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Most viewed
Top 10 at 10: Questions for South Canterbury; China-US trade tensions; Daily Show; Dilbert
Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am (really!). I welcome your additions and suggestions in the comments below. There's nothing wrong with my hair today...
1. Tough questions - Yesterday's announcement by South Canterbury Finance that it has borrowed NZ$75 million from PGC's Torchlight has attracted some tough questions, not least from accountant blogger David Hillary over at Lost Soul.
For example, why didn't South Canterbury announce that this loan facility has first dibs on South Canterbury assets ahead of any claim debenture holders (or the government) might have? What is the interest rate being charged? What are the covenants? There remain serious questions too about the success of any capital raising by South Canterbury Finance to raise up to NZ$500 million. Here's a few of David's points.
The trouble lurking on SCF balance sheet includes:
Dairy Farms -- these assets produce poor returns and have been falling in value in the last year by around 30%. With Crafer Farms, one of the largest dairy farms in NZ in receivership with something like $200m of debt, and with Dairy Farms from South Canterbury Finance and associated entities hitting the market, the market value of Dairy Farms could fall dramatically, leaving a huge hole in SCF.
Loans secured on Dairy Farms -- SCF appears to have been funding major amount of dairy conversions, and as above the security for these loans has been losing value fast, and could lose a lot more.
Property development loans -- always risky and SCF has a lot of them, with only modest provisions.
Related Topics
Loans to directors etc. secured on the shares of the parent company, Southbury Group. If the company raises a lot of new capital, the value of the existing shares could be greatly diluted, making these loans real bad, real fast.
Helicopters -- these could be worth a lot less than book value of the company needed to sell them (commercial aircraft have recently plummeted in value and are being cannibalised for scrap).
Perhaps the more pertinent issue is not the details of the balance sheet but the quality of the management and the poor decision making that has been exposed: What were they thinking in aggressively expanding lending activity in the last 12 months? Instead of focusing on rationalising the business, prioritising high value client relationships and improving asset quality, they've been backing lending proposals others have been turning down for probably good reason. They appear to have thought that the credit crisis and property market crash was just a small hiccup, and that they would be proven right when everything bounced back to 2006. And now they appear to think they can beat the market again by tapping investors for more capital to fund business as usual. Sharemarket investors appear to have other ideas.
2. Oh the irony - China is investigating whether the United States is unfairly subsidising carmakers in another twist in growing trade tensions, the FT.com reports.
Few vehicles are actually exported from the US to China, but the move would have symbolic power by turning the tables on Washington. US labour groups have long accused Beijing of unfairly subsidising its exporters. However, through a "countervailing duties" investigation, China would assess whether the US was open to the same charge. The investigation could lead to import duties.
General Motors and Chrysler have received about $60bn in government bail-out funds, though Ford has received nothing.
3. Really? - The US economy is out of recession, allegedly. Figures out overnight showed the world's biggest economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% between July and September, BBC reports. But of course there's a catch.
The growth was helped by a substantial government spending plan, including a scrappage scheme to boost car sales. The figures from the Commerce Department showed that a number of factors helped to lift the economy during the third quarter.
Spending on durable manufactured products soared at an annualised rate of 22.3%, the highest quarterly amount since 2001, led primarily by the impact of the cash for clunkers scheme lifting car sales.
The housing market also improved, with spending on housing products up 23.4%, its largest quarterly jump in 23 years. Analysts said this big leap was sparked by the government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time house buyers.
So what happens when the government and the Fed inevitably have to withdraw the stimulus. Is there anything real underneath the US economy? It needs falling unemployment and years of debt reduction to really get going again.
4. Another view - Mish over at Global Economic Analysis has a more pungent view on the US economy.
Today the market is cheering over what is actually an ugly report. A misguided Cash-for-Clunkers added a one-time contribution of 1.66 percentage points to GDP. Auto sales have since collapsed so all the program did is move some demand forward. Government spending increased at 7.9 percent in the third quarter which is certainly nothing to cheer about.
Personal income decreased $15.5 billion (0.5 percent), while real disposable personal income decreased 3.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.8 percent last quarter. Those are horrible numbers. The savings rate is down, which no doubt has misguided economists cheering, but people spending more than they make is one of the things that got us into trouble. The only bright spot I can find is exports. However, even there we must not get too excited as imports rose much more.
