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Have your say: MFAT's John Allen wants Trans-Tasman currency debate
In a curious development on the weekend, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade's new secretary John Allen, who used to be CEO of NZ Post, stirred up the debate over a Trans-Tasman currency union. This follows Prime Minister John Key's flirting with the common currency idea in mid-August while in Australia. Is this a slow softening up of New Zealand for a common currency? Here's what John Allen told Guyon Espiner on Q&A on Sunday.
Well the common currency's been ruled out by Mr Key in some of his more recent speeches, as you will have heard in Australia, but I do think that New Zealand needs to continue to be thoughtful about being a small currency, exposed to significant volatility, particularly as a trading nation, because when you talk to exporters, one of the primary concerns that they have is the volatility of our currency, it's one of the primary barriers that they face in the delivering - actually entering the export market, but that's been ruled out by Mr Key in his recent speeches, but I do think that there's heaps that we can do with Australia, both in terms of the bilateral relationship between Australia and New Zealand, but also working together out into the wider world.
What I think
The Australians like the idea of a common currency and a single banking regulator because it reduces the risks for them of one of their major foreign economic exposures: the Australian banks' assets in New Zealand. Between them, ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac have NZ$321 billion of assets tied up in New Zealand, or close to two times NZ GDP. The Australians had to pump over NZ$10 billion across the Tasman during the recent international financial crisis and there was some nervousness within APRA, the Australian regulator, about how much exposure the Australian banks had to their New Zealand subsidiaries. New Zealand was essentially underwritten by the Australian government and the Australian savings system during the crisis. Australian savers pumped A$20 billion in fresh equity into the banks inside a few months, with at least A$2 billion of that being sent across to this side of the Tasman. New Zealand savers could never have stumped up the necessary capital to bolster our banks in such a short period of time. Australia is a very politicised place. The bankers and the politicians work together closely. I wondered over at my NZHerald blog whether the Australians were pressuring Key to raise this issue. If we continue to increase our indebtedness we will become a risk for the Australians they will want to manage. There's an old saying about a debt of NZ$100 being a problem for the borrower but when its a NZ$100 million debt it becomes a problem for the bank. New Zealand's debts are now so large they are a problem for our bankers, which means Australia. But is a common currency and single banking regulator the best thing for New Zealand? In the end it's all about sovereignty and how much we want to run our own economy. If we want to maintain our independence we need to reduce our current account deficit, save more, invest more in the productive sectors and invest less in the unproductive sectors. At the moment we appear hell bent on losing our sovereignty. That's what happens you take on too much debt. You give up your sovereignty to the banks. Your view? We welcome your comments below
The Aussie Dingo is even
The Aussie Dingo is even more overvalued than our Kiwi . Where's the advantage to our exporters in linking to that ? The Chinese yuan/renimbi is an option , as we'd get links to the US Peso , and backing of the massive PRC's savings .
Hello Sir I have wondered
Hello Sir
I have wondered for a while if a common currency might help with stabilizing our dollar. I heard a fellow from Federated Farmers on RNZ the other day saying that he didn't mind whether we had a high or low dollar as if he knew for certain he could adjust his business model to suit. What he did mind was potentially going between 40 and 80c to the dollar in a given year. The tumult was hurting farmers he said.
This is interesting in that if we were together with Oz then our currency would no longer (I'd imagine) be so attractive to speculators as it would be larger and therefore harder to influence. Our position as 11th most traded currency means that all exporters (and importers) are faced with pretty heavy uncertainty.
I raised this on radio one day and was told that the higher dollar Oz has would hurt us more than the current uncertainty in terms of exports - but after hearing the Fed Farmers guy I am now thinking maybe the idea isn't too bad. Can someone with more expertise in this area help me at all?
Fix to the Aussie $
Fix to the Aussie $ and our exports to our largest trading partner immedialtey become 20% more expensive, although remaining so therafter, and our imports get cheaper across the board. I wonder who will buy what's left of our export goods?
