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Special report: The OCR cut: what it means for interest rates in NZ

Posted in News

Bernard Hickey has a closer look at the 50 basis point cut in the Official Cash Rate to 2.50% this morning, and what it could mean for mortgage and term deposit rates. See our mortgage rates page here. For term deposit rates less than one year, see here. For term deposit rates one year and more, see here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

Bernard This what I think,

Bernard

This what I think, Alert: 30/04/09:

http://www.omo.co.nz/

Once again Bollard proves he

Once again Bollard proves he dont have the slightest idea what hes doing. All the other rate cuts didnt help this one is bound to... I wonder if his ancestors were in charge of a WWI trench.

The Borderless Banking Empire will

The Borderless Banking Empire will not pass on the rate cuts now that their co-opearatives are back in place and their is no political will to have KiwiBank keep them in check by way of competition. KiwiBank is our lifeline to eventual financial sovereignty, if it goes we will quite possably remain a colony in servitude for good if this insanity is allowed to continue.

Can someone please comment on

Can someone please comment on how the OCR cut/A Bollards statement will effect property prices in NZ?.

@Glenn Insignificantly compared with unemployment

@Glenn
Insignificantly compared with unemployment

Iain Parker - you seem

Iain Parker - you seem to be getting more allies for your financial/economic sovreignty argument:

http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/04/29/reserve-bank-to...

Question still remains, of how to get engagement and change?

The whole banking system is

The whole banking system is heading for Nationalisation precisely because of the hole it is being dug into by the Reserve Banks.

Interest Rates are meant to reflect the balance between people's willingness to save and the demand for finance. Cutting interest rates in response to every crisis is only going to lead to the extension and entrenching of malinvestment in the economy; none of which will be with "saved" money, but with borrowed and newly created money. It is going to lead only to further reductions in productivity and further crises.

Not that the nationalisation of the banks, when it comes, is going to solve this problem, on the contrary..........

Rich people and the WISE

Rich people and the WISE will just move offshore...

BOLLARDS will make sure that the last SOLVENT person leaving, switches the lights out...cos there is no actual POINT in investing & working here and no one else will be able to afford the ELECTRICITY.

(and That is GUARANTEED....unlike the electricity supply).

Might as well go where the FUN is.

NZ is a small cog...pretty much like UK.

Phil Best - you have

Phil Best - you have in that post just exposed, for all your long cut and paste jobs, that it would appear you have actually read very few of them, because that post displays a complete lack of understanding of the modern banking system put in place since the Goldsmiths scam was busted in 1600's.
When the banking industry itself admits that currently 97% of the worlds money supply enters circulation as interest bearing credit, to suggest the basis for the charging of interest is any longer anything to do with the risk to savers of redistributing there savings for forward economic expansion is as about as lame as the old Bob Jones war cry of "despite what the funny money people say(Social Credit),everyone knows banks only relend their deposits".
After the Goldsmiths were busted loaning out more paper receipts at interest than they had gold to honour there lendings the abitrary rulers of the time legalised and co-operated in the scam in return for money to keep them in power. However when representative government finally prevailed it was realised that the increased money supply from their fraud had actually expanded the economy and raised living standards for a period until the desparity of wealth gained by the fraudsters turned the wider populous into debt slaves as they used their booty to monopolise commerce. The beneficial prospects of the process of credit creation were realised, but how was it to be ensured who ever had control of the power of credit creation would use it for public good and not abuse for public extortion.
Those that had run the scam suggested as they have the expertise that they be put in charge of administration of banking with an aim to issuing credit in a prudent manner for the public good. For which any interest charged on the created money supply would be at a rate that covered infrastructure costs plus a fair and reasonable reward for the administrative service.
To prevent the risk of the system once again being used against the people, the peoples representatives would have the power to regulate the banking sector.
From that time on the battle between inherantly slaveminded bankers and regulators has ensued. When regulation is in decent hands, credit serves the populous, the charging of interest is equal to service. When regulation is in indecent hands, excess created credit to repayment ability is issued and interest becomes enslaving payments of tribute.

Phil there is nothing morally or ethically wrong with the process of credit creation, it is just that every regulatory government protection that the private bankers put forward in the international inquiries and royal commissions of the 1930's and 50's and most every decade since, as the reason it was still safe in their hands have slowly but surely been dismantled by political favour passed in reward for political donations of the banking sector.
The indecent elements that control the international credit creation system at present and their paid off politacal co-opearatives have abused the system to enslave the masses in debt. We are currently being sold the line that it is our own greedy fault, thus it is the masses that must suffer and pay reparation.
I say it is time we elect decent representatives that can once again be trusted with control of the created credit mechanism for public good and that the fraudsters should lose the ill-gotten gains in the debt realignment that needs to occur to prevent the world devolving back to a raw animal state of shear survival.

Less Rudd - as for

Less Rudd - as for engagement and change. NZ has a very proud record of credit reforming institutions, the international Labour Movement and indeed the NZ Labour Party were founded on the ideals of reforming the privately controlled slave-minded banking system to one of decency, later the Credit Reform Party led By John A Lee after he was kicked out of the Labour Party for vehemently protesting when Walter Nash surrendered to threats of economic sanctions by the English bankers and desisted in NZ using their own public credit facilities as they had in the building of the State Housing Project. The Social Credit Party was also a break away from the Labour Party at the same time for the same reasons, but they followed the ideas of a gentleman by the name of C H Dougals.
But, although we have had a very proud and long history of the fight to stand up to the borderless banking empire, the fight has been a very fragmented one. The credit reformers of this nation have expended much energy fighting among themselves as to just what needs to be done. The Social Credit Party made a grave error in changing their name and entering the Alliance Party after being ridiculed in a relentless campaign by Bob Jones and his media mates. Where if they had stuck to their guns they would almost surely advanced from the position of third most popular party which they held for decades averaging around 12% of the vote.
It would be great to hold a meeting of the factions of credit reformers in this country and see if we cant get a consensus of minds and efforts at a time of clear and present danger at time when it is needed more than any other in the short history of this nation.

