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Who do you think should be appointed Reserve Bank Governor to replace Alan Bollard when he retires in September?

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Top 10 at 10: Allan Crafar's 80,000 tits; Singapore trying to cool housing market; Dilbert

Posted in News

Here are my top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and insights in the comments below or please email me your suggestions for Wednesday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@reuters.co.nz Today's Dilbert would useful for Theresa Gattung to read. Dilbert.com 1. Matt Nippert writes sympathetically at the NZHerald about the Crafar family's dairying debacle. He, and Allan Crafer Crafar seem mystified as to what went wrong. It seems not to occur to either of them that expanding too fast with too much debt might be a problem. Here's a few quotes to let Crafar (and Nippert) hang themselves.

"I've ended up in the greatest job in New Zealand - I've 20,000 girlfriends, I get to play with tits all my life, and my wife doesn't get jealous." But last year, disaster hit - and not just in court. The Fonterra payout dropped two dollars, just like that. "And, boy, it has a big effect on us. You work that out. The sensitivity in our job is massive," says Allan. Fonterra's decline in payout, down to $4.55 this year and with more bad news to come, has slashed the value of CraFarms. They had expanded rapidly by using existing farms as leverage for financing. For a while the strategy paid off spectacularly. "We had a double or quits idea, and we'd bloody near done it," says Allan.

Remember this guy borrowed NZ$200 million from Westpac, Rabobank and PGG Wrightson Finance. Was 'double or quits' a business plan the bankers accepted? And then there's this little gem about how the Crafars managed their business.

Allan says they've kept things simple and within the family. So simple, in fact, that they only recently purchased a computer and the company's business diary is a wall calendar: "I write things on the calendar, and at the end of the month I tear it off and that's it, it's gone." This approach to business administration flummoxed MAF and police officers who searched the property last year in relation to a dirty dairying case. Allan says the police told him: "You can't run a business that big like that."

There is much, much more to come with this story. Watch this space. Here's a hint of how these guys think.

Shortly before lunch, Allan takes a phone call from a friend and exchanges unkind words about (former Forest and Bird chief executive Bryce)  Johnson: "Everything he stands for pollutes waterways - the biggest contaminant of water worldwide is mallard ducks."

2. Here's how a real government moves quickly to dampen a housing boom. Singapore has announced a range of measures to stop people buying apartments with low to no deposits and opening up new land supplies, Reuters reported. Korea is also threatening to raise interest rates because of a growing speculative bubble fuelled by US interest rates at 0.25%. HT Eugene via email. Remember, most of the Asian economies are hard-coded into the US economy via fixed or managed exchange rates, which means they share America's obscenely low interest rates.  God help us all. It's happening all over again. The last global housing boom was sparked by the Federal Reserve holding its OCR at 1% for a couple of years. Many of the buyers in Auckland right now are Asian and partly fueled by low interest rate Asian money. Here's what Singapore is doing.

With immediate effect, banks and developers will not be allowed to offer loans on homes under construction where the borrower need only put down as little as a 5 percent cash downpayment and defer repayment of the principal until after building is completed. The government also said it will reinstate its "confirmed list" of land sales in the first half of 2010 and increase the supply of land available to developers. "Given the current market conditions, the government has decided to adopt several measures to temper the exuberance in the market and pre-empt any speculative bubble from forming," National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said in Parliament. Singapore's actions come as some Asian governments warn of speculative bubbles in real estate markets and said they may take steps to cool an overheated market. For instance, Bank of Korea said on Thursday it would lift interest rates if home prices climbed further.

Related Topics

3. Gold watchers should keep an eye what's happening with Canada's Barrick Gold, which is raising US$3.5 billion to buy itself out of some hedges that are hurting as the gold price rises. Tyler Durden at Zerohedge points out the capital raising here and speculates it may be a sign of much more volatility to come. HT Troy Barsten via email

The massive (relatively speaking) move up in gold is not an isolated phenomenon, and has certainly got not just the gold fans following every tick, but also has some bullion bank executives likely very, very nervous. Throw in some aggressive ongoing gold repatriation, and all of a sudden this generally quiet corner of the commodities world could soon start looking very, very interesting. "We had a double or quits idea, and we'd bloody near done it," says Allan.

4. Here is Meredith Whitney, the banking analyst that predicted doom pre-Lehman, talking about how house prices have another 25% to fall in America. HT Blair Rogers via Twitter.

"No bank underwrote a loan with 10 percent unemployment on the horizon," Whitney said. "I think there is no doubt that home prices will go down dramatically from here, it's just a question of when."

5. Robert H Frank at the New York Times poses some interesting questions for the libertarians of this world about how much free market competition had to do with the last year's financial failures. HT Greg Elliott via email. Mark Hubbard: are you watching?

Of course, periodic asset bubbles occurred even when markets were less competitive. But people in earlier times were less aware of the high returns being earned by highly leveraged investors. Relaxed regulation and increased competition now confront investors with temptations that growing numbers of them are ill-equipped to resist. Alan Greenspan's erstwhile faith in the invisible hand notwithstanding, it was never reasonable to have expected market forces to protect society from the consequences of this risky behavior.

6. Why do stock markets keep rising without any reasonable fundamental support from the US or global economies? Zero Hedge has an idea: fund managers are scared of going against the market when their jobs depend on meeting the market.

Here is the punchline of how speculative frenzy coupled with job preservation will continue dislocating a market from any possible connection to an underlying economy that has yet to approach anything remotely resembling a bottom, and as we grind slowly toward the 2011-2012 cliff, likely to see another major leg down when the Commercial Real Estate threat will be the next "black swan" that nobody could have possible anticipated. Emphasis ours: According to Jeremy Grantham, "In markets, where investors hand over their money to professionals, the major inefficiency becomes career risk. Everyone's ultimate job description becomes "“ keep your job. . . . Refusing, on value principal, to buy into a bubble will, in contrast, look dangerously eccentric. And when your timing is wrong, which is inevitable sooner or later, you will, in Keynes' words "“ not receive much mercy." Indeed, performance risk, bonus risk, and ultimately job risk. And there you have it: everyone knows the market is a bubble, however if you want to keep that seat by your desk on January 2, you have no choice but to buy: after all Obama said it is safe to do so. In the meantime, Main Street, largely ignorant of the motivations behind the small minority that determines the bulk of market movement, will part with their hard earned savings, and chase whatever stocks it thinks will make it the next slot machine millionaire.

7. Another Nobel Prize winning economist has come out to say America's King has no clothes.

The massive debt being racked up by the United States to exit recession will thwart growth for decades while its "almost useless" financial sector needs deep reform, a Nobel economist said Friday. "I have a gloomy feeling about the American economy over the next couple of decades," 2006 Nobel Economics Prize winnerEdmund Phelps of the United States, said Friday at Poland's Krynica Economic Forum, known as the "Davos of the East." "I see the financial sector as almost useless in the promotion of prosperity in the United States," Phelps said. "It will have to be reformed and somehow in principle competition could do that over the decades but I don't think we can wait that long."

8. Felix Salmon at Reuters has the full Obama speech overnight on regulatory reform. Salmon makes some good points. Obama doesn't. I said a few months ago that Obama was a liar and a fool. His inaction over allowing the 'Too big to fail' banks to get even bigger and to then go on and make pots loads more bonuses by ramping up risk on top of a government guarantee just proves his stupidity and cowardice in the face of entrenched lobbies and the Goldman vampire squid wrapped around his administration.

Barack Obama said that he wants to do regulatory reform "in a way that doesn't stifle innovation and enterprise". Shame. Given how dangerous financial innovation and enterprise have been over the past decade, one would have hoped that a bit of stifling was a top priority for the Obama administration.

9. This piece from the New York Times is interesting in that it shows how deeply the US government is involved in the economy now and how reluctant it is to truly control the banks and companies it has given money to. Astonishing. As is this little gem of a fact. HT James Kwak at The Baseline Scenario.

Between financial rescue missions and the economic stimulus program, government spending accounts for a bigger share of the nation's economy "” 26 percent "” than at any time since World War II. The government is financing 9 out of 10 new mortgages in the United States. If you buy a car from General Motors, you are buying from a company that is 60 percent owned by the government. If you take out a car loan or run up your credit card, the chances are good that the government is financing both your debt and that of your bank. And if you buy life insurance from the American International Group, you will be buying from a company that is almost 80 percent federally owned. Far from eagerly micromanaging the companies the government owns, Mr. Obama and his economic team have often labored mightily to avoid exercising control even when government money was the only thing keeping some companies afloat. A few weeks ago, there were anguished grimaces inside the Treasury Department as the new chief executive of A.I.G., Robert H. Benmosche, whose roughly $9 million pay package is 22 times greater than Mr. Obama's, ridiculed officials in Washington "” his majority shareholders "” as "crazies."

10. TheOnion strikes again with warning about a Hurricane threatening to make homeless people really homeless.

In what forecasters are predicting will be the largest, most devastating disaster to hit Florida since the national economy collapsed, a Category 5 hurricane neared the Gulf coast this week, threatening thousands of repossessed and long deserted homes. According to meteorologists, the incoming tropical storm could leave as many as 3 million residents every bit as homeless as they've been for the past year or so. "Those who haven't already lost everything to the housing-market crash are urged to evacuate their homes immediately," said Robert Menken, head meteorologist at the National Weather Bureau. "That should be about 10 or 12 of you. Everyone else, please stay where you are, probably on the couch of some in-law who lives near Atlanta."

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

1 Comments

Dogbert got it from Theresa

Dogbert got it from Theresa Gattung . He couldn't teach her anything new , on that score .

:) Huh! Re (5) I

:) Huh!

Re (5) I don't have time to read that article fully until later Bernard, but skimming, and as an opening shot, quote:

Alan Greenspan's erstwhile faith in the invisible hand notwithstanding ...

What a farce. This is Greenspan who was head of the Fed for what, 18 years, the very visible hand of the State's distortion of the cost of credit. Greenspan no more believes in the invisible hand, or more importantly practiced it, than I am likely to ask Helen Clark out for a date.

Whoever wrote the article wouldn't know what a free market was, seemingly, and that we don't have free markets, thus, what caused the meltdown was lack of free markets - true, laissez faire markets. I've said it before, if there's a central bank, it ain't no laissez faire, at best, and worst, its crony capitalism and monopoly rent seeking that rules, and a completely centrally distorted market with all the ill effects of same.

Later.

@8 'liar', 'fool', 'stupidity', 'cowardice',

@8 'liar', 'fool', 'stupidity', 'cowardice', bit strong methinks. Some of us have a (slightly) better opinion of Mr Obama.

Oh one point Bernard. Do

Oh one point Bernard. Do I take this to mean you categorically do not believe in free markets as the most efficient pricing and allocating mechanism?

Do you understand the philosophic implications of your stance on this, vis a vis, the freedom of the individual and their pursuit of happiness?

Bernard, another <b><a href="http://democrats.science.house.gov/

Bernard, another missive from NNT: worth sharing (I found the linky at a comment on CFN but I wouldn't saddle your tender readership with so much doom so early in the week).

A nice quote from NNT's 10 principles:

"People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be
given a new bus."

@Mark 'perfect' markets do not

@Mark 'perfect' markets do not exist, there are always distortions/inefficiencies, therefore blind pursuit of said markets does not necessarily result in greater individual 'freedom' etc

<b><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pub/matt-nippert/5/bb2/256"

Matt Nippert is a graduate of Columbia Journalism School. And wrote for the Listener.

That's all one needs to know to explain his 'mystification' aboot the Crapars' little crown-and-anchor escapade.

waymad, Great NNT logic as

waymad,
Great NNT logic as usual. Probably above their heads though.
I bought "The Black Swan" as soon as it was published. A very engaging read and should be 'de rigeur" for anyone attempting to handle money, even their own, let alone that of others.

Are we asking Alan Bollard

Are we asking Alan Bollard to mimik the Singapore goverment in their fight againsts another property boom ?? Fat chance that will work. The Singapore goverment is only doing cosmestic changes to scare some of the "fringe" speculators, it's effect will be minimal. The only control that they have is in the goverment housing sector (about 80% of the housing market). You can borrow at floating rate equal to 1.9%p.a.for property financing.....think they will succeed ??

Property bubble is a function of loose lending...or excessive credit (whatever we may call it ) If Alan Bollard is really trying to slow investment into property, the first thing he should do is to mandate banks not to lend more than 70%...and stick strict penalties if that is violated. (because banks WILL try to go round it) After that the goverment should release more land into housing (like forcing councils to reduce time and costs of land conversions)...Ever see that coming in NZ?? YEAH RIGHT !!!

Every thing now in US (and the rest of the world) is goverment run, except they try to hide it as much as possible. Once the goverment stops paying for everything, it will collapse. That will happen sooner or later.

The Crafer article will give

The Crafer article will give more fodder for the interest.co.nz blog comments mob to question the family's genetic disposition. For all the Crafer's failings, you can always rely on the good old mean-spirited tall-poppy shooter to give them an extra kick in the guts while they're down. Perhaps like Matt Nippert, I can see another side to the Crafers as a hard-grafting family whose business naivety isn't reflected in an ostentatious lifestyle (compared to many other less ambitious Kiwis).

Waymad Great link from Nassim

Waymad
Great link from Nassim Taleb. He doesn't muck around. cheers.

Mark
Hard to argue that unregulated investment banks worked, even with obscenely low rates.
The problem with unfettered capitalism is the wild swings from fear to greed and the failure to remember...

cheers
Bernard

JC Hold your judgment. We

JC

Hold your judgment. We know some stuff that will come out on this site in the next week or two that may change your mind.
I have no problem with ambition. But their mad debt-fueled land grab was the worst and biggest kind of bad business decision making we've seen in New Zealand in recent years.

cheers
Bernard

Governments have been controlling the

Governments have been controlling the most important price(s) in the world: the price of interest. This is the biggest (and should be most obvious) cause of the recent boom, and the corresponding recession that we are in now.

