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Consumer confidence highest since beginning of recession, survey shows
The NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey rose to its highest level in early September since March 2008, which was the first quarter in which New Zealand entered recession.
Predictions are for the New Zealand economy to exit recession in the September quarter this year, although subsequent growth is set to be subdued into 2010 as the unemployment rate keeps rising to above 7%. The Reserve Bank said earlier this year that it expects to keep the Official Cash Rate at or below its record low of 2.5% until the latter part of 2010, although some economists are sceptical about whether it can keep this pledge as the economy recovers.
The twice monthly survey saw its latest rating at 114.5, up from 112.3 in mid-August and 114.1 at the beginning of August. This compared to 107.3 in early September 2008 after the rating had hit a low of 82 at the start of July 2008.
Of the respondents to the survey, 43% said they thought now was a good time to buy major household items, which was up 6% from the previous survey. This compared to 40% who thought it was a bad time to buy major household items, down 3% from mid-August.
This result was a strong indicator that consumer spending in New Zealand may have reached a bottom from which it can resume growing, Roy Morgan researchers said.
gee wizz.....where do they get
gee wizz.....where do they get these "confident" people from....are they all living in never-never land? Alice-in-Wonderland? head-stuck-in-sand land? have we really lost it in terms of realizing risk? maybe a good Depression is what we need to make us wake up to the real risks and impacts of how we live....
regards
Hottest August on record....can't remember
Hottest August on record....can't remember so many sunny days in a row in Christchurch during the winter. No wonder people feel more confident!
But less than a year ago the global banking system nearly collapsed in its entirety. One would have thought that would have been a rather sharp lesson in how unstable our financial framework is.
It's hard to see that the lessons have been learned in any way at all. But slowly it seems that the central bankers are coming to terms with the full scale of the situation.
Credit creation and expansion are now finally in their sights.
This won't get through to the general population for some time but the change is underway.
Raf I don't believe that
Raf
I don't believe that will happen unless there is a shock that affects the lives of NZers. The GFC is an interesting story that is happening elsewhere for most people - did you see the survey results they did recently on people's perceptions of this recession. Most people thought it was an overhyped media event!
93% of people are still employed. Most people don't follow financial markets or even understand what caused the reason behind what has caused the GFC. Until they are personally affected - maybe through a loan being called in, or losing their job, they continue to live their life as they always have. This recession (so far) is not as bad as the one we had in the late 80s early 90s in terms of it's effect on ordinary NZers.
The only way there will be any meaningful change from this crisis is if there is a crisis here in NZ. That may happen yet.
Raf: Im pretty sure most
Raf: Im pretty sure most ppl dont understand and dont really care as long as they have an improving lifestyle....the Pollies and advertisers etc have all sold them this make believe...its really easy to sell something ppl want...and feel they deserve. My parents and Grandparents lived through the Great Depression, that left a huge mental scar on them....
Im not sure what you are saying on Central bankers, do you mean they can see there is a problem and are going to fix it, or that they are determined to see us back on the previous path? G Brown etc are fighting for their political lives....the gambling they are doing is to save their "faces" / careers is with our money and our livelihoods, and in some cases the house we live in and our old age provisions. These are the people who ignored the warnings and even contributed to this disaster....and now they dont appear to have learned anything or be humbed by their mistake(s) but are still in charge....to me if there was any sense someone in an ordainary job who made such enormous mistakes would be sacked, instantly....ie the likes of you and me.
I dont know if there will be a crisis in NZ, if the World does have one yes, we will be in a bad way IMHO. I think our over-exuberance with housing is going to see a huge wipeout in some ppls paper wealth, and in other cases they end up with un-manageable debt....so the potential impact is big.....the unknown is the risk or likelihood of that eventuating.
regards
"across New Zealand by telephone
"across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,026 people aged 14 and over" ! Aged what? This survey is about as much use as a wet paper bag.
Steven/Mike, Yes I agree the
Steven/Mike,
Yes I agree the general population don't really understand what happened or why apart from the general over exuberance of property lending. And yes employment is very important as regular income is the main requirement for any loan. Europe suffers hugely from entrenched unemployment levels with no hope of that changing. Add deflation into that mix and its an unappealing situation.
I think, finally, that the central bankers do understand what is needed i.e. firmer control over the money supply and therefore a more stable value of money. Redoing the capital adequacy framework is now mentioned regularly. So policy can be tightened through the raising of capital requirements i.e. less money can be loaned.
So expect higher deposit requirements, less leverage and so therefore lower prices. This last point is the sticky bit. No one really wants to prick the bubble (which despite the last year is still in place).
NZ could be well place but it is still very heavily exposed on the debt front. Our exporters, the source of repayment of our debt, are being gutted by exchange rate volatility and an overvalued rate.
We have to deal with this at some point. Better to do it under our own speed rather than in forced circumstances.
Raf they are not being
Raf they are not being gutted by the Kiwi being at 70us. They are being done to a turn by their own indebtedness, their dependence on a rate at 50 or even less, so they can pay the interest on the debts. Those farms and exporters with lower debt loads are not being gutted. The trouble is the massive greed and rush to borrow to buy, to convert and get in on the boom in prices in dairy. Now the banks are spreading the load to reduce the chance of mortgagee sales otherwise the bank balance sheets will be shot to hell. The farms with very little to finance are being done over by the banks, to support the overleveraged and thereby prop up the banks.
Did my own survey at
Did my own survey at home : Polled the missus . She gave a 75 % confidence rating . But raised satisfaction level to 100 % upon agreement to survey fee of new household whitegoods ( F&P fridge-freezer ) . That was up 25 % from previous monthly survey , polling fee of Sebo vacuum cleaner . A cross-section of respondent gave 100 % support of a similar polling to be conducted next month ( bloody hell woman , I'm a man , not a machine .) . Note to Roy Morgan , major household items do get you better results . Happy polling , guys . I am now overleveraged , but satisfaction level has risen to 114.7 %
Alex - why do you
Alex - why do you bother reporting this garbage?
Spring is the silly season
Spring is the silly season . You need to have fun . Frolic . Be a little gay , Andy , we are ! Hugs .