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Opinion: What New Zealand can learn from Singapore's monetary policy
As the exchange rate, inflation and overnight interest rate charts demonstrate they now have a stable suite of economic indicators:
There is a lot we can learn here "“ identify the real problem, seek effective solutions and take some action. The solution doesn't need to be perfect, only better than what currently exists; if it works, fine, if not, try something else. Our Government announced a plan to assess its effectiveness in improving productivity on a yearly basis at the beginning of their term. This could extend to a review of the stability of our major economic indicators; clearly it can be done as demonstrated here. We really do not need to wait another year for the manifestation of yet more imbalances in our economy before we look to changing our policy framework. ____________ * John Walley is the CEO of the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association. ** This piece was written before the Labour Party announcement Thursday challenging monetary policy orthodoxy. *** Editor's note: For those wishing to find out more about Singapore's exchange rate policy, see here.
51 Comments
Easier said than done....SINGAPORE IS
Easier said than done....SINGAPORE IS NOT NEW ZEALAND.
1. It is not a democracy (as we know it) The goverment decides and "everybody" goes along. Try that in NZ....I live in auckland and have seen our motorway extension been delayed for more than a decade....think this can happen in Singapore ??
2.Singapore has the largest goverment surplus per capita in the world....NZ has a unending deficits...(even the much touted Cullen surplus is a mirage)
3. Singapore manages exchange rates instead of interest rates...tell that to RBNZ
4. Singaporeans are massive savers (up to 40% of income), New Zealanders are massives borrowers...
5. Singapore workers productivity...as compared to Kiwis ?? Need I elaborate??
I can go on and on and on forever......
Mr Key says we have
Mr Key says we have world's best practice in monetary policy. So why is Singapore no 9 and we are no 46 in GDP per capita.
Let the facts to the talking and let's leave opinions of banks and ex FX traders to one side for a change.
Phil Goff has show a huge amount of political courage by announcing monetary policy reform and he need go no further than Singapore for best practice on that subject.
Kin they where no 42
Kin they where no 42 in 1965 and we where no 11 in GDP per capita. Today that's No 9 for them and No 46 for us. If we want to look at winning economies and behaviors then let's do that. Singapore is winning economy that is posting exceptional recovery results. So the doom merchants that said oh but look at them now at the beginning of the recession can go and eat some humble pie. When the economy is balanced it is resilient and the people benefit accordingly.
From this mornings Christchurch Press:
From this mornings Christchurch Press:
"Key acknowledged exporters were struggling. This was not because of a defective monetary policy, but rather because the United States economy was weak, which was pushing up the exchange rate, he said. There was work to do to make life easier for exporters, but that did not mean changing monetary policy - it meant reducing red tape and the bureaucracy swamping businesses."
Spoken like a true currency trader. His solution is reducing red tape! Does he really think Kiwi business people believe this! New Zealand already has the 2nd highest rating in terms of the ease of doing business. We need business people running the country, not currency traders and property speculators, but real, hard working business people.
A change in monetary policy is a good start - but what are the options Labour?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/3081655/Key-rejects-Go
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/3081655/Key-rejects-Goffs-call...
"New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association chief executive John Walley supported Goff's call for change.
Walley said New Zealand should look at Singapore's monetary policy, which had delivered it a stable exchange rate, lower inflation, lower interest rates and higher growth than New Zealand for decades."
I had to laugh at the, "..it meets international best practice." 'Emperor's Clothes' like comment. If we are best, I'd sure hate to see the worst! Come on, let's get real, it's "international best practice" for facilitating the lamentable transfer of wealth from the tradeable to non-tradeable sectors - for any community dumb enough to continue following the orthodoxy few dare challenge, such as Guernsey, North Dakota and Singapore:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-how-neo...
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/18/opinion-how-the...
To say there is no alternative is simply not true.
No wonder John Key is always smiling.
I love these sort of
I love these sort of statements...
"There is a lot we can learn here "“ identify the real problem, seek effective solutions and take some action."
Identify the REAL problem... in practise that usually means, patch up a symptom
Then
"The solution doesn't need to be perfect, only better than what currently exists; if it works, fine, if not, try something else."
