Top 10 at 10: Brazil-style capital controls?; 'US more duck than phoenix'; Congressional mood turning ugly; Dilbert

Posted in News November 20, 2009 - 09:44am, Bernard Hickey

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and comments below or please email your suggestions for Monday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz We never mention anyone's ears at interest.co.nz, although we are happy to accept criticism of my hair. 1. Oops - One-time Obama supporter Paul Krugman argues at the New York Times that the appalling bailout of AIG has reduced the chances of a second stimulus package, which Krugman wants to see happen. He now sees a big risk of a Japanese style lost decade because voters won't allow a second stimulus.

Brad DeLong says that the loss of public trust due to the kid-gloves treatment of bankers has raised the probability of another Great Depression, because the public won't support another round of bailouts even if it becomes desperately necessary. I agree "” but I think the bigger cost is that we've greatly increased the chance of a Japanese-style lost decade, with I would now give roughly even odds of happening. Why? Because bank-friendly policies have squandered public trust in all government action: try talking to the general public about stimulus, and it's all confounded in their minds with the deeply unpopular bailouts. By itself, the AIG story would be damaging enough. But it's part of a pattern "” and that pattern has ended up undermining the economy's prospects, big time.

2. More duck than phoenix - Nouriel Roubini writes in the Globe and Mail of a Tale of Two American economies.

There is a smaller one that is slowly recovering and a larger one that is still in a deep and persistent downturn. Consider the following facts. While America's official unemployment rate is already 10.2 per cent, the figure jumps to a whopping 17.5 per cent when discouraged workers and partially employed workers are included. And, while data from firms suggest that job losses in the past three months were about 600,000, household surveys, which include self-employed workers and small entrepreneurs, suggest a number above two million. So, while the United States may technically be close to the end of a severe recession, most of America is facing a near-depression. Little wonder, then, that few Americans believe that what walks like a duck and quacks like a duck is actually the phoenix of recovery.

3. Capital controls? - Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, writes at The Baseline Scenario about the challenge facing developing economies as low US rates sparks a flood of carry trade capital into economies like Brazil, India and China. He might have also mentioned commodity currencies such as New Zealand and Australia as well. Subramanian suggests coordinated capital controls. Should we throw this into the Pandora's box that Phil Goff has opened by saying New Zealand should abandon its orthodoxy of only using the Official Cash Rate to target inflation alone? My gut feel is no, but it's a new world out there. It is rather frustrating for New Zealand to sit on the sidelines being slowly strangled while America and the rest print money to devalue their economies and fire up their export sectors.

Time and again we have learnt (or rather failed to learn) that large foreign capital flows to emerging markets are not sustainable (Latin America 1982; Asia 1997-98; and Eastern Europe 2008). Think of this: if sophisticated regulatory systems such as those in the US and Europe cannot avoid financial crises, how much more vulnerable are emerging markets? So, how should emerging market countries respond? Is it time for them to impose serious restrictions on capital flows? In answering these questions, two points must be kept in mind: this policy challenge is going to be around for some time, at least as long as the Fed keeps interest rates low; and second, because the cause of the increased flows is common to all countries, namely Fed policy, it will be a policy challenge not just for individual countries but for emerging markets as a group. Chile in the early 1990s and Malaysia in the wake of the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s are the two poster boys for serious capital account restrictions. The evidence on their effects"”in limiting flows and preventing currency overvaluation"”is contested because restrictions can be circumvented. But Carmen Reinhart and Nicholas Magud suggest that their effects cannot be dismissed. Going forward, there is the technical question of how best to design restrictions on flows: Should they be price-based or quantity-based? What kinds of flows are best addressed, debt or portfolio? When should they be withdrawn? The IMF should deploy its considerable technical expertise to help answer these questions. But there is also the political issue of removing the stigma from countries that want to impose serious capital controls. Brazil recently botched its attempt at such controls because the policy action was half-hearted, anxious about the reaction of markets. One possibility could be coordinated restrictions on capital flows action by a set of emerging markets that could be blessed by the G-20. No doubt this would be risky, perhaps even counter-productive, but in these unusual times no policy option should be off limits, at least for discussion.

4. Tide shifting - The print and borrow policies of America, the UK, Europe and Japan are putting the global trade and monetary systems under real pressure. Investors are borrowing at near zero percent rates in the US and pumping that capital into emerging economies such as Brazil, China and India, as well as developed commodity economies such as Australia, NZ, South Africa and Canada. Those economies with floating exchange rates are effectively been squeezed out by the 'beggar thy neighbour' devaluations of the delinquents. So some are starting to revolt. Brazil's tax on foreign capital flows into its stock and bond markets was the first (flawed) attempt. Last night Brazil shut down a loophole for the tax, sparking fresh debate on a wider move to impose such controls. Indonesia and India are also eyeing controls, the FT reported.

So far most emerging market economies have managed the problem by intervening in currency markets to slow the appreciation of their currencies. However, Brazil and Taiwan have taken more dramatic action, imposing capital controls designed to limit the appreciation of their currencies. Speculation has risen that other countries will follow their lead. "Recent measures from Brazil and Taiwan curbing capital inflows send a clear signal: emerging market policymakers are far away from accepting a sustained reallocation of portfolio capital from the west, and its liquidity and currency implications," said David Bloom at HSBC. Indeed, the Indonesian rupiah dropped sharply after the country's central bank said it was considering steps to limit inflows on Thursday. Darmin Nasution, deputy governor of Bank Indonesia, said the central bank was "seriously" studying the option of limiting inflows into short-term government bonds. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee lost ground on reports that the government was planning set quotas on corporate foreign borrowing in a bid to stem the rupee's advance.

89 Comments

by Roger Thompson | 20 Nov 09, 10:15am

PGG Wrightsons to raise $

PGG Wrightsons to raise $ 180 million thru a 9 for 8 share placement @ 45 cents . 401 million new shares to be issued . This company has a bad case of the " uglies " about it . Is Eric the Eel on the board ?

by andy hamilton | 20 Nov 09, 10:32am

Following on from our discussion

Following on from our discussion about the NZ oil and gas sector this is just out:

http://www.nzx.com/news/economy/3082498/Report-calls-for-SOE-based-on-Ku...

Favoured option seems to be SOE (part privatised).

by Marky Mark | 20 Nov 09, 10:34am

#1 My sympathies are with

My sympathies are with the public rather than Mr Krugman. When his deficit funded fiscal stimulus and cheap money solution doesn't seem to be working he doesn't reconsider whether or not it was the right strategy and whether a change of tack is required he merely concludes that the dosage was too small and Govt/Fed couldn't have borrowed, printed and spent enough.

Although the American public don't like bailouts there will always be constant calls from all quarters for the Govt to "do something" (and that something won't be to slash spending and increase taxes). The obvious things to do are to chuck money at the states, high profile gimmicks ('cash for clunkers'), provision of 'guarantees' rather than cash bailouts, and have the Fed do all the dirty work as far as bailouts are concerned.

by Wally | 20 Nov 09, 10:35am

Get ready for it...it's coming...listen

Get ready for it...it's coming...listen now...."NOOOOOOO" ....that was John Key in reply to the OECD call for action.

by rc | 20 Nov 09, 10:40am

Andy Sounds good. Certainly a

Andy

Sounds good. Certainly a step in the right direction.

by Wally | 20 Nov 09, 10:48am

I am trying to put

I am trying to put a happy face on the monster emerging from the economic pooh but try as I might..I keep getting a fright...come along Bill..give us a thrill...tell us you're going to make a start and please don't just stand there are let out a ...oh what a bugger things are so bad and everyone desperate not to be sad.

by Troy | 20 Nov 09, 10:49am

@Andy There is no reason

@Andy

There is no reason why the NZD shouldn't be seriously considered a petro-currency. It's one of the arguments I make as to why the kiwi $ is still undervalued. I know plenty of exporters hate to hear that"¦but it's the truth.

by Kristian J | 20 Nov 09, 10:53am

9. The buzz of significant

9. The buzz of significant restructuring bodes well for National who can disassociate themselves from the tax decisions they're likely to put through next year (ish). Although the signalling appears intentional any moves will be welcomed. A change in tax policy could make this Govt a great one, enough to tell to your grandkids, ''Twas the year of two-thousand and ten when Sir Key and Lord English made history again...""

by Les Rudd | 20 Nov 09, 11:02am

Hot off the PEC press...

