Neat phrasing 'Jacko') How to fix? Difficult, but not impossible. No, hang on, I take that back, given who, what is and has been governs us - impossible.

You're onto it Les....look after

You're onto it Les....look after number one mate...expect poor govt and you will not be surprised. Look at the behaviour of the peasants when warned of a Tsunami...rushed down to the beach for a gork...any wonder then that this country is fit for the economic tip. With a peasantry that behaves like that...you can run a ponzi scheme for ever and a day.

That's a great John de

That's a great John de Bueger piece. Spot on.

But also in the ODT, is a Loughrey piece, re the Mayor and CEO of Dunedin City Council, defending their loading of debt on the coming generation(s).

Someone should have thoughht before he 'reported'. If de Bueger is right (let's face it, he is) then the debt can't/won't be repaid.

Whish is intergenerational fraud.

We need the NZ media to raise it's game urgently, and address the big picture.

I'm a bit sick of reports of 'growth' and 'green shoots' and 'surveys of business optimism' being foist on these bunnies who then apply their ignorance (which is no excuse, last I heard) to projects like sdadiums, rather than looking at sustainable infrastructure.

Come on, fourth estate - so far you're missing in action, and it's us 'opinion types' doing what should be your job. Every scribe in

That's a great John de

That's a great John de Bueger piece. Spot on.

But also in the ODT, is a Loughrey piece, re the Mayor and CEO of Dunedin City Council, defending their loading of debt on the coming generation(s).

Someone should have thought before he 'reported'. If de Bueger is right (and, let's face it, he is) then the debt can't/won't be repaid.

Which is intergenerational fraud.

We need the NZ media to raise it's game urgently, and address the big picture.

I'm a bit sick of reports of 'growth' and 'green shoots' and 'surveys of business optimism' being foist on these bunnies who then apply their ignorance (which is no excuse, last I heard) to projects like stadiums, rather than looking at sustainable infrastructure.

Come on, fourth estate - so far you're missing in action, and it's us 'opinion types' doing what should be your job. Every scribe in New Zealand should read that de Bueger piece, and apply it to all their appraisals, and for that matter, to their interview questions.

Wally - am getting more

Wally - am getting more and more to that view. It really is depressing sometimes to think how the cycle/s might be broken/stopped without major pain, and then whether any real learning and system change might eventuate. Am not holding my breathe! Your tsunami point, yep, it appears a few need to drown to actually understand, by experience, the risks.

In a good few ways, we just don't seem capable of learning by observing the experience of others do we.

"The only issue really from

"The only issue really from here is whether the regulators between them have the gonads to deal with him appropriately. So far they have demonstrated a decided lack of bottle."

Mmmm, bottled gonads.

With their interest rates steadily

With their interest rates steadily rising, it'll be interesting to keep an eye on the Australian mortgagee sales statistics. Lucky country they may be, but people are inclined to overextend in any environment, and their housing is even more superheated than ours. Could be a preview of what we have to come.

It's interesting to read the Westpac Australia Private Credit report at:
http://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/investor-centre/analysts-centre/...

"Housing credit growth remains solid but not strong, running at an
8.4% annualised pace over the last three months. Owner-occupier
credit has slowed a little since October to a 9.1% annualised pace
in January, as policy stimulus is reduced. Importantly, the housing
cycle upswing is evolving as expected, with investors returning in
greater numbers. Investor housing credit growth is now almost 7%
annualised and rising."

Investor growth - it's like they're off to the races again! Though still a shadow of the past. Still, can't end well...

Aussie mortgagee sales statistics seem to be hard to come by - anyone know of any sources?

Bernard - did you see

Bernard - did you see Simon Botherway's peice on the GFC on Stuff. Simon is a highly respected NZ fund manager and he thoughts that we ain't seen nothing yet in terms of the global crisis are consistent with what you have been asying and the articles in this post...

She's ready to blow Captain

She's ready to blow Captain
Italy caught cooking the books as well

"In other words, cooking the public debt books in the EU started not with Greece and Goldman in 2001, but with Italy and Counteparty N in 1995; we are fully confident that many more examples will emerge shortly.

How widespread is this sort of financial chicanery among sovereign borrowers? It is very difficult to know, since these deals are done over the counter with no public paper trail. Gustavo Piga, author of the ISMA/ CFR report, uncovered the Italian transaction quite accidentally. But there are powerful reasons for concern.

First, governments have clear incentives to cook the books. The EU continues to impose fiscal expenditure restrictions on eurozone governments, violation of which can result in censure and fines. The International Monetary Fund imposes fiscal conditionality on its client governments, which naturally have a strong incentive to keep the Fund from closing the money spigot. Derivatives can be used to shuffle cash flows through time in ways that current accounting rules do not prevent.

