In this section
Offers for readers
The comment stream
Recent comments
- 1 of 19105
- ››
Editors choice
- 1 of 276
- ››
Finance sector jobs
Successful applicants will have the opportunity to work with this leading Australian Advis...more
Australia
Think Global Recruitment is working with this exceptionally respected Australian Boutique ...more
Australia
Sought after opportunity to move to one of the most beautiful westernised countries in the...more
Australia

The news stream
Latest news
Most commented
- 90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ 116
- Wednesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint 78
- Friday's Top 10 with NZ Mint 28
- Amanda's Take Five for Wednesday 19
- The problems with NZ's energy use 18
- More bank mortgage rate cuts 16
- Govt lifts minimum wage 50 cts to $13.50 an hour 16
- Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint 15
- 90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ 14
- Full time jobs fall 13,000 in Dec qtr 14
Most viewed
Interest on Twitter
Opinion: Emissions trading and the danger for NZ exporters

By Infometrics economist Adolf Stroombergen
As the main political parties seem to support the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in some shape or form, one could be forgiven for thinking that the current Select Committee review of the ETS by the government is pointless.
Leaving aside commitments between political parties, however, the review has presented an opportunity to compare the national cost of an ETS to an alternative policy of government simply raising taxes. It has also enabled more analysis of the best way to help industry adjust to a carbon-constrained world. These issues have recently been jointly studied by Infometrics and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research in this report.
Under New Zealand's Kyoto commitment we either have to reduce our carbon emissions to what they were in 1990, or we have to purchase emission units from other countries. Both options come at a cost to the economy. Our research shows that the cost of undertaking domestic emissions reduction is high. Consequently it makes sense for us to meet most of our Kyoto obligation by purchasing emission units from offshore. We then need to decide how this cost should be distributed.
One way is for the government to simply raise income taxes and use the revenue to purchase the required units. It is a simple option, but is unlikely to be very fair as it doesn't really make those who generate the most pollution pay more.
This leads naturally to the idea of either a tax on carbon emissions or a price on the right to emit carbon "“ an emission permit. Either way those people or businesses that emit the most carbon pay the most. That seems much fairer. Furthermore, by placing a price on emissions there is an incentive to reduce them, an incentive that is absent under a general rise in income taxes. The macroeconomic benefit of this is that fewer emission units need to be bought from offshore. Thus a carbon tax or permit system does not need to raise as much revenue as would an increase in income tax.
Accordingly it would seem to be a no-brainer that a tax or permit system is superior to a rise in income taxes as a way of meeting our Kyoto obligation. What economists call a "˜partial equilibrium' analysis leads to exactly that conclusion, but a "˜general equilibrium' (GE) analysis shows that introducing a carbon price has some fairly complex effects.
Related Topics
The main effect that is taken into account in GE analysis is that the industries that are most affected by a carbon price are also those that produce most of New Zealand's exports "“ those that we need to generate the foreign exchange to purchase the international emission units. So while we need their help, a carbon charge undermines their international competitiveness. At the same time of course, less output from those industries means fewer emissions. General equilibrium analysis allows us to examine the trade-off.
An added complication is how other countries respond and how this affects the competitiveness of New Zealand based operations. Assuming our major trading partners do not have a similar carbon price, is there some way of retaining the incentive to reduce emissions by having a price on carbon, while minimising the deleterious effect on exporters?
We looked at three options, all of which involve general taxpayers taking on more of the cost of meeting New Zealand's emissions obligation: exempting some industries from a carbon price, holding the carbon price to within a low maximum, or providing some degree of free allocation of permits (instead of auctioning them all to the highest bidders). In the limit the first two options approach a situation where taxpayers bear the full cost. For the period of New Zealand's Kyoto obligation up to 2012 it turns out that there is not much material difference between them.
In the longer term, however, the relative costs of the different options change. Any post-Kyoto agreement is likely to be tougher with regard to emission reduction targets. That would raise the international price of carbon. If some industries remain excluded from a carbon price, and the price rises, increasingly cost efficient opportunities to reduce domestic emissions would be by-passed. This is inefficient, implying that having taxpayers bear most of the cost of reducing emissions becomes a more costly option.
Hence as the carbon price rises the case for a comprehensive carbon pricing scheme such as the ETS or carbon tax becomes stronger. This is because everyone faces the incentive to reduce emissions, at the international market price, even though some free allocation of emission permits to selected industries should still be provided "“ generally until other countries adopt similar measures.