Look at it this way: if a Government set a price for a loaf of bread, and there were serious problems with the market for bread (i.e. surpluses, shortages, quality problems, layoffs in bakers etc), would you not blame the Government's regulations?

Why is there any difference?

If you would like to know more about the economics of the boom/recession, please read this book: http://mises.org/books/econforrealpeople.pdf, especially chapters 9 & 12.

And just to reiterate: there is NO free market in banking (and has been no free market in banking in a very long time), therefore it is nonsensical to blame the free market for the current economic problems.

@Mark For the lack of

@Mark

For the lack of a better term, I'm Libertarian, but some may label me a Whig. I see nothing wrong with regulation. "Laissez Faire" can not work as long as you have several markets and barriers to entry that precluded enough actors to create an efferent system. Deregulation, in all its various forms, was a failure. The markets were so corrupt and inefficient that they we almost set to fail. Deregulation was simply the match that allowed it to happen faster. Many Libertarians are now having a crisis of faith based on the failure of deregulation. But I do agree. I think regulation, when properly implemented, is not only sufficient but absolutely necessary for competition. I view regulation the same way I view standards. We need standards so that we are all speaking the same language. I might speak inches and you might speak centimeters and we run the risk miscommunication. The markets could set these standards, and often do, but history has shown that only government intervention will sort this out and help set and more importantly maintain the standard. Governments are extremely good at standardizing things that do not change often: time, temperature, length, etc. The entire world relies on governments to keep accurate time, location, etc. Nobody complains about the government's time keeping or their ability to maintain the GPS system. I welcome government intervention on the long view. Governments are great at building long-term infrastructure that adds value to the markets and creates real wealth. High tide lifts all boats.

So the first thing is to acknowledge that governments can do things more effectively then the private sector. The idea is to figure out what those are. One form of regulation and/or standardization I champion is to regulation the markets much like a referee regulates a rugby game. We all hate referees, but we can all agree they are a necessary evil to make a game more competitive. It's not perfect, but its close enough for government work. So as long as regulation helps level the playing field I see nothing wrong with it. In fact, I welcome it and it doesn't cause a crisis of faith in my political beliefs as both a Libertarian and Whig!

Mark said... <i>what caused the

Mark said...
what caused the meltdown was lack of free markets - true, laissez faire markets.

The main cause was Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), in other words, government interference.

Are the Crafer's any different

Are the Crafer's any different from Air NZ or from Telecom , who also blundered badly in expanding , for the sake of being bigger , or to massage the director's egos . They screwed up . Take a leaf from Michael Hill's business model . He has grown his empire at a measured pace . Hallenstein Glassons too . The common thread ? Be greedy shrewdly and slowly . Tortoise 1 : Rabbit 0

Bernard said: <i>Hard to argue

Bernard said:

Hard to argue that unregulated investment banks worked, even with obscenely low rates.

As you know, there had been, until the credit crunch, a tidal wave of 'money supply/cheap credit' circling the globe looking for an investment home, a product of the central bank/ fractional banking system, of which Greenspan was an integral part, distorting the cost of that credit, thus, combined with my next point, reckless decisions were made. But that is a systemic fault of the monetary systems that we have, which are not part of true free markets - nothing like it - and thus not a result of regulation per se. You've got to get your horse before the cart and look at the initiating causes.

Plus, I mentioned in my last paragraph there was another fatal flaw in our crony capitalist systems that led to this mess, which relates directly to your second point Bernard:

The problem with unfettered capitalism is the wild swings from fear to greed and the failure to remember"¦

Yes, the failure to remember. The biggest of these firms, certainly, knew they didn't have to take the true consequences of their recklessness, for they 'were too big to fail', and would be bailed out. As they were, instead of the market exacting its true price.

And thus we're set up for the next collapse, as what will be 'remembered' by the investment banks out of this mess is that by playing along and colluding with the State, they do not have to remember the lessons of the market, they just have to put their hands out and take taxpayer dollars, those same taxpayers, many of whom had lost their money.

But I've not read that article yet. I will, most probably, tonight.

CRA the 'main cause', what

CRA the 'main cause', what a joke! Poor little banks, big nasty government.

Logical Dave said... <i>“The Black

Logical Dave said...
"The Black Swan" as soon as it was published. A very engaging read and should be "˜de rigeur" for anyone attempting to handle money, even their own, let alone that of others.

Black Swan is explained by the power-law. This phenomena has been known to physicists for decades. Econo-physicists have found that market dynamics follow a power-law (black-swan type rare-event). The foundation of neoclassical economics is at shaky here, because it is based on normal distribution (bell-curve) where in fact the real market is not normal but have fat tail (power-law). The sooner neoclassical economics is ditched, the better. This means the sooner all current economics/finance textbooks are eliminated from university curriculum the better.

Bernard. In point 5 you

Bernard. In point 5 you quote from Frank's NYT article where he said ".. It was never reasonable to have expected market forces to protect society from the consequences of this risky behavior."

Bernard and Frank: You have dropped the context here.The risky behaviour occured because the government via Fannie and Freddie was underwriting risky mortgages, mortgages which would not usually be undertaken by commercially minded companies. You cannot then blame market forces for failing to prevent the risky behaviour which would necessarily result since the normal incentives which markets rely on have been completely undermined by government intervention.

What makes you think that such intervention is consistent with a free market?

Julian

Bill said... <i>CRA the ‘main

Bill said...
CRA the "˜main cause', what a joke!

And your point was?
...
...
...
None.

Wrong Bill. Fannie Mae and

Wrong Bill. Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac where the physical trigger of the credit crunch, and under their GSE status, they were not banks, they were welfare agencies, doling out cheap credit to those who, if market conditions had been applied, were unbankable. As was the case with CRA regulated banks.

Read the relevant articles in the Mises Bailout reader:

http://mises.org/story/3128

Especially the two articles under that heading, and the links to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac analysis.

But that's it for today, I'm way behind where I'm supposed to be in the 'real world'.

[Oh, a repeat, sorry - yes, what Julian said.]

Bernard, There's no mystification here

Bernard,

There's no mystification here as to why the Crafar's went under. I believe I spelt out how their growth was reliant on heavy borrowing and contingent on a sunshine economy, as well as sketching out their small-business family-farm model was maintained even when their revenue surged above $100m.

And, if you're going to slam the Crafar's lack of business nous, you could at least spell their name right.

Cheers,
Matt Nippert

Bernard replies. Many thanks Matt. I spelt the name correctly in the headline and then lapsed. My apologies. I have corrected. My argument is that the tone of your piece is that the Crafars (correct) are an unlucky bunch of curmudgeons who we should feel sorry for. There is much more to this story which your article didn't draw on.
I appreciate your story. There's some fantastic quotes. I fear though you have fallen for the usual Crafar snow job.

cheers
Bernard

Okay, fair enough the 'main

Okay, fair enough the 'main cause' was not bad investment decisions and lending practices of private companies, it was the CRA. Damn government if only they hadn't interfered.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb regards the

Nassim Nicholas Taleb regards the Nobel prize in economics as a disgrace, a laughable endorsement of the worst kind of Dr John economics. He has appealed to the King of Sweden recently to scrap the Nobel prize awards for economic. I think that it is a good call.

Falafulu Fisi, please explain why

Falafulu Fisi,
please explain why the CRA was the cause.

Gibber: see my post above,

Gibber: see my post above, and Julian's. And follow my links.

Still with the CrapFarms debacle.

Still with the CrapFarms debacle. They had the distinction of applying to pipe their effluent over the boundary into the adjacent Regional Council, which just happened to have fewer controls.

I just cannot believe that no-one has used the phrase 'bet the farm' as yet.

Oh, wait..

Matt - He spelt it

Matt - He spelt it right sometimes, so it's a typo. Also, when nit-picking someone's spelling or grammar, it's important to watch your apostrophes very carefully.

Oh, the pains of hand-fettled

Oh, the pains of hand-fettled HTML. And trying to bee clevver.

Piping goo over t'hill

@Gibber, it's propaganda to get

@Gibber, it's propaganda to get the blame shifted to you know who. (presumably for the purpose of avoiding regulation)

I wonder if the IRD

I wonder if the IRD has noticed the point about the Crafar's lack of business systems.

In my opinion this quote tells you all you need to know about the man:

"I've ended up in the greatest job in New Zealand - I've 20,000 girlfriends, I get to play with tits all my life, and my wife doesn't get jealous."

For the grammar nazi: http://www.wikihow.com/Use-Apostrophes

"Do I take this to

"Do I take this to mean you categorically do not believe in free markets as the most efficient pricing and allocating mechanism?"

I certainly dont, as demonstrated in the last year....and I dont think you will find to many ppl that do. Example, "free markets" dont price in the exhaustion of materiel until too late...peak oil is a classic example, or indeed any raw material...ie "free markets" have allowed us to pretty much exhaust fast areas of raw commodities in 2~3 generations, leaving the next 100? with very little (by comparison).

"Do you understand the philosophic implications of your stance on this, vis a vis, the freedom of the individual and their pursuit of happiness?"

yes, as its an extremist point of view. Society is a collection of people who 'together' move forward....Libertanz seem to have lost this most fundamental of fundamentals but then they are extremists who form a fraction of a % of the population. For a normal person you can certainly enjoy considerable freedom within the context of the society you belong to and contribute to. If however you dont contribute to that society in a fair manner, you are in effect a parasite on it....others have to shoulder your share of the burden and indeed shoulder you as in effect you freeload within on the historic capital previous generations contributed, eg everything from writing, science to roading, Libertanz sponge off.

ie, Libertnz consider it fair to have a publicly funded police, justice and jail system....so its OK to tax me to pay for what you want, but not OK to tax you for what I want...that to me is fundamentally immoral...

Now if we had anarchy, I can go for that, I dont pay for you at all and you dont pay for me, sounds fair....I can then find a group of like minded people and found our own society within anarchy based on like wants and can exclude you. Which in effect is of course what has happened over several thousands of years...

regards

@Bill: Some of us thought

@Bill: Some of us thought he would really or could really change things....he is actually roving he cant or wont....His administration is a flex pointfor the US. He needed to be one of the best Presidents / Leaders the US has / will produce....it is critical for the USA and indeed the rest of the world that Obama makes and takes the hard decisions and sorts America out. He clearly is reneging on just about everything he said before he got elected....hence I think the comments are justified....I expected this from McCain and even Clinton...I had hoped Obama wouldnt be this bad, he clearly is.

regards

For all you guys criticising

For all you guys criticising the Crafers based on a couple of "crazy" quotes in the media and the fact he didn't have a computer --- if your conclusions are correct this makes our banking industry look like much bigger plonkers , huge bonuses and all . They lent them the money.

@Bernard: A cracking 10 at

@Bernard: A cracking 10 at 10.

@troy, Agree....nicley worded....sums up my

@troy, Agree....nicley worded....sums up my attitude well.

regards

"Was ‘double or quits’ a

"Was "˜double or quits' a business plan the bankers accepted?"

Sure was, remember the bankers saying that they will support thier farming clients through the tough times.

The banks have known its double or quits for a while now, they and the farmers have simlply run out of time.....

Now the banks will be looking to go from "double or quits" to "damage control", this is where the funding gets contorled and equity gets damaged. (munted).

@steven: it's the language I

@steven: it's the language I took exception to, there's a fine line between an assertively expressed opinion and a vitriolic attack

"For all you guys criticising

"For all you guys criticising the Crafers based on a couple of "crazy" quotes in the media and the fact he didn't have a computer "” if your conclusions are correct this makes our banking industry look like much bigger plonkers , huge bonuses and all . They lent them the money."

Probably a much more interesting side of the story in my opinion. And it still bothers me that anonymous people sneer at the Crafers as uncouth peasants with little understanding of how the farming business should work. Like I said earlier, it stinks of the pettiness of NZers when someone gets too big for their boots. There's no reason why the Crafers couldn't have succeeded with the help of professional business managers who understood the wider risks involved.

controled - duh

controled - duh

@Ross - you are quite

@Ross - you are quite right, the bankers were crazy and gambled as much as the Crafars.

The criticism here is justified however. They showed no respect for environmental law and appear to have run their business in a careless and negligent manner. The quotes just confirm how sorry the whole debacle is.

@ Steven... You're not advocating

@ Steven... You're not advocating Anarchy are you???

Perhaps MH has a screaming desire to be a caveman...

Anyway... what it seems we all agree on is this... "to err is human"... and we sure do a great job of it!

Those that think they have a better way fail to recognise the BASIC fault in every society is in the constituent components. There is no solution to this.

The 'Yank Bashers' all have their own barrow to push...

"Oh no, not me... I'm for PEACE and HARMONY..." , yeah right!

Please remember the time tested (if temporary) solution to depressions of the scale looming ever larger, is always the same... Mr China wants a bit (or a lot) more land and resources, has a tad too many souls to looks after... Hmmm... what shall we do? Go get some more space eh? BANG BANG... two birds, one stone... they have NO OPTION.

Have we forgotten that the Chinese Defence minister has already said that they will be in Washington before the US can even react?

Forget the state of our finances folks... what about the state of our defences?

@Ross: A computer, not so

@Ross: A computer, not so much that as he doesn't appear to have had "books" at all or any short term, medium term plan(ning)....his own review of how he was doing? for $200million you just have to have some sort of records and a way to crunch numbers. Either that or he has a photographic memory and is a brilliant statistician (so why the wall calender?)....all the while he plays with thousands of tits....where's the tui add anyone....

Do I think the bankers are bonkers/plonkers? yes....anyone who lends $200million without seeing a business plan and some cashflow numbers wants sacking right now.

regards

Bill It was a very

Bill
It was a very assertive opinion. But I believe it. He failed and it is costing us all dearly.