Contradiction in terms....If the REAL problem has been identified CORRECTLY, then the soln may not need to be perfect, but it will work, with a little tweaking later.
Its like telling your children to "try and do your best" rather than "Do your best and next time your best will be even better"
Hence the term 'trying people' came about.
I said before in another
I said before in another post:
"That continual dopey grin is giving him the look of the village idiot."
There is always an alternative, its just whether or not its palatable to your cronies.
Would we be willing to
Would we be willing to do what Singapore did to its industry?
I can't remember the exact details but at some point they raised wages to delibrately drive out of business all low wage labour intensive industries (ie textiles, computer assembly).
They also used their savings (which were compulsory withheld from incomes) to build capital intensive industries (eg refineries, airlines, telecoms, chip manufacturing) which increase productivity (output per worker).
One of NZ's problems is we have not created (or expanded) one capital intensive industry since the mid 80's. The RMA and high cost of capital (interest rates), I think are the main reasons.
Israel, The head of Federated
Israel,
The head of Federated Farmers has come out and agreed with Key about how reducing red tape and therefore cost will lead to farmers getting more profit from what they sell. At the moment farmers get skinned by a LOT of people in the chain and that includes regulatory authorities as well.
I'm sure you would agree that farmers are the back bone of business people today. Do you know any farmers?
Or any currency traders?
@Selwyn, you obviously did not
@Selwyn,
you obviously did not read my notes correctly....sorry.
Only one of my points involves monetary policies...the rest involved economic, social and political aspects of Singapore governance.
It should be obvious the monetary policies alone cannot and is not the sole solution to any countries ills...if any.
Labour is now trying to deflect the obvious results of their lamantable goverment policies for the past 9 years of rule by saying "it's the monetary policies fault"....when we all know it is not.
Labour Tax and spend policies the past 9 years is a reason why we are where we are today.....higher tax means less disposalbe income, means higher borrowing to compensate...means higher interest rates...means higher exchange rates...means higher interest repayments...et al...
Labour's Employment rules means less flexible employment mobility, means less productivity...means less profitibility...means less employment...means less pay...
Labour's high tax and compliance cost means less business ventures, means less employment, ....we can go on and on again...but the problem is not just monetary policies, infact monetary policies is small beer in the full picture...Goverment policies on Taxes and expenditures is more important.
There may be elements of
There may be elements of Singapore's economy we can duplicate but we should be mindful of the differences. Singapore thrives because of its location as a transit point for trade going to and coming out of Asia. Hence also the success of Singapore Airlines using its Singapore base as a transit point for international travel.
It is also accused of being a laundering agent for a lot of asian criminal money and is certainly involved in being the middleman between arms sellers and unsavoury states like Burma ie they "re-export" stuff that other nations cannot sell direct but it shows up on Singapore's ledger as an import and export. New Zealand has neither the location or the inclination to be involved in such dodgy trading.
Good on you " kin
Good on you " kin ". Both your posts , above , ring true . We can learn from Singapore , but not blindly follow them .
@David - My father-in-law was
@David - My father-in-law was a farmer and I worked for a firm which traded currency.
I agree that farming is important, and yes reducing red tape is great, but its not the solution to our currency problems. We need to solve both but these two things a separate.
@kin - lets keep this about the issues and not the party. The issue here is we have a monetary policy which is not working for New Zealand and its hard working people. Monetary policy IS important for NZ. If we cant export competitively, then no amount of tax reduction, compliance reduction and increased number of businesses are going to solve the problem. I run an export business, our entire income is in foreign currency - if we don't make a profit because of a fluctuating and overinflated currency there is no tax to pay, no employees to pay, and no business whatsoever. When the NZ dollar moves monthly by over 20% (as it does regularly) it wipes out our entire profit. We run a tight ship, and stay lean, but we can not compete with a hugely fluctuating currency, which is often overvalued because of speculation and a monetary policy which has a single focus on inflation. I agree those other issues are critically important, its not an either/or, its BOTH.
Aren't we missing the point
Aren't we missing the point here? The title of the article is essentially a question, 'What [CAN] New Zealand can learn from Singapore's monetary policy'?????????????
So, what can we learn from them?
