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Top 10 at 10: Subsidies for Peter Jackson?; Not so fair trade; Hyperinflation vs deflation; Dilbert

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Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and comments below or please email your suggestions for Wednesday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz Dilbert.com 1. Not so fair trade - No less than Andrew Chambers at The Guardian is questioning the validity of the Fair Trade movement.

Nestlé has just announced that KitKat "“ Britain's biggest-selling chocolate bar "“ will carry the Fairtrade logo from next month. But how much do consumers really know about the Fairtrade movement? Is it, as some say, an essential safety net that helps poor farmers earn a better living or, as others say, an example of western feel-good tokenism that holds back modernisation and entrenches agrarian poverty?

2. Vigilantes are back - The New York Times' Landon Thomas says the bond vigilantes that bedeviled Bill Clinton in the early 1990s are back and threatening delinquent governments in Britain and Greece (but why not the United States?).

Today, the bond market posse has set its sights on Europe "” particularly Britain and Greece "” where stagnant economies and high levels of government spending have led to the highest budget deficits in the region. Although the left-leaning governments in both countries are struggling to show investors that they have a workable plan to reduce deficits "” which now average around 13 percent of gross domestic product "” bond traders are increasingly demanding higher interest rates to reflect the rising risks. Bond traders last week pushed the spreads between Greek 10-year bonds and their benchmark German counterparts "” a measure of investor confidence in the country "” to highs of 250 basis points after the nation's credit rating was downgraded, raising concerns over Greece's ability to service its enormous debt. In Britain, where the nation's economy and finances have fallen so sharply that investors fear a possible downgrade of the country's triple-A rating, bond traders are also taking a hard line. Last week, yields on gilts were pushed to their highest levels since the depths of the financial crisis, after the Labour Party issued a preliminary budget report that skimped on details of spending cuts. "There is a clear drop in confidence on the part of bond investors," said Mark Schofield, a fixed-income strategist at Citigroup in London. "I think it is all beginning to unravel."

3. Peter Jackson is wealthy enough - Now Peter Jackson is calling for more subsidies for film-makers to compete against the Australians, in this Dominion Post interview with Tom Cardy (who I went through journalism school with). Matt Nolan at TVHE points out rightly that this is a mad path for both Australia and NZ to go down together.

In the end both countries end up subsidising movies, and both sets of taxpayers end up worse off than in the case when neither country subsidises. This is the issue, not only with the subsidies on movies, but on all trade protectionism. That is why we need international co-operation to avoid this type of beggar thy neighbour behaviour.

4. Downgraded - Standard and Poor's has downgraded Mexico's sovereign rating to BBB from BBB+, FT Alphaville reports. 2010 looks to be the year of sovereign rating downgrades and fiscal rectitude driven by bond market vigilantes (for everyone but America and Japan it seems).

"The downgrades reflects our assessment that Mexico's recent steps to raise non-oil revenues and improve efficiencies in the economy will likely be insufficient to compensate for the weakening of its fiscal profile," explained Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lisa Schineller. "This weakening stems from a combination of modest GDP growth prospects and diminished oil production over the coming years."

Related Topics

5. Hyperinflation vs Deflation - The great debate grinds on with this piece from John Williams from ShadowStats, as reported in Zerohedge. Williams seems awfully sure of himself, despite plenty of evidence this year of deflation rather than inflation. Your view?

Before the systemic solvency crisis began to unfold in 2007, the U.S. government already had condemned the U.S. dollar to a hyperinflationary grave by taking on debt and obligations that never could be covered through raising taxes and/or by severely slashing government spending that had become politically untouchable. The U.S. economy also already had entered a severe structural downturn, which helped to trigger the systemic solvency crisis. The intensifying economic and solvency crises, and the responses to both by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve in the last two years, have exacerbated the government's solvency issues and moved forward my timing estimation for the hyperinflation to the next five years, from the 2010 to 2018 timing range estimated in the prior report. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve already have committed the system to this course through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, gross mismanagement, and a deliberate and ongoing effort to debase the U.S. currency. Accordingly, risks are particularly high of the hyperinflation crisis breaking within the next year. The U.S. has no way of avoiding a financial Armageddon. Bankrupt sovereign states most commonly use the currency printing press as a solution to not having enough money to cover obligations. The alternative would be for the U.S. to renege on its existing debt and obligations, a solution for modern sovereign states rarely seen outside of governments overthrown in revolution, and a solution with no happier ending than simply printing the needed money. With the creation of massive amounts of new fiat dollars (not backed by gold or silver) will come the eventual destruction of the value of the U.S. dollar and related dollar-denominated paper assets. What lies ahead will be extremely difficult, painful and unhappy times for many in the United States. The functioning and adaptation of the U.S. economy and financial markets to a hyperinflation likely would be particularly disruptive. Trouble could range from turmoil in the food distribution chain to electronic cash and credit systems unable to handle rapidly changing circumstances. The situation quickly would devolve from a deepening depression, to an intensifying hyperinflationary great depression.