'Phil Goff's decision to seek a more equitable monetary policy is welcomed by the Productive Economy Council'

It's good to finally see a politician stand up and say we have got it wrong with our monetary policy and it's time to fix it, says Selwyn Pellett the spokesperson for the Productive Economy Council.

But Labour's shift in position is only the first step in what promises to be a bitter fight about the future of our economy. The business community is clearly divided into two camps; those that make their money from exports, creating jobs and earning the country's foreign exchange and who are thus heavily penalized by our volatile dollar and tax regime, and those who profit from the current system, exploiting the tax system and shifting exchange rate to their advantage and the county's detriment.

"While exporters and farmers will welcome Labour's new focus on getting the fundamentals of our economy right, those in favour of the status quo represent a powerful lobby group both numerically and in terms of funding ability," says Pellett.

"They have benefited from our dysfunctional economy for so long, that they appear to have mistaken what is good for them as being what is good for the country as a whole, even when there is a mountain of solid evidence to the contrary," he says.

"You only have to look at the comments from people like Phil O'Reilly of Business New Zealand, who has said: "The decision to ditch the consensus is based on a fallacy - that our monetary policy is the root cause of our often high and volatile currency. In fact the root cause of the problem is our unproductive economy which is failing to attract investment inflows and is instead attracting speculative inflows." And: "It undermines international trust in the stability of the New Zealand's economic environment which has been painstakingly built up over the last two decades."

"The stability of our economy? Mr O'Reilly, an ex Westpac employee and now CEO of Business New Zealand, might like to quote figures around how much debt our economy has taken on in the last two decades or how our exports have been in decline for the last six years. He might want to tell the New Zealand public that four Australian banks in 2008 made $3.6 billion in profit from New Zealand activities while the top 46 NZX companies only managed to make a total of $2.8 billion. He could go on to say that our dollar was traded 118 times our Gross Domestic Product, but he doesn't. At a 118 times GPD that figure is almost double Australia and ten times that of South Korea. He could then go on and say what foreign exchange traders mean when they say "high yielding currencies like the Kiwi and Australian dollar" but that might actually explain what's been going on under our current monetary policy and how FX traders make so much money," says Pellett.

"The stability of our economy is an illusion. What Phil O'Reilly is really talking about is the "stability" of a system that allows one part of the business sector - the banks, foreign exchange traders and property speculators - to reap rewards at the expense of the rest of the economy. There is no balance, and until we achieve a balance that enables our export businesses to flourish, our economy will continue to be on a downward spiral. That downward spiral will eventually hit even those who think there is no need to change. There is only so much money you can generate from an economy that has limited production, and to try and separate the issue of our low productivity from our monetary policy shows a lack of understanding about what is actually going on," says Pellett.

"Then we have John Key's comments this morning about New Zealand having the world's "best practice in monetary policy". That is clearly untrue. The facts don't support Mr Key's position and as an ex-foreign currency trader himself he must surely know that. Singapore is currently No 9 in GDP per capita in the world and we are no 46. Mr Key needs to explain how, if we do have best practice, why so many countries that don't have our monetary policy rank in the top twenty in Global GDP per capita. In 1965 Singapore was No 42 in GDP/capita and New Zealand was No 11. If we have best practice where are the results?" NZMEA have today released an article on the policies Singapore implemented that lead to this massive turnaround: http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/20/opinion-what-ne...

"Singapore's monetary policy has served them well for decades. In the last six months, their economy has grown by 8.6% in non-annualized terms, making up all but 2% of the output lost during the recession. When you have such a successful model of an economy that balances the needs of all sectors within it, to achieve prosperity even when it has little natural resources, you'd be a fool not to take a hard look at whether that model could have benefits here," he says.

"The Prime Minister criticises Labour for making an about face on this issue when they stuck to the status quo through nine years of government. He's right, they did stick to the status quo. But I'd rather have politicians admit that they got it wrong eventually and look for better solutions, than stick slavishly to an entrenched position because they believe it is the politically astute thing to do. The Productive Economy Council welcomes Labour's reassessment of its policies and can only hope that National will eventually also find the will to set politics aside and put the future of the country first."

"We are a problem solving nation and yet we limit so many of our options because of political positioning. It's time we reminded all politicians that they are here to serve the best interests of the people, not the other way around," says Pellett.

Well said PEC!

by andy hamilton | 20 Nov 09, 11:02am

Troy - there is no

Troy - there is no doubt that should (and I think its very likely) discoveries continue in the Taranaki basin area (let alone in the other basins) that the Kiwi will take on at least some of the aura of a petro-currency. This issue certainly needs consideration NOW rather than 5 years down the line.

Again it might be useful to look at the example of the UK during the period 1980-2005; there is little doubt the Pound derived considerable support from North Sea oil - much to the detriment of UK exporters - during that period there were numerous claims that the Pound was over-valued.

As I said yesterday I just hope policy makers are closely studying the Norwegian versus the UK model of North sea exploitation as to what we should learn. Structures need to be put in place NOW, not arranged in an ad hoc manner years down the track.

by Roger Thompson | 20 Nov 09, 11:23am

andy : Are you suggesting

andy : Are you suggesting that our policy makers need to look beyond the next election ? Bit of a radical , aren't you . Isn't " ad hoc " in our national anthem .................. ' Ad hoc the SOE's to the Yanks . Thanks .

by Wally | 20 Nov 09, 11:29am

Right...holiday time...December again....govt to close

Right...holiday time...December again....govt to close down...to do less than the current nothing if that were possible....caretaker list of Ministers in charge to be drawn up...instructions to be left, so caretakers know, the answer to questions, is always "NO".

by Troy | 20 Nov 09, 11:30am

@Andy Now that is something

@Andy

Now that is something I want to see. Well planned infrastructure full stop. That goes for internet access here too. We need to stop doing this piecemeal and do it right the second time. We still have a solid window of opportunity to leap frog and take advantage of the fact that we are not too invested in a particular technology. The US on the other hand is in an economic time out and will soon fall off the list of quality internet providers.

We don't need central planning we just need high-quality technology partners. The government is good at long term slow and low ROI projects. While business is good at market efficiency. Get government to build it right and have business bid on it.

by Roger Thompson | 20 Nov 09, 11:56am

The height of irony that

The height of irony that US Congressmen are bleating that the Chinese are not playing fair . That the Yuan peg to the $US is costing jobs , and creating economic imbalances...........And the Federal Reverse , cranking up the printing presses , pumping out trillions of $ into the world's economies is doing what , guys ?

by powerdownkiwi | 20 Nov 09, 12:11pm

All things being equal,you'd think

All things being equal,you'd think a finite resource left in the ground, would get relatively more valuable.
Depends whether Shylock is after your pound of flesh, of course...

by LearnToSocialDance | 20 Nov 09, 12:14pm

What would happen if we

What would happen if we pegged the NZ dollar to the Chinese Yuan?

by Steve | 20 Nov 09, 12:28pm

I always enjoy the Onion

I always enjoy the Onion News Network. Thanks for posting it here for a bit of light relief. For more unrelated humour, my favorite quote of the year:

"Members of Congress should be compelled to wear uniforms like Nascar drivers, so we could identify their corporate sponsors."