5. Is a home an investment - Peter Schiff reckons a home is not really an investment unless the rent clearly exceeds the outgoings, including maintenance. HT Mish , who says the following:
Value of the land itself may not go to zero (except in instances of excess taxation), but over time, the value of the structure always goes to zero unless it is maintained.
6. Dairy glut? - This piece in the LA Times looks at the glut in US dairying and what they might do to deal with it. The lawmakers are interested.... HT Andrew Wilson by email.
Prices have fallen amid plunging consumer demand. At a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, talk of a solution centers on shipping milk and other dairy products to developing countries.
Consumer demand, particularly for cheese, has slipped amid the worldwide economic downturn. But production continued to grow. In September, the price dairy farmers received for 100 pounds of milk was $11.90, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, down from a high of $19.50 in June 2008.
The surplus is not easy to eliminate, because dairy cows must be milked -- or slaughtered. With the average cost of producing milk around $18 per 100 pounds, depending on the state, farmers lose money every day. If the Chinese drink milk, "we'll find a way to get it there," said Eric Ooms, a New York dairy farmer with 400 cows.
The Obama administration recently signed into law $350 million in emergency aid for the industry. The USDA had already allocated nearly $1 billion for dairy product purchases and subsidies for the 2009 fiscal year.
Farmers say the milk pricing system needs to be overhauled, something the senators agreed would be looked into when the next farm bill, scheduled for 2012, comes up.
7. The big break up begins - Finally the Brits are looking to break up their 'Too Big to Fail' behemoths, The Independent reports. HT Andrew Wilson via email.
Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland and Northern Rock will be broken up and parts of their businesses sold off to create three new banks, it emerged last night.
Government sources said ministers were "determined" to see more competition in the market, following the £1.2 trillion bailout of the sector which resulted in the loss of three independent banks and several building societies.
8. Global imbalances - Nouriel Roubini talks here at the IHT about the global imbalances.
9. Carry Trade - Roubini again on the US$ Carry Trade, as reported by Bloomberg.
10. Friday Funny - Here's John Stewart talking about CEOs and Angry Mob Platinum cards.
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| You're Welcome - Wall Street Reform | ||||
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52 Comments
That about the Merchandise trade
That about the Merchandise trade balance for Sept
Sept Deficit $424m (last $1252m)
Sept yr Deficit $1533m ($5048m) -Table 1
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/imports_and_exports/overseas_c...
If South Canty was a
If South Canty was a household with no wages coming in and the householders got their mate to put some cash on the plastic for them would we not all think they were on borrowed time?
Stripping away all the weaselnomics here is this not pretty much what we see here?
Will SCF be the first
Will SCF be the first domino to fall in our own "subprime" fiasco ?? Only time will tell and time is fast approaching......when the double dip starts, interest rates rise, kiwi falls etc etc good luck everyone....
@ Kin If interest rates
@ Kin
If interest rates rise, doesn't our dollar go up?
British unemployment. Scary figures and
British unemployment. Scary figures and implications for NZ here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/edmundconway/6457737/A-social...
I posted this last night on a less-than-related thread. My anecdotal evidence is that young people in NZ are bearing the brunt of the rise in jobless this year.
<i>My anecdotal evidence is that
My anecdotal evidence is that young people in NZ are bearing the brunt of the rise in jobless this year.
Of course, and due to the minimum wage rate. Compulsory minimum wage rates always lead to higher unemployment during recessions, or periods of deflation.
I've seen a graph of the unemployment rates in the US, broken down by age, and the worst off group there by a long way have been youth, again, due to their minimum wages rates.
Re SCF - at long
Re SCF - at long last they have appointed 3 new independent directors:
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX/SCF010/announcements/3014664/SCF-Appoint...
Are they squirming their way to salvation?
They're three impressive directors: I
They're three impressive directors: I think this bodes very well for SCF.
RE: #1 - It was
RE: #1 - It was interesting to read David Hillary's blog about SCF and then compare that to Chris Lee's comments on his website. You would think that they were talking about two entirely different companies. Time alone will tell who is correct with their assessment.
