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Have your say: Will the baby-boomers sell their villas and buy apartments?

Posted in News

Brian Gaynor took a big picture look in his NZHerald column at the last decade and the next decade. He emphasised that baby-boomers will be retiring over the next 10 years and will look to sell their houses in the suburbs and move to apartments.

Retirees normally put their feet up, reduce their consumption and spend their declining years in relative tranquillity.

The post World War II baby-boomer generation is expected to be different. This generation will be active and will travel extensively, overseas and domestically. To fund this many will sell the family home and move into apartments or retirement villages, which will be easier to maintain than a suburban home. This strategy will also release capital to fund travel.

Thus the 2010s could be the decade of the apartment, with residential housing prices lagging well behind.

My view

Really? I'm a little wary of predicting an exodus of the baby-boomers emptying their nests and moving to the Viaduct. There may be a few, but I suspect many will be reluctant to sell their villas for less than they believe they're worth.

New Zealand's property market is slow to clear, particularly when bankers are not stressed and pushing people out. These baby boomers have large amounts of equity and relatively high incomes to support some of the the debt they have.

I suspect we'll actually see many baby-boomers opting to work for longer, either through choice or because they have to to service their still large mortgages. But I doubt they'll move en masse into apartments and retirement villages.

Your view? We welcome your comments and insights below.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

46 Comments

Apartments and complexes have body

Apartments and complexes have body corp fees that will make many retirees think twice about having neighbours above them, below them and beside them. I'm a boomer, and my ideal retirement down-trade in the year 2025 will be a smaller low maintenance home on its own plot with no body corp fees. Or a quieter spot in the country away from the busy city that I spent my hectic working life in.

He's got to be joking,

He's got to be joking, I live in the city and security would be their biggest issue walking past all the homeless or drunk people who ask for $1.

Time weighs heavily upon idle

Time weighs heavily upon idle hands . I suspect that as BB's trickle into retirement , they'll regain their interest in the garden . Some may opt for bigger sections or even a ubiquitous 4 ha. block to keep themselves busy . Ennui is a killer - not a soppy band from Ireland .

Bernard, Today on stuff.co.nz http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property

Bernard,

Today on stuff.co.nz
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=1062...

You wrote: The Tax Working Group found there was $213 billion invested in residential rental property that generated losses for tax purposes of more than $500 million in 2008.
This reduced tax revenues by about $200 million. Too much was being invested in property because our tax system was broken.
Without reform the economy would be handicapped by a leaching of capital and talent to countries with lower taxes.
That was when the group decided to get serious about taxing property investors.
It makes no sense to invest four times the value of the stock market in property when it seems the aim is to make a loss to avoid paying the top personal tax rate.

You miss one obvious point.

Everyone has to live somewhere, not everyone has to invest in the stock-market.
I for one never will, for the following reasons.
20 years ago the govt. told kiwi's they needed to fund their own retirement and become more entrepreneurial to boot. The stock market had just crashed, more recently finance companies have engaged in wholesale legalised theft.
The only place left for people to keep their assets secure is in property and now you are saying the govt. is envious of property owners because of the govt's. own mis-management?
Get off the grass mate. I'll move to aussie myself if the government steals my hard earned equity.

What a dreamer! Apartments in

What a dreamer! Apartments in NZ (or in Auckland) are real rip-offs. In Australia, a 3 bedroom apartment with car park will cost the same as our 2 bedroom without carpark, as well as our rubbish building quality. Not sure why someone would rush out to sell their house to move into something much smaller, noisier and probably not quite weather resistance!

Bart Hanson says....."Get off the

Bart Hanson says....."Get off the grass mate. I'll move to aussie myself if the government steals my hard earned equity." enjoy the trip Bart.... it just an inevitability that has to be addressed.... i've got to wear it with an open minded resignation that aside I presume you bought when things were cheap so we really can't complain too much can we! Bon Voyage and good luck.

Stupid call. As a fair

Stupid call. As a fair dinkum BB there is no bloody way I would live in an apartment. The same seems to be the case for many down this way because there are 'apartments' in Picton and Blenheim unsold for yonks. Them foreigners can keep it.
I reckon most old farts would rather have a place in a small town where all the things they need are close by and they can have themselves a bloody good garden.

and here i was ,

and here i was , wally, all this time of reading your posts thinking that you were a mover and a shaker in the halls of power and a legend in your own lunchtime at all the trendy hotspots around the country...and now you 'fess up to being a greedy old baby boomer that's responsible for the downfall of this country with your selfish ways....o, the cruelty of having an image shattered !..sob !!