Waymad
You go that Crafarms link? I can plug it in for you

cheers
Bernard

"There’s no reason why the

"There's no reason why the Crafers couldn't have succeeded with the help of professional business managers who understood the wider risks involved."

That would be thier rural managers then JC. You are dead right, the Crafers are just hard working people.

Allen relied on phyical hard work to make his money, he left the fiscal stuff up to his bankers, advisors, and accountants. They were no help at all (in the end).

ControLLed - DUH! Sorry Stevel

ControLLed - DUH!

Sorry Stevel couldn't resist!

Bernard, another <b><a href="http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1142" rel

Bernard, another little blog gem from David Goldman (Spengler). And there's a new Spengler post too!

"Over time, China will attempt to trade $2 trillion worth of Treasury securities for $2 trillion of production inputs. In this order, China's priorities are food, food, food, energy, food, iron ore, food, copper, food, and food again."

If we play our cards right - I mean gamble wisely, heck, enough with the metaphors - see the light, NZInc should do all right from this selection. Especially if we can find some more iron ore under that Schedule 4 land....

Falafulu Fisi said "The main

Falafulu Fisi said "The main cause was Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), in other words, government interference."

The CRA was not the main cause - it was a contributing factor, but the main cause was that cheap money, created by the Federal Reserve, flowed into a sector where the usual contraints on risk taking had been undermined by the government underwriting of mortgages. The CRA didn't help by making it necessary for banks to provide certain groups (many with questionable credit quality) mortgages which they would not normally have access to. However, the CRA did play a role. And what happens when you do not comply with the CRA? Earlier this year, the FDIC formally reprimanded a bank based in New England for not lending enough in a review of its performance under CRA.) Nevertheless, even without the CRA, the incentives to lend to sub-prime borrowers existed (with the government having guaranteed the mortgages via Fannie and Freddie). The CRA likely exacerbated the incentive.

Julian

@ Bill ‘liar’, ‘fool’, ’stupidity’,

@ Bill "˜liar', "˜fool', 'stupidity', "˜cowardice', bit strong methinks. Some of us have a (slightly) better opinion of Mr Obama.

Obviously some of you dont know or follow obamas promises, that is why he is very fast becoming the most unpopular president in history, he tells a good story just dosnt follow through, bernard description is pretty spot on

Iron ore makes what?... Tanks,

Iron ore makes what?...

Tanks, 80 new warships, not bullets quite! Need some lead... who sells that stuff, gotta find some quick!

The whole world it seems is fighting to sell our resources at cut prices, and it's all gonna come back some day!

@jamman: No and yes.... No

@jamman: No and yes....

No I am not.

But I admire anarchy's purity, that does not mean I think it would work. What I see it as is a theoretical opportunity to start again thing. These Libertanz nuts seem to think its OK to live within an existing society not paying for all the hidden advantages. Anarchy gets around that, it allows a group(s) of people to start again from scratch....again in theory. So if we had say FTL travel, the few thousand Libertanzis could collectively go live on their own planet and everyone would be happy. We'd be happy to be rid of them and they'd be happy to be free........indeed that could be said for just about any fringe group.

For me, t\e society we have today is based on evolution/iteration...its had 10,000 years to put together a method/system that supports people....I dont think I for one could design something so robust from scratch myself in one generation....

regards

Steve, Thanks for the clarification.

Steve,

Thanks for the clarification. Don't think I'd want to have a go at doing a better job either!
The fundamental problem is the same everywhere... humans!

Can't say what I'd like, Bernard might censor it! (Ideaology not language obviously!)

Anarchy won't work for the same reasons... 'somebody' likes to do nasty things...

Just think... declare anarchy for a day... what would you do? HIDE!

@Julian: Well corrected, the CRA

@Julian: Well corrected, the CRA only had a small effect. This disaster was caused by the private banks and lenders, the real mayhem was the fraudulent private lending and the multiplier effects of the CDS's...

It takes a real hard nosed GOP supporter to believe the CRA was the prime cause....but then logic isnt their strong point...

regards

@nat liar, perhaps, the rest

@nat liar, perhaps, the rest is hyperbole

Thanks dic

Thanks dic

Steven it is evident you

Steven it is evident you have no idea of the difference between anarchism, and a minarchist, Libertarian state. I have neither the time nor desire to educate you on it. Try Google.

For me, te society we have today is based on evolution/iteration

Yes, and capitalism, free markets, have evolved as the single most successful market system at delivering freedom from tyranny, in all it's guises, innovation, and higher standards of living and of health and well being, than any other system, including every controlled economy, which by their nature, are imposed on necessarily controlled societies. The West 'has been' - quickly becoming not the case, unfortunately - the best civilisation to live in the history of humanity, and that Western philosophic tradition is at base the classical liberal, humanist, individualistic ethic that a true free market capitalism arises from and in turn, makes possible.

Definitive. End of story. End of lunch. (Though I'm wondering if Bernard is going to reply to my, Julian's, or Falafulu's posts and questions, given it was he who raised the challenge in the first instance?)

Trev and Steven -- my

Trev and Steven -- my comments were a little "tongue in cheek". But as Stevenl says the real story is how the banks allowed lending to this level to occur if there were no good financial records , planning etc around. All it says is that the banks have potentially even worse systems in place. There has to be much more to this story yet.
Most of it will revolve around alot of bankers running around trying cover their rear ends.
Trev -- I read the other day the Crafers had employed a "Compliance " Officer to look after their environmental issue so they weren't entirely negligent.

Let us not forget that

Let us not forget that the banks and the housing bubble are two sides of the same coin. Neither can exist without the other, and if one goes, they both go.

We have moved from investing to speculation - when houses are not bought for returns but rather capital gains. Once this transition is made, the end is inevitable as there is a finite supply of greater fools. When there is no longer a fool at a higher price, then there is no market.

The banks know this and they are stuck. 40-50% of their assets are secured by residential property - they must keep loaning money to keep the circus going, because if they stop, its game over.

If prices continue to rise at even 2%, we go hyperbolic... at 10% we get there faster. Eventually there must be a limit to the amount of phony money and the wheel falls off. When that happens, look out below!

Mark and Steven, get a

Mark and Steven, get a room ;-)

@Julian "The CRA didn’t help

@Julian

"The CRA didn't help by making it necessary for banks to provide certain groups (many with questionable credit quality) mortgages which they would not normally have access to."

Government forced banks to lend to people with no credit or be shut down. When ever there is a disaster of such magnitude, always look toward political incompetance as a contributing factor. Remember that goverment is bought and paid for by business interests - the same business interests who own the media and who spins the news we read.

Fascisim awaits those who don't see the expansion of government at the expense of the private sector.

TO JC. You want to

TO JC.
You want to see down??? go to the Crafters' farm in Taupo and see the condition of the cows. Then we'll see if you still think they are great guys. These guys are very poor farmers and now apparently very bad businessmen.
They borrowed and they lost. there is an old saying in farming to be successful - feed the cows before yourself and they will feed you. Alan Crafer does not follow this lead.
The reason people attack him is because he keeps saying foolish things to go with foolish actions.

@Bernard: "<i>The problem with unfettered

@Bernard: "The problem with unfettered capitalism is . . . "

And when was the last time we experienced this "unfettered capitalism" Bernard?

I'd be very keen to know? Certainly not in my lifetime, or yours.

@ Stephen "This disaster was

@ Stephen "This disaster was caused by the private banks and lenders, the real mayhem was the fraudulent private lending and the multiplier effects of the CDS's"¦"

The Federal Reserve is a private bank and is the cause of the crisis through its manipulation of the most importance price in the an economy - the price of money, aka the interest rate. However, do not forget that the US government permits the Fed to operate as a protected monopoly so to directly blame the private sector or private banks for this mess is not necessarily fair.The government's protection of the Fed and giving it monopoly control of the money supply is the root of the problem. Remove this interference in the market, and usual market incentives will arise to minimise the probability of such a crisis. Note that CDSs (which are perfectly good financial instruments when subject to normal market regulation ie market incentives) etc were not the cause of the problem, their use (and abuse) was a result of the environment whereby losses were socialised and profits privatised.

Bernard: I ask again, why do you blame the free market for what happened?

Julian

Bernard wrote "The problem with

Bernard wrote
"The problem with unfettered capitalism is the wild swings from fear to greed and the failure to remember"¦"
We cannot protect ourselves from failure.
In all levels of our culture we seem afraid of allowing failure.
At the individual level, we do not allow those on the bottom of the heap to learn from their mistakes: we have a guaranteed safety net with no evaluation of behavior. Our social welfare is like the harried mother, playing the martyr, constantly picking up after lazy children, allowing no opportunity for her children to learn to be socially responsible citizens. But failure teaches resilience and builds character.
At the organisational level, those deemed to big to fail are bailed out, more and more resources are poured in, the organisation is sicker than before.
Jeffrey Tucker http://mises.org/story/3109 on the Glories of Change writing about the organisations that were allowed to fail:
"The events on Wall Street, the collapse of Lehman and the selling off of Merrill, are magnificent and inspiring events. What we see here are examples of sweeping and fundamental change taking place, a huge upheaval that affects the whole of society, and toward the better, since what we have going on here is a massive reallocation of resources away from failing uses toward more productive uses."
We also have to remind ourselves we still have a central planned money supply. There is no free market in sound money. See
http://www.lewrockwell.com/spl/inflations-moral-hazard.html
to understand what the Government has been doing with our store of wealth.

I reckon those are going

I reckon those are going to be eight well informed kids, mum ;) And we probably won't see any of them throwing bottles in Dunedin.

I love that first bit of your post.

@Julien I think Bernard was

@Julien I think Bernard was referring to deregulation in the name of market freedom that allowed a number of banks to disastrously exploit their position of being too big to fall.

So not the 'free market' per se but rather dangerous deregulation in the name of market freedom given existing economic circumstances.

@mum of 8: it must be hard, forgoing any kind of social welfare when you have such a large family

@waymad: hence I wonder about

@waymad: hence I wonder about the longer term view of our FTA with China....Theoretically it allows China to come here with "worthless" USD and buy food from under NZers noses.....

@mark: I dont think Libertanz do either....they seem to be a tiny fraction of the population (1000 voters from 2million?), and indeed seem to be fragmented even further within....

Capitalism the best? sort of....If you continue to not take the future into account. For the last few hundred years capitalism has enjoyed its supremacy because it has proven the most successful system to exploit cheap resources, so in effect we have refined a terrible beast we now have to control. This is because right now things are changing, in fact its probably in-arguable that capitalism cannot survive when it no longer enjoys cheap unlimited resources as its inputs. What we have really developed is a system that is highly efficient for living today and not for tomorrow or for future generations. Capitalism/consumerism is like the locusts, we have scoured the earth and indeed left so little behind that the natural recovery or re-production rate of the eco-system is damaged....and the longer we leave fixing the nightmare the worse that damage becomes and the tougher for those fewer in the next generations are going to find it...

This is why I object to so called "Libertanz" and "Freedom nuts" so much, in effect its abdicating responsibility for ones impact on the planet and its future just to satisfy yourself, now today no matter what the cost and expense on anyone else, the passive smoking of politics in effect.

regards

@martin: "Government forced banks to

@martin: "Government forced banks to lend to people with no credit or be shut down." that is simply not true.

Dear oh dear Steven. You've

Dear oh dear Steven. You've got the Green belly ache real bad.

If you continue to not take the future into account. For the last few hundred years capitalism has enjoyed its supremacy because it has proven the most successful system to exploit cheap resources,

You have overlooked the solution to your perceived ills of capitalism, a solution that capitalism has at its very heart, and is the only system that promotes it so successfully: innovation and entrepreneurship.

New technologies, better ways to use resources, to 'make' resources - the ingenuity of man's mind.

It's not coincidence the biggest real polluters of the planet, and those that have exhausted short term supplies of resources, namely food, have always been the controlled, command economies.

Put you back 100 years and what, you'd be saying those dreadful capitalists, look at those evil Penny Farthings, using up all that iron and leather. It's the end of the world ... ;)

The limited forms of capitalism we have had have been successful for the reasons I have given: freedom, well being, higher standards of living, and oh, unlike planned economies, capitalist countries have never been able to embark on the wholesale slaughter of its citizens.

anarchism only looks good on

anarchism only looks good on pap...wait....who took my paper?

anarchism: I only talk to stranger I really know well

"We started off trying to

"We started off trying to set up a small anarchist community, but people wouldn't obey the rules."

:-D :-D :-D

Anarchism is everything Government isn't

Anarchism is everything Government isn't
Freedom is everywhere Government isn't

thus

Anarchism = Freedom.

Bill Nobody talks about Fight

Bill

Nobody talks about Fight Club!

SHHHhhhhhhh

Martin, well that is certainly

Martin, well that is certainly true for the people of Somalia, since they don't have any Govt... wouldn't expect it to be that great to live there though !!

Getting back to task. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance

Getting back to task.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6190818/US-cr...

Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said US bank loans have fallen at an annual pace of almost 14pc in the three months to August (from $7,147bn to $6,886bn).

"There has been nothing like this in the USA since the 1930s," he said. "The rapid destruction of money balances is madness."

The M3 "broad" money supply, watched as an early warning signal for the economy a year or so later, has been falling at a 5pc annual rate.

Similar concerns have been raised by David Rosenberg, chief strategist at Gluskin Sheff, who said that over the four weeks up to August 24, bank credit shrank at an "epic" 9pc annual pace, the M2 money supply shrank at 12.2pc and M1 shrank at 6.5pc.

"For the first time in the post-WW2 [Second World War] era, we have deflation in credit, wages and rents and, from our lens, this is a toxic brew," he said.

It is unclear why the US Federal Reserve has allowed this to occur.