Harriet, We wouldn't be joining
Harriet,
We wouldn't be joining at parity but at a predetermined conversion rate much as happened with the Euro. I'd say the current rate of 0.80 is a reasonable level to focus on.
Bernard,
I'm glad you are starting to use the word "sovereignty". Ultimately that's what it's all about. Do we want to retain our sovereignty? If so then we have to take a certain path as I've outlined before.
If not then we will end up in bed with our cousins across the ditch.
It seems strange to me
It seems strange to me that exporters would want it, ok they might complain about a fluctuating currency, but then lately the AUD has been all over the place as well.
If exporters are complaining about how high the dollar is now, why would you want to hook up the AUD and go at least another 10 percent higher on what we have now?, with a very real potential for going even higher than that.
Is this guy John Allen trying to help out exporters? or maybe importers?, you have to wonder.
Great idea. Removes exchange rate
Great idea. Removes exchange rate volatility with our largest trade partner - where's the downside in that? Removes uncertainty for importers and exporters and will reduce costs - think of the huge profits made by banks on the AUD/NZD exchange rate spread, commissions and trade finance fees. Off course there will be volatility against other currencies, but no more or less than historically has been the case.
Why would you want to
Why would you want to 'fix' at anything other than parity, raf, when the longer term distortions could play havoc with both pegs to that union? If people think we have excessive funds flows now, I shudder to think what they could be under a disproportionate union. I would imagine harmonisation, a la Euro, would have to be a prerequisit, anyway. But,hey, I'm not an economist or a financial market guru.
cant see how a common
cant see how a common currency would work
the currency is a reflection of the economic policies of the particular country
for it to work we would need to become a state of australia
i cant see that idea being seriously floated.
In a curious move Bernard........really..?
In a curious move Bernard........really..?
Ah been shouting this from the rooftops for ah dunno how long on here now .
No surprise.. but uuuuurgh!! if you have any U.S. paper get out now.!!!!!
For the smaller in heavily
For the smaller in heavily in debt countries in Europe, like Ireland and Iceland,
Being tied to the Euro was one of the worst things that could have happened to them.
NZ is also a small heavily in debt country.
raf : Only amongst Tasmanians
raf : Only amongst Tasmanians is it acceptable to " end up in bed with our cousins across the ditch ". ........ . There it is de rigueur .
Agree Phil
Agree Phil
ABC Ltd, Wellington sets up
ABC Ltd, Wellington sets up subsidiary in Melbourne. Does all exporting from Welly at 0.8 and importing from Melb. at 1.0. Banks with ANZ Group and uses export recepits held in Welly as collateral on borrowings to finance importing business in Melb. etc etc. It becomes the ultimate arbitrage at anything other than 1=1. ? Change of postcode to 9 the only real answer -Territory of New Zealand - has a ring to it!
"sovereignty" you must be joking.
"sovereignty" you must be joking. This mythical thing was given away long ago. The govt has to get permission for policy change from S&P, Moodys, Rudd and the aussie banks, not to mention the fools being asked to front up with 40 billion to balance the splurging. The peasants are kept in a state of ignorance at the extent to which this country has been thoroughly stuffed by successive govts incapable of understanding the difference between a productive economy and a benefit dependent one. The aussies are stuck with this millstone economy hanging round their neck.
All the talk about the
All the talk about the NZ$ being a small currency and therefore being exposed to too much volatility as being a reason for a common currency doesn't stack up. The A$ is just as volatile. We often follow it.
For exporters worried about volatility they can forward cover some or all of their expcted FX receipts. With a common currency they would still have to do that except for sales to Australia. ( The NZ$ does not vary alot against the A$ anyway , in comparison to other currencies ).
I don't think it’s a
I don't think it's a good idea...especially since we are only talking about a dual currency. Maybe if there were a handful of economies (South Africa, OZ, NZ, Indonesia, etc) then it may make sense. We may want to keep a keen eye on China. If they move to a single currency with Hong Kong and Macau it could be a road map NZ could follow. Personally I would like to see a larger Asian super currency I'm not sure what the dual economy currency really does"¦its imposable for it to be win-win on such a small scale
That being said I 'm sure the Michigan and California would love the chance to debase the USD used in their economies even more to help stabilize thier situation...but they can't.
