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Top 10 at 10: 'The poverty effect'; China's rare metals hunger; Mothballed ships; Dilbert

Posted in News

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome any additions and comments in the comments below or please send your suggestions to me at bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz There are no industry standards at interest.co.nz...

Dilbert.com

1. John F Wasik at Bloomberg explains the 'poverty effect' of a loss of US$7 trillion in household wealth is an albatross around the neck of the United States economy.

This dour effect is clipping a robust recovery. Millions who have little or negative home equity are shackled to houses they can't sell and a debt burden that keeps them from moving ahead. They can't save, either, although they desperately need to boost their cash reserves.

Not a week goes by when I don't hear from a friend or neighbor who can't sell their home or get a decent price for it. They were counting on the proceeds to fund retirement or simply get on with their lives and careers. They weren't planning to go out and buy boats and big-screen TVs. Most Americans are suffering from the opposite of the wealth effect: a creeping sense of poverty.

The loss is about $54,000 per home if you average out the $7 trillion among 130 million U.S. housing units (including rentals), according to an estimate by the economic blog http://www.newobservations.net, based on Federal Reserve data.

2. Tim Colebatch at The Age simply doesn't believe the figures showing Australian GDP rose 0.6% in the June quarter. HT Wally.

In the year to June, the production data showed GDP fell 0.7 per cent. On the income data, it fell 0.3 per cent. Yet on the expenditure measure, GDP growth accelerated despite the recession to 2.9 per cent. And it is the average of these three that gives us the official figure of 0.6 per cent.

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Something is very wrong, and there's an obvious suspect. The bureau reports that between December and June the value of our exports plunged 22 per cent. Yet it says exports actually grew, and the slump was due solely to a 24 per cent plunge in prices for everything we sell.

Sorry, I don't buy that. I predict it will be revised, and take the GDP down with it.

3. Some of the big and savvy US hedge fund managers are betting on a slump in US markets, including Paul Tudor Jones, the fund manager who outperformed his peers last year, Bloomberg reported. HT Troy Barsten via email.

Tudor, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm started by Jones in the early 1980s, told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market's climb was a "bear-market rally." Weak growth in household income was among the reasons to be dubious about the rebound's chances of survival, Tudor said.

"Some critical initiatives have been cut short," Tudor said. "As a result, toxic assets remain on balance sheets and credit growth is likely to be subdued for a long period."

4. This came out a wee while ago, but still fairly shocking. Ambrose Evans Pritchard at the Telegraph has pointed out that China is about to ban exports of a bunch of rare metals used in catalytic converters, superconductors and a bunch of other high tech goods. It's all part of China's desperation to get and keep its hands on hard commodities. HT Troy via email.

A draft report by China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called for a total ban on foreign shipments of terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, thulium, and lutetium. Other metals such as neodymium, europium, cerium, and lanthanum will be restricted to a combined export quota of 35,000 tonnes a year, far below global needs.

China mines over 95pc of the world's rare earth minerals, mostly in Inner Mongolia. The move to hoard reserves is the clearest sign to date that the global struggle for diminishing resources is shifting into a new phase. Countries may find it hard to obtain key materials at any price.

5. There are now rows and rows of cargo ships mothballed in the seas around Singapore after the 20%-plus slump in global trade in the last year, according to the New York Times is this piece from Singapore.

Hundreds of cargo ships "” some up to 300,000 tons, with many weighing more than the entire 130-ship Spanish Armada "” seem to perch on top of the water rather than in it, their red rudders and bulbous noses, submerged when the vessels are loaded, sticking a dozen feet out of the water.

So many ships have congregated here "” 735, according to AIS Live ship tracking service of Lloyd's Register-Fairplay in Redhill, Britain "” that shipping lines are becoming concerned about near misses and collisions in one of the world's most congested waterways, the straits that separate Malaysia and Singapore from Indonesia.

6. Another New York Times story digs deeper into the ongoing slump in US commercial real estate and what it means for the banking system there. Bailouts are in the wind, it seems.

These days, the people who buy and sell office buildings, shopping centers, warehouses, apartment buildings and hotels are hardly in a festive mood, despite some recent encouraging signs relating to the job and housing markets and a recent increase in sales of small office buildings.