Chairman Ben Bernanke is an expert on the "credit channel" causes of depressions and has given eloquent speeches about the risks of deflation in the past.

"Oh one point Bernard. Do

"Oh one point Bernard. Do I take this to mean you categorically do not believe in free markets as the most efficient pricing and allocating mechanism?"

Even Ronald Coase, the famed British economist, who many purported advocates of free-markets often quote to buttress their arguments found it isn't.

"The traditional economic theory of the time suggested that, because the market is "efficient" (that is, those who are best at providing each good or service most cheaply are already doing so), it should always be cheaper to contract out than to hire.

Coase noted, however, that there are a number of transaction costs to using the market; the cost of obtaining a good or service via the market is actually more than just the price of the good. Other costs, including search and information costs, bargaining costs, keeping trade secrets, and policing and enforcement costs, can all potentially add to the cost of procuring something with a firm. This suggests that firms will arise when they can arrange to produce what they need internally and somehow avoid these costs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Coase

Just for the record, Libertarianzs

Just for the record, Libertarianzs are not anarchists.

Next red herring, please.

Thanks PC, we were beginning

Thanks PC, we were beginning to wonder...

AndrewJ... Apocalypse NOW? or just SOON?

Not now... soon, yes.

BTW (this sounds shockingly cliche) but "WHERE'S WALLY?"

@mark: You rely on scientists

@mark: You rely on scientists and engineers to dig you out of the poo....yet when those same scientists and engineers tell you about AGW you deny it....

"New technologies, better ways to use resources, to "˜make' resources - the ingenuity of man's mind."

I'm an engineer....I also have a theoretical background in thermodynamics ...ie the maths of a perfect machine(s) is well understood...and pretty much has been for 100 years...

Or if you will energy in == energy out.....When the sun puts so many watts per square KM per year then that is a fundamental max any process can extract...so if it is say 4Kw, that's 100% efficiency that is the best you can ever do, 4kw per year per sq Km.

Oil on the other hand is the result of that 4kw per year for thousands indeed 100,000's or years...all squashed, concentrated and cracked ready for you to pull out of the ground and refine a bit.....

It is a whole different ball game.

The best way to describe it is, a cartoon I saw with a buffalo hunter on it saying, (paraphrase) "No more buffalo!? extinct?! dont worry give me more hunters and more trackers and I'll find more buffalo!"

Yes I agree that the totalitarian systems have been worse, and yes considerably and indeed capitalism has been and is more efficient...but that does not matter....what I am saying is capitalism will die, there is too little left for it to be efficient on....

"capitalist countries have never been able to embark on the wholesale slaughter of its citizens." Indeed they have instead embarked on wholesale slaughter of other countries citizens.

Also I am a father....I want the very best for my children and eventually grand-children....from my perspective as an engineer I see that we are leaving them little, potentially very little and indeed not just resources but little freedom and a very tough and shortened life as well.

ie the biggest problem I have with you and your ilk Mark is that you steadfastly defend your freedoms today at the risk of a considerable loss of your or future generations freedoms tomorrow, that I see as illogical to be frank nutty extremism.

@andrewJ"It is unclear why the US Federal Reserve has allowed this to occur." probably because he cant fix it....I agree with Peter Schiff/Jim Rogers, the banks should have been allowed to fail....not because I agree with that ie its the best way....but because I dont think they can stop it happening...ie its the only way and I think now its un-avoidable. If they had been cleaned up in a controlled manner maybe, but that didnt happen, so the only option left is implosion from their own hand ....

regards

Oh for Christ's sake. <i>ie

Oh for Christ's sake.

ie the biggest problem I have with you and your ilk Mark is that you steadfastly defend your freedoms today at the risk of a considerable loss of your or future generations freedoms tomorrow, that I see as illogical to be frank nutty extremism.

No, what you 'and your ilk' are advocating is slavery now, and well done, basically we have it.

Do you seriously think I set about my life trying to deplete the worlds resources so my grandchildren will starve? Of course not: they can have a better standard of living than me, if we can avoid the Gulags of our own making the West is headed fora again.

Re oil, yes, one day that will run out, but innovation is already working us toward that stage. So long as you don't succumb to the scare mongering of the peak oil lobby, which at this stage is BS - I've left links on another thread on this, perhaps some kind person might want to find them, I've not the time to put them back up - there is probably two, three or four generations, perhaps longer, of oil left. That leaves plenty of time for innovation that is already occurring.

"capitalist countries have never been able to embark on the wholesale slaughter of its citizens." Indeed they have instead embarked on wholesale slaughter of other countries citizens.

Says everything about where you're coming from. I know of no capitalist country that has embarked on war other than to defend its freedoms. Libertarians believe in the non-initiation of force, but also in the defense of their freedoms when force is used against them. Or do you believe in letting tyrants rule? Please answer.

Also I am a father"¦.I want the very best for my children and eventually grand-children"¦.from my perspective as an engineer I see that we are leaving them little, potentially very little and indeed not just resources but little freedom and a very tough and shortened life as well.

Your children can only be guaranteed freedom, the volition to rule their own lives, in a capitalist economy, and I would say in a Libertarian society, which is not the tyranny of the majority democracies we have today.

The best way to describe it is, a cartoon I saw with a buffalo hunter on it saying, (paraphrase) "No more buffalo!? extinct?! dont worry give me more hunters and more trackers and I'll find more buffalo!"

You keep telling me you're an engineer as if it's some talisman: well engage your engineers mind: what's the fix for this? Answer: to farm the buffalo. As did happen, humanity began farming - growing crops, herding livestock - and the advent of farming pushed us forward again, innovation, peace, increased standards of living, and increased freedoms.

You really ought to trying forward thinking for once: you are hopelessly stuck in some type of Marxist, Cult of Green past.

LOL. When all else fails

LOL.

When all else fails Mark can be relied upon to tell you that you are a leftist treehugger.

AH - please keep laughing...

AH - please keep laughing... it seems he's serious... please call 111...
The white coat men will be here soon!

However... perhaps Steven needs a dose too...

Left, right, left, right.... sounds like the marching of jackboots...

Roll on the Millennium... then well see who was right.. neither of them I feel....

Where's the balance?

I feel myself siding with

I feel myself siding with Steven on this one.. and I'm not even a leftist greenie.. I must be having a mid-life crisis !!!

Matt S: here's the test.

Matt S: here's the test. On the basis of what hard facts do you feel yourself siding with Steven?

Hard facts, not the touchy feelys.

But I can't agree with

But I can't agree with the unqualified statement of "wholesale slaughter of other countries citizens"...

The pacifist arguement about even the 'worst' or the Allies war actions (in ending it) about the N-Bomb is based on hype. The numbers added up... more Civillians were expected to die in an invasion than with the bomb...

Might pay to qualify any of the harshest statements with some fact Steven... other than that I can't think you're too unreasonable... except that one other thing... which is of couse of utmost importance but... they won't let me write it!

MH - Since you introduced

MH - Since you introduced His Name... one thing lackest thou(?)

I'd have to wholeheartedly agree

I'd have to wholeheartedly agree with Peak Oil for starters .. and the war for the extraction, supply, delivery and consumption of oil, dressed up as the "War on Terror" (..wholesale slaughter of other countries citizens) etc.

Can't argue with that !!

Edit: Oh, and and not to mention NZ sending our SAS to Afghanistan, doing our part (to secure the supply of oil to the West).

Matt, Sorry we seem to

Matt, Sorry we seem to be passing posts...

War for oil??? Get real.

Saddam killed more of his own Citizens every year than have died since the war began...

Get real!

The US, though far from perfect, have taken up their responsibility to maintain some form of peace and reduce risks to peoples all over the world...

You and I benefit from it, though we may not necessarilly appreciate all the implications...

Hard facts , Mark ?

Hard facts , Mark ? We are joining the global throng to embrace an emissions trading scheme . Which is going to actually achieve what ? I have outgrown sitting in a circle , holding hands , and singing Kumbaya ........ . When the heck is the world going to grow up . .............. ....Fairy tales , Hans Christian Anderson , is for pre-schoolers . Geez Louise !

Jammam - I miss your

Jammam - I miss your point...Saddam killed more of his own Citizens every year than have died since the war began"¦ So was Saddam a Libertarian?

Mouse... was @ Stevens/Matts diatribe

Mouse... was @ Stevens/Matts diatribe on AntiCapitalism.

Hey there's a point though... perhaps he was?

What do you think the

What do you think the time frame for peak oil is? Do you think we are now at peak oil?

And the war on terror, is just that, only the cynical want to see it as being for oil. If it was about oil, then it would make more sense for America to be sending the army against Chavez, they certainly have the excuse to do so, well, will soon (Venezuela, has been granted a $2 billion loan from Russia to buy tanks and anti-missile systems.)

Incidentally Chavez, creator of another controlled economy about to starve its people, those the death squads don't get first. These Big State monsters always end up killing the citizenry, or locking them up.

Mark, Peak Oil (production) is

Mark, Peak Oil (production) is not the same think as oil "depletion", although they are related the two terms are often confused. If you head on over to http://www.theoildrum.com there is plenty of information there.

Not sure what happening here

Not sure what happening here guys... peak oil?

Technology??? Mark, you're right about not worrying about peak oil. But technology won't help... the technology is there already to produce more energy than the earth will need for the next 100,000 years...

But, but, but... what's the but? Human nature... same technology makes big mess!

Some guys tried to persuade me years ago that European engineers had developed a method to make a nuclear reactor small enough and safe enough to power individual cars.

My reaction? "Oh yeah? Let see you go to the nearest BP and ask for a couple of rods of plutonium!"

The only reason there is some consensus on Nuclear non-proliferation is because we know it will be abused.

Roger Thompson - Agreed the

Roger Thompson - Agreed the National/Maori party scheme is not going well... the Purpose is to help people understand the true costs of their purchase decisions/Lifestyle choises... rather than externalising those costs on to others.

As a Libertarian who seeks to live sustainably... I deplore picking up the tab for those who will not even accept there is a Climate Change/Peak Oil Issue on the Radar.

Sorry about hijacking the thread

Sorry about hijacking the thread .. we've been busy selling mortgages all day... time for a beer. !!

What " tab " ,

What " tab " , mouse . Facts ! Where is the tab , quantify it . And tell me how the ETF fixes anything . What is to be fixed ? The National/Maori scheme is only less deplorable than the Labour one , because it is less taxing . Labour love taxes . What the bloody hell is this " sustainibility " that Libertarians keep whittering on about ? It reminds me so much of Helen Clark ; fine sounding , meaningless dribble . And we're all meant to agree . Why ?

Back to the economic argument,

Back to the economic argument, albeit, this can't be separated from philosophy, et al.

Bernard

After throwing out the challenge, you have not answered some of the significant questions from:

Myself;
Falafulu Fisi;
Julian;
Peter Cresswell.

So, laissez faire freemarketers (and I note the odd Libertarian there): 1

State worshippers: 0

Steven said... <i>I’m an engineer….I

Steven said...
I'm an engineer"¦.I also have a theoretical background in thermodynamics "¦ie the maths of a perfect machine(s) is well understood"¦and pretty much has been for 100 years"¦

That means you would understand of how to solve the solution to a boundary heat-flow (heat-diffusion) problem using the partial differential heat equation ?

Umm! Not many engineers know how to do that (including you) but physicists do know how to solve such thermo-dynamic diffusion problem. The Black-Scholes model for pricing of options (financial derivative) was derived and solved using the heat-equation shown in the link above, which lead to Dr. Scholes and DR. Merton winning the economic Nobel Prize of 1997 for their effort in developing that model. Black-Scholes pricing model has some shortcomings, but it is still better than using guess work to price European options.

Now, natural resources is only useful if it has value, ie, someone somewhere want to use them. If they don't have value, then they're useless and are not resources. Oil was not a resources, until man found a use for it. If we run out of oil at some stage in the future then I am sure that the power of the market force will invent some material that are currently useless to us at the moment (ie, no use) to be used as a substitute for oil.

Oh for a REAL free

Oh for a REAL free market system. All I see almost everywhere I look is interventions, not markets. If I run my car to the ground because I wager that not putting oil in it will make it perform better, should the tax payer fork out for my car to get fixed? Hell no. My fault, my problem, my responsibility. What if it is a rental? Still my problem, and I should cop the bill. What if my car is 'too big to fail' eh? To big to fail is just another way of saying "We are too afraid to let the market punish us for our poor decisions and inefficient allocations of resources, so we shall intervene and pass the buck to someone else and thereby reward and encourage our own inefficiency, so we can repeat the process again."
This is blatantly a system of 'socialism for the rich elite', whereby monopoly men (the likes of JP Morgan) and the fed play coin toss with investors money saying "heads I win, tails you lose". If they bet right, they make a killing. If they bet wrong, the tax payer gets the bill, and they still make a killing. Then somehow the poor tax payer who is flicking the bill - pays the worst tax of all - inflation, and is then indoctrinated through lousy media reporting to believe that this is the fault of Capitalism? Then the now willing tax payer surrenders even more of his freedoms to the all-wise and powerful government and economic priesthood in the federal reserve to save him and the rest of main street from economic catastrophe and those evil capitalists, without realising it was the government and the fed that artificially created the whole mess in the first place! This is NOT capitalism, it is cronyism. Hopefully sooner rather than later, average Joe will work out that the governmental institutions in which he is putting his faith are not out to offer salvation to himself and main street, but to feed on him and many others like him as financial plankton in the economic ocean. Then maybe average Joe would join in the battle cry "Abolish the Fed" - the grand architect of worldwide economic slavery of the 20th & 21st centuries. No offence to anyone called Joe.

@Mark Any response to the

@Falafulu fisi..... You would use

@Falafulu fisi.....

You would use a computer to iterate the result and to be fair the maths for this stuff I did 15+ years ago, so remember how, no. Boundary heat flow is only part of the heat transfer....its a big resistance...