Oh, and on #7 - cummon - are the REALLY surprised? He ain't no Martin Luther King... Of course he is not in it for Main St. Without eating Main St 'plankton' for breakie, Wall St would have to eat itself - and that would be bad in the long term for party donations; social functions, and congressional... oops I mean corporate sponsorships.

by Greg out West | 20 Nov 09, 2:39pm

@ Powerdownkiwi I think it's

@ Powerdownkiwi

I think it's obvious that our genius politicians have left the finite resource in the ground until now, and they will pounce with a brilliant plan to extricate those resources just in time to send NZ right back to the top of the oecd again.

Given the available models from around the world showing the right way to do it and the huge political advantage in being the people to introduce said brilliant plan I think it's only a matter of time before we are all using mink toilet paper and buying ferraris for our kids.

by Kate | 20 Nov 09, 2:49pm

Here's a bit of interest:

A blog on LAQC Losses and Working for Families;

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/MessageBoard/Messages.aspx?id=69068

Should be headed: How to buy a rental, lose money, and fleece the taxpayer 101

by Wally | 20 Nov 09, 2:56pm

Hey Kate, any reason why

Hey Kate, any reason why I can't put the dogs name down and claim WFF?

by David | 20 Nov 09, 3:05pm

Les Rudd quotes Selwyn Pellet

Les Rudd quotes Selwyn Pellet "four Australian banks in 2008 made $3.6 billion in profit from New Zealand activities while the top 46 NZX companies only managed to make a total of $2.8 billion".
Is it any wonder we are struggling to find domestic capital, the parasite has now gorged on the host, bled it white!
Pellet is making TPTB squirm, top marks but is Key going to listen?

"The stability of our economy is an illusion. What Phil O'Reilly is really talking about is the "stability" of a system that allows one part of the business sector "“ the banks, foreign exchange traders and property speculators "“ to reap rewards at the expense of the rest of the economy."
Brilliant!

by powerdownkiwi | 20 Nov 09, 4:35pm

Greg out West - you

Greg out West - you ain't seen my kids drive....

David - " It the ........ people allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered".

Thomas Jefferson in 1780 something......

Ring any bells?

by Emkay | 20 Nov 09, 5:59pm

Capital controls-An idea whose time

Capital controls-An idea whose time has come ?

As per Arvind Subramanian
quote
Now, foreign capital can be good for emerging markets because it brings down the cost of capital for domestic firms, provides finance, facilitates greater investment, and boosts growth
Unquote
Is New Zealand getting inflow of foreign funds (either directly or through Banks) into many productive purposes to help domestic manufacturing or trade or exports, facilitating greater investment ? Debatable.
Is NZ an emerging market ? Or only a market for forex trading ?

by SORER-LOSER | 20 Nov 09, 7:34pm

This is convoluted, so beer

This is convoluted, so beer with me......I have had a sore day....

Ya have to read the ADD linked first........all ROGERS fault....and no not the one in the ADD.

Read the address and name plate..too....then follow the RANT.

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Trade-me-property/Lifestyle-property/auction-25...

Then read on....

A new school of thought for those ROGGERED........... DOUGLAS disciples.

I thunk it was ROGER-KNOME-ICS

Same .....old hat....but still standing. Sell orf the ASSETS....to get us out of DEBT.

Needs a good tidy up, maybe a good investment, though out on a limb.

Shakespeare nearby....or am I in the wrong country....I shall not dignify that with a YES......just yet. I live in HOPE.

Until then ..... I am only here for the beer...home brew or otherwise.

Seen more idiots in charge here than the SHYLOCK's need to keep em in POWER.

A Capital suggestion...

REPLACE ALL POLLIES.....especially those in WELLINGTON...in the hive of industrial blather.

Why not just have a BENEVOLENT DICTATOR...like BARNEY...then we would only need one of em...and then my Mates from CHINA could BAIL us out too.

Who needs banks....We could be part of the FIJIIAN solution....made in CHINA.

After all, We are a little island or two surrounded by SHARKS.

What would a few more ADD....(see it all fits)....keep reading...

A CHINESE BURN.. thats wot...........is that coals to the NEW-CASTLE....go on EXPORT yerself.

(Last of the canned beers)....hence the references....sorry.

See I could be a GOfth.....and make silly suggestions to think I am intelligble, not tipsy.

...me again..

I personally do not want a COAL-ITION of these idiots...However much they want to send COALs to NEWCASTLE...or drink the ale.

By the way.. a seg-way......if we really discover OIL, does that mean we will be INVADED too..

Maybe that is why they want to BUY the SKYHAWKS, ...a forward THUNKER this OBAMA.......or is CHINA closer....never was good at seeing the big picture.

That HELL-en was smart...to MOTHBALL em shite-hawks....we could get invaded with our own AIRCRAFT.

Bush must be spinning....He should have come to terms with the possibility in his second term....

THAT IS HOW DUMB THE AMERICANS ARE....ONCE WAS NEVER ENUFF.

BUSH-ED...and BUSH WHACKED.

And we had 3 terms of our own financial whizz-ards, these past years.....and then we get another BUNCH of bananas, mon-key-ing around.

JUST SHOWS HOW DUMB WE ARE....

From 4th in earnings per head of POP.....then from BANKRUPT to BANKRUPTED....in 3 decades.

GENIUS.......maybe what we all deserve for being so COMPLACENT...and half witted for actually WORKING.

The other HALF WITTED are NOT, they are stealing.

DUMB huh....

Certainly not our ELECTED officials......UN-FORTUNE-ately.

SEG-WAY BACK......

Rotorua cops get mobile.....should have bought CHINESE EELCTRIC BIKES from MY mates.....seg-way...in-deed and in FACT...

(ya get yer moneys worth here.....if NOWHERE ELSE).

Wakey Wakey...NZ.

Now was that succinct...or too convoluted.....Who cares.....REALLY.

More than my JOBS-WORTH ...GUV........eh JOHN.

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by Iain Parker | 21 Nov 09, 2:54am

Les, very nice peice. But,

Les, very nice peice.
But, as per:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/10/23/opinion-why-new...

My friends at NZMEA I must once again note my caution at promoting policy from a nation that is so very different in so many ways and my impression of it would be unless we want to become a low paid reprocessing sweat shop for the worlds largest multinational corporations, I suggest we would want to stay well clear of it.
Les, you have already shown the historical presidence of successful public credit models of the past, lets keep it simple and focused and well clear of replacing our current capatalist dictatorship, with another, lets look at replacing it with a democratic capatalist society of equal economic opportunity.

by Iain Parker | 21 Nov 09, 2:56am

Les, if you want some

Les, if you want some scary reading over the weekend, check out my latest offering from Ruth Richardson:
http://publiccreditorbust.blog.com/2009/10/07/ruth-richardson-takes-the-...

by steven | 21 Nov 09, 3:17pm

@Marky Mark: #1 "My sympathies

@Marky Mark: #1 "My sympathies are with the public rather than Mr Krugman." Then you are in sync with PK, you should read in detail what he says. He wants to get un-employment down as the over-riding policy. The stimulus is just that, there to keep ppl in work or get them back into work.

The stimulus was too small I/he think(s), but more importantly it was diluted with tax cuts and pork barrel politics to get it through that returned poor value for money, or if you will poor multipliers compared to one of injections into projects.

Indeed I generally agree with you, the money has been spent poorly in some if not many cases, but PK also says this. Cash for clunkers is a joke...its just a subsidy for Ford and GM to keep going and not for them to turn their businesses in a new direction ie hybrids and all electrics, re-ttol in other words...I can understand why its been sppent so badly, the Democrats are desperate to stop their heartland dying on them but die it will I think.....it should have reformed over the last 10~15 years but didnt, now its paying the price for that.

@Wally, indeed the water has been murky, but now the monster that is multiple asset bubbles all over the word fueled by cheap money and a gambler free for all is near the surface...its seems to have many heads, many mouths and lots of sharp teeth....pretty it isnt.

