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Extra tools likely to control dairy and housing bubbles, ANZ says

Posted in News

ANZ economists said they were "in no doubt" that further measures would be introduced over coming years to compliment the Official Cash Rate, with the focus on controlling bubbles in the dairy and housing sectors. In their weekly comment piece, the ANZ National economists said the dairy sector was likely to face different capital lending requirements at some stage, which would mean higher lending margins. They also said a capital gains or land tax may not be taken up for 'political reasons', but that "the rules will change" either through depreciation rates, elimination of various deductabilities or some other tax modifications. "(Y)ou can't have an investment class such as housing, which is NZ's biggest, and expect the Government to continue giving that investment class an aggregate tax refund, which is the current absurdity," they said. Here are the economists' comments on the impending changes:

At times like this "“ when major divergences are opening up "“ it is useful to remember that there is more than one way to skin a cat. The OCR is a blunt instrument and we are in no doubt other measures are going to be introduced over the coming years as monetary policy seeks more "mates" "“ including the interaction with fiscal policy. In terms of the two main "surprises", namely the dairy sector and housing, the former will face different capital lending requirements at some stage, which means higher lending margins and also some form of regulatory mechanism to internalise the negative externality it imposes on our environment. The "better" the outlook, the closer these changes are. Housing in some way or form will feature in terms of the recommendations out of various review groups and taskforces that the Government have in place and that are all due to report back before the end of the year. It may not be a capital gains or land tax that is taken up for "political reasons". But you can't have an investment class such as housing, which is NZ's biggest, and expect the Government to continue giving that investment class an aggregate tax refund, which is the current absurdity! The rules will change, either be it through depreciation rates, eliminating various deductabilities or some other tax modifications. It's all part of fostering changes across the economy, and we are in no doubt various structural modifications will be influential in so far as how much work monetary policy has to do. In the absence of such changes, the risk is that we go back to the behaviours of old, familiar bubbles form, the rebalancing process is stymied and the OCR once again becomes the sledgehammer.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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31 Comments

I've been surprised recently how

I've been surprised recently how well land [value] tax has been mentioned by various pundits, the recognition that taxing things that don't and can't move is better than taxing things that can and do. So, why rule it out? I'd rather have lower land price to ground rent ratios, and lower tax rates on capital and labour.

Capital gains tax is an ugly form of tax, and thank goodness it isn't politically acceptable.

Surely the best way to

Surely the best way to cool down the property market is not to use a capital gains tax, which we know dosn't work, but to remove the ability to offset loses againts personal income.

its funny how everyone agrees

its funny how everyone agrees that taxes on ppty are a great idea, but they seem also think they are politically undoable. What about GST?? It happened. Its called making a decision John Key.

Andrew, that would be a

Andrew, that would be a great idea. Just ring-fence property source income, as a start. However, limits on interest deduction would also help.

No one can prevent asset

No one can prevent asset bubbles , except under a 100 % socialism . But policies which promote productive enterprises , may divert some savings away from houses . Neither National nor Labour seem to be aware of this . Or they can't be bothered . Encouraging savings by tax exempting term deposits could have dramatic effects too . But there is no debate there , either . Getting a financial watch-dog with some competency and some power wouild be novel . Our finance companies and sharemarket are a mine-field of rorts , rip-offs , UXB's , and Doug Somers-Edgar . Why go there ?

Just the talk of a

Just the talk of a land tax is effecting farms sales at present. The other tax the Carbon was is scarring the hell out of buyers. Some certainty is required other wise fear will take over and we will see a collapse in land prices. As most farms only return 2-3 % a land tax of %1.5 could be devastating. The ETS which was going to be a carbon trading scheme but is now a carbon tax could destroy the profitability of many sheep and beef farms as its going to be per head. Looks to be starting at $4 a head for sheep rising to $8 as we already pay levies of over $4 me thinks interesting times are around the corner.

Andrew, the effect of a

Andrew, the effect of a land value tax is just to reduce the unimproved value of the land, it doesn't effect the viability of using the land, except inasmuch as it allows for a reduction in taxes on productive activity, i.e. labour, capital, enterprise.

<i> ... except inasmuch as

... except inasmuch as it allows for a reduction in taxes on productive activity, i.e. labour, capital, enterprise.

Well there's just one of the Archilles Heels of creating yet another tax David: while we're borrowing $250 million a week to keep the wheels on the Welfare/Public Service Sector State do you seriously believe this Government, or any in the wings, is going to reduce taxes on productive activity on the advent of a new tax?

I don't.

We're just going to have to lump yet another tax.

Slash the size of the State - it all has to start from that, every other measure is Nero fiddling while freedom is burning.

AndrewJ, you'll be interested in

AndrewJ, you'll be interested in this link which has costings of the ETS (and a petition form to try and stop the damned thing):

http://www.climaterealists.org.nz/

Mark, I'd like to see

Mark, I'd like to see the size of the state slashed, just like you. But I'd rather have less socially destructive taxes to fund what's left of it.