If you want to be offensive as well as blinkered then dont restrain yourself....

This problem above is however not material to the problem, it was not my point, there are however simpler points,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermodynamics#The_laws_of_thermodynamics

These basic equations layout the best a particular "engine" or process can achieve...its a fundimental law of physics....it cant be exceeded....then on top of that you have the imperfections and losses that mean you can never get to 100%....so when you say enginers and scientists will solve things you take no account of the laws of the universe, now if you believe in god fair enough, start praying...

In terms of the derivitives, this is maths, or applied maths, again this is not material to the running out of resources, as Paul Krugman said recently, freshwater econotwits have designed fancy math to explian things that they then worship as truth....

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/freshwater-rage/

Its getting them no where fast.....you are doing the same.

"natural resources are only useful if its has value" This is how you look at the world, this does not make your outlook correct...but lets go with that....the point I was making is that resources are finite, it has value to you today, but it might have even greater value to those future generations....

You assume that engineers given enough incentive will develope "somethings" to get you out of the poo. If that was the case wouldnt the nazis have won the second world war? you know putting a gun to the heads of your family is about the biggest encentive I can think of to invent "super" "things". Instead you assume market forces will do it, that is plainly silly.

If we run out of oil....the entire point of peak oil is not we have run out, its we have a peak oil flow rate and give of take 3 years we are there...ie thats the limit of energy input into the engine....in this case the engine is global GDP....once the peak oil flow rate drops so will global GDP unless GDP growth can be de-coupled from energy supply which will drop, which is unlikley therefore Global GDP must drop in parallel to oil output. and of course oil will get very expensive as its so crucial....its "inelastic" it seems so a small shortage cause a very big rise.

As far as running out goes, it is likely that there will always be crude oil, just it wont be found or it wont be economic to extract it, ie the energy input to the "engine" that gets it out yields less energy than put in....so the energy gets spent elsewhere....which means we have to get it from the Sun, other fossil fuels (coal) or nuclear. None of these produce such a rate of return as oil, they are simply way less effective....back to engineering again....

Then there is the time lag, oil fields discovered today take 8+ years to bring on line....this a known technology that is decades old and has a big fund of knowledge and experince from engineers and scientists behind it.....The process you think will be invented has to be invented today and put into production, even if it was as good as oil technology it would take eight years....so as Robert Hirsch said we should have started 20 years before peak oil...that was twenty years ago....there were no market forces to do that....

Right now today, there is nothing that does what oil can do at oil's efficiency, and low cost, nothing. So if you think its so easy become an engineer and not an ignoramus, lets face it its a multi-billion dollar industry critical to the world, you would be the next Bill Gates...

regards

Re Crafars. Where does this

Re Crafars. Where does this leave PGG Wrightsons. Who would have thought they would have exposed themselves to a debt of 25 million to one business. It raises so many questions. The obvious one is what other substantial loans do they have to dairy corporates. Also what is their security situation, and considering this is bad news on top of bad news, why have they not commented.

What about other big dairy

What about other big dairy farmers who have much higher debts than Crafars, who also have second mortgages and equity partners set up to lose their shirts. Many in the south island ?

Falafulu Fisi <blockquote> which lead

Falafulu Fisi

which lead to Dr. Scholes and DR. Merton winning the economic Nobel Prize of 1997

Nobel offers prizes in science, but not in economics. Dig a little.

Oops I should have said

Oops I should have said to one farm business. It seems a lot for a smaller financing outfit.
Andrew are you saying there are others out there who owe more than 200 mil?

Farmer Will: <blockquote> Where does

Farmer Will:

Where does this leave PGG Wrightsons.

I would think a little worse off than where they were as of their last accounts:

Total Current Assets: $902,208,000
Total Current Liabilities: $954,443,000

I am sure there is an accounting/legal term to describe that situation.

No just more than $25

No just more than $25 kg . I suspect there are at least 2 bigger than 200 million.

peterR
If my debts exceed my liabilities, Im insolvent,is that the world you were looking for.

So Peter would you have

So Peter would you have full confidence in chucking a heap of stock in one of their sales? The accounting term brought to mind suddenly makes me nervous.

Re;timing of peakoil - this

Re;timing of peakoil - this piece is of interest:

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50109

Its an interview with Steven Kopits. I have just highlighed a few salient points below from the article.

Who he is and who does he work for:

''I've spent most of my career and as a strategic management consultant and investment banker. I've focused on the energy business for the last several years, and now I manage the New York office of Douglas-Westwood, a UK-based energy-business consultancy. We're well known for our market research in the upstream oil and gas business. In the industry, we are considered the consultancy of record for our forecasts of offshore drilling and production, as well as for marine renewables like offshore wind. I am personally interested in macro oil markets and write frequently on issues related to peak oil''

''Incidentally, what is interesting is the difference in feedback between Washington DC, New York and Houston regarding peak oil. When I'm on the east coast, I tend to use "peak oil" in quotes, and I am usually somewhat cautious speaking about the topic. In Houston, there's no need to be shy. When I have mentioned peak oil to the managers for oil field services companies, they don't flinch. They may qualify the phrase with "affordable peak oil" or "practical peak oil", but our friends in Texas are the ones who have to find and produce oil on a daily basis, and they know it's getting harder and harder all the time. Peak oil is not a theoretical concept in Houston; it's a daily operating reality.""

''The US has experienced six recessions since 1972. At least five of these were associated with oil prices. In every case, when oil consumption in the US reached 4% percent of GDP, the US went into recession. Right now, 4% of GDP is $80 oil. So that's my current view: If the oil price exceeds $80, then expect the US to fall back into recession''.

But hell, what does this guy know? After all he only works for the 'company of record for our forecasts of offshore drilling and production'.

Down in Houston it seems the oil industry already takes peakoil as a given........

"Says everything about where you’re

"Says everything about where you're coming from. I know of no capitalist country that has embarked on war other than to defend its freedoms."

lol. Thats just too funny. You can only say that by ignoring the history of the last 250 years. Does the word COLONIALISM mean anything to you? Both you and I are the beneficiaries of a period where a capitalist country (Great Britain) embarked on a series of wars (Maori Land Wars) to steal others lands and resources. (Maori).

Perhaps this quote by the most decorated officers of the United States Marines at the time could prove to be a useful antidote for your delusions.

"I spent thirty- three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle- man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism."

http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/624.html

"Some guys tried to persuade me years ago that European engineers had developed a method to make a nuclear reactor small enough and safe enough to power individual cars."

lol. Ford Motor Company had developed a automobile concept that was to be powered by a fission turbine within a decade of building the bomb, but like the U.S. DoE funded nuclear powered plane had failed to take into account the sheer weight necessited by the lead shield need to prevent drivers and passengers from dying in excruciating pain from radiation poisoning.

The Nucleon's silent, sleek, and efficient design was poised to secure its place in the American lifestyle of the future. It seemed inevitable that the internal combustion engine would fade into obscurity, becoming a quaint relic of a pre-atomic past. But the Nucleon's design hinged on the assumption that smaller nuclear reactors would soon be developed, as well as lighter shielding materials. When those innovations failed to appear, the project was scrapped due to conspicuous impracticality; the bulky apparatus and heavy lead shielding didn't allow for a safe and efficient car-sized package. Moreover, as the general public became increasingly aware of the dangers of atomic energy and the problem of nuclear waste, the thought of radioactive atomobiles zipping around town lost much of its appeal. Atoms had broken their promise; the honeymoon was over.
http://www.damninteresting.com/the-atomic-automobile

Hard facts, not the touchy feelys.

Um how about detailed analysis and projections from the vast majority of the world's experts on the issue including the International Energy Agency, (a branch of the OECD).

Interesting piece on Xtra biz

Interesting piece on Xtra biz section this evening saying Oakridge resort in Wanaka, financed by SCF, is now in receivership.

Quite so Jamesy - I

Quite so Jamesy - I thought Mark's comment was so hilariously one eyed it wasn't worthy of comment. However in the interests of illumination here are a selection of other wars we might consider (with casualty figures in brackets). In each case I rather hope that I dont have to identify which of the protagonists is a capitalist society which of course was only fighting to protect its freedoms..........

1886-1908: Belgium-Congo Free State (8 million)
1899-02: British-Boer war (100,000)
1899-02: Philippines vs USA (20,000)
1900-01: Boxer rebels against Russia, Britain, France, Japan, USA against rebels (35,000)
1904: Germany vs Namibia (65,000)
1946-54: France-Vietnam war (600,000)
1954-62: French-Algerian war (368,000)
1964-73: USA-Vietnam war (3 million)

Farmer Will, Andrewj: <blockquote> So

Farmer Will, Andrewj:

So Peter would you have full confidence in chucking a heap of stock in one of their sales? The accounting term brought to mind suddenly makes me nervous.

I would be nervous too. Andrewj: technically insolvent rings a bell.

Go back to PGG Wrightson's accounts and look at their major assets:

Finance receivables: $408,213,000
Intangible assets: $340,132,000

How confident should you be that investors are going to offer $100-200 million of capital to pay off existing debt in preference to buying the tangible assets debt free?

What comes next? Alison Paterson

What comes next?

Alison Paterson Warren Larsen
Chairman Deputy Chairman
31 July 2006

Hon. Jim Sutton CNZM Warren Larsen CNZM
Chairman Deputy Chairman
27 August 2007

Jim Sutton M arise James
Chairman Chairman of Audit and Due Diligence Committee
1 September 2008

C&P from http://www.landcorp.co.nz/business/annualreports.aspx

LANDCORP 2009?

Remind me what an intangible

Remind me what an intangible asset is?

Jamesey, yes, perfectly true what

Jamesey, yes, perfectly true what you say about colonialism. But:

That was 250 years ago, as you say. That was a less enlightened time, obviously, thankfully, humanity has progressed, and that progress has always been quicker, the closer the society is toward free societies, and freer markets.

It was for King and Country. Another anachronism we have progressed beyond, and note that such imperialism is anathema to Libertarianism, founded on the non-initiation of force, and a repugnance for all forms of tribalism and collectivism, including patriotism for the sake of the 'tribe'. The only thing a Libertarian society has an allegiance to, is the philosophy of individual freedom (which cannot exist without the non initiation of force principle).

Re the marines, yes, but you're talking about crony capitalism, not laissez faire; again, this is precisely the problem.

So, none of that changes any argument I have made. Laissz faire capitalism is the only system that is founded on, and protects, the freedom of the individual; to the extent our capitalist systems are removed from laissez faire, and toward central control of the State, they move toward coercion, as we have in our modern democracies, all of which are founded in the final instance on State coercion of the individual, and the sacrifice of the individual's freedom on the bloodied altar of the common good. That's not a debating point, it is the truth.

More importantly, for all of you arguing against laissez faire, what, exactly are you recommending in place of it? What are the philosophic implications, vis a vis the freedom of the individual to lead their own life, unfettered by the petty rule of bureaucrats, of your recommended systems?

If you are recommending in any form a command economy, given the weight of the history against you- where central planning has been disastrous - what are you citing as concrete evidence that central planners can make a better job of price and resource allocation than the market can? And how do you weigh the trade off such central planning with the loss of an individual's freedom from the State?

Ruru Found it <blockquote> Wanaka

Ruru
Found it

Wanaka resort financed by SCF in receivership
Tuesday September 15, 06:56 PM

Companies associated with Oakridge Resort in Wanaka are now being managed by a receiver.

The financier is South Canterbury Finance.

The Southland Times reported today that the companies placed in receivership are Nord Ltd, Oakridge Resort Ltd, Oakridge Resort Holding Ltd, Oakridge Land Holdings Ltd, Oakridge Pool and Spa Resort Ltd and Northern Link Developments Ltd.

The receiver is Gordon Hansen of PKF Goldsmith Fox.

South Canterbury Finance last month reported a $69 million loss, its first bottom-line loss since 1934.

In July, the Timaru-based finance company said there would be $58m of provisions for bad debts in the year to June 30.

Slowly coming apart the SFC second mortgages on dairy farms must be worthless and less.

http://www.oakridge.co.nz/pages/about.html

Is your mortgage/insurance broker required

Is your mortgage/insurance broker required to disclose they are currently facing charges in relation to a multi-million dollar fraud...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1059...

Sure I believe innocent until proven guilty, but when the SFO is opposed to continued name suppression...

Ruru and AndrewJ: I suspect

Ruru and AndrewJ: I suspect that is a very significant article. I assume that particular financing has been included in their provision for bad debts, per their published $69 million loss. The next year for SCF will be crucial, though I think they have a further problem with the reduction of the deposit guarantee scheme down to $250,000, when it rolls over next October.

I have no money to lose either way, but personally, I hope they make it. It will be much harder for the South Canterbury economy if they don't, and I have respect for men like Alan Hubbard who have put their money where their mouth is, and for many decades, have prudently grown the wealth of themselves and their shareholders, while providing what has been a very good service.

PeterR/AndrewJ, " technically insolvent" -

PeterR/AndrewJ,

" technically insolvent" - I would use the term "illquid", current assets are a subset of total assets... When Total Liabilities exceed Total Assets, they would be insolvent.

Options for them are:-
a) Sell some Non current Assets...to convert them to current [sell owned vehicles/buildings and lease back... that kind a thing].
b) Issue new Equity
c) borrow more Money...

But hey, none of these options scream Profitable Growing Business.

Farmer will: <blockquote> Intangible assets

Farmer will:

Intangible assets are defined as identifiable non-monetary assets that cannot be seen, touched or physically measured ...

As a distinct type of intangible asset, goodwill typically comes into play only in an acquisition, and represents the amount of money a company has paid or would pay over book value to acquire another company.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intangible_asset

In NZ at least we include goodwill as an intangible asset.