@Kristian J: Like "Sir" Dodgy Roger Douglas you mean? infamy is more like it...

I think Shylock has had is pound of flesh but now he's after the interest, currently I suspect its both legs and arms...

regards

by Mark Hubbard | 21 Nov 09, 3:46pm

The stimulus was too small

Oh for Christ's sake, this site really is no good for my heart. The current US stimulunacy package is 'almost' of a size unseen in the history of western economies.

This graph ( http://zfacts.com/p/318.html ) shows how national debt in the US as a percentage of GDP has never been higher other than during WWII.

Graphs showing the increases in the US money supply are downright apocalyptic; look at these three graphs - http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2009/02/graphs-us-money-supply.html - especially the third graph, M0, the monetary base (currency plus central bank reserves), the portion of the money supply directly controlled by the Federal Reserve, the line has gone vertical.

Look at even the other posts in this blog, including Neville's last article. The out of control ongoing creation and increase of the money supply in the US is now so huge, it is distorting completely global business: look at the currency situation vis a vis US and all other economies, especially the developing economies. The current stimulunacy program in the States may well now unavoidably be heading the world economy to a much worse bust than we have just seen.

And you think the stimulus is too small!

Also, the stimulunacy in the US has been shown as an abject failure regarding employment: the US unemployment rate continues to rise, despite Obama said the stimulus was going to 'create' jobs: as in NZ, the only jobs saved and grown have been public sector jobs, which is making an ongoing worse crisis even more a of dead certainty.

The only solution is a return to sound money, get rid of central banks, and slash the size of the State down to minarchy. The Big State has to fall upon its sword, although, of course, we know it will never do so, preferring to eat the hand that feeds it first.

by SORER-LOSER | 21 Nov 09, 3:53pm

Death by a thousand cuts...MARK...

However, it will never happen...to them. They got the POWER.

SPEND-THRIFTS......what is it to be.....I know SPEND...just a small stimulus.

I am at a loss.....but then so are many MILLIONS, because of these idiots.

by powerdownkiwi | 22 Nov 09, 6:32am

Mark - 2 out of

Mark - 2 out of 3.

Sound money? Yes.
Rid of Central Banks? as they currently stand -yes.
Minarchy - there we differ. You problem is that a society need rules, needs to debate them, and needs to tread the fine line between having South Auckland, and having the Bastille stormed.

Oh- and society has to take responsibility for it's actions. Maturity, mea culpa, stuff like that.

Good luck with the heart - try a change in lifestyle?

by Wally | 22 Nov 09, 8:26am

Just had a cup of

Just had a cup of stimulus. Good start to Sunday. Oh look...gold is the talk of the town and even the rabbits have started in on the act...it's true...I can see where they've been digging for the stuff in the bank out the back of the long drop. Look out for rabbits with gold chains. I see the plumbers have removed the half eated pie from the internals of the super banger at Cern and expect to solve the economic riddle pretty soon now. Can't wait..can you?. Some other scientists are sick with worry it would seem at discovering the sun is set to cark it in just 2 or 3 billion years and not hang around for 8. According to them we have to plan to bugger off to Mars. !
This is the level of idiocy in the world today. On the one hand...those that believe a mystical power will save them from natural disaster but somehow is not responsible for the disaster to start with....and those who are booking their seats to escape to Mars in exactly 2500000000 years from now, with Virgin of course!

by Roger Thompson | 22 Nov 09, 8:57am

Heard a GOLD advert on

Heard a GOLD advert on Radio Pathetic this a.m. COMEX is coming to town . Roll up the spruikers . Forget property , that's passe . Leverage up on precious metals is the new wonder of the investment world ( where were these bozos 3 or 4 years ago , when GOLD was a quarter of today's price ) . Gold . Gold . Gold . Oi . Oi. Oi . ............... Sounds a tadge over the top Australian , doesn't it !

by Wally | 22 Nov 09, 9:17am

The answer is properly trained

The answer is properly trained Rabbits. Seriously now...we've got the dogs busting a gut doing all the mustering work for a cheap biscuit and a wallow in the nearest water hollow...how hard could it be to teach Rabbits to dig for nuggets! No no not in Noddyland...the greenies would never allow it and we would have ten thousand marching through Auckland protesting on the rights of Rabbits...this would only work in Australia....set up a company "BunnyNuggets", promise some media mates the inside running and then do an IPO...say twenty million shares at 50 cents each!...the Rabbits are free over there....plenty of gold country and easy Rabbit ground...train them with the real McCoy bought with the IPO...one lettuce for a nugget...would work a treat.

by Steven | 22 Nov 09, 9:45am

@Mark H: I think you

@Mark H: I think you are mis-reading me. The stimulus is indeed huge, what Im saying is it isnt big enough for the size of the hole, not that it isnt big enough and I want more I actually dont think it should have got this far. So Im saying it isnt big enough to solve the problem and its effect was and is diluted...its main counter effect is to produce huge moral hazard where bankers gamble on things to pay high enough return to get them out of the poo they are/were in and not for any sound logic. They are rushing to gamle with others money before they get caught out and have to come clean knowing full well there is no come back on them (then they go bankrupt). So its a win-win from their point of view....totally amoral IMHO. Now there is a call for a second round, but from my personal view is only spend where there is a clear return, the first for me has just about failed principally because it has not helped those who really needed it. So the second I think will fail. Also the second would help keep the insolvent banks going, these are to core of the problem, the US Govn wont fix the issues so the US is buggered (so us to) until they do. So no there should be no second round forcing the bad banks to fail. It means a huge hit, but otherwise its death by a thousand cuts, Japan has clearly shown no fix, no recovery.

The policy can only be shown to be a failure where it can be shown to have had no net positive effect....Obama et al never said un-employment would not rise with this....they said it wouldnt rise as much...So when some sane analysis is done it seems to show that the policy has to a degree worked as it was intended to, but not well enough. My concern is creating dead end jobs without some sort of transition to "real" jobs is not a viable solution, we needed to move on, what seems to be happening is rebuilding in the same old energy intensive badly cracked mold....

The only solution? ie yours? no lots of viable ones...more regulation and criminal sentences for the greedy and in-competent to start with...if the ppl done rise up and hang them of course.....

I think you missed reading what was below one of your graphs,

"In the Great Depression, Roosevelt tried deficit spending, but he was too timid. Then he stopped in 1937 and the economy nose-dived. "

So a clear warning that sensible ppl should be proecting their wealth and assets in the short term and not be rushing to make more money....huge risk still.

"The only way out of this, if we don't want to wait 10 years, is for the government to spend, pay unemployment insurance, or give tax breaks to people who will spend (not the rich). Of course there's also the problem of the banks. Obama should stop saving the bankers, and just take over the bad banks. Once they're working they can be sold back to the private sector."

by Mark Hubbard | 22 Nov 09, 10:06am

â€œIn the Great Depression, Roosevelt

"In the Great Depression, Roosevelt tried deficit spending, but he was too timid. Then he stopped in 1937 and the economy nose-dived. "

You seem to have economics precisely the wrong way around. Hoover was the first big interventionist into the market, kicking off the Depression, then Roosevelt's New Deal prolonged the effects of that Depression by up to a decade. And all the current stimulunacy packages are repeating the whole thing over, with just as much at stake.

If you do nothing else today read - the disaster called the New Deal:

http://mises.org/daily/3234

And Rothbard is always relevant - economic depressions their cause and cure:

http://mises.org/tradcycl/econdepr.asp

Then test your (wrong-headed) ideas against the articles in the Mises Bailout Reader:

http://mises.org/story/3128

And then tell me this stimulunacy is not big enough 'for the size of the hole'. (It's creating a black hole, and America risks dragging the world into it again.)

