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BNZ confidence survey shows NZ breathing 'sigh of relief' that recession is not deeper
The latest BNZ Confidence Survey was further indication that New Zealanders are breathing a "sigh of relief" at the avoidance of an especially deep recession scenario, BNZ Chief Economist Tony Alexander said.
The New Zealand economy is likely to remain in recession through the June and September quarters, according to the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, also released on Tuesday. Official figures show the economy contracted 1% in the March 2009 quarter, following contractions of 1% in the December quarter, 0.5% in September, 0.2% in June, and 0.3% in the first quarter of 2008.
A net 15% of respondents to BNZ's Confidence Survey for July said they expected the New Zealand economy to improve in the next year.
"This is down slightly from a net 18% positive in June and record 27% in May but the minor pullback is consistent with our interpretation of recent results being a "sigh of relief" at the avoidance of an especially deep recession scenario," Alexander said.
"avoidance of an especially deep
"avoidance of an especially deep recession scenario" really! What about an acceptance of an especially prolonged period of recession. You know, stagflation! What about decades of bloated housing debt sucking the cash out of family incomes for the profit of the banks? Interest rates in the high teens for a decade at least? What about a govt slashing services and hiking taxes for two decades?
A "sigh of relief" strikes
A "sigh of relief" strikes me as a little early...fools rush in where angels fear to tread....
Wally: a mind set, ppl have got used to good times, they dont believe it can stop....they, unlike their parents/grandparents didnt face a Great Depression...So if in your life you only know things that get better, and are promised its so by the Pollies then downsides are impossible to understand or contemplate.......I dont know if interest rates will be in the teens....so far if Japan is any indication its low interest rates....thats why we have all these japanese housewives buying bonds from NZ, they get 0.25% there or 5% plus here....Hence why Ive stuck to a floating mortgage, Im going with a long term OCR...I could be proved wrong of course, but at least Ive been allowed to choose....The Govn and RB is also complaining about the floating being too high...so it might yet drop...I think Ive made the right choice....to lose money rates would have to start rising today at 1% per annum and do so for 5 years in order to be worse off than someone who fixed at 7.5%~8%....its more likely we will stay at <3% til end 2010...
regards
Bearing in mind the OCR
Bearing in mind the OCR has changed 5.75% in the last one year. Who would ever have guessed?
I hate to pour cold
I hate to pour cold water into New Zealanders warm bath right now. But I am convinced that this is just a pause in the long journey down to the bottom. The current recovery sentiment is a reaction to a stockmarket rebound caused by the trillion of dollars thrown at the depression (yes some have started calling this a depression but with a small D) and by most poeple in the Financial Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector of the economy talking it up.
The next phase will come within the year end with :
1. higher interest rates
2.A depreciated NZ$ (when the USD crash due to the Treasury bubble bursting)
3. Higher energy and food price when money flee all fiat currency and seek commodities as a hedge
4. Continued asset deflation when consumers finally cannot continue their current consumption pattern anymore.
Cheers
and have a nice day.
Good luck Steven, I have
Good luck Steven, I have a feeling you will need it.
Its nice to hear some
Its nice to hear some optimism BUT....I think its unfounded false hope
In my work in the development sector I cannot see ANY green shoots at this stage.
Things don't seem to be getting worse but they are just stagnating, and the longer it keeps just stagnating the more pressure I am seeing on people getting laid off.
I think things WILL start to slowly improve by the end of the year, but I think things will be slow for a year or two more at least, and then I'm convinced we will never be back to the boom times of old. I'm sure in the future we will look back at the period 02-07 and just view it as one big unprecedented gold rush
Time for everyone to pack
Time for everyone to pack up and go home. Sorry folks, the big party is over. By God we drank, we gorged ourselves sick, we spent like there was no tomorrow. Another house, another car, another farm, another overseas trip, hell honey I just got the new valuations, we are worth another $150,000, bugger it lets get that new boat and OK you can get your boob job. THE END.
well done bobby, but is
well done bobby, but is this a repeatable binge/the end/build back up big party that you talk about?