@Mark Hubbard and AndrewJ: I

@Mark Hubbard and AndrewJ: I too note the Oakridge story as an observer. Having quite a few elderly rellies down here who have trusted the likes of the PGGW firms and SCF with their retirement cash, I am keeping watch on these evolving stories. Add in Silver Fern Farms, the big dairy players and their debts mentioned above, then the emerging web of cross-ownerships, and my old hack's nose begins to twitch. I hope all is well because these companies were seen as old-school in their operations by the elderly investors who are relying on them.

SCF and Alan Hubbard sounded

SCF and Alan Hubbard sounded old school and conservative up until a few years ago. Isn't it another case of a young and ambitious CEO coming in and pushing things too far. Perhaps Alan Hubbard was persuaded he was being too conservative in the "new economy" and that a complicated, related party structure was good business. Who in the finance sector got rewarded and promoted for being conservative and prudent in last 5 years?

@andy hamilton: In terms of

@andy hamilton:

In terms of oil as a % of GDP causing a recession, Professor Kenneth S. Deffeyes

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/

Came up with a similar comment, his lecture is on youtube...

if you search for "Ken Deffeyes" its the first piece,

Peak Oil - GDP vs Oil - Dr. Ken Deffeyes

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Ken+Deffeyes&search_type=&aq=f

@PeterR, "Nobel offers prizes in science, but not in economics." you are being unkind if 100% correct...there is an award of sorts that is pretty much similar in what it tries to achieve, ie ack someone or someones who have reached the highest levels in their speciality and have contributed meaningfully to society with their work...Personally, I can live with it being the same thing....the men and women who got the "award" are the very best and deserve that distinction.

steven: The award is financed

steven:

The award is financed by a bank. My understanding is that there is considerable contention around the awards and processes in allocating them.

@mark: "No, what you ‘and

@mark: "No, what you "˜and your ilk' are advocating is slavery now, and well done, basically we have it." No I am not....what I am saying is accepting that there is some compromise on freedom in exchange for something else....eg security of food, energy, well being is acceptable....only a fanatic can take "freedom" to such a degree that everything else is of no merit. As someone said there is no humanity in extremism...

@julian: ".....Fed to operate as a protected monopoly so to directly blame the private sector or private banks for this mess is not necessarily fair." Actually yes I believe it is pretty fair, ie blaming the excesses of the Private sector. However, yes, the Fed pretty much sets the overall framework of how the economy and financial system will work....Greenspan definitely has a lot to answer for he sent interest rates to low for too long, failed to utilise the regulations he had (I use "he" in the broadest terms, this includes Govn regulators) to check up on and control excesses. CDSs should never have been allowed....or certainly not at their AAA credit ratings....given out at a nod and a wink.

@Peter C: "Just for the record, Libertarians are not anarchists." if you are implying me, no that is correct, strictky speeaking I dont believe they are...and never have...however I see Libertarians as close to anarchists, a group of people who have taken anarchy and added to it just enough of socialism to suit their wants.

"unfettered capitalism" Bernard?

I'd be very keen to know? Certainly not in my lifetime, or yours.

In-correct, we just had a great example of our current recession of as close as many ppl will want to get to "unfettered capitalism" ever....but round 2 is coming.....

@jamman: "the technology is there already to produce more energy than the earth will need for the next 100,000 years"¦" do tell....no such thing....

@Jamesey "Um how about detailed analysis and projections from the vast majority of the world's experts on the issue including the International Energy Agency, (a branch of the OECD)."

I dont think this is the right place for that...takes too much space, but three excellent sites that discuss just about everything on energy are,

http://www.energybulletin.net/
http://www.peakoil.com/
http://www.theoildrum.com/

There is enough info and links off those three sites to keep you reading for 2~3 years. That's about how long I have been reading up on it...

regards

Steven, I'll admit that demand

Steven,
I'll admit that demand is a real problem, but really ineffiency is very high too.
There are such vast amounts of untapped resources, renewable and unrenewable.
These may not be effecient to use at this moment, but a lot of that has to do with regulatory red-tape.
To mention the ones I know of... and I am rather poorly informed...

Renewable... Solar, wind, tidal, air temperature (this is very real if you want to talk about global warming!), geothermal... Can someone who know a bit more add some please?
Waste byproducts (methane etc)

Unrenewable... Coal, nuclear (fusion and fission), oil (lots more there, just can't extract it fast enough, so it sounds), gas. Someone help me out here...any more?

Sustainablility is an issue... the human desire for MORE is a real concern, our percentage of energy consumption per capita is no doubt 10+ times higher than what is was 20years ago... and is our standard of living any better for it?

Mark – you constantly blame

Mark "“ you constantly blame government intervention for our demise but whom do you think government represents?

Isn't it the fact that government aren't working in the public interest the problem - and not government itself?

And wouldn't reducing government merely be officially handing over control to these corporate interests currently pulling the strings?

Wealth is being consolidated through the help of government policy but it isn't being consolidated by the state.

Here is something you should consider: http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/09/14/resentment/index.html

It will be interesting to hear your view on the piece.

South Canterbury just made this

South Canterbury just made this announcement to the NZX

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX/SCF010/announcements/2869574/SCF-Market-...

Reading between the lines they are under pressure trying to stop those US investors dumping (as they are now entitled to do)

@andy hamilton: So SCF has

@andy hamilton: So SCF has ring-fenced funds gone in since August 20? Is this standard practice? Do we know who the US investors are?

Chairman. I don't have time

Chairman.

I don't have time to read your linked article, not today, anyway. But referencing your other questions (over a cup of morning tea):

Mark "“ you constantly blame government intervention for our demise but whom do you think government represents?

It certainly doesn't represent me. I have no agreement with democracy, Chairman: as I've said before, it's a tyranny of the majority. For example, in a population of five people, if a democratic election is held, and four out of five people elect to appropriate the earnings of the fifth for them to live off, because, say, the fifth person just happens to look rich, is a different colour, wears orange ties, whatever, then you have a democratic, majority decision sanctioning common theft. That is immoral.

I want a Libertarian minarchy where the major role of a small state is to, by constitution, protect my individual rights and freedoms, and stop anyone, or group, initiating force on me, including that biggest abuser of personal freedoms, governments.

Isn't it the fact that government aren't working in the public interest the problem - and not government itself?

You've answered your own question.

And wouldn't reducing government merely be officially handing over control to these corporate interests currently pulling the strings?

I would rather be transacting on a voluntary basis with a private company, where both I and the company can take value away from that transaction, than forcibly with the State that always works via coercion, and by extortion. That is the nub of all the issues with the Big State, in effect.

Given the weight of history, why would you trust a government running your life for you? Why should you? And if you want to opt out of such a coercive system, but are not allowed to, then what does that say about the type of society you live in?

Mark et al Apologies for

Mark et al

Apologies for my delay in responding. Had to get out today's Top 10 at 10.

Hard not to respond too when accused of being a 'state worshipper' . Yikes. Not me.

But....I have no illusions about the fairness and success of utterly unregulated markets with no government involvement. Markets are virtually never free and transparent. Ever tried comparing quotes in insurance? Tried unravelling what a Telco is actually charging for?

The tendency towards mega-corporates and the evolution of the pension fund as shareholder culture means these corporates will naturally try to be bigger and generate more income for their managers. Markets are almost always not free. Participants are not rational. They are often greedy bullies with HR and corporate social responsibility departments.

Standard Oil, Microsoft, Google....Need I say more. Some industries lend themselves to becoming monopolies, while others are just made that way by brute force. Most pretend to be nice to staff, customers, suppliers and society. Some genuinely try not to evil. Most eventually end up that way.

I am sympathetic to the idea of letting banks go bust and the monstrous moral hazard we have now. But those banks did the bad things and grew too big to fail even though they knew there was at least a chance they would be allowed to fail. Ask Bear Stearns and Lehmans Bros about how they feel?

My point is that even with all the shareholders checks and balances and with the threat of failure they still did mad things. That's because they were greedy and stupid and reckless. It's human nature. It's why we also have laws against murder, theft and rape.

I'm afraid completely unfettered (as opposed to truly free) markets create monstrous monopolies, greedy corporate managers, short termist shareholders and massive growth in inequality.

Left unfettered, societies with these companies would eventually dissolve into revolution, war and poverty, as much as we might wish otherwise. On that happy note...

cheers
Bernard

Bernard, Completely agree. The libertarian

Bernard,

Completely agree. The libertarian arguments have always to my mind been a bit confusing. As you imply, freedom and "unfettered" environmnets are completely different things. How free is a kid in the play ground when there are no rules but the bully is bashing him, the myth of the noble savage is exactly that, a myth. There will ALWAYS be rules and sanctions to back up those rules in ANY society. Maybe the general thrust of libertarianism is to put less of the rules in the hand of the state and more into self regulated market bodies etc. But surely the tendency will be for business interest to prefer themselves over all else, and as you point out, even companies can have conflicted interest between shareholders and greedy bonus hungry CEOs. People can be bullied, duped, misled, bribed etc etc and there are plenty out there willing to do anything in their own personal self interest. So YES, we do need central govt to provide SOME regulation - how much is the big question. But certainly more than we have had over the last 10 years would be a good start.

In essence, maybe the main role of central govt should be to help align personal and collective self interest. Clearly our exsiting laws and policies favouring housing investment to the detriment of our economy and future generations is a prime example of govt neglect.

<b>Bernard</b>, thanks for answering, though

Bernard, thanks for answering, though that's a depressing view you hold, and one I don't agree with. We've never had a laissez faire economy to test your 'big evil monopoly' theory - can you cite me such examples? - whereas our mixed economies do definitely produce such monsters, most often via monopoly rent seeking in collusion with the State.

But, it's opportune that the Austrian Economists blog has a pertinent post today, and, given your apparent preference for a mixed economy (if not straight State Worshipping :) ), a further set of questions you would have to answer.

Quote:

'But everybody today calls for the "mixed economy," the so-called third system that draws the best institutional features of capitalism and socialism. They are the ones, then, stuck with the theoretical burden of demonstrating that we do not live within a fundamentally self-organizing system and that legislation geared toward particular ends doesn't unleash systemic unintended consequences and a destruction of freedom. '

Per, discussion of Hayek's Law, Legislation & Liberty .

http://austrianeconomists.typepad.com/weblog/2009/09/its-all-about-spont...

<i>But certainly more [regulation] than

But certainly more [regulation] than we have had over the last 10 years would be a good start.

Have you built a house in the last ten years Jimmy? Or even, as in our case, tried to paint one the colour you want?

Mark, I'm not saying ALL

Mark,

I'm not saying ALL areas need regulation. But I can think of a few:

- regulation of debenture offers, disclosure requirements etc
- regulation of REAs (some progress has been made here)
- regulation of foreigners owning NZ land
- regulation of corporate debt levels

Yes, but giving governments the

Yes, but giving governments the moral authority to regulate in the areas you suggest - and that last one especially is shocking, by the way, actually falling under a dictionary definition for Fascism - gives it [government] the moral authority to legislate, apparently, the colour I can paint my house, whether a parent can smack their child, how much I pay for my beer, my petrol, and on and on and on.

That doesn't frighten you just a little?

Mark, There is regulation regardless,

Mark,

There is regulation regardless, I think people just like some regulation and dont like others. eg, is it fascist for a govt to legislate that we cant kill our children??

And no, it does not overly frighten me. What would frighten me is if they began to legislate away our ability to vote them out. That is the real hallmark of fascism. If we dont like their regulations, we can vote them out.

So to summarise: In the

So to summarise:

In the land of the objectivists the one-Ayn'd Rand is king.

(and everyone else is a leftist tree-hugger and/or a neo-fascist).

<i>What would frighten me is

What would frighten me is if they began to legislate away our ability to vote them out.

Well, we have no written constitution: what's actually to stop them? (Answer, seriously: nothing, not legally anyway).

The point is, Andy, there

The point is, Andy, there would be no kings. You can do whatever you want, so long as you don't initiate force on another (which includes fraud). That's why it is a state of freedom.

What is so scary about that? (I can certainly tell you what's scary about the reverse).

Mark, why does regulation of

Mark, why does regulation of corporate debt levels scare you so?

Seems reasonably logical to most I think... sure shouldn't be over regulated but if they are expected to stay within the confines of extreme common sense and a little bit of leeway...
Like perhaps not borrow any more than 10 times the asset value???

Civil liberties are great until someone else exercises their own, next door... " But i like my parties loud and long", "I like to use my chainsaw at 2am", "My manufacture of chlorine gas is strictly for personal use!"

Your faith in human nature seems poorly founded. Hand over some FACTS eh!

The problem with democracy is that the govt has the unenviable job of trying to keep most of the people happy all the time, popularity is more important than to their survival than long term sustainability (not a bad word, just badly used). Theoretically, if you had good men and women in govt they would make less promises and do what is needed NOT what is wanted. This is the weakness of democracy, the iron mingled with clay.

<i>why does regulation of corporate

why does regulation of corporate debt levels scare you so? ... let's legislate common sense ...

You can't seriously be asking that?

The State has no role in between a private corporation and its financiers. If they do then why not the State decide:

1) What remuneration a company can pay its officers (as we now have in the States, this should have all Americans very, very worried)?

2) What products/services it can make or offer.

3) What brand of car they can have in their fleet - hey this is good, they could stipulate NZ made only.

...

That is, what you are actually saying is, lets nationalise every aspect of our lives, and have no concept of private (and thus personal freedom). You do see this?

This thread is getting downright scary.

Mark, please don't put words

Mark, please don't put words in my mouth...

These additional items may seem logical progression to you, but I don't agree.

I suggested that is could be neccesary to put limitations on excessively bad financial practive, not legislating common sense (which obviously isn't very common!)