Bart Hanson Says ...."Get off

Bart Hanson Says ...."Get off the grass mate. I'll move to aussie myself if the government steals my hard earned equity."

Then have a safe journey Bart, it is an inevitability that this matter is addressed... I like you will have to wear it ...but assuming you bought when property was dirt cheap we don't have that much to complain about do we..?
I, like you I hope, will look for some other trough to wade into and see what truffles we can't suck out of it..yes.? if not Bon Voyage...Bart and good luck to you.

I 'd love to shout out a big Happy new year to the team and the usual suspects and hope I can find some time to join in a bit .

Serves you right for believing

Serves you right for believing on the tooth fairy Rob. One can be a BB and not be old you know. I did my time in the 'halls of power' and now enjoy being outside the tent doing the deed on those inside. Still dry up your way, you old coot?

Let's not forget that Key

Let's not forget that Key ham-strung the TWG from the start , with the necessity that their recommendations be revenue neutral . No option to reduce gumnut spending . Ergo , on the whole , it is shifting the tax chairs on the IRD titanic . No need to depart to Oz , yet .

stuff.co.nz = Unfairfax . The " NZHarold " is some other shonky tattered rag , of which we do not speak ...........p'tooooooooie . ( spit ! ) . They are not the same orgasmnisation .

BB's will still need the

BB's will still need the big house for when the grandkids come to stay ... see baby "boom" numbers over the last few years

always warm up here on

always warm up here on the hibiscus coast ,wally !
but then the ole hometown of nelson ain't bad ,either!

Too simplistic by half. Assumes

Too simplistic by half. Assumes a nuclear fambly situation, acting in isolation. When one thinks aboot aged parents, grandkids, and assorted waifs and strays, the choice of where and how to live is a leetle more complicated.....and then there's the Shed...

And the article also fergets the BB's with no mortgage, who have seen quite enuff of the world, ta very much, and who realise just what a great little spot NZ actually is.

I'm with waymad - too

I'm with waymad - too simplistic - not all boomers are alike. A study on the equity position of the BBs and the distribution of that equity across that generation would be of interest.

"The only place left for

"The only place left for people to keep their assets secure is in property"

Comments of this nature (and there are a lot of them here) really worry me. They will always lead to a bubble (ignoring whether we are in one now), and bubbles always pop eventually...

Wymad ..Kate... spot on in

Wymad ..Kate... spot on in the observation that " all boomers are not alike" but we will be will be formalised as a target group not just to take our turn on the musical tax chair game(gumnut)...but to scare us into freeing up some of that stash into other more readily taxable investments.......... lets sit tight and see what actually hits the ground running............. I suspect there will be an amnesty (bail) period so the gumnut boys can find the out doors.

Both my parents and the

Both my parents and the inlaws have bought bigger homes to accommodate grandkids. My uncles and aunties are doing the same.

I'm with waymad, it's not

I'm with waymad, it's not that simple. I know of plenty of BBs who have already downsized, often selling to GenX. I also know a few BBs actually UP-sizing, to have room for the whole whanau/extended family, and they're probably looking to pass it on to the kids when they're done.......

IanC - banks & other

IanC - banks & other financial lenders have always preferred the security of property, it ain't about to change.....

IanC When property bubles burst

IanC
When property bubles burst those that have invested all there funds in the large family home have the large family home, when the sharemarket bubble bursts they have less and are living a poorer life for it.

As per others I think

As per others I think there will be varied choices made by the boomers.
However, anecdotally speaking, most of my parent's friends have moved out of their larger family homes into smaller townhouses, or into the countryside or a smaller urban area (like Kapiti).
And a large number of retirement villages are still being built which indicates that this is still a popular retirement choice.
Of course some boomers will want to (and can afford to) stay in their old suburban homes.
But despite the varied choices, I think many boomers will move out of their suburban family homes, and this wil have a flattening impact on suburban house prices. Although as Bernard says the boomers would be careful not to flood the market - if oversupply of suburban homes occured and prices droped, there would be self regulation as boomers would delay their move.

shorts said:

"Both my parents and the inlaws have bought bigger homes to accommodate grandkids. My uncles and aunties are doing the same."

Are you meaning the bigger homes have been bought to permanelty accommodate family, or to have spare rooms so that when family come to stay from wide and far they have a place to stay?