Ruru - these unemployed, underemployed,
Ruru - these unemployed, underemployed, student loan bearing youth of today are tomorrows homeowners... maybe.
@spindy, interest rate rise but
@spindy,
interest rate rise but kiwi still falls? strange ? Not so if you figure out that we need to borrow 10 billion every year...that's just the goverment, not to mention the private sector.
The world is running out of cash (real money not the paper the Feds is printing), so when supply (cash) falls price (interest) goes up.
When interest rates goes up our financing cost goes up, so our ability to generate surplus goes down, which means our ability to service our debt goes down, which means our creditors demands more from us in our currency ie our currency depreciates.....Econ 101 (international trade and finance).
Goverments may throw in stimulus and Central Bankers may hold interest rates at zero for a time but sooner or later the price has to be paid....or the debtor defaults...either way the currency goes down.
Golden Rule : you can only borrow up to the amount you can repay, after that you default....
"Golden Rule : you can
"Golden Rule : you can only borrow up to the amount you can repay, after that you default" - seems some home owners should listen to this. Ever watched "Save my Home" on a Wednesday night on TV1?
http://www.netprophet.co.nz/news/tax/tax-policies-fingered-for-g
http://www.netprophet.co.nz/news/tax/tax-policies-fingered-for-global-fi...
"#2 Tax havens should provide freely information to governments about nationals who use those jurisdictions, but large nations should not focus attention on tax havens as a distraction from the need to sort out their own finances."
So guess we could start by handing over the 'List of Pecuniary Interests' and give em' the tip to look for the property investment - because if that ain't sheltering in a tax haven what the hell is?
Dang, there are one and the same, doh!
Thanks Kin, I hope that
Thanks Kin, I hope that cycle is well and truly over by the time my mortgage resets in 5 years - got a rate below longterm average 1 day before they started climbing [double fist pump]
Interesting times we live in right now aye...........
veedub Oh, I watched it
veedub
Oh, I watched it this week. I was appalled at the so called financial advice the two advisors gave the couple who were living a spendthrift lifestyle with no equity in their existing property. Their advice to get them focussed on "saving" was to buy a rental property with no deposit down. Brilliant. We need more of that.
It was everything wrong with the media in this country.
Actually Kin, the world is
Actually Kin, the world is running out of things to generate wealth from.
It's the exponential, doubling-time thing.
We've never been there, globally. There's always been another place to extract from.
Interesting times, if you'll pardon the hackneyed pun.
@ Mike, I was appalled
@ Mike, I was appalled too. Quite a risky strategy I thought, given the couple's lack of willpower and grip on reality.
I watch it most weeks and this is the first time that this strategy has been recommended to my knowledge. Usually the two Advisors do everything they can to slap some sense into these financially troubled folk and make them live within their means. I was quite alarmed at this change in direction. Who knows, it may well work out, but the couple in question didn't strike me as the type to practise restraint and sef-discipline and if they're unable to deploy those traits they'll end up in a far worse pickle than they're currently in.
#5. Peter Schiff is simply
#5. Peter Schiff is simply playing on words. Buying a home CAN be a form of investment, if it ENABLES you to save more. He says that to have shelter you either rent, or buy a home, and either way you are spending money. This is simply BS as they are not the same thing. Buying a home ALLOWS you to save MORE money in the long term by paying off your mortgage, and having much less weekly or monthly costs for that shelter in the future. If you are renting, you may be saving that additional money instead of putting it towards a mortgage, but in the mean time you are still paying for an increasing rent rather than paying a reducing interest cost.
@veedub: I was astonished at
@veedub: I was astonished at that programme. I half thought it was a spoof!
The answer to having a 100% mortgage and huge student debts with profligate spending was to buy another house and wait for the capital gain! Unbelievable. The "advisor" assured us the rental property was ina "capital gain area". Oh that's alright then! They said they put the couple on a plan to save the deposit but not a single detail of the plan was mentioned.
I hope they return to the couple in a few years when it has all turned sour and see what they think then.
What happens to Fonterra if/when
What happens to Fonterra if/when the USA dumps milk solids on the market?