The cafars and recession are

The cafars and recession are classic examples as to why the free market cant work on its own...and nore does full on regulation Gov control...extemist philosophies , be it Finance, politics, religion just dont work, but a balance between them does...
If the Cafars where required to have a regulated amount of equity they would not have borrowed so much,
If the bank where required to only loan within regulated limits, we would not have the cafars, the property boom/crash/ mortgagee sales and turmoil of the last few yrs.

Regulations are there to keep stability and keep business within good fundamental practises, stop people getting ripped of by the greedy, and stop the collateral damage greedy when the crap eventually hits the fan.

To think regulation will solve the problem for the future...forget it...no way.
Every couple generations politicians, banks forget the past, as the new whizz kids come out of Uni with their new fan dangled theories, scrap everything and screw the world up ..again... like borrow and dont own anything, get rich on capital gains rather on an honest living of the return on assets.
Every 70 odd yrs theres a big crisis, about every 40yrs a smaller crisis and in between these another crisis, and between these normal cyclic ups and downs in the market.

Regulation is not about restricting the free market capitalist system, it is a bout maintaining sensible practises within that system

Bernard said... <i>Standard Oil, Microsoft,

Bernard said...
Standard Oil, Microsoft, Google"¦.

Do/Did these companies ever violated anyone's rights (via force)?

Bernard said...
Need I say more. Some industries lend themselves to becoming monopolies, while others are just made that way by brute force.

Monopolies via the approval of the state is not earned, while monopolies via brute market force is earned. Do you see the difference? Does the owner of "interest.co.nz" want to become monopoly via brute market force ? I bet he does. Is it a good thing? Why not. Here is a well reasoned argument for you to read:

Drop the Antitrust Case Against Microsoft

Bernard said...
Most pretend to be nice to staff, customers, suppliers and society. Some genuinely try not to evil. Most eventually end up that way.

Irrelevant. No force being used. If an employer of Microsoft, doesn't feel that he/she is being treated nicely, then there is an option. Just find another employer who treats its staff nicely. Free to leave and free to come. No force being used or a gun being held to one's head.

Bernard said...
I am sympathetic to the idea of letting banks go bust and the monstrous moral hazard we have now. But those banks did the bad things and grew too big to fail even though they knew there was at least a chance they would be allowed to fail. Ask Bear Stearns and Lehmans Bros about how they feel?

The bank (privately owned) never came to take your money Bernard (via force). You went to them voluntarily.

Bernard said...
My point is that even with all the shareholders checks and balances and with the threat of failure they still did mad things. That's because they were greedy and stupid and reckless. It's human nature.

Rights have not being violated here.

Bernard said...
It's why we also have laws against murder, theft and rape.

Irrelevant. This is the legitimate role of the government, since being murdered by someone is violating the rights of the murdered person.

Bernard said...
I'm afraid completely unfettered (as opposed to truly free) markets create monstrous monopolies, greedy corporate managers, short termist shareholders and massive growth in inequality.

Irrelevant. You have to make profits. The bigger the better. When the profits get bigger and bigger, anti-free market just crybaby, oh, no, you exploit us. But the question here, is if anyone thinks this way, then don't use the services or buy the products of that company. Simple. If I think that Telecom is ripping me off, then I go somewhere else or at best just don't use telephone or mobile communication at all. About half of the population of Tonga don't have any form of electronic communication at all. They don't moan about it, since the local Telecom there exist for the purpose of making profits. If the locals can't afford to subscribe or buy those services, tough luck, but the local Telecom is not there to be Santa Claus to the locals who can't afford those services. The question is, do those locals have a God given right to be provided with such services if no private enterprise is willing to set up a business there? Nope. There is no such thing. The locals are in fact exposed themselves to the pricing of the local Telco company there if they voluntarily want to buy those services, if they can afford. If they can't, then the other option (again no force being used) is to completely live without a phone. Is that simple enough Bernard? I hope so.

Bernard said...
Left unfettered, societies with these companies would eventually dissolve into revolution, war and poverty, as much as we might wish otherwise. On that happy note"¦

Can you give an Example? How about if I suggest. Somalia is a poor country and so all of the Pacific Island countries, therefore, the fact that they're poor must have been the result of big monopolies that were left unchecked, correct?

It depends on what you

It depends on what you call 'force' and 'rights' Falafulu Fisi: ( Re Standard Oil)
"Rockefeller had merely to show them his books so they could see what they were up against,............ If they refused his offer, he told them he would run them into bankruptcy, then cheaply buy up their assets at auction. Standard Oil gradually gained almost complete control of oil refining and marketing in the United States through "horizontal integration".

"Laissz faire capitalism is the

"Laissz faire capitalism is the only system that is founded on, and protects, the freedom of the individual; to the extent our capitalist systems are removed from laissez faire, and toward central control of the State, they move toward coercion, as we have in our modern democracies, all of which are founded in the final instance on State coercion of the individual, and the sacrifice of the individual's freedom on the bloodied altar of the common good. That's not a debating point, it is the truth."

But it wasn't. It was founded on the expropriation of the economic base of the vast majority of the European population, most particularly with the Enclosure of the village commons in England during the Tudor period.

I think the the primary error that libertarians as opposed to anarchists like myself make is that you equate an economic system that has a basis in accumulation (capitalism) with one in exchange (market economy). One is based on the historic criminal theft of the economic base of the vast majority of the world's population and promotes inequality and poverty and extreme societal stresses throughout the majority of the world's population whilst the other is based on and promotes the free and unfettered exchange of goods and services that one desires with the goal of ensuring that both parties benefit from the exchange.

When the capitalist economy has its basis in the expropriation of the peasant's land who were then forced to wander the land as vagrants until forced upon the "tender mercies" of the State controlled by the very same people who had committed the crime against them and then used the newly constituted "property" as security to finance capital improvements on their lands and then eventually the construction of the "dark satanic mills" of the Industrial Revolution, you can hardly expect such a system to guarantee freedom and liberty to anyone let alone the newly constituted working class.

It was the first avowed anarchist Pierre Joseph Proudhon who developed the first social contract that convincingly refutes both Thomas Hobbes and Rousseau's conceptions that explicitly protects the notion of individual sovereignty with its basis in the activity of exchange and commerce.

What really is the Social Contract? An agreement of the citizen with the government? No, that would mean but the continuation of [Rousseau's] idea. The social contract is an agreement of man with man; an agreement from which must result what we call society. In this, the notion of commutative justice[5], first brought forward by the primitive fact of exchange, "¦is substituted for that of distributive justice "¦ Translating these words, contract, commutative justice, which are the language of the law, into the language of business, and you have commerce, that is to say, in its highest significance, the act by which man and man declare themselves essentially producers, and abdicate all pretension to govern each other.

Mark “You’ve answered your own

Mark
"You've answered your own question."

But you seemly didn't. So can we take it that you agree?

However, you've made it clear you don't believe in democracy.

Nevertheless, where you lost me is your ideology that coercion seems to all of a sudden disappear in a totally free market. (Keeping in mind, what you blame on the state is actually initiated by the corporate interests pulling the strings).

While it's true the markets are not currently free, they have been significantly deregulated. This in itself gives us a clear indication of where markets would be if all regulation were removed.

Excessive greed needs to be kept in check, for if it doesn't, it soon becomes dominating.

The theory you strongly advocate has no safeguard against excessive greed therefore is doomed to fail.

Moreover, if we were to remove all regulation and government intervention tomorrow, how would this create the needed level playing field for this totally free market to get off the ground? (Keeping in mind the corporate interests currently pulling the strings have already consolidated a large majority of the worlds wealth and dominate the markets). Removing regulation would soon be the end for the little guy.

Anyway, thanks for replying. Pity you didn't have time to look at the link provided, it's well worth a read. Perhaps you can comment after finding the time.

By the way, don't forget to checkout Naomi Klein's book (The Shock Doctrine) it will give you a whole new perspective on your ideology.

Just a follow up to

Just a follow up to an earlier post of mine with a link to the following blog post:

Econophysics - a model that explains the crash

Research in this area is still in its infancy, so it doesn't mean that it will guarantee to work all the time.

So, what's this has anything to do with (government) central control ? Well, the econophysics model involved in the quoted link is in fact work best when there is no central control at all (not many rules embedded into the model), like a colony of ants, where no one is a supervisory boss (ie, boss of everyone). Each is a boss of its own. Everything is dynamic and self-0rganised (society of course) that leads to emergent behavior, that regulates itself from being unstable. When the self-emergent dynamic is restricted/constrained it leads to crash or in other words, the system become unstable. If the market is left alone, then the forces of emergent & self-organized dynamics will regulate itself (self-corrected). This doesn't mean that the system is stable forever, but occasionally there will be blips.

Human brain doesn't have a central control region and still we (as humans) manage not to suffer self-crash (going mental except a few members of the society) and that's the beauty of emergent & self-organized dynamics. Left alone and it will function perfectly.

Fala, "Human brain doesn’t have

Fala,

"Human brain doesn't have a central control region and still we (as humans) manage not to suffer self-crash (going mental except a few members of the society) "

Methinks that a goodly portion of us are actually very delusional... turns out those holding the reins have been...

Ant and other natural colonies work on the principle of doing what is best for the community at large... Humans don't! (obviously).

In fact GB colonisation under kings and queens was more like ants than you might like to think... there was (is?) loyalty to king and country (queen).

Can't run a society without loyalty... independance is great until a combined effort is needed!

Here's what happens in the

Here's what happens in the absence of an equitable legal system and a welfare backstop.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/desperate-farmers-sell-wives-daughters-20090...
This type of human (or should I say sub-human) behaviour is not limited to India and it wasn't that long ago that NZ men could treat their wives and children as chattels. Human greed, lust, envy and all the other deadly sins know no bounds in a society void of any regulation.

The main problem with laissez faire capitalism is it reduces all human interaction to an economic context and is unable to put a price on human relationships and social goods like the environment or unpaid work.

Taupo Times public notices september

Taupo Times public notices september 15th.
On 18th Aug 2009 an application for putting Plateau Farms Limited into liquidation was filed in the high court Rotorua. Plaintiff Dairy Concepts Ltd

<b>Falafulu,</b> in line with your

Falafulu, in line with your self-organising society post, you'll find my Austrian Blogs link above interesting, vis a vis Hayek's work on the self organising system - my last reply to Bernard before I got suffocated under the weight of all the Statists in here.

Also, my favourite quote for this year so far, lifted shamelessly off Paul Walkers excellent Anti-Dismal blog:

At the heart of economics is a scientific mystery: How is it that the pricing system accomplishes the world's work without anyone being in charge? Like language, on one invented it. None of us could have invented it, and its operation depends in no way on anyone's comprehension or understanding of it. Somehow, it is a product of culture; yet in important ways, the pricing system is what makes culture possible. Smash it in the command economy and it rises as a Phoenix with a thousand heads, as the command system becomes shot through with bribery, favors, barter and underground exchange. Indeed, these latter elements may prevent the command system from collapsing. No law and no police force can stop it, for the police may become as large a part of the problem as of the solution. The pricing system--How is order produced from freedom of choice?--is a scientific mystery as deep, fundamental, and inspiring as that of the expanding universe or the forces that bind matter. For to understand it is to understand something about how the human species got from hunting-gathering through the agricultural and industrial revolutions to a state of affluence that allows us to ask questions about the expanding universe, the weak and strong forces that bind particles and the nature of the pricing system, itself.

Vernon L. Smith, "Microeconomic Systems as an Experimental Science," American Economic Review, Dec. 1982

Steps

I would love to answer your post properly, but this takes up too much of my time. But to paraphrase, the Crafars are not an example of how capitalism doesn't work. It is the example of capitalism working. How it corrects a bubble. And if the State gets involved anywhere in that process, then it just extends the bad effects of the bubble's burst, and makes the peaks and troughs of the economic cycle much deeper.

And Regulations are there to keep stability and keep business within good fundamental practises ...

Remember our central bank system, (that is State), was supposed to be about price stability! Wow, that really worked, didn't it. Don't think so.

And regarding 'fundamental practises' just as with the Crafars, the market penalises quickly imprudent behaviour, however, States using taxpayer money to bailout crony corporates rewards imprudent behaviour. The regulatory framework is played by its makers according to the whim of the day, and is a drag, in every sense, on productivity, and, of course, freedom.

Jamesey

Without invocation of Medieval times, please explain the difference between capitalism and market economy, as you are using the term (as an anarchist). Are you implying an anarchist 'market economy' has no profit component? Thus we all know each others costs of production? Plus, if so, how would you fund future growth, innovation and technological advance?

... oh, and <b>Jamman</b> I

... oh, and Jamman

I wasn't putting words into your mouth. I was simply taking your suggested regulation to the logical end point politicians have already taken it.

I'll have to think about

I'll have to think about that bit ,Mark!
"...language, on (sic.) one invented it. ...... and its operation depends in no way on anyone's comprehension or understanding of it."

As outlined above the main

As outlined above the main focus of govt regulation should be to align personal and collective self interest eg

a law against property theft - its beneficial for the the individual to follow it lest they end up in jail. Its beneficial for the wider community who can be relatively free from theft.

the insidious thing about corruption, is that you reach a point where it is better for the individual to line their own pockets because there is little or no chance of being held to account. You can see this in most African govts - some idealistic politicians exist, but civilisation needs more than this to prosper. It needs checks and balances to provide some alignment of personal and collective behviour cause many people care only for themselves.

In a free market, to a large degree individual self interest does benefit the collective (bright new ideas give us great technology, comfort and a profit to the inventor - few people would want to stop this happy relationship). It is a COMPLETE MYTH however to think this will always be the case and that the free market will always correct itself in the end to benefit the collective. Monopolies are a clear example of this. A small player can easily be squashed via uncompetitive practises and we all lose. ditto tax loopholes and corporate greed from CEOs who incur unhealthy debt levels to inflate short term profits. Ditto unhealty collusion between REAs, insurance companies etc to keep fees high. We need to be conscious that the end goal for our society should be what benefits the collective - this will always require a trade off between "freedom to do anything" and laws designed to temper unhealthy practises.