And by the way, that hole you're talking about, toxic assets: that was real peoples savings who now can't retire in the US. And this stimulanacy is setting the next generation up to have their savings destroyed (for those who can still save after paying the voracious tax increases that are going to be required).

by Wally | 22 Nov 09, 10:12am

The economy is like a

The economy is like a 1960s holden..the rust filled with bog and the box missing all but low gear and reverse. The engine is stuffed. But stimulus arrives to tow the heap to the top of a hill..from a distance the economy will look almost new as it coasts down the slope. Such a quiet engine too. No blue smoke at all. Look at it go. Quick, sell it before it gets to the bottom!

by Mark Hubbard | 22 Nov 09, 10:17am

And another point to add

And another point to add to my above post. Steven said:

Think about where that money comes from. Again, your prescription is precisely what got us here, and what will make it worse.

The Austrian fix to this crisis is:

Passively:

1. Allow liquidation of bankrupt firms and debt - do not embark on these insane bailouts.
2. Allow prices to fall, deflation (no monetary inflation), as deflation restores the value of money.
3. Do not prop up employment (no stimulus packages)
4. Give no assurances against failure (no nationalisations for Christ's sake)
5. Do not discourage "hoarding," i.e., saving

And on the active side of the ledger, reduce entirely the size of government; budget, taxes, legislation regulation - slash and burn.

In this way we fix the problems caused by the distortions of Nanny State, and get to free ourselves from her.

by Roger Thompson | 22 Nov 09, 10:55am

Mark : Given the monstrous

Mark : Given the monstrous size of the government , thanks to Helen & Michael , don't we risk a depression if we pare it down too quickly ? Cut it to size we must , and perhaps set a limit , say 25 % of GDP . But a Rogernomics quick fix may give us a second financial collapse .

by Neven911 | 22 Nov 09, 1:36pm

Roger You are of course

Roger

You are of course correct, but bear in mind that libertarians like Mark are idealististic and stoic and don't see an issue with a bit of suffering to 'fix' the issues with society, but only if it doesn't affect them.

Neven

by Mark Hubbard | 22 Nov 09, 1:47pm

Bullshit Neven. The hardships of

Bullshit Neven. The hardships of the financial crisis are government induced. No Libertarianz member believes on us winning an election we can get to a minarchy overnight: it took something like four and five generations of 'entitlement mentality' to get us to this defining point NZ society is reaching, having to borrow $250 million a week just to keep the State propped up - so enslaving the next generation of productive (those that are left) to a huge tax bill - and thus it will probably take two generations to correct it.

The most important thing is that every government action be toward reducing the role of government and the size of the State, not the other way around as it still is under National.

But on your point of the cause of suffering, and hattip to Peter Cresswell's twitter links, I've just been reading a fascinating piece on the evil of this National governments increasing Mercantilism, here:

http://www.silva.co.nz/index.asp?page=http://www.silva.co.nz/institute/A...

Especially applicable to your phrase, the second to last paragraph, quote:

"The Wall Street Journal got it in one when it said, "To the annals of global warming lunacy, add this gem from New Zealand: According to a parliamentary committee, Kiwis should accept lower standards of living to protect the national image abroad."

This is the sort of thing that can happen when bureaucrats become policy makers. "

So, you were saying what about suffering Neven?

by Mark Hubbard | 22 Nov 09, 1:56pm

Oh, the interesting thing is,

Oh, the interesting thing is, I bet most of the posters here, including the economists, if pushed are believers of Mercantilism. I constantly see such polices pushed.

by Roger Thompson | 22 Nov 09, 2:13pm

Oooooooooh , I can feel

Oooooooooh , I can feel the pain is gonna begin soon . 'Though I hadn't given National any credit for playing tootsies with the big mercantile states ( US / China / Japan ) . Basically , the Nats. have always been too blithering stupid to see a trade-trap , if it whopped them over the bonse . Labour on the other hand , they are sharp , they are sneaky little oinks . Cunliffe's sudden embrace of " interest.co.nz " being a case in point . Where were you prior to 2009 , Davy boy , we were here ? And why don't you answer questions , but just pop up when it suits for an article , or a cosy tete a tete with mine host .........Hmmmmmm ?

by SORER-LOSER | 22 Nov 09, 2:21pm

There is plenty of work

There is plenty of work for the IDLE to do. Most of NEW ZEALANDs problems are caused by IDLE HANDS.

If the infrastructure of NZ had benefit-ed from those IDLE hands, I would not have minded so much.

What HELL-en and her crone-ies did was encourage the IDLE to do what they do best, do nothing, without fear of CONTRIBUTION, or BENEFIT to the improvement of New Zealand as a HOLE, a hole that She and her CRONE-ies actually created, by the way. It used to be a far nicer place.

I know it is not sensible to WARN TOURISTS, that we are crime ridden and fraudulent, but we actually should point out that this is NOT the SAFE HAVEN they should EXPECT.

Shon-KEY buildings, massive debt and half the POPULATION on make work schemes, not PRODUCTIVE work schemes to the benefit of us all.

When you look at the TOTAL funds LOST by crooks, politicians and layabouts, to BENEFIT the GREEDY NEFARIOUS, PONZI, THIEVING HANDOVER yer money crew, I despair.

Just think what could have been done with a willing workforce, sensibly paid and motivated to ensure that we ALL had a wonderful future, instead of the bleak prospects that lie ahead.

It is not ALLl about the MONEY, but the LOST opportunities, it could have provided.

No wonder there are more KIWIS working and living abroad, than we care to think of.

The STUPID thing is they went for a BETTER life, when they could have had it here in GODS-ZONE, if they had stayed and contributed, instead of being PENALISED by HELL-en and CULL-ed em to befit the LAYABOUTs we see hanging around our cities and towns...here today.

Unlike the UK, we should not import ANY more. We have enough of our own.

Getting all those MAKE-WORK people, back into CONSTRUCTIVE work will be a real challenge....and no that was not another " REAL ESTATE" challenge.

It takes the BISCUIT, when GRIFFINS moves PRODUCTION offshore to the very ISLAND that we keep PROPPED up with aid, which is a FARCE of DICTATORIAL proportions.

It will not be RICH TEA biscuits, nor AFGHANS...but FIJIANS we will be making....and propping up BARNEY with, selling us OUT twice into the BARGAIN. GO- FIGURE.

I am all for AID, but not at the cost of all NEW ZEALANDERS jobs.

IRONIC HUH.

The MENTAL-ity, that want to import RICH IMMIGRANTS to provide jobs is ludicrous, when we already had them, but they were MISS-MANAGED and over TAXED and NON-PRODUCTIVE under HELL-ens regime and no better under JOHN's.

No wonder, we encourage the PRODUCTIVE sector people to move off shore, it is only SENSIBLE under the CURRENT conditions.

MAKE ME WANT TO STAY, is all I ask of the new GOVERNMENT. You HAD the mandate...USE it.

They have had a year and done basically NOTHING, except annoy me and most THINKING people who still misguidedly... WORK here.

As BERNARD rightly points out, we should all post a letter, explaining WHY we left.

The last sensible person, please switch off the lights as you leave NZ.

The idiots will only leave em BURNING....they do not have to PAY their ELECTRICITY BILLS.........WE do.

WAKEY WAKEY NZ.

PS...MARCHING IS GOOD....keep it up. That might actually wake up JOHN and HIS crone-ies, if they can ever get their snouts out of yours and MY trough.

by Roger Thompson | 22 Nov 09, 2:26pm

Shame we had to go

Shame we had to go to war with the Afghans . I do miss their choccie biscuits , the ones with the walnut on top . Sweet memory ..........Ahhhhhhhhhh !

by powerdownkiwi | 22 Nov 09, 5:13pm

My Granny used to 'make'

My Granny used to 'make' afghans - I had no idea what she was up to........

With respect - most of you are ignoring the biggie - there isn't the energy supply left (remember it's all stored solar energy, coal was trees and oil was little things wot died) to repay the 'debt' currently held - particularly by the USA.

