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Railway freight volumes in the United States are down 18% from a year ago
Bernard Hickey details an economic weather report in association with ASB, including a look at how railway freight volumes in the United States are down 18% from a year ago and still falling despite signs of 'green shoots'.
Stuff "stuff", Bernard! Be specific!
Stuff "stuff", Bernard! Be specific!
Coal volumes hardly moved YOY, grain mill products down 5% and metals down 50%, all this assuming that other variables (such as loading efficiency, empty units etc) remain constant. What does it tell us? Not NEARLY as much as international airfreight figures.
About 30% of world trade by value (compared with around 5% - check me on that, but it's well below 10% by weight/volume) is air freighted.
Given that air freight is integral to Lean Manufacturing/JIT, it's by far the better indicator because change is rapid and significant.
I worked for a major European carrier for big chunks of my life and developed (back in the mid-1990s) a system to forecast changes in traffic volume by correlating historical load factors with historical exchange rate trends. Back then there was a 3 month eastbound/ 6 month westbound lag on the North Atlantic, but the reaction to exchange rates was uncannily accurate.
These days, it'll be on a hair trigger...
Begs the question, why did
Begs the question, why did Buffet buy into rail?
Wally : "Cos Warren Buffet
Wally : "Cos Warren Buffet knows that investors chase the latest " fad " industries . And thereby proven cashflow companies get neglected . Wisely chosen , cigarette manufacturers and infrastructure stocks , have paid massive dividends to patient holders . And this guy has patience galore ! Petrol companies , road maintenance , water treatment ........ all unglamorous sectors , but ' there's brass in muck ' , my lad !
This link shows the situation
This link shows the situation for PRIME mortgages.
Cure rate 6.6%, 9% Delinquent and Foreclosing.
You can't have green shoots when 10% of your best borrowers are in touble.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/huge-plunge-in-mortga...
Still tracking 1930 nicely. http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/200
Still tracking 1930 nicely.
http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/2009/08/wednesday-august-27-1930-dow-23...
More bad news from overseas
More bad news from overseas US:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajDHMyQ5oDKs
Listen to that : http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/31
Listen to that :
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/312114/%22In-the-Tank-Forev...
I wonder why Buffet didn't
I wonder why Buffet didn't want to buy Toll's NZ rail outfit ! The Chinese made new train set should arrive soon. Hope it's more reliable than my first air compressor, and the replacement. Must be the most expensive train set in the world. Well done Cullen.