Second, banks are only too willing to market derivatives tricks to their big client governments, particularly when it puts them at the front of the queue for future bond issues and privatisations.

Third, if the integrity of government financial data is fatally undermined, the damage to stock and bond markets will dwarf the "Enron effect" that has recently pummelled the Dow"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/step-aside-greece-how-gustavo-piga-expo...

This is not gonna end

This is not gonna end well.
Governments trying to encouragement people to borrow more by supplying ever cheaper credit through QE.
Australians off to the wacky races again with property ponzi pie.
People need to live within their means. Growth of spending beyond incomes cannot last forever because, as a few governments are finding out, eventually the cost of servicing the debt overtakes income (a debt spiral).
Greece is in trouble because they spend more than they can afford. Their retirement age is 60!!
A big adjustment needs to happen where spending comes back to match income. It will be painful and deflationary for many.

"Peter Huljich has admitted to

"Peter Huljich has admitted to manipulating returns figures. What he did was tell lies about his performance in order to instil confidence in prospective investors in the Hiljuch KiwiSaver funds".

My bet is that Peter Huljich will now be in line for some Queen's Birthday honors. That will teach him and his ilk!!

I'm quite new to the

I'm quite new to the world of economics. I once thought that I could focus on my trained profession and leave the running of the economy and society to others. Sadly the frozen ANZ/ING fund fiasco changed all that for me; I now read every day about the real economy (for the most part collapsing everywhere), and what is happening in the world (peak everything). Now it is quite clear that the vast majority of those in power either have no clue about where we are headed or they have an idea but don't act on it.

I am amazed that anyone even contemplates the idea of bailing out Greece. Given their track record in the way they handle debt (by often not paying it back), and their attitude to curbing spending, there is no way in hell they are ever going to pay the loan back. Why would you bail them out? It's not like 'saving' Greece will change anything. After Greece it will be the next country, and the next, and the next. Just look at Iceland, one of the first to get into trouble. The IMF bailed them out (Icesave), and now it looks like the Icelandic citizens will quite possibly not even start to pay it back!

What I see happening now is a media propaganda battle between the US and EU. First we hear about California being broke (California having 10% of the US GDP). Then the media suddenly has Greece all over it, even though they are only 3% of the GDP of the EU. ie. California defaulting is potentially much worse for the US, than if Greece defaults. Or am I missing something? It seems everyone wants to maintain the image that their country is just fine and dandy in a desperate and futile attempt to keep their own currency from collapse.

Is it, like, the last country to declare itself bankrupt wins, or something? I admit I don't know all the rules, though was amused to hear the US is playing by Monopoly rules: "The bank never runs out of money. If the bank has no money, more money may be created by writing on regular pieces of paper."

Saw a great documentary on the weekend on a city of 1 million in Brazil called Curitiba. The documentary is called "A convenient truth" (no, not the Al Gore one An Inconvenient Truth). I was blown away at how the mayor and the people in power were actually down to earth practical people. At one point the mayor was an electrical engineer, another was an architect. It's amazing and inspiring to see what these people achieved in the way of efficient transport systems (needed in a post oil economy), cheap housing for the masses, recycling of waste, and helping of small businesses to be productive. What's more they did this all with hardly any or no money at all. By comparison New Zealand is way behind; way way behind.

Re Gareth Morgans piece,am pleased

Re Gareth Morgans piece,am pleased that we have a Kiwi saver provider prepared to verbalise his disquiet with Don Brash and John Banks as "fronts" for schemes ,not having done their duty of diligence,but don`t see how resigning would clear them of responsibility.Lovely to have the "record" to deliver investors to Huljich,but rather quiet on taking responsibility when lack of oversite places investors at risk.

Martin, Curitiba is a fantastic

Martin, Curitiba is a fantastic city to visit (we went on our way to Florianopilis a few years back). It is a model city of urban planning, public transport, local policies, environmental concerns etc. Auckland's leaders could learn a lot from this city and the way it is run ... its ironic when a city in a developing country is doing better than many in the so called developed world !!

Actually I think it has closer to 1.8 million people.

@Martinv: "or am I missing

@Martinv: "or am I missing something?"

Debt....Defaults effect on the banks? multiplier effect of cds's? loss of confidence? runs on the banks?

Straw that breaks the camel's back?

Says a lot about Don

Says a lot about Don Brash....he's supposed to be the switched on financial who wanted to be PM....now of course he turns up at ACT conferences...yeah right....one thing i see time and time again is how dodgy these right whinger types are....instead of getting on with it they want advantages to make the effort worthwhile...