I think the fact that so many boomers will have children living in other places in NZ or around the world will limit moves to 2 bedroom apartments. My parents want to keep their 3 bedroom townhouse in Wgtn, so that my family can stay with them when we visit, and likewise my brother's family when they visit from Europe

Based on my previous comment,

Based on my previous comment, rather than there being a boom in apartments for baby boomers, I think there could be strong demand for compact 3 bed townhouses
To that effect, there would be thousands of sections in Auckland in the order of 700-900 sqaure metres that could easily accommodate an additional townhouse, where that is currently prohibited
To me it is criminal thats there are thousands of these 800-900 square metre sections in the Residential 5 zone of Auckand City (Res 5) that are not allowed to build a second unit for reasons of "Residential Character"

Murray, John... so is what

Murray, John... so is what has happened in the USA an aberation, never to be repeated?

Matt, No, the residents are

Matt,
No, the residents are absolutely right to expect that character will be kept. They probably paid a premium to be in that situation.
If there is a "long term" town plan to make a change, then it should be OK but regrettably rate of change in most NZ cities has destroyed 'character' by giving developers a free hand. Longer term plans outgun the short focus of the developer.
Before you accuse me of greed allow me to suggest that preservation of living environment is most important o those who live there now.

Logical Dave I agree retention

Logical Dave
I agree retention of an area's character is important, the big question is how far do you go in terms of protecting character?
A large 4 level apartment block in a predominantly 1/2 storey residential area, generating large amounts of traffic etc is likely to devastate an area's character

But to me, at least, back section infill has limited impacts. Sure it has some impact, but the costs of preventing (economic / housing affordability / environmental) are likely to outweigh the benefits. As far as I am concerned, if you are living in Auckland you must acknowledge you are living in a city, you can't expect a countryside like ambience.

this matter is very subjective, personally as an architect I find areas with infill interesting, because there is usually a great diversity of building styles and interventions. To me that is interesting. To others, who value conformity and uniformity, it is messy.

IanC - are you saying

IanC - are you saying banks in the US are now prepared to lend more against shares than property?!
I'm sure it will get repeated somewhere at some point, but lending practices here were quite conservative by comparison (no derivatives of derivatives of derivatives etc!)....

Matt- do a trademe search

Matt- do a trademe search on Riverglen Estate in Pakuranga. These have been on the market for 4 years. Starting price was $750K down to $599K. The inlaws lived next door when they were being built so we have been watching the steady decline in asking price.

Murray - They probably haven't

Murray - They probably haven't changed their lending practices against shares, which is the point.

I dont agree with BG...not

I dont agree with BG...not about apartments....as someone else said there are maintenance fees are these are un-controllable and way over-priced....I do think BBs will move out of their big homes into smaller and/or retirement villages, I know older ppl who are doing just that in the last few years....the BBs are not dumb by and large, Im sure they can see the ripoffs...indeed their older siblings or parents might well have suffered from costs associated with apartments, I know friends of my parents did....once bitten twice shy....So I agree with BH....they also wont accept losing paper wealth immediately but sooner or later yes they will...hmm also I wonder how many of the BBs who like apartments have these as investments already? maybe renting them out today with the view of moving in on retirement? so many variables...

One of the interesting ones could be the reverse mortgage...not sell the McMansion but get an income off the large property which goes to the mortgage holder on death....now given that house prices I think will drop severly that could be a good deal for a BB, assuming the mortgage holder isnt that wise....and if the BB accepts/decides that the house price could drop 40%....

regards

@RT: gardens are good when

@RT: gardens are good when you are fit (50~70), when starting to get frail (75+)a flat next to the hospital is a favourite...I do agree that some BBs will expect to travel, their children probably did an OE they didnt, so catch up...My parents have 3~5 hols a year and a very nice garden, but its 20 years on...and starting to become a bit much...

Oh yeah - really great

Oh yeah - really great idea living in an apartment - so much room for family to come and stay and for the grandkids to kick a ball around the balcony and where will they all park their cars!

If you really think that all the oldies moving to an apartment will become the trend you must be in dreamland!

Good idea to keep us

Good idea to keep us BB's looking after huge gardens (preferably on a slope)
I'd rather keel over in the cucumbers than end up in Eventide Home.
Sorry we are going to be such a problem to all you young things...it wasn't our fault really ...it was just that our parents got carried away with hearts full of hope after WW2 and bred like rabbits!

Prosperopink - nice ambition, unfortunately

Prosperopink - nice ambition, unfortunately I think many of our ancestors held the same view until the reality of old age caught up

I don't even like cucumbers

I don't even like cucumbers , but I'd rather peg out amongst the murderous little green pricks , than fade away in a high-rise , or in Sunny-View Retirement Hovels .