Longer term, if the value

Longer term, if the value of farming land is reduced, it will help farming to be more attractiveby curbing the debt overhead.
No farmer in this country appears to have ever heard of earnings yield (Reverse of PE) relying of course on an ever increasing capital gain.
Is there anyone here who can recall the Goons' solution to being able to see where they were in the Amazonian forest. Eventually you run out of shoulders to climb on to.
The pity is if the latest Fonterra price rise starts another farms price spurt.

Of course the govt will

Of course the govt will reduce other taxes if it introduces a land tax. Introducing a land tax would be politically impossible otherwise.

While I too agree that the tax burden should be reduced overall (on the back of reduced govt spending), debating the appropriate mix of the taxes that we are left with is an important debate worth having.

Im not against a land

Im not against a land tax. Many of may friends have large farms they carry large amounts of debt deliberately because a) they believe that inflation will always be with us and b) If they gear up enough the deductible interest payments are high enough to mitigate any taxation. I have friends with 1000's of acres who live incredible lives of luxury who have not paid tax for 20 years. They just keep high debt levels and it has been incredible advantageous for them. They effectively free load on society as long as we guarantee inflation a policy which J Key appears to agree with.

Thx a lot, Andrewj! I

Thx a lot, Andrewj! I thought my temper had calmed down after the words yesterday from.....well....let's just recall some apt words from the Beatles song,

"...The man with the foolish grin is keeping perfectly still
But nobody wants to know him,
They can see that he's just a fool,
And he never gives an answer,
But the fool on the hill,
Sees the sun going down,..."

one constructive way of getting

one constructive way of getting the housing boom under control is to reduce the compliance costs from local councils so building new dwellings would be easier. A member of our family wants to build new house on their sub-dividable section, the cost of getting permit alone is nearly 22 grands plus 40 odd thousands for development contributions. Another person I know wnated to extended their home by 5 sq metres, Auckland council insisted that they will need a permit at a cost of $2,300 - they found out later that under Schedule 1 of the new building act they don't even need a permit!

Andrewj - I wonder if

Andrewj - I wonder if John and Bill know about that kind of thing? Come to think of it, I wonder if Michael and Helen did?

If any of them did know about it, I wonder what they'd do about it?

AndrewJ Says: They just keep

AndrewJ Says: They just keep high debt levels and it has been incredible advantageous for them. They effectively free load on society as long as we guarantee inflation a policy which J Key appears to agree with.

Isnt that exactly what neo-liberals want as thats what happens all over the world. Its hard to remove self interst from any of these debates. While your playing the game (life) you are so busy getting ahead that you don't stop to realise that your actaully distroying (your countrys economic wellbing) as much as your building (your personal wealth). If you have never sat an pondered what you really care about this may not be an issue. But I suspect for most Kiwis putting at risk the life style and culture we inherited is something they don't want to be part of

This quote sent to me the other day sums it up"¦"¦..

"A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit"

I hope we can as a generation stops this stuff. Churchill would be handy right now as he could have said....

"Never before in the field of human greed, have so few, taken so much, from so many"

The trouble with the 'land

The trouble with the 'land tax/capital gains tax debate' is it fails to take heed of the fact that much of the so called 'wealth' associated with rising house/land prices is an illusion. This conjuring trick is possible because, hitherto, a tidal wave of debt money has acted as a pressure wave pushing prices further and further ahead. The outcome has been the development of impecunious nations, ranging from the bankrupt like Britain and America, to the aspirant bankrupt like New Zealand.

What the New Zealand government now appears to be planning is to introduce an additional lien on peoples earnings - based on the pretext that they got rich via property. However, because of our 100% fiat money system this alleged 'wealth' is much smaller than is supposed - especially as the increase in house/land prices has mostly been driven, not by banknotes, but by instruments of credit. Thus on a 'gain' - reposed upon foundations of sand - an additional proportion of income will have to be handed over. This is why I think government will 'huff and puff' over a capital gains tax, but finally come down on the side of a land tax. Why? Because it can be levied arbitrarily via a civil servant declared valuation - without 'Mr Market' delivering a transparent 'willing buyer, willing seller' assessment of what your property could command in a genuinely transparent transaction. In essence it is a system of taxation in which the state 'declares' you have the following 'wealth' - irrespective of market verification - and in consequence you must hand over 'tribute'. In philosophical terms it is not too dissimilar to the protection rackets run by Ronnie and Reggie Kray in the East End of London in the 1960s - where they would 'assess' club owners as making an arbitrarily declared sum and then demand 'tribute' accordingly.

The first requirement of sensible financial and tax planning is to embrace sound money - so that value (as opposed to nominal price) can be transparently established. The combination of a land tax, and a government with (at least theoretically) an unlimited ability to produce fiat money, is a recipe for effective asset confiscation of the kind that occurred in the later stages of Imperial Rome's bankruptcy and decline.

Cullen spent 9 years building

Cullen spent 9 years building government up , into the ravenous beast that it is today . He squandered our economic boom . And now we propose to cut the state back to size . Therein lies the heart of our problems . We lurch from one ideological extreme , experimenting and wasting , and then turn it back to some other model . And each time we blow the dough . Our tax-payers money , on their particular largesse . How about we figure out what we actually want , on a generation plus time scale , rather than a schizophrenic whip-saw every 3 / 6 / 9 year election cycle . And woe betide any pollies that stray out of the template for what we , the voters ( their bosses ! ) want .