Even though industry lobbyists were able to persuade Congress to extend a loan program aimed at prodding the stalled securitization market back to life, several analysts said it was unlikely to head off a spate of defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies that could surpass the devastating real estate crash of the early 1990s. "It will prop up a few deals, but you can't stop the wave that's coming," said Peter Hauspurg, the chief executive of Eastern Consolidated, a New York brokerage firm.

The distress is still in its early stages, analysts said. "We are between the first and second inning," said Richard Parkus, who directs research on commercial mortgage-backed securities for Deutsche Bank. "We're going to have to get through a very difficult period."

7. Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards has some interesting ideas on why bond yields are staying relatively low despite the huge supply hitting the market, FTAlphaville pointed out. He also thinks stock markets are wildly overpriced. It's all about deflation.

In the US and elsewhere, where commercial bank exposure to government paper is still close to all-time lows, the unwinding of grotesque over-exposure to bubble sectors like real estate will continue to underpin the secular bull market in government bonds.

Once again, equity participants are missing the big picture. Despite clear signs from the business surveys of some sort of H2 recovery, firm evidence is emerging that the global economy is sliding towards a full-blown deflationary episode once this recovery falters.

8. This will be another movie to watch out for: 'American Casino'. It digs deep into the sub-prime mortgage debacle. The New Yorker has a review, which describes one scene where a Bear Stearns banker details his dealings with a ratings agency.

Here's the drill: when the bank assembled a group of mortgage-backed bonds as an investment product, it submitted them to a ratings agency. But the agency, rather than run its own computer models on the trustworthiness of such bonds, he says, merely handed the job back to the bank, which ran its models. Having received a fee of perhaps a hundred thousand dollars for not doing anything, the agency then signed off on the phony ratings.

You can read about a scam like that in a newspaper and be surprised, but when the perpetrator actually explains it to you your reaction falls somewhere between nausea and hilarity. It's as if the Russian Mafia had paid a Colombian drug cartel to certify its integrity.

9. This is a cracking story about how a famed short seller Jim Chanos told World Bank and other officials in April 2007 of a coming crisis. He was ignored. It seems Gordon Brown and Timothy Geithner were at the meeting. New Deal 2.0 has the story, which is well worth a read. It made me angry all over again.

Rob Johnson: Let's talk about how people reacted to you then and then in the aftermath of the meeting. What - without picking on particular policymakers, what - how did they look at you? How did they react? Were they curious? Were they dismissive? How would you describe it?

Jim Chanos: Well, there was a lot of sort of - you have to keep in mind this was Sunday afternoon. You're at the end of the conference. But I think we were seen probably as much as an annoyance as anything else from people who wanted to catch a plane or get home.

But there was some uncomfortable paper shuffling. There was sort of, you know, that looking at the ceiling across the table. There was a bit of eye rolling. There's no doubt about that.

And at the end of my talk the fellow running the meeting asked if there was any questions. There were literally no questions and at that point the Chair of the meeting said, "Well, that's all very interesting and now what do you think about insurance."

10. Here's a comedian talking about credit card debt. Really. It's funny.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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1 Comments

item 4: Where odes our

item 4: Where odes our FTA agreement stand on this?

regards

Another day of woe......... 1)

Another day of woe.........

1) I was in the library this morning, just browsing, and came across "Prophecy" by Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad, Poor Dad). Written in 2002 he forecast that millions of retirees would be living in poverty as their pension portfolios blew up as they all rushed to cash them in. His argument was based on the flow of funds - more coming out than going in. It's already happened in Japan and probably will happen in other places as well. Like Japan, the US will find it tough to come back from this monetary cataclysm.

2) Beware statistics: i was surprised by this number having seen the deficit numbers the day before.

7) I'm in agreement here. All this talk about inflation is premature. We are in a serious deflationary environment and simply in a phase of serious stimulus.....but when the financial corpse is dead no amount of monetary CPR is going to revive it. I've been buying bonds since last September and credit issues aside am very happy to be there. Rates aren't going anywhere.

9) Politicians are not going to sort this out. Life is too cushy....just keep fumbling along. From a rational perspective it makes sense. Why take risks when you are in power...its all a game to just be a little bit better than the opposition. Did the Trojans listen to Cassandra? Look what happened to them :-)

Bernard, The news that China

Bernard,

The news that China will be moving to ban or seriously restrict minerals is something that has been bubbling away for awhile now for those that follow mining activity.