Verdict: NO Anzac or Tanzac!!! Besides what would the gold coin be based on?? The Seagull?
Agree that we need to
Agree that we need to get our debt levels down, so pegging to the AUD so we can take on more debt is not a good idea.
Confuse the currency traders offshore
Confuse the currency traders offshore . Split the Kiwi peso into a subset of provincial coinages . The Coast Possum Peso , Canterbury Sheep Peso , Wellington Blow-Hard Peso , etc . Set up coin exchange guards on the road borders of each province ( Labour will love that , thousands more public servants doing nothing useful ) . Float the whole shooting box onto the foreign currency markets , with a cheery " good luck sorting these out , turkeys " . And then , we as a nation can get back to weightier issues , such as , should Dan Carter play at 2'nd five against the "Boks .
Agree that it in fact
Agree that it in fact turns on 'sovereignty', but is that such a stupid thing to consider?
We'd fit in the Aussie federal system and it would potentially save a fortune on government costs, if done well.
Bottom line The Aussies are
Bottom line The Aussies are complain=ing about having to send money to NZ, and our debit.....WHY?
It was their banks that handed out the money , basically on street cnrs, with little or no security or checks on ability to repay....
Bad bossiness practice in the 1st place and now they bitch cause its gone wrong and blame us...Yeah right...
If we go for the Aussie Dollar, we will end up as a 'second class economy' worse than we already are, just like Tasmania
Sure might be convenient in the sort term under certain fiscal circumstances, but on the long term as markets, cycles go thru, it will hurt us in the long run.
Better to merge the currency
Better to merge the currency with the Zimbabwe Blurta. That way we wouldn't have to buy wallpaper, or toilet paper!
Agree with Steptoe, if the
Agree with Steptoe, if the Aussie banks are so worried about our debt levels, why do they keep increasing them?
Maybe we need the reserve bank to increase even more the levels of local deposits banks need, and exlude aussie deposits from qualifying under this.
Why your at it, may
Why your at it, may as well through in our legal system, voting, sporting teams and any remainder of our national identity.
You don't have to scrape the surface too far to realise how the Aussies will treat us once we become marginalised under their direct control.
Is this John Key "floating
Is this John Key "floating an idea that the moneychangers says the go?
While I believe in having good relations with our neighbours I once again wonder at a world that sees money being the reason that we should marry.I don`t believe we are either economically or characterwise a likely match.
Might be prudent to also
Might be prudent to also discuss - would they have us and what's in it for them?
"Is this John Key “floating
"Is this John Key "floating an idea that the moneychangers says the go?"
Digressing here, just a thought had on the back of my mind foe a couple weeks..
This is the sort of thing Muldoon used to do..and distract from the ral issues of the day...Clark used to do sometimes to.
Wally well said in all
Wally well said in all above. Once sovereignty has gone, it will be gone for good under corporate dominated international law and would add to the international demise of the nationstate and the seemingly inevitable return to an overt empires. Any chance of this nation ever enacting its public credit facilties in its national interest will be gone for good, and I suggest with it any chance of a majority of its citizen ever again acheiving the dignity of economic equal-opportunity.