Rogie, lunch is ready- are

Rogie, lunch is ready- are you still in Loburn or driving wireless in Kaikoura ?
Walter

By jove I thinks he's

By jove I thinks he's got it:

"We lurch from one ideological extreme , experimenting and wasting , and then turn it back to some other model . And each time we blow the dough . Our tax-payers money , on their particular largesse . How about we figure out what we actually want , on a generation plus time scale , rather than a schizophrenic whip-saw every 3 / 6 / 9 year election cycle."

You don't mean, end the left v. right wastage and go to cherry-picking what's right for us in the here and now and next step, as opposed to what is clearly wrong for us - no matter how hard we try, and how many times we repeat it, do you Roger?

Anyway have a nice lurch, sorry lunch. Gummy bear fondue perhaps? Les.

Loburn ! Got a corned

Loburn ! Got a corned beef on the boil . Two hours should do it . Thanks for offer , Walter . You scuba for fresh crays up there ? ( I lived with a Swiss couple , in Geraldine , in 1983 . Amazing people . Always felt that we [ NZ ] as a nation could learn much from more established cultures )

Would a land tax have

Would a land tax have the effect of making farms more affordable to a wider range of people working there way through the industry, thus giving competent young farmers a fair chance of ownership? If so would farming become more efficient than the trend currently supporting 'corporatisation of farming?
Would it also have the effect of revenue leaving NZs shores in the form of bank interest if land prices were lower. When I say lower would a land tax bring land(farm) prices more into line with its productive value.

We're still skewered toward the

We're still skewered toward the left , Les . Boring of me to repeat , ah , for the zillion'th time , that socialism doesn't work . But totally unfettered capitalism may not be the whole answer either . There is a balance , not set in stone , as the world keeps evolving , but we seldom get near that point of stability . Cullen & Douglas seem to be polar opposites . And where have each of them led us ? ( for sir's lunch , may I recommend a Basle loaf / some Bagnes cheese / Nostrano ( salami ) / and a cheeky little white wine from Neuchatel . Bon appetit , Monsieur Rudd . )

Rogie, I occasionally catch a

Rogie,
I occasionally catch a "Kahawai" for a meal. Yes, Switzerland could be an economic model for NZ in some areas. Both countries can learn from each other, because of "big" neighbours.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/carbon/6527970/Ever

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/carbon/6527970/Everyone-in-...

If you want something to ruin your lunch then check out the link above. Incidentally, I notice that the British Government is planning some 'formula' to value celebrity contributions to the economy. Now why might this be? A more cynical man would suggest it is because, as Britain morphs into a cross between Nazi Germany and Stalin's Russia, they will form part of the new elite with special carbon allowances etc (whilst the peasants shiver). Thus a justification will emerge for their unencumbered first class travel, the private jets, the big cars etc because of their overwhelming "˜contribution'. (as they journey to plush resorts to discuss climate change perhaps). Meanwhile, Joe Public (a much lesser 'unit of human capital') will struggle to get the carbon allowance for a week's holiday with his wife and kids. Frankly, you couldn't make this nonsense up!

Well there you go "you

Well there you go "you couldn't make this nonsense up" applies to a lot of the issues reported or referenced in this thread!!!

“A society grows great when

"A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit"
I hope we can as a generation stops this stuff.

Well put Selwyn.
I suspect that most people who add to the Blogs here feel the same way.

The babyboomer generation have never known hardship or war, so are quite unwilling to sacrifice themselves for the greater good. They do not even see getting ahead at the expense of others as a problem, in fact it is their modus operandi.

While a small amount of individuals are better off, we as a nation are a whole lot poorer as successive generations have to borrow more to pay artificially inflated house prices. The interest bill in killing the country, but those "getting ahead" don't care.

I've always thought that "investment" in property to not be a true investment while the supply of houses is constricted. If the market was truely balanced only those who wanted would rent and the rest would buy. But as most "investors" know the constriction of supply unbalances the market and many more are forced to rent who would otherwise buy. If this were not the case then it would not be seen as the sure thing "investment" returning the above market returns that it does.

The Baby Boomer's parents would be turning in their collective graves at the thought of their children robbing successive generations of the chance to own a fairly priced house, given the sacrifices they made. They saw housing as a means of shelter from the elements not from tax. Making a living from productive work was their motto, not from unproductive housing.

Fantastic last paragraph Andy M,

Fantastic last paragraph Andy M, very well said.

The original article says "a

The original article says "a capital gains or land tax may not be taken up for "˜political reasons'". Can anyone explain what these political reasons are? Which voting block doesn't want it? Surely that's the only political force a government has to pay serious attention to.

If John Key had opposed the 'anti smacking' bill he would have been even more popular it now transpires. Someone though made him think that it would be politically dangerous to oppose it. Hi heart wasn't in it so someone scared him about it.

Who is making him think there is a political risk here? I just can't see it.

@Brian W, right on, it's

@Brian W, right on, it's bollocks - but look who's written the article - is the 'risk' evaluation making more sense now?