Regards, CASPer.
I agree Les, John makes
I agree Les, John makes the point that there may be things we can learn from Singapore which is hard to disagree with. The leap to copying their monetary policy or even aspects of it, is a leap too far for me since there are so many differences in all areas of society.
Personally I think Dr Bollard does a good job in the circumstances and the fault lies in other areas. Don't forget the RBNZ has spent 9 of the last 10 years coping with a spendthrift administration unable to manage its own lunch money. At least the new administration has some people in it who have basic financial literacy skills. Don't knock it.
So John, any idea just what Singapore has done that has been good? Doesn't having a high exchange rate force us to be more productive like Singapore?
@ Roger Witherspoon - good
@ Roger Witherspoon - good point Roger. Dr Bollard has done the best job he could with the tools he has. But its time to change those tools, and the single objective of the RBA.
Its also not just about whether the exchange rate is high or low, its more about the volatility and the extra burden and overhead this places on NZ companies to try and manage this risk and uncertainty.
Perhaps we could tax foreign currency transactions (as has been suggested by Singapore, the UK and is currently being done by Brazil). This would help to eliminate volatility and the speculators who are treating our currency like a roulette wheel.
Roger W - I think
Roger W - I think the key thing to learn is that we could put more focus on external price stability, but IMO we don't have to adapt their framework 'lock and stock', see here for instance:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/19/guest-opinion-w...
To be a TINA (there is no alternative!) doesn't do anyone any favours, and it's just not true - there are alternatives. So it's good to see one of the major parties willing to question the status quo on this issue at last.
There is another huge point
There is another huge point of difference that hasn't been mentioned yet. Over 90% of what Singapore exports doesn't originate there - they import unfinished products, transform them in some way, then 're-export' them. (Crude oil refining is probably the biggest part of it.) In that sense, exchange rate volatility has little bearing on trade, since it affects the prices 'in' and 'out' in equal measure. It does, however, have a major bearing on domestic prices, since so many of the necessities of life have to be imported. So it makes a lot of sense for them to manage price stability through the exchange rate rather than interest rates. It has nothing to do wth helping their exporters.
Thanks Miguel. One other point
Thanks Miguel.
One other point I think John overlooks is that borrowing is inferior to capital. If interest rates are too high then raise equity or reduce the size of the business. Bigger is not always better. The businesses that really accelerate away after a recession are the ones that went in with cash in the bank. They are then able to expand dramatically into the space left behind by the death of their leveraged competitors.
The water has been muddied here so much that much of what passes as accountancy is so much twaddle. Capital is equity. Long term loans are not capital. Why we pay so much attention to the banking industry's product beats me. They are more leveraged and therefore unstable than the people they lend to. Is that not obvious.
Singapore has an amazing geographic
Singapore has an amazing geographic advantage , which enables them to be a hub , an epi-centre for trade between the countrys around them . I prefer Switzerland as a template for NZ . Both have caucasian cultures and a geographic disadvantage . ............... . And both have taken the Americas Cup . Start yodelling , team .......... Ooooooooooh dee lay ohhhhhhhhhh !
Reading today's blogs I feel
Reading today's blogs I feel like watching this guy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHWsIS7rDgM&feature=related
An economy strangled by too many hot spaghetti's, in stead of creation and implementation of new national economic models.
Walter
We don't have to think
We don't have to think of copying Singapore or any other country. Even if we pick one point from Singapore it worth the study. Similary as Roger ( and Walter ) are saying looking at Switzerland makes sense , but the main thing is to look for new ideas ( quickly !!! )
Switzerland as a template for
Switzerland as a template for NZ? You mean basing our wealth on massive capital inflows that also inflate the exchange rate? Well, if you say so...
Cows , chocolate , and
Cows , chocolate , and yodelling , Miguel . What could be so wrong with that ? Gotcha cuckoo clock ? ( admittedly they are a bugger to fit onto the wrist )
Ross as my science teacher
Ross as my science teacher said you can never prove a theory you can only disprove it. Singapore and bunch of others disproves ours and that's the "KEY" message, we have got it wrong buster and this is not world's best practice at all. If it is back it up with data.