Remember Marlon Brando in the " Godfather " movie : Splatter yourself all over the tomatoes ; scare the shit out of the family , all that juice on yer , they'll assume it was a " hit " . Go out with a smile !

"When I am Old I

"When I am Old
I will wear Purple!"

http://www.aztriad.com/pathmark/purple_poem.html

Nah - oldies would not

Nah - oldies would not like the huge ground rent and body corp fees in the Viaduct apartments!

Of coarse BBs will sell

Of coarse BBs will sell their 1/4 acre sections and move into smaller homes just like my grandmother dd 40yrs ago
1/My grandfather had died a few yrs beforehand
2/ Her arthritis had become to great to continue to look after the gardens.

Neither of these has anything thing to do with financial climate, retirement age or whatever, it is what people have been doing for generations...

And yes there are many levels of financial security BBs have HAD and also WILL have
At one end are those who have sprayed their life income up against a wall, and end up in same pokey little room....as they have always done
Then their are those who have put a little nest egg away, like a rental, and mortgage free, to pay for Xmas presents for the great grand children, head down the bowling club, and the occasional trip overseas.
At the top are those very well off, dont have to move into a smaller home because they can afford house keeper, cook and full time gardeners.

The ones I feel sorry for are those who put their trust in dickey financial advisors...these will fall between the 1st and 2nd above.
Many of the 1st and 2nd donate their current super to charity, so to suggest they will hit hard times when super goes is stupid...those who dont, put aside to pay for their annual trip overseas or cruise.

To suggest that a trend will exist or to even to forecast such a thing as a great Revelation is stupid, ludicrus...and a simple result of shallow thinking

And an after thought..ging from the selfcentered hammering BBs get from the modern younger generation, blaming them for all the world woes. These BBs are not going to be relying on them to change their snr nappies or even care about them in their old age....what we have now is a generation of BBs who have, are providing for their own independence as they get old, fralie.....and can we not blame them?
Unlike BBs and previous generations where younger generations have looked after their elderly, we are too wise, see the writing on the wall, see the self centred nature of the younger generation as a whole.

"see the self centred nature

"see the self centred nature of the younger generation as a whole."

I know plenty of BBs who are very self centred...

You should hear how many BBs I have heard bitching and moaning about a possible land tax in recent days!

And "stuff the pensioners" who will apparently be "hit hard" by a land tax. Its like all us Gen X and Y are sooooo lucky....entering the housing market with incredibly overvalued prices, needing student loans to get through uni etc.

OK, expect very little to change with those with the power and money continue to cream the benefits. Stuff the future!!!!!

I'm willing to admit when

I'm willing to admit when someone I don't really rate puts in a good analysis
And I think dear old Tony Alexander has done that, in his piece on the housing market for 2010 from his weekly report:

http://www.bnz.co.nz/binaries/w210110.pdf

As he says, a land tax might, in the longer run, have a price inflating effect
Even though many seem to be assuming it will be a downer for prices

@Matt in Auck - it

@Matt in Auck - it NOT the BB's verses Gen X &/or Y... It's the People verses the 'Money Printers'.

The lack affordability you lament is largely the product excessive Money/Credit Creation and the relaxation of Deposit requirements.

Q: Will a Land tax fix that, or just address the symptoms of that ?

Been offline for most of

Been offline for most of the day so have been able to see all of the commentary above. Generally I dont think that us baby boomers can be pigeon holed as easily as many commentators think. We will all do something different. In my case we intend to live in our large house for as long as possible. We dont want to move to a smaller house until we absolutely have to and are also not keen on retirement villages with their licence to occupy schemes as opposed to ownership. Travel is on the agenda but only modestly.

Well it's now offical......... No

Well it's now offical......... No Capital Gains Tax to be introduced....that potato is just tooooooo hot. But if your into Lacq's hold on to your inconto pants cause thier gonna make you sh.t.
Hey ho hey ho another brilliant year awaits us guffaw guffaw..... no sign of bolly for a while, things must be good or Bill's lost the pump again.

Won't you baby boomers move

Won't you baby boomers move from the city suburbs to places like Matakana and get your self a same size house, but with more land? You won't have any need to be close to work, and you can have a boat parked in your own driveway. I don't see you lot moving into apartments when you've had houses all your life, and kiwi's like back gardens not balconies. Market forces will push up land in the rural area's but close to the city for day trips, but may lower or stagnate in the city burbs.

Brian Gaynor is just a

Brian Gaynor is just a typical wishful thinking lefty utopian doing a smokescreen for his fellow travellers in Urban Planning irrespctive of the damage their ideas are doing to people and the whole economy.