The brains trust predicts a

The brains trust predicts a "bumpy" year ahead....they really are a top lot....on the cutting edge...leading the research...who would have thought it would be "bumpy"!
Is that seabed "bumpy" ....cliff face "bumpy"....or asteroid impact "bumpy"....tune in for the next episode of "Noddyland economics" and find out your fate...no rush..bound to be late.

Good article Martinv agree with

Good article Martinv agree with you - unity is needed how long can we afford the luxury in this country, playing "Kindergarten" among different parties, dealing with problems in our economy ?

http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2010/02/15/labours-david-c...

Walter

#2; Nice to see someone

#2; Nice to see someone else see's JBrownlee as I do....funny that....both engineers both think as an energy minister he's bloody useless...

Oh. who was Labour's btw? memorable chap obviously....

;]

Charles C a lawyer....anyone in Govn an engineer or scientist?

regards

I read somewhere that nine

I read somewhere that nine of eleven Chinese "cabinet" are engineers.
Perhaps we should watch carefully.

You guys should stop worrying.

You guys should stop worrying. Now that we're at Peak Oil that mean's it's a sellers market and you can be confident that the hard-nosed business instincts of this govt are going to screw every possible penny out of the oil co's sniffing around now. Especially that Brownlee. He's a tiger. We'll all be driving boats down the Terrace by christmas.

I hope he gets Maurice Williamson along to negotiate cos he's managed to come out on top of all the leaky home negotiations without any mud sticking at all and that's a $20billion fight......

In a few words on

In a few words on Greece :
Northerners' save money southerner's spend money "“ no wonder Greece, Spain and Portugal are in financial trouble.

W Kunz: Iceland got in

W Kunz: Iceland got in to trouble because it saved money????

The desperation around the world

The desperation around the world is beginning to show now. more taxes, less benefits, budgets blown into the stratosphere, states falling, cut this,cut that, cut everything. haa, laughable to watch if it were'nt so unavoidable

For the history buffs I

For the history buffs I found this site recommended by Steve Keen on his site

http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/

I think I can safely

I think I can safely lump these guys into the real estate agents are useless bin....NZIER you have absolutely no idea...

"economic growth of 2.7 per cent this year and a tepid 1.4 per cent in 2011. "

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3389222/Economy-recovery-will-be-jagged

No downsides it seems.....yeah right. Well there is one...by maybe 2011 at worst 2015 I think most ppl will be aware these twerps etc have no clue and will ignore them....

and as for stuff for printing it....

LOL......

regards

"the oil co’s sniffing around

"the oil co's sniffing around now. "

They all left last year....if there is any its too small, too deep and too far...

regards

"The recession is over, but

"The recession is over, but it will be a jagged recovery, with some alarm bells still ringing here and overseas, forecasting group NZIER says."

hahha, statements like this crack me up. Seems the definition of 'recession' is becoming slightly worped

I totally agree with powerdownkiwi

I totally agree with powerdownkiwi - our fourth estate - television especially really has some answering to do.

I think the lead item on TVNZ tonight was the tsunami wave that tippled a tiny trailer sailer in an estuary down south somewhere - and happily, the owner pulled the little boat ashore in quick time as the wave lapped at his ankles.

Meantime, teachers aren't being paid, buses aren't running and the police are having their cars repossessed in the US. ... Illinois is where I grew up - rich cropping soils and the central hub of transport, manufacturing and merchantile exchange - back then anyway. Massive layoffs in public school systems is just beyond belief.

NZers need to be exposed during prime time news of the realities coming out of the middle-class 'heartland' in the US - because sure as anything, it has to be heading our way (despite the fact that our dopey PM is promising our pensioners a pay rise!)

Kate, a friend whose nephew

Kate, a friend whose nephew attends school in Hawaii said his parents have being told that school is being reduced to 4 days a week because they can't pay teachers for 5 days.

Kate - thanks. I wonder

Kate - thanks.

I wonder if folk like Tim Hunter, Patrick O'Mara or Dene McKenzie take any notice?

The trouble with them, is that they rub shoulders with the believers. It's a bit like reporting on horse-racing, while taking a punt based on a tip from a trainer you drink with.

Sigh :)

We would love to return

We would love to return to NZ ... but as always it's the ignorance barrier we would find difficult to live with. How sad is it to say that the UK is streets ahead in facing the future. The tsunami watchers in NZ speaks volumes. I'm with Wally - let them learn ... too late, so sad,... not really. Do the people reflect the politicians or is it the other way around? We live in an age when it has never been easier to access a better reflection of reality. Yet so many people in NZ resist - why??? Too comfortable in the past by far.