6. Printing is ending - The US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its bond buying programme, with 85% of it complete, Calculated Risk points out. How will the world cope? 7. Inevitable fallout - Ireland, unlike Greece, is slashing to the bone to drag its budget under control. The fallout is now hitting hard and all-out strikes are now possible, according to a senior unionist, The Irish Times reports. HT Gertraud.

"The problem we have to recognise now the ambitions for the reforms I have been talking about for six months now lie in tatters. We need to understand that the reason for that is that the people who work to provide public services are angry, upset and very hurt at the way the Government walked away from these negotiations at the last minute".

"I think we are now dealing with a potentially explosive situation. We must recognise is that the main reason for that is that over 250,000 people in the public services whose earnings a year ago were €60,000 gross or less will have taken a 13 per cent enforced pay cut in ten months", he said.

8. Obama's big sellout - Matt Taibi, the journalist behind the Goldman Sachs Vampire Squid story that set the agenda for backlash over banker bonuses, has now written a scathing piece accusing Barack Obama of selling out to Wall St. Sounds about right. Well worth a read. I said a while ago Obama was a liar and a fool. This story bears this out. It's full of juicy detail like this:

What's taken place in the year since Obama won the presidency has turned out to be one of the most dramatic political about-faces in our history. Elected in the midst of a crushing economic crisis brought on by a decade of orgiastic deregulation and unchecked greed, Obama had a clear mandate to rein in Wall Street and remake the entire structure of the American economy. What he did instead was ship even his most marginally progressive campaign advisers off to various bureaucratic Siberias, while packing the key economic positions in his White House with the very people who caused the crisis in the first place. This new team of bubble-fattened ex-bankers and laissez-faire intellectuals then proceeded to sell us all out, instituting a massive, trickle-up bailout and systematically gutting regulatory reform from the inside.

9. Drug money helped - A UN report reckons that drugs money helped keep the global financial system afloat in those dark few days last year, The Guardian reported.

Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, said he has seen evidence that the proceeds of organised crime were "the only liquid investment capital" available to some banks on the brink of collapse last year. He said that a majority of the $352bn (£216bn) of drugs profits was absorbed into the economic system as a result. This will raise questions about crime's influence on the economic system at times of crisis. It will also prompt further examination of the banking sector as world leaders, including Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, call for new International Monetary Fund regulations.

10. Amusement - This is a fake application from a former investment banker to get into law school. It's from McSweeney's.net. HT James Kwak.

I want to attend law school because I want to make a difference in the world. My desire to attend law school has nothing to do with the fact that I was recently fired from my job as an analyst at an investment bank, where I worked in the mergers and acquisitions group. Since January, I've worked on approximately one merger, zero acquisitions, have played Spider Solitaire 434 times and updated my Facebook status, on average, five times a day. My 401K is down 45 percent. All three of my roommates "” Teddy, Whit, and Dan (The Man) McGregor "” have lost their jobs and are moving back home with their parents. (I feel most sorry for Whit, who's from Cleveland.) I have $350 in savings, which may seem strange because I've been making, with bonus, at least $100,000 a year since graduating from college four years ago (in "Boston." OK ... Harvard.). But New York is expensive. Drinks cost $15. My Hamptons summer share (which was a valuable networking tool) put me back $15,000 last year. This is a long way of saying that law is a tool to promote equality, and to help create a just society. These have always been my goals in life.

11. Totally irrelevant video -  Here are the faces behind the voices of The Simpsons. HT Andrew Wilson via email.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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33 Comments

#5 John Williams.......crikey, that's some

#5 John Williams.......crikey, that's some alarmist dialogue right there. Too many short blacks? Even you, BH, seem to think his Armegeddon in '10 views are extreme....

I'm in the slow deflationist boat for 2010.

China simply won't allow the $US to explode.