Given the Singaporeans export 90%
Given the Singaporeans export 90% of transformed imports, I guess if they abandoned their focus on external price stability, and adopt our approach say, to avoid the time based volatility risk of importing on a dip and selling on a rally, they could hedge.
Would that hedging be more or less expensive than their hedging costs now?
Who benefits?
I see efficient manufacturing facilities,
I see efficient manufacturing facilities, good products and low cost business structures, we know our farmers are efficient. All have relatively low wages, high levels of staff engagement and yet most of those operations cannot do much more than scratch a living.
Something is badly wrong when good operators cannot do better.
This is not their fault it is the way we chose to set up the economy. Unless we can capture value of our people in support of the "˜must trade' nature of the New Zealand economy we are all doomed to live in an economy in free fall.
Wealth transfers to the non-traded economy have to stop and soon.
John Walley - best of
John Walley - best of your many comments.
John - its about productivity.
John - its about productivity. Using more machines and less labour.
There was an article on TV about a research farm in the Waikato that could milk 800 cows with one person. Each cow had a computer collar than recorded all sorts of things including when the udder was empty and the cups could be released.
If farmer use their capital to increase productivity rather than increase land prices they (and we) may be better off.
...and often in NZ one
...and often in NZ one "cow" milks 800 persons and each person has a computer collar then recorded all sorts of things including when the pockets are empty and the cups could be released.
Well sorry Neville just a silly comparison- must be today's Foehn in Kaikoura.
Walter
For even more NZ productivity
For even more NZ productivity use skilled NZ labour manufacturing specialised machinery for NZ farmers - plus.
John Walley, It wasn't that
John Walley,
It wasn't that long ago that we were shining the light on Ireland ...as the economic model to lead us to salvation....
Just because Singapore (and China) have stable exchange rates, it does not really mean much.... I'd be really cautious about drawing any conclusions. ( the heart beat of a 60 yr old might look better on a graph than a 20 yr old... but we know by looking at each person, which is the more "vibrant", stronger and healthier, and who has the better quality of life)
You mention farmers scratching out a living...
In 1980 total credit to the agriculture sector was $3 billion.
In 2009 it was almost $44 billion dollars... ( almost a 1500% increase )
At 8% that is $3.52 billion a year in interest payments.... compared to $240 million in 1980.
If you can understand the Madness of why this has happened... then u are on the way to discerning what our problems are , and maybe the solutions .... that are aligned with the ideals of western living... Freedom, open society, free market principles..etc ??
Here is a paradox... Farmers are borrowing lots of money... To supply the demand for credit Banks are borrowing from offshore... This puts upwards pressure on the exchange rate.... A higher exchange rate puts pressure on exporters earnings.... Farmers borrow more money....
It is like a merry go round... with the real beneficary being the BANKS... who are completley UNPRODUCTIVE.
There are a few reasons that our exchange rate is so high.... Our appetite for debt is one of those reasons.... The carry trade is another.
Monetary policy is not a magical wand.... and in fact should be far more focused on simply keeping money supply growth at around the same level as GDP growth.
(In 2007 Singapore had money suppy growth of almost 24%)
In an ideal world the exchange rate is supposed to balance trade..
Trade deficits lead to lower exchange rates... leads to reduced demand for imports...etc
Chronic trade imbalances lead to all sorts of distortions and problems.
It is so called free trade and a Global economy ,that can result in a Country like NZ having terrible Current Account deficits and a High exchange rate. ( kind of like defying gravity)
If u look at Chinas' exchange rate management.... it is a form of export subsidy.... (Nothing Free Market or Free Trade about that )
If u have time u should read "The dollar Crisis' by Richard Duncan... A very, very good book.
Also, here is a really neat debt clock I came across... I was mesmerized for 5 minutes watching it,... amazing
http://www.usdebtclock.org/#
“Money supply and interest rates
"Money supply and interest rates have a relatively modest impact on inflation and the level of economic activity in Singapore, given the greater contribution of external demand to growth than that of domestic demand. Unlike the larger economies where interest rates have a significant impact on investment, Singapore's economy is dominated by foreign multinational companies with foreign sources of funds, thus
limiting the importance of the domestic cost of borrowing."
http://www.bis.org/publ/plcy05k.pdf
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/20/top-10-at-10-br...