We certainly would not want to peg it to the US Dollar if this article is anything to go by, Wally, they will soon be using that for wallpaper:
"The title "Farewell America" is fitting because, in the final section of the document, Switzerland's oldest bank reveals a momentous decision. Wegelin & Co. is in the process of recommending that clients "exit from all direct investments in US securities... on the grounds of the threat of inheritance tax coupled with uncertainty as to whether one might not, one way or another, be turned into a US person."
http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-090409.html
These for those who dont believe multinational corporate influenced rule has reached a tipping point of where it will be almost unstoppable:
1. The WTO Is Fundamentally Undemocratic
The policies of the WTO impact all aspects of society and the planet, but it is not a democratic, transparent institution. The WTO rules are written by and for corporations with inside access to the negotiations. For example, the US Trade Representative gets heavy input for negotiations from 17 "Industry Sector Advisory Committees." Citizen input by consumer, environmental, human rights and labor organizations is consistently ignored. Even simple requests for information are denied, and the proceedings are held in secret. Who elected this secret global government?
http://www.globalexchange.org/campaigns/wto/OpposeWTO.html
This for the best 25yr chronology of creeping of multinational corporates and their central banker parents
http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/hyper/list.html
especially this on IMF and Worldbank outcomes for developing nations
http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/mm2001/092001/
I for one would like to see us join a fight for freedom, not throw in the towel.
Look at the Eurozone http://www21.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gdp+
Look at the Eurozone http://www21.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gdp+eurozone
Look at the relative sizes of the NZ and AU economies http://www21.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gdp+new+zealand+australia
Look at the relative sizes of the German and Belgian economies http://www21.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gdp++germany+belgium
Same ratio 7:1. Who has more clout - Germany or Belgium?
In a common currency scenario, economic policies that focus on the dominant partner rule.
Which is......not New Zealand
Bernand, you are making a
Bernand, you are making a dumbo call here....
I am not sure why the Aussie banks are complaining, after all they were the ones who bought out our banks, NAB bought BNZ, Commonwealth purchased ASB, ANZ bought National. These guys knew future earnings when they made the decisiion to invest in NZ and they are making a killing out of us. Otherwise why did they iinvest an extrta $10B this year.
The reason we are an indebted lot is that the Aussie banks have offered us lots of money to borrow, then the banks have become to scared to turn the taps of and cause property values to plunge. That would really hurt the Aussie banks loan book.
Not our fault mate, so why bail out the dumb investor bank directors of Melbourne.
A common currency means that the Aussie banks will inflate our economy further to increase the speed of payback, which can be only bad for us.
Origin Directors of Contact will get their high directors fees in A$, another cost transfer to Australia, and the multi nationals will charge Sydney prices to NZers.
Our economnies and wage rates are two different to sustain a common currency.
"have become to scared to
"have become to scared to turn the taps of"(sic) too true blue.
Don, Many thanks. It's true
Don,
Many thanks. It's true I do have big ears and very large feet...
But one of your points is internally inconsistent. You say the Aussies would like to inflate our economy. That would be very bad for the banks because is bad for lenders and great for borrowers.
cheers
Bernard
Okay Bernard, you are right
Okay Bernard, you are right about the inflation issue...
But that does not let the big Aussie banks of the hook because they over invested in NZ.
I am not in favour of doing things for big banks who may have backed the wrong strategy.
We'll all sing Matilda like
We'll all sing Matilda like it or not,,...... the C.E.O. is in da house cranking up the sound.
No it's not a distraction, it's a directive he's got to figure how to make us WANT it.
@ Christov, yes - this
@ Christov,
yes - this is a false flag operation. The Aussies want us for our water:
http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/809/41593
Capital Flow Controls are a
Capital Flow Controls are a far more sane answer than giving up our sovereignty
Then a team of IMF staffers admitted - albeit implicitly - that their agency had been driven by ideology rather than empirical observation in doggedly opposing capital controls. These are measures to regulate the speed and volatility with which short-term and speculative investment - so-called ''hot money'' - is allowed to cross borders. Investors would shun countries using controls, the IMF had long argued.
But the agency's Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department admitted in a report that controlling both the inflows and outflows of capital has, to varying degrees, helped countries to protect themselves from crisis. Indeed, overwhelming capital inflows precipitated Asia's woes by encouraging investment in projects of questionable financial pedigree and economic merit.
http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/BA20Dj01.html
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2001/el2001-25.html
http://rspas.anu.edu.au/economics/publish/papers/wp2007/wp-econ-2007-07.pdf