Mark, "the logical end point

Mark,

"the logical end point politicians have already taken it"...

Squeeze me if I'm wrong... but I haven't yet heard of the NZ govt telling any private enterprise that they must drive Fords/Toyota or whatever...
or tell them what products they can sell...

The US may have added some regulation to this, but not to the extent you would like to imply...

Stevenk said... <I>This type of

Stevenk said...
This type of human (or should I say sub-human) behaviour is not limited to India and it wasn't that long ago that NZ men could treat their wives and children as chattels.

Irrelevant. That's not what Mark, Cresswell and Julain are arguing here. The libz are supportive of law that protects or prevents rights violation. Treatingr wives and children as chattels is rights violation. Don't you see that? It bears no resemblance to Telecom overcharging its customers or banks refusing a loan to someone which they are not the same thing. In fact Telecom or the bank doesn't violate anyone's right one single iota if they overcharge or refuse a loan. It's their property and they can do what they like and the government has no right to dictate to those private enterprise whatsoever. But I hear you and Bernard say, that you have a right to bank with someone . Nope. Just put your savings under your mattress. See, the problem starts when you voluntarily take your money to the bank in the first place and then demand lawmakers to do something about certain operations that your bank does that you're not happy with. As my example above. Half of the population of Tonga don't have a bank account. Whatever money they earn weekly, they put them under their mats for their weekly use. Don't use a bank if you won't like the way they run their OWN business. The bank is a private property of the rightful owners (shareholders, etc,...) and not the state. Very easy concept to grasp really.

The problem with you is that you make your life so dependent on someone else's products (labor of their own hands) that you frequently demand lawmakers to muzzle those producers via legislations. How about this, if you think that producers are evil of this world, then make yourself free of those products. Don't buy/use Microsoft products. Don't buy a computer since they contain Intel chip in there (an evil monopoly/company). Don't use a cell phone or a telephone, since Telecom is exploiting you. See, the poor lot in the Pacific Islands don't make themselves hostage to those products (product of someone else's labor). So, free yourself from buying these products/services and you won't need a government to dictate to private businesses, exactly as how people live in my village (no bank account, no phone, no internet, etc,...) and hey, they still breath and at the same time, they're not party to coercing someone else's property via lobbying politicians.

falafulu "In fact Telecom or

falafulu

"In fact Telecom or the bank doesn't violate anyone's right one single iota if they overcharge or refuse a loan. It's their property and they can do what they like and the government has no right to dictate to those private enterprise whatsoever."

Rubbish. Telecom's property rights only exist because the state recognises property ownership and will enforce this via police, courts etc if required. Property rights exist because for the most part self interested exercise of right benefits the collective. This is not always the case however. If Telecom overcharges for technology that is further and further behind industry standards then we all start to lose and the economy suffers. If things get bad enough then the govt who in theory represents the collective will of the people will need to act or lose power. In other words, NO PROPERTY RIGHTS ARE ABSOLUTE. ABUSE THEM TOO MUCH AND YOU WILL LOSE THEM. At the end of the day it basically boils down to power. we live in a democracy and fortunately there is power via the ballot box. Govt is mindful of this power and therefore exercises its power appropriately to stay in power. Whether Telecom likes this or not is irrellevant, exercise of power is the way ALL human govt works. The good thing about a democracy is it is less prone to abuse than most systems.

Jimmy said... <i>Whether Telecom likes

Jimmy said...
Whether Telecom likes this or not is irrellevant, exercise of power is the way ALL human govt works.

So, you do like what Mugabe is doing, don't you? What that thug is doing is exactly what you're supporting, ie, no respect for private properties.

Falafulu Fisi The point is

Falafulu Fisi

The point is life is not only about economic transactions. Laissez faire economic theory and libertarianism are utopian theories that would collapse in practice because of the flaws in human nature. So too any other "pure" ideology be it anarchy or communism. The individual must be protected from the state, but at the same time you need the state to provide individuals protection from one another. The idea that the greatest good is arrived at by all individuals acting in their own self interest is a load of crap. People do not have a common concept of what is best for themselves or the society they live in. Social and political interaction requires debate and compromise to arrive at a general consensus that most people can accept and live with, even if they disagree with aspects of it. That is why the vast majority of New Zealanders accept the welfare state even if they are annoyed by some of its inefficiencies and abuses. Its called being compassionate and civilised.

The most compassionless entity, stevek,

The most compassionless entity, stevek, is the State. And because the welfare state is a factory that makes the class it was supposed to be 'raising up', it is actively cruel, dooming generation after generation now, to poverty and violence. And enslaving us all to do so.

It's sick, and insane.

Falafulu, "What that thug is

Falafulu,

"What that thug is doing is exactly what you're supporting, ie, no respect for private properties."

Agree he is a thug. But
a) there is no democracy here and
b) he is not acting in the interests of the collective - he is acting in his and his cronies self interest.

So its a completely different scenario to the Telecom one you alluded to before.

Oh I can only imagine

Oh I can only imagine the ranting involved in 167 and counting rants! Goodluck waiding through the mess Bernard... US$1010/ouce... I can see my house from up here... crap its burning

Mark The state is not

Mark

The state is not compassionate because it is not a sentient being. The actions of the state are as harsh or compassionate as those who administer it, be it a democracy, theocracy, monarchy or dictatorship. This is where the foibles and inconsistency of human nature undo any political or economic theory.

Agreed there have been generations on welfare but they are the exception rather than the rule. There are always extremes at the margin. However for most welfare is an essential backstop in a civilised society "There by the grace of god go I"

I'm glad, stevek, that you

I'm glad, stevek, that you equate democracy with theocracy, monarchy, and dictatorship, in terms of compassion(less).

I don't want to live in any of these types of governance.

The irony is that when the state legislates compassion, it is reliant on coercion to enforce it, and the unintended consequences are always compassionless.

Regulation. I'm no National supporter,

Regulation.

I'm no National supporter, but sometimes out of the mouths of babes a little bit of sense:

Former Prime Minister Jenny Shipley is warning the government not to over regulate in response to the financial crisis.

She told delegates at the INFINZ Conference in Rotorua yesterday that traditionally regulatory response to issues like the crisis are counter-cyclical and go too far.

Changes made in response to events "often create more difficulty, not improvement" and "perverse outcomes".

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c3fb3014/former-pm-says-don-t-over-re...

The only thing she is wrong on is we don't need 'any' further regulation at all, we should be concentrating on the real issue, lack of a free market, and sound money system ....

I've an idea Mark... You

I've an idea Mark...

You are always telling us in the ideal society you don't have to shop anywhere, buy anything, support anyone else... etc, etc...

How about "if you don't like democracy, go somewhere else?"

Nobody MAKES you live in NZ!

Perhaps you are stuck for options? Try Pitcairn Is, history says theirs not too many laws their... or maybe set up your own and populate it...oh, sorry, forgot the smartie car...

Sheesh, over 170... Popular topic Bernard! Everyones bile file seems to be well opened!

Goodness, you have had an

Goodness, you have had an idea, and a more original idea then the handle you thought up for yourself, which remains a little esoteric. (The man who brings the jam home?)

But I go somewhere else?

Why? I don't want to trouble anyone, or initiate force, so why can't I just be left alone here? I'm quite willing to pay for the services I use, I'm just not liking having to pay for the meat factory that churns out violent youth and poverty, nor for the comforts of my jailers. I've merely suggested a better way, toward a free society. Progress. That's all I want; that, and not to be bothered: I certainly don't want to shift, I like the climate.

From what moral platform do you feel you are justified in asking me to leave?

Mark Hubbard Says: "Steps I

Mark Hubbard Says:
"Steps
I would love to answer your post properly, but this takes up too much of my time. But to paraphrase, the Crafars are not an example of how capitalism doesn't work. It is the example of capitalism working. How it corrects a bubble. And if the State gets involved anywhere in that process, then it just extends the bad effects of the bubble's burst, and makes the peaks and troughs of the economic cycle much deeper."

So capitalism works on the basis that it allows idiots and greed to happen, create havoc in the market place and rectifies regardless of collateral damage....thats a system that is unstable.

"And Regulations are there to keep stability and keep business within good fundamental practises "¦ "

"Remember our central bank system, (that is State), was supposed to be about price stability! Wow, that really worked, didn't it. Don't think so."

Yeah and back in the late 80s early 90s when the current philosophy was a free, Free market capitalist system, they took near all the tools to create stability off the RB...hence we have the current crisis basically caused by not requiring min deposits, ability to repay ...basic good practise regulations that had been around for many decades in 1 form or another...since the last depression...

"Every 70 odd yrs theres a big crisis, about every 40yrs a smaller crisis and in between these another crisis, and between these normal cyclic ups and downs in the market.

Regulation is not about restricting the free market capitalist system, it is a bout maintaining sensible practises within that system"

Mark - If the government

Mark - If the government fails (once again) to provide robust regulation to ensure investor protection, it will be an up hill struggle to divert investment capital.

On a side note: Bernard - The results in your latest opinion poll are rather interesting.

It's good to see the majority would prefer to see Bollard address the banks capital requirements.

<b>Steps</b>, if we had laissez

Steps, if we had laissez faire, and sound money, not fiat money, with the market delivering the lessons of failure, do you think a financier would have exposed themselves to the risk the Crafars became? With no budgets, and a wall calender for planning?

What caused the bubble in farm land prices?

I put it to you its the distortions of our mixed economy that allowed this.

But, on another tack, yes, failure in free markets is a correcting mechanism, and far more efficient that what we've seen with the bailouts.

And what you state above, was not the cause of the current crisis. But I'm not going through all that again. Google the Mises Bailout Reader.

Jamman: as in toes?

Chairman, interesting interpretation of the

Chairman, interesting interpretation of the results... that's not a majority.
My interpretation was that it looked liked basically no-one knew what was best... no clear mandate, 33%,25%,15%...

Mark... sorry, you got me wrong... I didn't ask you to leave... there was a questionmark (?) I was suggesting the question, not really suggesting the answer. (Though sorry, I did make a few silly suggestions hoping you would realise NZ isn't all that bad)

And no I don't make Jam, don't even like it. Tis a play on real name.

Toes? You must be meaning Steps.. toes

“If we had a laissez

"If we had a laissez faire free market, and sound money, not fiat money, with the market delivering the lessons of failure, do you think a financier would have exposed themselves to the risk the Crafars became? With no budgets, and a wall calender for planning?"

Indeed they would, Mark.

Your theory fails to address excessive greed and the mismatch between the interest of those issuing the bad loans and the shareholders that own the bank.

Jamman - Correction accepted. I

Jamman - Correction accepted.

I should have said a larger number prefer we address the banks.

Chairman: you would loan $200

Chairman: you would loan $200 million without a budget?

You wouldn't get a job at my laissez faire bank.

Not me personally but many

Not me personally but many others would, Mark.

When people are getting bonuses to take risks and it's not there capital being used, then many would think what the hell.

... well, then they weren't

... well, then they weren't working for their shareholders, they would lose their jobs and not get a reference: the market would correct the excess.

Mark - Short-term gains coupled

Mark - Short-term gains coupled with some good spin keeps shareholders happy until the mess reveals itself, by which time the bonuses have already been paid.

mARK, "then they weren’t working

mARK,

"then they weren't working for their shareholders, they would lose their jobs and not get a reference: the market would correct the excess."

How can you possibly say this when NONE of the bankers who drove their companies into the ground were required to pay back their bonuses from the good times. For the most part, these bankers are still employed and heaven forbid bonuses are still rising courtesy of govtal largesse.

Chairman, thanks... My bile with

Chairman, thanks...

My bile with regulating the bank is that they do not have the tools (it seems) to recognise good and bad risk. Money is finite, but spending does not seem to be!

When I was first married (21), we had a combined income of 25Kpa. In the same year someone else I know had conbined of 50K... We saved 10K that year and got into business. They saved zero, and wondered why not!

When I applied for my first mortgage, I was earning too little to apparently pay the repayments, though my rent was more than they were...

Banks have to assume everyone spends what they earn... I guess it's pretty common, but can make it hard for the savers.

I reckon it would be good if a profile of each submitter was written... income, region, employment status.

<b>Jimmy</b> <i>How can you possibly

Jimmy

How can you possibly say this when NONE of the bankers who drove their companies into the ground were required to pay back their bonuses from the good times. For the most part, these bankers are still employed and heaven forbid bonuses are still rising courtesy of govtal largesse.

You're exactly reiterating my point Jimmy. So I don't understand the point you're actually making.

Under laissez faire no bank manager would have been getting paid a bonus courtesy of a government bailout, after he had stuffed up - only the public sector writes employment contracts that inept. The system that does make these continuing bonuses is a mixed - read command - economy: the State distortions in this type of market caused the crisis, will cause the next crisis whenever we get out of this one, which bailout programs and over-regulation are extending - while also keeping the same bank managers who made the bad decisions in the same jobs - just as Roosevelt's New Deal extended the Great Depression by perhaps up to a decade, and as Hoover's meddling was a big contributing cause of it.

I put it to you a free market, because it would not have been overloaded with fiat money supply/cheap credit, would not have seen a crisis to the extent of this, as asset bubbles would have been corrected earlier, by market forces, instead of 'grown' by Greenspan - the traitorous sod. Bank managers would have not been able to make such reckless decisions into the vacuum created by the bubble/s, and those that did would have lost their jobs as punishment by the market.

With Bernard, you seem to think we had laissez faire economies going into this crisis: we had anything but.

Thank's 4 The Great Post!!

Thank's 4 The Great Post!! I have heard Credit Report For Free is a excellent place to check my credit report & see my score for nothing. Anybody else tried them?