@ruru: it seems the young
@ruru: it seems the young (and maybe the old) always bear the brunt. From what I have read so far whatever the mainstream rate is, say 9%, the youth rate is somewhere between double and triple that....so 18~24% seems quite probable for <25years old....and even higher for <20. To me this is a social timebomb...you cant put these ppl in jail like the Libertarian and ACT supporters seem to think...this is revolution material, Look back at history why is there a Bastille day? If say the mongrel mob got together and stormed a jail say 200 or 300 of them, could they be stopped before they had freed their members? I wonder....
Longpockets and Veedub. Didnt see
Longpockets and Veedub. Didnt see the show, but see that behaviour all the time in regards to advice.
It is interesting that the advice to purchase a rental investment in a "good capital gain area" with no deposit would not come under the new financial advisor laws.
However if they had advised, put away in Kiwisaver , matched by employer etc etc and didnt have a tertiary qualification, they would be operating poutside the (proposed) law.
@FO - I think one
@FO - I think one of the lasses is a Financial Advisor, the other a RE Agent.
Now there is a pair
Now there is a pair to re-con with. Maybe we should all watch these type of programmes and PILE in. (Oh we did)...
Must be some ones DESTINY to act like a PROPHET for profit. God I like the news these days.
Where could they HIDE when things come a-drifting around the World.
(Does MP stand for MOBILE PLUTOCRAT) or perhaps....(MISPLACED PLONKER).
I wanted to take my Girlfriend too. BUT....and this is a big BUTT...my wife will not let me.
That was a joke...dear.
We are out of recession, so I am signing up for my share of rentals tomorrow. Anyone with me.
The DOLE em out on these mill-stones. (is that how you spell it.)
Am going to RIO for the OLYMPICS, they will have at least cleared up their GANGS by then, cos they promised....a bit like we have...but actually it is against HUMAN RIGHTS....here. (But are we not HUMAN too)..
Only a 1000 murders and Gangs ruling the ROOST...fly me down to RIO...is that how the song goes......should be simple. If they do not clean it up..it will only be like living in a film...eh.
Bit like the PLAIN SAILING off the coast of Somalia.
Now where did you leave those travel brochures Rodders.
BUYER BEWARE. DE-FAULT may be yours.
Ya have to see the humour these days. Otherwise you would puke...
Re "save my home", couldn't
Re "save my home", couldn't believe this show, talk about borrow and hope.
The guy was a clueless, self centred moron, reportedly on a hundred K salary. WTF?
Makes you wonder about the future of western civilisation, and they want to start a family.
Quick someone phone Michael Laws!
@steven: You're on to it.
@steven: You're on to it.
@Mark Hubbard: You are putting me on, aren't you??? Our 20 yr old lost his job earlier this year because there was not enough work coming from the dairy industry customers to sustain the factory. Or that was what they were all told. However, you will be gratified to hear that in the June 30 year result for the same company managed to post a more than 10% profit INCREASE on the year before (sorry can't recall exact figure but I know I'm being generous here). Nothing to do with the minimum wage; everything to do with a company running its affairs so profit growth is the only measure of success, demanded by CFO and shareholders alike. Why can't they show smaller profit growth and keep people employed? OOps, now you'll call me a socialist. I'm not, but I am with powerdownkiwi: growth is finite.
But then I know you're winding me up Mark H, because an intelligent human couldn't reeally believe what you write sometimes.....
Bernard Hickey: SCF details that
Bernard Hickey: SCF details that the facility would be secured by prior charge in its prospectus. This means that the granting of the facility is no vote of confidence in SCF, since even if SCF fails heavily, the will stand very first in a long line.
<b>ruru</b>, no, not having you
ruru, no, not having you on, just giving you the facts and the theory, which the anecdotal evidence of your son (one youth) does not invalidate - how could it?
As I stated, in times of deflation, the one price level that cannot go down, due to minimum wage laws, is wages, ergo, this then correlates into unemployment. I haven't got the time to find it, but somewhere on the Internet, on a US financial site, there is a graph showing how unemployment there was being led disproportionately by youth: those who tend to be on the compulsory minimum wage, while they are getting their experience, etc, and whom employers had no room to move in terms of wages paid when they hit hard times, so had to let them go.
