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90 seconds at 9am: The RBNZ's new complementary monetary policy tool
Watch video on You Tube here. Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9am in association with ASB, including news from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that it plans to use its 'core funding ratio' as a complementary tool for monetary policy, adding to the power of the Official Cash Rate. It was introduced in June and is likely to be confirmed by April next year at 65% to rise to 75%. This core funding ratio forces the banks to raise more funds locally and for longer terms, which in turn pushes mortgage and term deposit rates up. RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard talked about it yesterday at a parliamentary committee hearing as a complementary tool for monetary policy that could act as an automatic stabiliser This would keep a lid on bank lending when 'hot money' is cheap and keep the RBNZ from raising the OCR so high when the economy is hot, which would be good for exporters. Meanwhile the NZ dollar was firm around 74 USc overnight after Tim Geithner reassured some of a strong US dollar.
21 Comments
"I say Sir Humphrey...any way
"I say Sir Humphrey...any way round this complementary tool for monetary policy they intend to stick us with?"
"Oh that's not a problem....I have been told by certain parties to let you know there are ways and means to go round these rules..under them and over the top....all fluff for the peasants my dear chap...just sort yourself out a special vehicle to do the bond selling and to make the deposits into the bank here in NZ...."
"Oh I see...and so the credit we create is still on the foreign stuff but looks like it comes from peasant deposits....another Gin and tonic Sir Humphrey?"
"How kind...don't mind if I do"
Taiwan just imposed a capital
Taiwan just imposed a capital inflow ban on foreign funds inflow into Taiwan.
All foreign capital into Taiwan term deposit is illegal. This is to stop foreign "hot money" into Taiwan causing the Taiwan Dollar to rise...maybe RBNZ should be more courageous like the Taiwanese....stop talking and swing the BIG STICK !!!
Barrick head man says peak-gold
Barrick head man says peak-gold production is past as they shut down hedge book:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/6546579/...
If it is an effective
If it is an effective measure (& I agree there will be all sorts of loopholes & ways around it), to a degree it is a pity - productive enterprises will be starved of foreign capital which is vital for expansion.
Just not enuf capital in NZ for capital expansion etc. However, since in NZ we only import money to pump up housing & land values, then I suppose it has to be done. We must the world champions at shooting ourselves in the foot.
Do ya no kin he
Do ya no kin he has nay got a big stick mon and the wee tool is all limp!
Wally, Philly - good points.
Wally, Philly - good points. Without real effective policy change, better tools, we are left with half-way houses and bodging. Still, at least AB is trying with what he does have available, I'm just surprised our inflation hungry goverment haven't tried to pee on his parade yet. Time will tell. Hang on, what's that sound:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ-KZyniB4c&feature=related
I think you will find
I think you will find AB ran his new tool idea past the Beehive first and they ran it past the banks and round and bloody round it went until it was left with enough holes in it to drive a Rtic through sideways. Truth is these new tools join the govt strategy and the TWG and Don's doodles in the humbug bag.
Taxation reform will also be
Taxation reform will also be key to making Bolly's strategy work. Specifically cutting out the various tax rorts favouring property & disfavouring productive invesmtent. I still have hopes for reform there, tho the performance of the Nats to date doesn't give much confidence....
Hang on, if AB can
Hang on, if AB can selectively tighten the ratio by sector and purpose, for instance land/property investment in dairy, see:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/11/special-report-...
can we not loosen as selectively, for other productive enterprise, Philly? Same question as yesterday, different angle. Kinda think Wally is gonna come back with same answer as yesterday, but why not?
@Wally Care to share some
@Wally
Care to share some examples of how the banks will get around such rules?
Les: I think this talk
Les: I think this talk of "selective tightening" is just jawboning, I think you will find the emperer has no clothes. It would be unenforceable, funders & borrowers would just waltz around it.
"The financial stability report released
"The financial stability report released yesterday shows that New Zealand banks still import more than 40 per cent of the funds they lend"(herald) ....that's great news isn't it?....40%....so what happens when those lending the loot up the anti and raise the price?...Aint no way the banks can get that 40% on the local market because it just does not exist...they are trapped by their own greed for mortgage market share and fat profits. If AB gets permission to implement his new tools and that is very very doubtful...the banks will need to buy buckets of red ink. The odds are the banks will tell the govt what is going to happen and the govt will get the spin doctors to put some gloss on a statement the RBNZ will be allowed to make a few months from now which will see the April startup for the new tools delayed until October and so on and so on.
Tinkering. It’s just tinkering. The
Tinkering. It's just tinkering.
The money in and profit out channels for the banks are now so deep and so wide that this will have little effect, sorry to say.
There is no silver bullet that can fix the economy and unless we have a series of changes (tax, monetary policy and productivity incentives) I don't see the fixation with nation destroying, property investments and carry trade going away any time soon.
But I really hope I am wrong.
Simple problem Bill..40% of funds
Simple problem Bill..40% of funds used by banks are borrowed offshore...there is no way the banks can replace this with deposit money in NZ...so expect the startup date of April 2010 (already move out from the end of 2009) to be pushed out yet again and again. The banks will be allowed to set up 'special vehicles' into which foreign loot will flow and then that loot will be deposited in the bank account before being multiplied by 10 and loaned out to keep the property ponzi scheme running. The govt has no intention of ending the property bubble because the economy will not let them. If by mistake something was done to trigger a collapse..the balance sheet impact for the banks would set in train a total failure of the whole economy...this is the message being drummed into the Cabinet...they have no bloody choice in the matter. Consequently the so called 'strategy' is nothing but humbug and the TWG report will be buried.
Exactly Kin --way to go.Its
Exactly Kin --way to go.Its time we got our elected representatives running the country , not the the big 4.
Well put. If you stop
Well put. If you stop the pump on the bouncy castle, it rapidly loses shape.
TWG won’t be buried in
TWG won't be buried in my opinion as that will show that this government really is committed to zero change and as we can all see in the posts there is a growing community of senior people around the country that want significant change. It takes a lot to educate a society but its slowly leaking out that we are in the brown stuff and things have to change.
JKs popularity right now can't last. Do nothing it goes down, do something it goes down, so eventually he has to make a call to go down on a policy issues or go down for doing nothing. Simple decision for an intelligent man I would have thought.
Wally is quite right. Internationally,
Wally is quite right. Internationally, there is plenty of bank experience of using offshore Structured Investment Vehicles to circumvent capital adequacy rules. The same will happen here. In fact, smaller (local) banks like SBS and TSB will suffer the most, as unlike the Aussie four, they lack the funds, personnel and scope to set up such SIVs.
The RBNZ cannot possibly contain the housing bubble alone - a coordinated policy response is essential (but politically difficult). I've said before, the ball is in Phil Gough's court- he needs to pledge Labour support for a National tax reform (LAQC abolishment, plus land or capital gains taxes on residential second properties).
So many questions to ask
So many questions to ask AB on 29th Jan next year:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/10/23/opinion-reforms...
Bernard - maybe you could save me some time and ask AB how RBNZ are going to deal with the ratio and foreign spec. capital issues we are raising here.
Rob W - it' my understanding, from reports in mainstream media, that Goff et al have tentatively indicated support - there's no excuse for avoiding some carefully implemented change. Time will tell.
Les...AB is not able to
Les...AB is not able to make decisions without running ideas past the Cabinet. Those muppets are being jerked around by the big banks. The game is what it's all about Les. What state this pigsty economy is in when the game ends is up to the banks.
Wally - ok, I've resisted
Wally - ok, I've resisted the best I can, but you've won me over - I think YOU are RIGHT when all said and done.
"We do, ... we do.."