Taking into account these longer run considerations and the desirability of providing clear signals to investors, strengthens the case for a carbon price (ETS or carbon tax) also applying to the Kyoto commitment period to 2012, again with some free allocation to selected industries to provide them time to adapt. This sort of policy mix provides the flexibility to respond to changing policy in other countries while minimising the economic risks to New Zealand.
________________
* Infometrics is an economic information and forecasting company based in Wellington. To find out more, see its website here. This piece first appeared in the Dominion Post.
Our money should go directly
Our money should go directly towards better infrastructure such as new urbanist housing developments with cycle ways etc (something giving permanent tangible results).
I think we need to move towards the Asian model of capitalism with more hands on by government and more enlightened environmentalists involved, the trick being getting the right people in charge.
I think what JH is
I think what JH is trying to say is that we should adopt communism.
The biggest issue I have
The biggest issue I have with an ETS is, it appears to take little account of efficiency between nations in terms of how (say) food is produced or how essential a good is to life...not directly anyway...ie if our farmers are the most efficient food producers then per kilo we should be paying no carbon surcharge, but everyone else should, the degree they pay varying dependant on how less efficient they are relative to us....If we dont pay zero then some other business endevour in NZ that produces something else (non-food) is going to appear to be the better place to put capital, say planting pine trees....yet we need food, its an essentail to life......and finally while on food as an example, it only makes sense to tax something where the effect is to get a change in a production method to make it less carbon emitting....if cow farts cant be stopped as its fundimental to the process, then its silly to tax on them....
The other issue I have is this "we can carry on polluting just as long as we buy credits from someone else"....so if we can afford the carbon tax....we dont change, potty IMHO.
regards
Steven, it's not the farting
Steven, it's not the farting that matters, it's the belching, so I'm told and that's just the MPs, goodness knows what the cows get up to.
Nice analysis -- but the
Nice analysis -- but the problem is that it assumes we have to kowtow to UN and other countries by playing along with their little Kyoto game.
The science is not settled. It is increasingly unsettled, as each month passes and global temperatures continue to decline -- totally out of sync with CO2 levels and "expert" predictions of climate trends.
It would be utterly foolish for NZ to introduce any additional taxes based on such flimsy evidence.
Our best option is to play for time.
"I think what JH is
"I think what JH is trying to say is that we should adopt communism."
we shouldn't let consumer choice over ride an outcome necessary for the well being of society (as a whole) and neither should we rely on market forces as a solution as we do not know the limits (at least in the foreseable future) of technology.
J H I would say
J H I would say we have already adopted a form of communism and comrade Key will no doubt call it something else
Baz
"One way is for the
"One way is for the government to simply raise income taxes and use the revenue to purchase the required units. It is a simple option, but is unlikely to be very fair as it doesn't really make those who generate the most pollution pay more."
Therefore why are WORKING taxpayers picking up the tab for the unsustainable welfare system? Due entirely to socialist governments' policies of the past 40 or so years.
As DavidW says the science is not settled, PM Key does not have a mandate to further tax the life blood out of the productive sector.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWWNLvgU4MI&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWWNLvgU4MI&NR=1
Carbon credit trading is the
Carbon credit trading is the new bubble being generated by the US and Europe. Protectionism is at the heart of it. What better way to generate income from nothing, and rebalance trade deficits? Consumerism, whether it be a hamburger or a hummer is the only real economy left to the west. The Carbon trading market will outpace the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ, in ten year's time. It's fish or cut bait time for kiwis. Do we allow the New World Order to tax New Zealanders in return for trading privileges in North America & Europe, or do we decouple and provide our main exports to an Asia that has cash and makes stuff, and will not see its sovereign wealth transferred to the West.
Considering that the oceans are
Considering that the oceans are the biggest carbon sink on this planet, surely our very large EEZ would have to alter the balance in NZ's favour? Any warming of temperatures would result in higher bio activity on the oceanic fronts and increase the "detrital rain" locking the carbon up on the seafloor/oceanic plates/subduction zones. We are going to be rich........now we just need to fertilise the oceans with something.........anyone think of anything NZ has a lot of that we could pump out to sea to get the little algae's to grow a bit faster and poop on the seafloor at a higher rate..........???
Might be a few more fishing eating algae poop as well....we could have a fishing industry too.....we are going to be so rich!!!!