It's an opening stanza in resource nationalism and China is not alone in going down this path.

The other week Brazil also made some significant statements in regard to the off shore oil fields that it has.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/18/world/americas/18brazil.html?em

I guess that those Governments and their "Mandarian's" have been reading Harold Hotelling and his 'Hotelling Rule' which came out of his paper on The Economics of Exhaustible Resources in 1931.

Hotelling postulated that any rational producer of resources would only extract and sell a resource if the investment opportunities available with the capital proceeds were greater than simply leaving that resource to appreciate in the ground. Something also that the Saudi King alluded to last year about leaving oil in the ground for the grandchildren

The old economic paradigms might not be the new rules.

HT Thoughts and conversations with Gregor

It looks like even drug

It looks like even drug dealers will need a bailout soon!

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/08/hit_by_recession_cocaine_deale.html

@Steven Probably nowhere. Fairly certain

@Steven

Probably nowhere. Fairly certain that items of a 'Strategic Nature' are precluded with the FTA agreement.
Able to buy goods that include those minerals as part of their manufacture, but not the bulk raw material.

Also - with those minerals, NZ would have very limited capacity to use/transform them in applications for which they are applied.

And if push came to shove - China would say lump it.

item 9: Enron is mentioned

item 9: Enron is mentioned enough...it looks fraudulent....

the audi here is pretty damning...

http://www.newdeal20.org/?p=4380

maybe this is why the high salaries have returned, payback for criminal activity.....

G. Brown etc clearly were told of the risks but ignored them, he so deserves to lose the election....but I guess that's typical for Pollies, cant be trusted.

regards

@Blair: sets a precedent that

@Blair: sets a precedent that the FTA is worthless....pretty easy for a Govn to declare anything strategic, even food. As far as NZ using them, Im pretty sure one of the points some ppl raised about our FTA was that other country's businesses could use us as a conduit....it was seen as a plus...

regards

@Steven http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,2

@Steven

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,26020744-5005200,...

Another article on the rare earth materials via TimesOnline.

Talks a bit more about implications on WTA and global manufacturing.

Certainly a very interesting development to keep a watch on.

As for Pollies - no not to be trusted at all. Only focus is getting re-elected - not long term issues.

Item 6 - Link appears

Item 6 - Link appears to be same as 5

Hi Bernard, It just occurred

Hi Bernard,

It just occurred to me reading your site (and I do this everyday !!) that most of New Zealand actually don't know about the news that you are posting or are simply disbelieving it if they do. The mainstream newspaper (everyone infact) is full of bullish news lately (or should it be Bull News?)...even today it just flashed ....All NZ Commodities prices went up !!!...Happy days are here again !! Real Estate booms again !!! and all that.

I fell so sad for NZ now i am going into my Magumbo bunker....

Kin, That puts you one

Kin,

That puts you one step ahead of the game I think.
Let the masses buy up Auckland real Estate. It'll bite them and you know it will.
So rest easy and relax, Bernard is the Man with the information and which info source would you rather trust; interest.co.nz or stuff.co.nz?

Garkenro My apologies. My snafu.

Garkenro
My apologies. My snafu.
I've fixed that link to the NY Times commercial property story
Here it is
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/02/business/economy/02office.html?scp=1&s...

cheers
Bernard

Chasing that rare-earth news at

Chasing that rare-earth news at 2am

As hybrid cars gobble rare metals, shortage looms
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090901/india_nm/india420934_3

@Kin That Mogambo Bunker is Seriously Filling Up Fast (SFUF)!!
;-)

Take five to watch Tim

Take five to watch Tim Clue on the Utube link...........nails it for most of the population here, there, everywhere.......... very funny ,very true.

Any thread in a storm!

Any thread in a storm!
This popped up today and made me think:
JAN MCCALLUM | "Employers are retaining staff in the downturn by cutting hours, but cuts in training are leading to predictions of a looming shortage of skilled workers" The Age.
We will see an exodus of skilled to aus to fill any gaps over there. Has this been factored into TAs property projections. Me thinks Trass is right.

Other states in the top

Other states in the top 10 for total properties with filings were Michigan, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada and Maryland. Internet Banking

Bath Screens

Bath Screens