Many of our meddling laws that distort free markets have such unintended consequences: that is part of the problem with the meddling.
I hope your son finds another job.
I guess this will sound
I guess this will sound like a "It was harder in my day" or "us GenXers had it soo bad" etc
But the youth umemplyment reminds me of my situation as a school leaver in 1991.
http://www.nzinstitute.org/index.php/nzeconomy/mediarelease/rising_unemp...
"In 1991 the unemployment rate for youth aged 15-19 shot up to 23% at its peak. In 2008 the unemployment rate for that group was still high at 14.3%."
It was even worse in my provincial city, something like 30% youth unemplyment, I joined the army for a year, then got out of town into a bigger city, then university and by the time I graduated the recession was well & truely over.
It's the over debted uni graduates that I feel for at the moment.
But 15 years later they'll probably be like me ..... it will even out.
prior charge,isnt that what HBOS
prior charge,isnt that what HBOS did with strategic finance?dont remember you setting up a campaign to discredit them.
Actually Mark, that's a bit
Actually Mark, that's a bit disingenuous. Left without 'meddling laws', kids would still be going down the mines as slave labour, 10/7.
It was the free-market in full cry - wanna go back there?
WOW! Nice to see Peter
WOW! Nice to see Peter Schiff comes out swinging at the crux of the problem. I have always maintained that housing is just a worthless as an investment as diamonds. Both only have an underlying intrinsic value and in real terms both are actually worthless.
Alan, if your comment is
Alan, if your comment is directed towards me, I understand that prior charge finance for distressed finance companies is not new, I remember Fortress Credit doing that and then putting them into receivership, and as far as I know it made tidy profits on the deals. I'm not running a campaign against SCF or any other company, the thing I'm against the Crown Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme, and if you check out my blog, you'll see I've been writing against it since a couple of days after it came out.
South Canterbury Finance just happens to have caught my interest lately. It happend like this: I heard their bonds were trading at distressed levels a few months back, and thought they can't be too bad, perhaps it is a good opportunity for someone willing to take a little risk for a good return, but I never got around to giving them a proper look. When I did take a look recently I was alarmed and surprised at the situation they were in, and they also happen to be a big potential claim on the Deposit Guarantee Scheme.
Troy Says: October 30th, 2009
Troy Says:
October 30th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
I have always maintained that housing is just a worthless as an investment as diamonds. Both only have an underlying intrinsic value and in real terms both are actually worthless.
The mind truly boggles. Yeah, Troy, same with food , and clothing, health care.
Shelter and comfort for you and your family: What is it good for; absolutely nothing, say it again, absolutely nothing!
Yep, no intrinsic value at all. So what does have "intrinsic" value Troy. Gold; corn; oil; sticky buds. Of course they do! If you had enough of them you could probably swap them for a house. No hang on, houising has no "intrinsic" value. Now where are those sticky buds.
@pete: Its good for what
@pete: Its good for what you mention and not an investment...I agree with PS's defination...I'd maybe go further where it actually produces something ie takes place in the real economy, a good is produced.....
regards
david hillary,yes my comments were
david hillary,yes my comments were directed at you and the focus you have on SCF,doesnt equitable also have a GG?if they are squeaky clean how come they have a lower rating than SCF,your nitpicking abilities seem to be selective and only target SCF to the exclusion of all others.allan hubbards farms but not john spencers megayacht.
Good old Mark aye, if
Good old Mark aye, if the lowest common denominator and maximum efficiency, productivity is slavery, we better get all our young people there quick, lest the slaveminded few not be able to get as rich as those lucky slavemasters in nations elsewhere. Atleast they will have a job, even if theyre only working for food, never mind them being able to get from one end of life to the other with a bit of dignity, no matter how hard they work. You really are one confused screwed up chappy.
Alan , lets have your
Alan , lets have your Equitable story .... obviously you are keen to get it out .. Your Witness .. please
US President Barack Obama signed
US President Barack Obama signed legislation authorizing the largest ever military budget, a $680 billion for the Pentagon, including $130 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan...He really deserves Nobel prize for Peace
@Allen: I think the peace
@Allen: I think the peace prize was a sick joke....unfathomable even..
alan stewart: well there are
alan stewart: well there are plenty of finance companies that have the guarantee now and won't qualify for the extension, and I think the government has estimated a good portion of them will go under, and put aside a substantial proportion of the $800m to cover them. If you have a story about Equitable, why not tell it yourself?