I love it how man thinks he can control mother nature........we will continue to be idiots and every so often mother nature will give us a boot in the a$$.
Sooner we run out of oil the better.......
According to Matt Taibbi you
According to Matt Taibbi you might be right Doug. Look at the last para in this article
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_b...
Paul Yes, Iron, the southern
Paul
Yes, Iron, the southern oceans don't have enough, I don't agree with your simplistic temp = activity calc though, algae live on sunlight, warmth may be counterproductive to organisms that have evolved in cold oceans
Neven
Well said Doug where you
Well said Doug where you opined: "Carbon credit trading is the new bubble being generated by the US and Europe. Protectionism is at the heart of it. What better way to generate income from nothing, and rebalance trade deficits? Consumerism, whether it be a hamburger or a hummer is the only real economy left to the west".
Alarmingly, I recall reading some time ago of suggestions emanating from Britain (surprise surprise) for 'individually tradable carbon credits'. This, of course, would be the ultimate financial nightmare for the middle class in which you would be forced to purchase additional credits (in order to be able to travel to work etc to earn the money to buy fresh credits) once you had exhausted your meagre government ration. From whom would you buy those credits? Presumably - domestically - there would be a defacto orientation towards buying from large, welfare dependent, families who would be unlikely to be using up their credits traveling huge distances to work etc in order to earn the money to pay the taxes and so on. Presumably, modern technology would also make it possible for credits to be 'purchased' from pretty well anywhere in the world - thus delivering a mechanism for global income (and ultimately asset) redistribution.
Remember, the same people who have been telling you for years that the sole rationale for human existence is rapacious consumption and perpetual economic growth - those same people now doing everything in their power (however financially irresponsible) to re-ignite consumption - are the same people telling you to simultaneously don hair shirt and embrace monastic abstinence!
I am a believer in treasuring the environment, but when it comes to this carbon credit business I'm with William Shakespeare - "I do smell all horse piss, at which my nose is in great indignation".
I see a Chinaman with
I see a Chinaman with a large very sharp ended length of bamboo getting ready to POP the US Treasury IOU toilet paper sales. He's just waiting for the first US carbon excuse import tax to hit Chinese goods. Then, BANG!
"An added complication is how
"An added complication is how other countries respond and how this affects the competitiveness of New Zealand based operations. Assuming our major trading partners do not have a similar carbon price, is there some way of retaining the incentive to reduce emissions by having a price on carbon, while minimising the deleterious effect on exporters?"
That seems to be the major hick up with any emissions reductions, the possibility of under reporting, cheating to gain a competitive advantage (not that that is a reason to do nothing).
Gareth Morgan stressed at his seminar how important it is to get policy right and he also concluded from his studying the gw arguments that "the science isn't settled but the weight of evidence is on the side of the "alarmists"
Under the current private debt
Under the current private debt based monetary system, and the science surrounding climate change very much inconclusive, when these people say we must invest 50 trillion dollars through to 2050 to combat climate change, those that know how international banking works know that, that means borrow 50 trillion, which concerns me a great deal -
This is a start. Achieving the large-scale greenhouse gas reductions that scientists say are needed will require a massive global shift to cleaner energy sources and technologies.
The International Energy Agency recently estimated that the world will have to invest as much as $50 trillion through 2050 in new energy infrastructure and equipment in order to
reduce carbon dioxide levels to half of today's levels.
The renewable energy market is already taking off. Global clean energy investments quadrupled in the past four years, to $150 billion in 2007. Toyota is growing at breakneck speed because it saw that consumers wanted hybrids and other fuel-efficient vehicles. US automakers ignored climate change "“ and now their large sport utility vehicles are sitting
unused in car lots and their very survival is at stake.
No wonder one of America's leading venture capitalists, John Doerr, calls clean energy and other climate change solutions "the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century."
Many major banks and investment firms "“ key drivers in the global economy -- are also responding in significant ways to climate change. A Ceres report issued in January found that many United States, European and Japanese banks are setting internal greenhouse gas reductions targets, boosting climate-related equity research and elevating lending and financing for clean energy projects.
The report also showed that many major banks are showing more due-diligence in avoiding climate risky investments. A half-dozen banks have begun calculating a "cost of carbon" into their lending decisions and one bank, Bank of America, has gone so far as to set specific greenhouse gas reduction target in its lending to the utility sector.
http://www.ceres.org/Page.aspx?pid=913