Start issuing our own interest free powered money base, spent into circulation for the building of worthy national infrastructure that we have sustainable physical and human resources to back. 1% RBNZ loans for worthy local government infrastructure and first home buyers . Take the power of credit creation off domestic deposit taking institutes, any foreign currency exchanged into NZ dollars unable to be exchanged back again for minimum 30 days, push for international accord that bans anyone from participating in any commodity market unless they can prove that they have the compacity to take delivery of the commodity they are dealing in. Reform shop credit and hire purchase structures.
What would make good our own sovereign Kiwi dollars would be the exact same colateral the the central bankers currently accept in return for monetising our sovereign debt certificates(Bonds) with their created credit. Cut out the middlemen and reduce the impost of the cost of credit down the food chain.
We all missed the most
We all missed the most important thing that we can learn from Singapore - The Government :)
It comes down to cultural
It comes down to cultural differences ! Quite common to see a singaporean woman serving in a shop, operating a till with one hand whilst supporting a baby with the other ! NZ the place where monetarist fantasists come to die.
Its pretty plain that the
Its pretty plain that the countries that are doing well, and survived the crisis the best, are the likes of China and Singapore. Typically it seems to be the countries that are non-democratic, and with little social welfare, that can therefore creates a land of savers, and a Govt that can push through whatever productivity driven initiatives that it knows will benefit the economy
I do not believe that NZers are prepared to make sacrifices to democracy and social welfare support to achieve a similar result.
"It is like a merry
"It is like a merry go round"¦ with the real beneficary being the BANKS"¦ who are completley UNPRODUCTIVE".
Please explain...a bold statement support with no argument let alone facts
Jack : A few themes
Jack : A few themes : Strong , prudent banks ( Australia ) , Asian work and saving ethic ( Singapore / China ) , Small government share of GDP ( HK/China ) . A trend emerges . Think that will scootle over the heads of our politicians , whoosh , and not even be noticed ?................You betcha !
Iain - "Start issuing our
Iain - "Start issuing our own interest free powered money base, spent into circulation for the building of worthy national infrastructure that we have sustainable physical and human resources to back"
Agreed, as NZ and Auz did back in the 1930's for same; as Guernsey does NOW, similar to the system used in North Dakota NOW.....
THE SAME AS NZ DID ONLY RELATIVELY RECENTLY VIA THE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION (DFC) ISSUING 'SOFT LOANS' FOR PRIVATE SECTOR R&D.
Why not?
How could we improve on these approaches, ideas anyone?
<blockquote> Strong , prudent banks
Yeah....Right
I keep hearing the phrase "strong, prudent banks" in relation to the AU banks, and think to myself "Its a relative concept". Relative to banks that have already gone under, then yes they are strong. My gut tells me that the phrase is propaganda designed to engender confidence.
I wonder whether the banks were kept afloat by the biggest per capita Government Stimulus package this side of the Black Stump.
see
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/reserve-bank-director-opposes-packag...
First Home Vendor Boost kicked the percentage of First Home Buyers from 15% to 30%
Without that stimulus the property market may well have tanked. And if that had happened the banks wouldn't have looked so prudent.
The Government Deposit Guarantee sent a flood of deposits away from other financial institutions into the banks.
The Government gave the banks Cash in exchange for Mortgage Backed Securities. (MBS)... Hmmm. wonder how smelly those securities were.?
And like NZ, AU has opened its immigration doors to wealthy immigrants. Thus helping to keep house prices high / stable.
If the banks were so prudent then:
a) Why First Home Vendor Boost?
Theory: Keep house prices high to keep banks balance sheets looking healthy.
b) Why did the Government swap cash for MBS
Theory: To recapitalize the banks
Individual borrowing levels were sky high
Corporate levels were pretty hefty
The AU Federal Government could take on debt and did.
If there is another leg down the AU Federal Government not be able to blast another $40 Billion AUD into the economy.
Ian Wishart was the man
Ian Wishart was the man who scooped the story on the Global warming scam
http://briefingroom.typepad.com/the_briefing_room/2009/11/hadleycru-says...