Maybe we will need to

Maybe we will need to start defining an Avogadro Constant for the USD.

And here the voice of

And here the voice of Bart Simpson declares "crusade" in new Scientology video:

http://gawker.com/5424117/this-is-the-crusade-leaked-scientology-video-f...

Oh but it's rising and

Oh but it's rising and the fed will also...so much for the rally in the US dollar....a fart into a hurricane....blown away it will be when Mr Market comes to the table...count on Ben churning out the loot because they have no other way to pay the piper...bar discovering a mountain of gold or multi billion barrel oil field. Ditto the UK. Where does all this leave stupid Noddyland.. the property ponzi scheme in the South Pacific? Where are the tens of thousands of immigrants the govt ordered allowed in to pork the ponzi bubble again?..how will Bill, magic away the growing hole in govt revenue?..when will the spin give way to an admission that so far after a year of dithering, stuff all has been done...or are we to have TWG sauce with our pork for xmas dinner?

Speaking of Obama. He claimed

Speaking of Obama.

He claimed in his interview last night on 60 min that he's not anyone's bitch. As far as I'm concerned he's only got one bullet left in his gun to prove it. This is the defining moment of his entire Presidency. It's his 9/11. He should declare war on Wall Street much like Bush did on the Talban in Afghanistan.

Fire his financial advisors, close the banks, pull licenses, and start prosecuting everyone and anyone. I don't care if 95% of them make a deal and get off, prosecute them anyway. Make then heads roll and get the SHizz storm going and they will start pointing fingers like crazy. These guys DO NOT want to be in jail.

The world needs alot more

The world needs alot more journalists / bloggers like Matt Taibbi .

<i>A UN report reckons that

A UN report reckons that drugs money helped keep the global financial system afloat in those dark few days last year

I'm not surprised. One idea I've been pondering a while is the financial implications of drug reform. Imagine the non-government stimulus of an amnesty on drug money. Anyone have any idea of how much M1 money supply is hoarded uselessly by the black market?

I take it you are

I take it you are not a fan of Wall street suits Troy?

<b>Troy</b>, the problem coming is

Troy, the problem coming is not from #8 above (and I note the absurd notion of laissez-faire in that statement, completely wrong as usual). The problem coming is solely down to #5 - hyperinflation through the unprincipled, and unprecedented, printing of fiat money. And that rests on Obama's head, and his crony - as opposed to laissez-faire (they are not) - capitalist advisors. The bankers are just a side show: the Federal Reserve, the fiat (unsound) money and fractional banking system - that's the problem.

Actually it doesn't matter to

Actually it doesn't matter to me. I have no personal grudge against Wall Street. In fact, Wall Street is doing what they get paid to do, game the system. Wall Street reminds me of the fable of the Scorpion and the Turtle. We can't blame the scorpion for killing the turtle can we? Its in it nature. But we can send a strong message that it stops here and gaming the system buy using back channels to lobby Congress will have no effect. Obama is the President, it's his duty to protect and defend the Constitution from enemies both foreign AND Domestic.

The problem I have is the lack of Moral Hazard. There is nothing to prevent this problem from happening over and over again. I'm simply pointing out that if he wants to keep his job he only has one play left in his play book. Can you imagine what will happen if he loses to Sarah Palin in 2012"¦

Understand Obama may outsource the

Understand Obama may outsource the running of Afghan war to Tony Blair and the running of US Economy to the Wall Street Mafia.

@Mark I understand the real

@Mark

I understand the real issue is all the money printing...Congress did nobody any favors by sending another $9 trillion to the President. [1.8 trillion x money accelerator (5)] I thought the US might have a sliver of a chance in 1999 when there was a perceived surplus...but as soon as the Republican's in Congress started clamoring to spend the money or send it back to the tax payers I knew Congress didn't get it. There was no way the US will EVER repay a single penny of its debt. It will continue to roll it over into perpetuity till a true crisis forces it to stop. However, the law of geometric increases states that it would require more monies then exists on the planet.

BTW I was one of the first people to state that the entire bailout will cost more the $30 Trillion well over 18 months ago. So I I'm defiantly in the hyperinflation camp. And I was highly skeptical of Obama from the get go, not because I think he's a liar its because I think he will really have no spine to make the tough decisions and truly rise above it to lead.