SCF is of interest because it is the 10th largest financial institution in NZ, and if it goes under the government will end up carrying big costs, and perhaps it will turn more people against the government deposit guarantee scheme.
P.S. check out my latest post:
What Credit Rating for a Financial Institution that ran out of Cash Last Week? http://davidhillary.blogspot.com/2009/10/what-credit-rating-for-financia...
"War Prize" would be more
"War Prize" would be more appropriate
Re:3 How much of the
Re:3
How much of the just reported US GDP growth is legitimate economic growth and how much is govt and fed induced? We'll have to wait and see.
Mike M. So the GDP
Mike M. So the GDP is made up of a few things....financial dealings is one....that is abviously up, I wonder if anything else is. I agree its all the stimulus money but jobs have not stopped dropping yet...what I dont understand is the plonkers in the Whitehouse must see that things are really bad, and that they havnt fixed why things are bad.....sad.
regards
so nice to enjoy a
so nice to enjoy a sunny day and be free from the worries of failing finance cos etc;was thinking of taking advice about starting my own blog complete with full profile that would reveal absolutely nothing but include a photo of somebody I wished I looked like,I could include as associates my imaginary friends from east europe and the indian subcontinent who constantly bombard me with offers to share their access to cheap pharmaceuticals and conjugal bliss.I was going to advise everybody to buy some infratil preference shares but after being alerted to the 40% liability they will default I decided to buy kiwibonds.tried to send rodney hide an abusive email but he seems to have shut down all his access.once my paranoia takes hold I will issue further manifestos a la unibomber.
Houses have value in the
Houses have value in the sense that they provide shelter and a sense of security - when owned without the bankers lien. The problem is, that in one of the greatest episodes of collective financial insanity in history, Joe Public became convinced that they could produce wealth. Manifestly this is absurd when objectively analyzed. A house not only produces nothing - in terms of physical output or intellectual capital - it actually decays over time thus draining the owners wallet. Never mind! The bankers were able to convince us that by 'gearing, upon gearing, upon gearing property' we would grow rich - both personally and nationally.
What has to be understood is that house prices have only been able to reach such absurd levels through the creation of 'debt money' that has provided a form of grotesque money supply expansion. With all that 'debt money' chasing a finite supply of housing prices have inevitably risen beyond all rational norms. Yet, as all history commands, instruments of gross credit excess must ultimately implode. That is exactly what the market is attempting to do - but the bankers and politicians are determined to thwart its attempts with still more 'debt money' stimulus. Within this I suspect we are approaching the point where such desperate moves will no longer offset the underlying process of deflationary destruction. This will leave just two disastrous options - honestly admit the madness and accept an unprecedented debt deflation or monetize everyones liabilities. History suggests that our great leaders will attempt the latter option and if (and it is a very big IF) they succeed then the horror of Weimar Germany beckons. The price we are going to pay for our house price obsession, both here and overseas, is going to be unimaginable!
Mike, The GDP rise was
Mike, The GDP rise was the result of an unprecedented funneling of public funds into the financial system, totaling at least $11 trillion
Re:3 Nearly 63 percent (2.2
Re:3
Nearly 63 percent (2.2 percent) of the 3.5 percent increase in GDP was due to temporary government tax credits ...
Made me cry , havn't
Made me cry , havn't seen a single " clunker " that was worse than the rust buckets that I lurch around town in .
Vale : Tim Bickerstaff : All stand to attention !
Malcom - how is housing
Malcom - how is housing any different to gold - most of gold's value is in that it looks pretty.
ALL houses/structures eventually degrade to
ALL houses/structures eventually degrade to NIL value- eventually even the Pyramids.ie: Land value, pull down and start again. Gold does not degrade with time, and what you have today, will be what you have in a hundred years. eg: Tutankhamuns golden funeral mask.
good as gold,floating the idea
good as gold,floating the idea of a return to the gold standard has as much chance as another flashdance tour,they had no arms but this has no legs.