And remember that much of the recently invested 'wealth' didn't ever exist. Most of it was based on artificial re-valuations of existing assets (which were then used as collateral) and on an assumption that global capital would keep on gaining at an exponential rate, even as the underwriting (energy supply) hit a plateau.

All false assumptions.

Lotta bunnies out there, Wally, not just the long-furry-eared kind :)

by Neven911 | 22 Nov 09, 5:39pm

Mark I get the impression

Mark

I get the impression you are good with numbers so heres a few for you, based on the fact that you consider "suffering" having to accept a lower standard of living than we have now then I presume that you'd aspire for NZers to have the same "standard" of living as a European or an American, The problem is that the US has less than 5% of the world poplulation and consumes 25% of the worlds resources, so explain to me how we all can achieve this level of consumerism. Are you so blind?

Strangely i don't disagree that we need less state involvement, less bureaucrats but such a devolvement would require careful progress.

As for Mercantilism, as lot has happened in 200 years and the ability to compete is a function of between technology, regulation, labour cost and the ability to aquire resource (particularly energy). The technology advantage has gone from the west, the labour and requlation (or lack of) was always an advantage of the third world, but the critical one now is resources

Neven

by Malcolm | 22 Nov 09, 5:51pm

Especially for Mark Hubbard: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/j

Especially for Mark Hubbard:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/climategate-...

by powerdownkiwi | 22 Nov 09, 6:19pm

Mark will jump at that,

Mark will jump at that, Malcolm - but it has to be a crock.

The point about GW is that what you get is Climate Change - NOT LINEAR WARMING EVERYWHERE.

That is just an idea for bunnies. As the circulation from the ITC expands outwards, things move outwards - including the desert bands. Thus the troubles in the south, but not so much the north, of Australia.

You can also expect the intensity of sea-spawned storms to intensify - as is happening.

From time to time, progressions like this hit 'capacitances'. Think of pouring water down a dry gully. It rushes down the hill, and you time it's initial progress. Then you rush to the bottom, know how far it is, and predict when the water will appear. It doesn't. Has the water stopped flowing? Yes, according to Mark and Wishart and Co. No, says the science. It's found a capacitance - probably turning a dry indentation into a pool somewhere. After which it WILL come out the bottom, and at the speed it went in the top, but it may arrive later than you expected with your initial simplistic model. Get me?

And then there's just noisy data, La nina, El Nino, ocean currents.......

Folk like Hubbard only go for info that supports their pre-concieved wish - thus his outburst about NZ getting colder. Note he seems to be silent about Adelaide's November (imagine February!) fire risk.

The money is in the denial, not in the ascertaining science. There is a lot riding on Business-as-Usual, and those involved are typically bankrupt of the ability to adopt cessation.

Don't be fooled.

by Roger Thompson | 22 Nov 09, 6:38pm

powerdown : Don't be fooled

powerdown : Don't be fooled by little old ladies . Sounds like granny had some fun , and good on her .......... But Afghans .......Wild !

" Folk like Mark Hubbard only go for.........." . Dude , do you go to the club to dance , or just to pick fights with the bouncer ?

by Mark Hubbard | 22 Nov 09, 8:45pm

powereddown, it's just weather. We've

powereddown, it's just weather. We've always had extreme weather. 'Oh my God, alll these ice bergs are floating up from Antarctica, it's the end of the world.' Oh no, wait a minute, the same happened in 1911. In fact in the last Antarctic summer there was the lowest ice melt since the start of satellite measurement 30 years ago. And look at Malcolm's link. Plus on Fox last night I watched Al Gore, a bigger fraud than Madoff, get destroyed by a scientist. The one pleasing thing about the moment is just how quickly the wheels are falling off AGW, probably the biggest fraud of the last century. I'm not speaking more to that: the facts will tell the story over the next decade.

Neven, you never replied to my point about exactly who causes suffering. And resources: 'Oh my God, peak this, peak that, it's the end of the world ... again'. I'm sick and tired of the 2012 clique in here. Before use was found for oil, it was worth nothing, there are plenty of potential energy sources: although we are not on peak oil, plenty of time for the entrepreneurship of free markets to continue mans progress.

Consider this: Victorian man lit his streets and homes on whale oil Neven: what when the last whale ships were being built would you have be wailing about then: 'Oh my God, it's peak whale oil, what shall we do now! This is the end of the world surely.'

It wasn't. And now I'm going to watch a movie in my cinema room, powered by hydro power.

Oh, it's been getting colder since 1998: refute that with science. It's called weather.

Jesus wept.

by Roger Thompson | 22 Nov 09, 9:01pm

Mark : It's been steadily

Mark : It's been steadily getting warmer in Canterbury , since last July . Global warming ! Refute it if you can .

by Mark Hubbard | 22 Nov 09, 9:01pm

By the way powereddown, I've

By the way powereddown, I've read one study that pointed to the fact that if there was an AGW (ROFL), then this would reduce the number of hurricanes, also, that most of our food and productivity is in warm regions, not cold, so an increase in world temperature would be beneficial to mankind ...

But that's by the way: there is no AGW, unless, apparently, you're a socialist.

by Mark Hubbard | 22 Nov 09, 9:02pm

Roger: we've just had one

Roger: we've just had one of the coldest Novembers in many decades :) It's called weather.

by Roger Thompson | 22 Nov 09, 9:11pm

Yeah , I know .

Yeah , I know . The weather , unlike my underpants , changes frequently ! Good movie ? GIANT is on ( James Dean/Liz Taylor/Rocky ) , brilliant .

by Malcolm | 22 Nov 09, 10:38pm

Interesting to compare the energy

Interesting to compare the energy potential of Norway's oil to their Thorium. As I understand the situation, commercialization of the Thorium cycle should be emerging around 2018. Potentially transformational, due to the proliferation and supply advantages over conventional fission reactors employing uranium. Incidentally, I used to be an opponent of nuclear power (not least due to the lack of financial transparency) but Thorium appears to give man an opportunity to do what he is actually quite good at - solving problems!

http://www.innovations-report.de/html/berichte/energie_elektrotechnik/be...

by Neven911 | 23 Nov 09, 4:34am

Mark 1. "there are plenty

Mark

1. "there are plenty of potential energy sources"..okay name them, their lead time.
2. "Victorian man lit his streets and homes on whale oil", the inductive reasoning of the man falling off a 20 story build, "window 1, window 2, window 3....'
3. "continue mans progress", so we can all become corpulent Americanos, Oh joy!!!

Malcom

This is a better analysis, esp section 4.1 than some popsci opinion on Thorium

Neven

by steven | 23 Nov 09, 6:16am

@Mark H: You are blind

@Mark H: You are blind to what I write because your mind is closed, you are assuming now because we dont agree on most things we can never agree on anything...this is extremism at its worst....

"your prescription is precisely what got us here"

It was not my perscription...its was far closer to Liberarianism than I'd like...and its showed itself as failed....but this isnt just me seeing it....many, many ppl also see likewise.

We as voters have clearly allowed this to happen because we were promised we'd be better off...while we wandered around piling up debt we were blind sided, and the sad thing is there isnt now much we can do about it.

Mises has a peculiar look on the world...relying for info on a self-appointed think tank that follows an "out there" political philosphy is not a robust proposition.

"The Austrian fix to this crisis is:

Passively:"

etc
etc

Which is precisley why it wont (voluntarily) happen....what you are talking about is anarchy not freedom...thankfully the fruity loops who think this way are in such a minority that they wont matter.