#3 'Picking winners' crap. Watch

#3 'Picking winners' crap. Watch the polys jump. What Jackson really needs is an exchange rate that better reflects real trade flows, instead of speculative money flows, that is, an effective monetary policy and system. In support of that, an investment environment and tax system that is NOT biased against productive enterprise, that is, the kind of enterprise he does. He needs the same as any exporter, foreign exchange earner. However, instead stand by for the grant cheque book (or similar intervention) to come out in short order. Can't wait for National to get back in and sort things out ......

Troy, problem is he can't

Troy, problem is he can't fire them, but they fire him ih he gets out of control, and he is aware of it.
Also, American goverment/army controls about 80% of world heroin supply, which comes from Afganistan...

American Prospect begs to differ

American Prospect begs to differ with Matt Taibbi:
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=12&year=2009&bas...

@Shaun Obama's Cabinet and advisors

@Shaun

Obama's Cabinet and advisors server at his discretion. He can disband the entire cabinet at any time.

@ Will de Cleene The

@ Will de Cleene

The problem isn't whether or not there is an actual conspiracy of insiders helping insiders...the problem is the perception is there and it's not going away. Did you read the comments to The American Prospect's critic of Taibbi? Ouch! It doesn't matter if Taibbi is right or wrong anymore. The perception of insiders helping insiders has stained everything. And it doesn't help that Congress has gutted every piece of legislation. The populous has become enraged and there will be blood unless Obama steps in soon. Photo ops and 60min sound bites will not cut it. He might as well move iin withTiger Woods.

Troy, in theory yes, but

Troy, in theory yes, but reality is a bit different. Here is small example how greatest democracy works:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eG6X-xtVask&NR=1

@ Shaun Can't view youtube

@ Shaun

Can't view youtube at work. BTW the US is not a Democracy...it's a Republic. The difference is night and day. Democracy is a feel good PR word championed by FDR to make the working man fell like that have a voice in government. Also, I well aware how the US Republic works. If your implying that a member of the President's cabinet can not be fired, they can. The Senate appoints them only because they are part of the Continuity of Government plan but only the President can fire/ask them to resign at anytime. It's rare.

Anyway, I don't understand how this has anything to do with the PR nightmare that Obama is facing. Presidents do not go on 60min and try and convince the public he answers to no one, because things are going well.

Hmm, globally deflation...but what's stopping

Hmm, globally deflation...but what's stopping say the USA having hyper-inflation while China has deflation?

"a solution for modern sovereign states rarely seen outside of governments overthrown in revolution" ominous indeed...however consider that revolution is usually fostered where there is no hope. So to my mind American ppl have a stake in a society...however what about other say developing countries? take Pakistan....unstable, almost bankrupt and has Nukes....It appears that these days nothing happens in isolation...

I agree with 8, Obama had the almost unique position of being able to do what he promised, he had the support, instead he seems to have achieved diddly....based on past performance I guess next year he's due for the Nobel prize in Economics, Physics and literature...all for doing nothing...

@Troy, "Can you imagine what will happen if he loses to Sarah Palin in 2012"¦" yes we get a second President who doesn't think too hard....should we care? has Obama's thinking shown to be good/sound?

Its likely that the coming US and global meltdown will happen quicker if "we" get Palin, personally I'm now all for it, Obama's a loser, he has to go....its blindingly obvious that there is no other way to fix this debacle but via severe disruption.

regards

"I said a while ago

"I said a while ago Obama was a liar and a fool."

I would have thought that goes with the job.

@Steve Be carful what you

@Steve

Be carful what you wish for...you just might get it. Palin thinks that she has been anointed by Gawd to lead the country. Sound familiar?

Jim Kunstler's latest blog <a

Jim Kunstler's latest blog Hostage Situation also draws on the Matt Taibbi piece.

Although JK regurgitates his usual prophecies of collapse and chaos, the Doom Meister ends on a surprisingly upbeat note (well, upbeat for him anyway):

Can't we come up with a better American Dream, even one that includes Christmas? I think we can. It would require the liberation of American citizen's minds from their thralldom to bigness in every realm from work to worship to recreation. If you think Barack Obama is a hostage to Wall Street, reflect for a while on the people's self-surrender to the tyranny of everything that diminishes us to mere "consumers." We're on a journey - and we don't know it - back to a nation of communities where your character really matters, and where character rests on whether your deeds comport with truthfulness. Many will be dragged kicking and screaming upon that journey, and many a dark night will be passed in the cold and damp on the way. But it will take us to a place where the hearths are burning brightly and the estranged spirits of our national character await a reunion with us: fortitude, patience, generosity, humor. That will be a Christmas to live for and remember!