This must throw doubt on Kyoto.
We have a rapscallion by
We have a rapscallion by name of Paul Keating , to thank for the strong 4 -pillar Australian banks . But for him , the fiscal messiah of politics , Australia ( and more particularly NZ ) would be " toast " as per the USA & the UK . We in NZ are getting a free-ride on the back of Australian prudence and commonsense . We are not standing our round . We are a parasite on the bum of the big Ozzie doggie . ........ . They may have fleas . But we , NZ , are merely their ticks . Feel good now ?
Jack said: "Please explain…a bold
Jack said: "Please explain"¦a bold statement support with no argument let alone facts"
I'm just applying common sense...sorry, no statistics or treasury studies....I'd like to hear your view.
In regards to the growth in debt in the Agriculture sector... the banks are the main beneficiaries of the interest earned on that debt.
The producers are the farmers. Productivity is the result the farmers efforts...NOT the banks.
The burden of debt is on the Farmers...NOT the banks.
When Farmers are struggling to pay down debt... do you think productivity and good farming practice suffers..???
As a sector Banking is "unproductive" in contrast to the agricuture sector..which is "productive".
I'm not anti banks... but I do feel that the huge growth of the banking/financial sector ,( globally ) and the resulting massive growth in credit...has actually lead to misallocation of investment resourses and as a result a weakened productive sector.... and also an economy that is far less resiliant and able to handle "shocks".
In New Zealand the Major banks are Foreign owned.... so their profits are repatriated offshore... Would you say that this is wealth enhancing for NZ..??? Adds to our standard of living..????
OR are Banks a bit like the flea on a dogs back...???
Andrewj - yes, 'Eve's Bite'
Andrewj - yes, 'Eve's Bite' very interesting. Your link interesting too, and this blog comment there:
"I am only surprised that Jones had the intelligence to not try to deny and cover up the breach. Perhaps he thinks it doesn't really matter, that he and his alarmists have enough momentum politically to force a socialist revolution in the name of climate upon us..."
The momentum is the problem stifling debate at this stage. Sadly it's enough to put the 'healthly skeptic' in the uncaring denier camp all too easily and so little reasoned debate at this stage now.
Where has Rodney Hide been this week on all this? Probably too busy getting the bandages off, both feet.
Rodney was ducking lamingtons at
Rodney was ducking lamingtons at the Hide family picnic , Les . Cousie is genuinely feeling remorseful . The apology he made WAS the real deal . Auntie Marg. & Uncle Phil. say that he knows he made a gross error of judgement . ........... .Blinded by affection for a cute young lass..........We've all been there , ay Les ! Rodders will be back , alike his nemisis , Winston , he just keeps going on . Must have " Dura-Cell " batteries up his jacksie !
I think people on this
I think people on this blog are far too negative about NZ's outlook.
NZers are far too quick to look for a foreign expert fix.
Yesterday it was Ireland, now its Singapore, who will it be next week?
There is a rush of 'the sky is falling' avocates but the reality NZ has sailed thru the Asian crisis, the dotcom bust, 9/11, and now appears to be moving thru the lastest crisis.
Our exports (food) appear to be moving in to a golden era.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15100.html
Our foreign deficit is reducing.
Our debt is going down
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c12/data.html?sheet=0
Our sovereign debt is seen as less risky
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amMRBUFOezdI&pos=6
I know that blogs are like newspapers, bad news sells, but sometimes I think we focus so much on the bad we miss the good.
The Aussie banks awere back
The Aussie banks awere back at it again last week;
and back to mowing the lawns
Roger - hear what you
Roger - hear what you say. No problem with him being human, but better in his own time, than ours, and with his own money, rather than ours. If it meant his wings have been effectively clipped, even worse - we need to/hear more debate on that issue and he is supposed to be the other pole. Dismal.
Agreed , Les . I
Agreed , Les . I believe that the rigours of office are knocking the wind out of his sail's . So much easier to be in opposition , sniping from the side-lines ! And , nothing so ridiculous than a middle-aged man making a prat of himself over a much younger lass . ( So I believe ...........Ahemmmmm )
The attractions of youth....
The attractions of youth....
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