Not that in some ways I dont agree, this should have happened a lot earlier....while it was managable...

regards

by Wally | 23 Nov 09, 6:45am

Steven...check out The Herald Treasury

Steven...check out The Herald Treasury article am today!!! I think the govt is in trouble now..Treasury are going direct with the message. Key had better think again on saying "NO" another time. Looks like John boy has lost media control over the message.

by Malcolm | 23 Nov 09, 8:31am

For those with an interest

For those with an interest in the possible potential of Thorium a link below. Interesting that those who just dismiss this technology are normally the 'hair-shirts' who do not seem to understand that one of the key drivers for uranium based nuclear power was the fact that it allowed Britain and the US to obtain weapons grade plutonium. Of course, it would never do for a positive thought to challenge their 'end of the world' dogma.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTE4OTN8Q2hpb...

Mark Hubbard - the 'peak everything' brigade will countenance no other argument because, ironically, they have fallen 'hook, line, and sinker', for the garbage put out by their very nemesis - the wealthiest 'corporate socialists' on the planet (who have no intention of making the sacrifices they demand of others). Unequivocally, it is 'easy money' that has led to excessive consumption in recent years, because exploding credit has allowed the 'forward buying' of so much 'stuff'. Now, along comes Mr Market trying to liquidate the excess and reduce consumption to more realistic levels. So what do the 'hair-shirts' do - welcome 'Mr Market' with open arms? "No they cry!" "Stimulate, stimulate, stimulate" - so still more can be consumed. Frankly, the hypocrisy is laughable.

Go back to gold as the medium of monetary communication, slash the size of government, and allow men to interact as equal human beings (instead of being the socialist's mere - 'units of human capital') and the world would be a happier and more equal place.

by Mark Hubbard | 23 Nov 09, 8:45am

Mark Hubbard â€“ the â€˜peak

Mark Hubbard "“ the "˜peak everything' brigade will countenance no other argument because, ironically, they have fallen "˜hook, line, and sinker', for the garbage put out by their very nemesis "“ the wealthiest "˜corporate socialists' on the planet (who have no intention of making the sacrifices they demand of others). Unequivocally, it is "˜easy money' that has led to excessive consumption in recent years, because exploding credit has allowed the "˜forward buying' of so much 'stuff'. Now, along comes Mr Market trying to liquidate the excess and reduce consumption to more realistic levels. So what do the "˜hair-shirts' do "“ welcome "˜Mr Market' with open arms? "No they cry!" "Stimulate, stimulate, stimulate" "“ so still more can be consumed. Frankly, the hypocrisy is laughable.

Exactly.

by powerdownkiwi | 24 Nov 09, 6:51am

Mark Hubbard - I tried

Mark Hubbard - I tried recently to explain - I made it a very simple explanation - what happens to 'the weather'. I obviously didn't make it simple enough.

Before you say "it's the weather stupid" again, could you please research the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the trade-winds (and their 'why') the Desert Bands (their placement, and projected migration) and a little thing called the Adibatic Lapse Rate. Then get your head around divergence, vertical motion and vorticity. Add pressure gradient, secondary masses, thermodynamic changes, pressure differentials,

In short, learn about the weather, which is what folk like me do.

I take it the record (on top of a record) Aussie temps, and the 1000-year record flood event in the UK, don't matter to you ?

"To ignore is to be ignorant".

Good luck with the learning process - it's good fun.

by Mark Hubbard | 24 Nov 09, 7:14am

The trouble is powereddown you've

The trouble is powereddown you've been deliberately hoodwinked by evangelists calling themselves scientists who have corrupted the data deliberately and most certainly the peer review process, as the below links show. I said in a post probably a year ago that one of the real crimes about AGW and the duplicity of that non-scientific body the IPCC, is that the real loser was going to be science.

The next global warming believer who raises "peer review" as a defence of global warming deserves to be metaphorically tarred and feathered and laughed at for the rest of his or her natural life.

http://briefingroom.typepad.com/the_briefing_room/2009/11/the-biggest-sc...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/climategate-...

http://pc.blogspot.com/2009/11/warmists-science-hacked-and-exposed.html

http://climatedepot.com/

http://pc.blogspot.com/2009/11/warmists-hacked.html

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/commen...

http://www.solopassion.com/node/2291

On Fox over the weekend, I watched Al Gore being destroyed by a scientist until the environmental journalists, the damned journalists, Bernard, turned off the scientist's microphone.

AGW will be shown to be the biggest fraud of the last century. What our government is doing, rushing our own brand of insanity through which even the Greens admit openly would not change the climate anyway, is irresponsible and reckless, but they get away with it because of luddites who take what they're spoon fed from the MSM.

Follow the money powereddown. My understanding at the moment is that the 'single' person controlling the most carbon credits, and who is set to become the first climate change billionaire, is Al Gore. This is one bubble, trading in carbon, I'm going to enjoy seeing popped. And it will be because it's a market that in no way attaches to a real, objective reality - it's entirely man made on legislation. But I know, you desire governments to rule and control individuals and so AGW whether it exists or not, is a wet dream: carry on.

by Mark Hubbard | 24 Nov 09, 7:58am

Another great list of links

Another great list of links to the dishonest debacle that is AGW and it's evangelists:

http://blog.mises.org/archives/011078.asp

Because of what is at stake, this is bigger than Watergate.

by Malcolm | 24 Nov 09, 9:08am

Mark Hubbard: Little time to

Mark Hubbard: Little time to comment substantially today, but my old countryman Enoch Powell could have been thinking of the global warming lemmings rushing to the cliff edge - when he infamously noted:

"THOSE WHOM THE GODS WISH TO DESTROY THEY FIRST MAKE MAD"!

A thought - when the new global Reich has been established post Copenhagen should the South Island look at going it alone and leading a renaissance in sanity? We have 'gold in ground' (the ultimate extinguisher of debt) and a resourceful population. The precedent is there with King Alfred the Great's tiny Kingdom of Wessex. Now remind me - who did he face down and defeat? Wasn't it a bunch of characters from a country that now has as its capital - you've guessed it Copenhagen! As Mark Twain said: "History does not repeat - but it does rhyme".

by Kate | 24 Nov 09, 9:09am

The great tragedy of this

The great tragedy of this is that some in the anti climate change camp use the uncertainty of climate science as a legitimization for continuance of consumer-capitalist ideology - which ignores environmental carrying capacity in favour of further growth in production and hence waste - while arguing all will be well for future generations if we simply protect private property rights and allow market forces to sort out matters of resource efficiency and conservation.

Changing climatic conditions is a hazard for which we have centuries of experiential knowledge from many cultures on which to turn knowledge into action to build hazard resiliant communities and societies. The Cartesian model of reductionist science has done us a great disservice - but the reason it has done us a great disservice is because science has become a commodity to be traded, as opposed to a knowledge to be used for the benefit of humanity. And similarly, the science has been used to legitimate the establishment of a new commodity market for the global capitalist financiers.

Trust in science has been betrayed. Trust in government has been betrayed. Trust in our financiers has been betrayed.

We need to return to a reliance on values-based decision making.

by Malcolm | 24 Nov 09, 9:27am

Kate: Unfortunately you are wrong.

Kate: Unfortunately you are wrong. The very idea that exponentially rising 'consumption' can deliver prosperity is anathema to the true capitalist for he sees the utter absurdity of the position. Like the belief that a nation can prosper through housing speculation these silly ideas are not capitalism - they are simply 'bread and circuses' frauds designed to enrich bankers and fool a gullible public. The planet is being raped and pillaged by the socialist/collectivist ethos that is now ubiquitous - with its obscene conceit that man has dominion over nature.

by Kate | 24 Nov 09, 9:42am

Malcolm - mine is not

Malcolm - mine is not a political statement on liberalism vs socialism / left vs right dichotomies. In terms of the globalisation ideology which our current society functions under - left/right has nothing to do with liberalism vs socialism - both 'sides' adhere to the same economic principles which support crony capitalism.