Now, that doesn't sound all bad, does it?

That film subsidy analysis is

That film subsidy analysis is flawed. It assumes that AU NZ is a closed system. Clearly NZ can get films that would otherwise chose a location other than Australia. Also incentives can be different without leading to a protectionist war. One possibility is target certain types of films. Businesses respond to incentives. That is why the finance industry in the UK is moving to Switzerland. Alistair Darling forgets how many jobs the industry creates and tax revenues generated. This banker tax could go down in history as one of the monumental blunders.

Sure it doesn't seem fair, but it is a no win situation. I think they are putting politics above the good of the public. They should have thought about this when they were bailing the banks out. It is a shocking lack of foresight.

#3. Bring back subsidies for

#3. Bring back subsidies for the farmers also. Times are tough down on the farm!

@Troy, I agree (be careful

@Troy, I agree (be careful etc) however cant it be any better than a decade or three of the walking dead? aka Japan?

I liken it to my days of windows 95 when it started to get flaky (after six months or so) you could usually keep "repairing it" for a while but sooner or later you know full well it would be a bare metal re-install sooner or later...which could happen at the worst time...so its sort of pick the time....now or later, later we will be in even more poo after these assh*les have sucked even more out in bonuses and left even more un-manageable debt...

Palin is as thick as two short planks, but ppl need a good shakeup and start taking responsibility for who they vote for...vote dumb, get dumb.

regards

@Steve Personally I think the

@Steve

Personally I think the US needs a good economic timeout. A couple decades to pull themselves together should actually help. The idea of trying to fix the tires while the car is running isn't working. Ironically the one thing that can fix the economy is the same thing that is killing it. Wal-mart has driven too many manufactures to China or bankruptcy so it's going to take the USD to decline a lot further and an entire manufacturing sector to re invent itself before there will be any significant recovery in the US. So a timeout is in order. It will take at lest 3-5 years just to get some of the manufacturing jobs back. The days of the "information" or "service" economy are over.

As for Windows 95...it still is a problem with XP, it just takes 3 years vs. 6 months.

Shaun, that link is hilarious

Shaun, that link is hilarious

Nobody picked stagflation - I'll

Nobody picked stagflation - I'll get good odds at the bookie, then.

Of course, the payout may disappoint.

RE:5 If deflation is, according

RE:5

If deflation is, according to some, such a certainty, then why is the bond market continuing to price in inflation?

One of the two has to be wrong.

Anyone who ever thought that

Anyone who ever thought that BHO - straight out of the Chicago Democratic machine, bought and paid for from the get-go - was going to deliver Hope and Change, was simply deluded. Taibbi's article merely states the bleedingly obvious.

- the guy stacked his advisers with the perps, because he was too inexperienced to know any different, and because they had done the Paying (refer Bought and Paid for, above)

- in .mil circles, he's the Ditherer-in-Chief. Admitting weakness time after time when abroad, to even more delusional leaders such as Ahmadinejad, both encourages such leaders in their imperialism, and discourages your own side. Lose-lose.

- in domestic economic terms, he has profoundly destabilised SME's, by creating a huge amount of uncertainty about taxes and regulations. So, quelle surprise, they do not feel inclined to hire. And as any Gummint lives off the taxes from business, and as SME's account for most real job creation, this is not a clevver attitude to take. John Galt 1, BHO 0.

And there's mid-term elections coming up.......

Troy, again, that's all fine

Troy, again, that's all fine in theory. Last US president who seriously tried to change system was JFK, but did not live long enough.
Even if Obama indicates any significant changes would be crucified by media. Remember what they did to Clinton when he tried to reform health care?

Also, Obama is surrounded by strong banking lobby, here are some of them:
"¢ Mark Patterson, a former Goldman Sachs lobbyist, who is the chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (himself the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

"¢ Reuben Jeffery III, former managing partner at Goldman Sachs, who holds the post of undersecretary of state for economic, business, and agricultural affairs.

"¢ Neel Kashkari, former Goldman Sachs vice president, who is the assistant secretary of the treasury for financial stability, responsible for administering the TARP funds.

"¢ Dianna Farrell, former financial analyst at Goldman Sachs, who serves as deputy director of the National Economic Council.

Completely agree with your comments

Completely agree with your comments on this - thanks for taking the time to post.