The key is to frame your understanding within the characteristics of the ideology of globalisation. This is an excellent explanation and the author cover the nature of changing tradition political classifications at the end of the article;

http://www.globalism-nationalism.org/publications/MS_JPI%20Ideologies%20...

by Malcolm | 24 Nov 09, 9:51am

Kate: you will note I

Kate: you will note I mentioned 'true' capitalism. As Friedrich von Hayek reminded us in 'The Road to Serfdom' - where he correctly forsaw Britain's future descent into fascism in 1944 - few people EVEN AT THAT TIME could remember a genuinely liberal society.

Globalization is the very essence of socialism, reducing, as it does, humankind to mere 'units of capital' (where favoured elites enjoy lavish advantages over sneered at Joe Public) Genuine capitalism allows for a free exchange between free people - its about time we had some!

by Mark Hubbard | 24 Nov 09, 10:03am

We need to return to

We need to return to a reliance on values-based decision making.

And whose values would those be Kate?

Every politician currently making dreadful decisions for our future will say they are making 'values based decisions', that's why they are there.

There is only one morality, man qua man. And only one economic system that embraces that: laissez faire, based on sound money. The beauty of this system is your value system, or John Keys, or Sue Bradfords, or Joseph Stalins, cannot determine how I am to live my own life.

by powerdownkiwi | 24 Nov 09, 10:10am

Mark - sounds like the

Mark - sounds like the rant of hellfire and brimstone, to me. You aren't descended from Torquemada by any chance?

Kate - hear hear. Couldn't have put it better. We are indeed seeing the crux of it now.

Interesting times, I think my biggest sadness is to see so many otherwise good folk floundering.

Perhaps the media could do better, although it's hard to beat the clarity of the Fallow article.

At the end of the day, we have to hand on a going concern, and we ain't doing that. We are visiting a cost on those (future generations) who haven't signed up to the deal.

Last I heard, that was fraud.

by Malcolm | 24 Nov 09, 10:35am

Powerdownkiwi - indeed it is

Powerdownkiwi - indeed it is a fraud, and just when the fraud of Uncle Sam's 'protection racket' (of pieces of paper called dollars) being forced on people for goods and services is falling apart the 'banksters' - who run his country - must come up with a fresh scam. Fortunately, they have us Pom to help them - we provide the brains and they provide the violence via 'imperial reach'. The most hilarious thing is that the greatest 'facilitators' of our latest rort are the very people who claim to be most opposed to our 'capitalist ideology'. The United States, like Britain, parted company from capitalism long ago. Both are fascist states (in the true definition - because they simply represent the melding of the interests of big business and favoured elites with the state).

Not since the South Sea Bubble have we managed to pull off a con this big - great to see us Poms (and our old colonial friends from America) have not lost our touch!

by Kate | 24 Nov 09, 3:33pm

Mark asked, And whose values

Mark asked, And whose values would those be Kate?

Glad you asked. I should not use the term values - better we need to make decisions in future based on our ethical or moral framework; based on philosophical principles as opposed to scientific 'truth claims'.

As a nation, we need to openly discuss what our ethical framework is - principally whether that be based on deontological, telelogical or virtue ethics. If we had a broad consensus/agreement on that, I believe the resolution of right from wrong in the determination of our actions would fall quite easily out of such a moral framework or perspective.

by Mark Hubbard | 24 Nov 09, 3:57pm

... principally whether that be

... principally whether that be based on deontological, telelogical or virtue ethics. If we had a broad consensus/agreement on that, I believe the resolution of right from wrong in the determination of our actions would fall quite easily out of such a moral framework or perspective.

Bloody hell, talk about double speak - this looks like an atrocity about to happen if I ever saw one.

I can guarantee you we two will never be in 'broad agreement' with your 'deontological, teleogical or virtue ethics'. This is a dead certainty. I don't want your ethics, or this nonsense, having any say in the life I lead at all. None.

Thus, back to the safe position for any free society, as I have already stated, but I shall repeat:

There is only one morality, man qua man. And only one economic system that embraces that: laissez faire, based on sound money. The beauty of this system is your value system, [edit, your deontologicals & telelogicals] or John Keys, or Sue Bradfords [definitely want no part of her deontologicals], or Joseph Stalins, cannot determine how I am to live my own life. I can do as I wish, follow my own goals and pursuit of happiness happily oblivious to this horseshit, or anyone else's horseshit, so long as I initiate force on no other person. It's so easy.

by Malcolm | 24 Nov 09, 4:03pm

"â€¦ principally whether that be

""¦ principally whether that be based on deontological, telelogical or virtue ethics. If we had a broad consensus/agreement on that, I believe the resolution of right from wrong in the determination of our actions would fall quite easily out of such a moral framework or perspective."

We gave the world a beautiful language - and look what they do to it!

by Gertraud T. | 24 Nov 09, 4:13pm

Oh dear, oh dear, I

Oh dear, oh dear, I always thought I am a person with high ethics and responsibility for my speech and actions, but

"deontological, telelogical virtue ethics" ????

Poor me, I am so stupid.

by Roger Thompson | 24 Nov 09, 4:13pm

KATE : Again , you

KATE : Again , you nailed it . Deontological and Telelogical Ethics ! Are our dentists and telecommunication providers being honest with us . Get this straightened out first , the big issues . and leave the ETS where is belongs , with the rest of history's debunked theories ............And damn , there is a hoo-a of alot of 'em ! Blasted dentists and Telecom . Getcha ethics sorted ( clowns ! ) .

by Gertraud T. | 24 Nov 09, 4:28pm

Roger Thompson: you made my

Roger Thompson:

you made my day, can't stop laughing reading your comment, how right you are!

by Alex | 24 Nov 09, 5:16pm

Why am I not suprised

Why am I not suprised that Telecom is mixed up in all this? Cheetahs never change their stripes .........

by W. Kunz | 24 Nov 09, 8:19pm

Mark, one day in the

Mark, one day in the near future you driving down Queen Street 10am with your luxury Hummer will be hit by one -
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10611252

"¦.for a weak up call.

Scientists are telling us of climate changes and it is obvious on many fronts. If it is "manmade" or not is irrelevant. We do need greener policies anyway.

by Kate | 25 Nov 09, 12:23am

I have to smile! From

I have to smile! From climate-deniers, to ethics-deniers. :-)

But the point is, everyone makes moral/ethical judgments everyday - and every person tends towards one or other of these approaches in their decision-making. None is 'better' than the other, but each provides a framework or a basis on which to consider what is good or bad, right or wrong.

If the only decisions we had to make as a society were economic ones, then "man qua man, laissez faire, non initiation of force" might suffice. But, with that perspective in mind, I would ask is a lie an initiation of force? Consider which of these three statements regards lying is your perspective?

1. I tell the truth because lying is always wrong.

2. I would tell a lie if it was the best thing to do in the circumstances.

3. I find it very difficult to tell a lie.

Whichever is 'most you' reveals the principle ethical/moral perspective you have.

In my opinion, understanding our own moral values - that is, how we make ethical choices (and we make them every day!) is something everyone should be conscious of about themselves.

by Doug | 25 Nov 09, 8:03am

Mark Hubbard, take heart. More

Mark Hubbard, take heart. More than a trillion in short-term US debt is due in the next month. The Treasury has no option other than to roll it over into longer-term treasuries. To make them attractive to holders they will have to increase the yield on them and this will increase interest rates. Of course, they can try and print their way out of it, but the only buyers will be the Fed through Goldman, JPM, et al. The jig is up.

by Neven911 | 25 Nov 09, 3:26pm

Kate: "This is an ethics

Kate: "This is an ethics test"
Mark: "Ok"
Kate: "There are 3 people in a burning building, A Num, A Nobel Laureate and a Merchant banker, you only have time to save one, who do you choose"
Mark: "I have to save somebody?"
Kate: "Yes!"
Mark: "Is there time to start a bidding war?"
Kate: "Arrhhhhhh"

Apologies to Scott Adams

by towel radiators | 28 Nov 09, 12:46pm

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