Iain - many thanks, very

Iain - many thanks, very educational..

Certainly some sort of reform seems required in this space and thoughts initially go along the lines of appropriately capitalising Kiwibank to provide appropriate cost of cap. relief/competition for business loans - a practical first step. Which would be best done with a suitable inflation control method, as I and others have discussed elsewhere on this website. (We couldn't be confident of the OCR to restrain any resultant inflation retrace.) See:

http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/04/16/special-report-...

Anyway, if you've not already seen it, also see:

http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/05/01/agriculture-len...

Cheers, Les.

Stephen Hulme calls it right

Stephen Hulme calls it right yet again - the price of Bollard's folly ....

"Alert: 1/05/09 - NZ taxpayers become the first casualty of Dr Bollard's imprudent intention to cap the OCR at or below 2.5% until the later part of 2010."

Read the full details here:

http://www.omo.co.nz/

Iain Said: "Phil there is

Iain Said:
"Phil there is nothing morally or ethically wrong with the process of credit creation, it is just that every regulatory government protection that the private bankers put forward in the international inquiries and royal commissions of the 1930's and 50's and most every decade since, as the reason it was still safe in their hands have slowly but surely been dismantled by political favour passed in reward for political donations of the banking sector."

I have to disagree with that statement Iain their is something immoral and unethical about the current process of credit creation with or without government regulation.

Allowing a sytem where by those in power can borrow money into existence and hereby inflate the money supply violates a long established principle that in order for something to act as money it must be a good store of value this principle flows from the fact that in order for me to accept money from you in return for my goods and services, I need to be able to turn around in the future and purchase goods and services using that same money.

If the money can't store value over time and is in fact losing value via inflation then the individuals in society will always find themselves in a never ending spiral of trying to get rid of their money as quickly as possible and at the same time those individuals will need to be finding ways in which they can increase their household income lest they fall out of the middle class and into the poor underclass.

Their is no real difference between an inflation rate of 5% per annum and one of 500% per annum. Just because you can't see a process happening in real time doesn't mean its not happening. A mountain can still be growing even if you can't see it.

If you are going to make the argument that the NZD or the USD is a good store of value then I would be forced to call you a BOB JONES since you are making a false statement that is just as ridiculous as his claim.

The USD has lost 95% of its value since the inception of the federal reserve in 1913, at the same time look what has happened to the family income, their was a time that one income could support a family, today both parents must work to maintain the family, whats next will the children have to work as well??

The US inflation has already happened, note just because the price inflation hasn't happened doesn't mean the money supply inflation hasn't already happened. Look at the federal reservers balance sheet they have been buying all sorts of toxic assets for the last year I think its now 2 Trillion USD. Ben Bernanke thinks that once he starts to see price inflation he can reign it in by selling all those toxic assets and hereby soaking up all those dollars. Once again I call Ben Bernanke a BOB JONES since he also is making a ridiculous claim. In order to soak up the dollars he will need to sell those toxic assets for the SAME price he paid for them, thats a mighty big assumption on the part of a man who has been wrong about the economy far more times than he's been right, remember this is Ben "subprime is contained" Bernanke!!!

Iain, I know what you

Iain, I know what you are saying. But I still believe that the interest rate that banks can charge has to relate to the rate at which people will lend to them; i.e. save; and the rate of inflation.

I certainly agree that there needs to be tighter limits to how much new credit can be created; this new credit has to be linked at all times to a "base" of actual earned and saved money. We are now seeing the most absurd extremes of de-linkage, as a result, ironically, of political "rescue" of the system.

DavidC has a point. I find the arguments of the people who support the gold standard and the free market in money to be persuasive. I very much doubt that "sovereign" banking would be a blessing, seeing what politicians get up to again and again. I mean, look at the current time. We desperately need a new base of earned and saved money; but no-one, no-one, high up in political circles is talking about how to achieve this. It is all "we are going to fix this, us, the messiah politicians, by printing money and borrowing money"; i.e., by taking the excesses that have got us in trouble in the first place to new heights. I don't see that having a "sovereign" bank will make any difference to these fatal conceits. We will just swap one clever, self-serving cabal, for another, stupid, self-deluding cabal. At least the first cabal was vested in having people earn and save as much as possible; you need a base to inflate from. But the second cabal that is most likely to eventuate shows no understanding whatsoever of that necessity.

But living with the imperfections of what we have got, what I particularly object to at the current time, is that the monetary bubble has affected houses rather than investment markets in which people voluntarily risk their own savings or borrowing. I can live with people being stupid and losing out on flutters on the sharemarket. I object deeply to young friends of mine watching house prices rise far faster than they can save money, mortgaging themselves to the eyeballs to get on the train, then going bankrupt. All because some conservation mania dictated that sections are to be drip-fed onto the market at $300,000 each instead of being freely available to anyone who wants to do a deal with a land owner, at $30,000 each. That is the "peoples sovereignty" I want to see established; peoples sovereignty over the freedom to buy land and build homes.

David C - apoligies, sometimes

David C - apoligies, sometimes when you write things in haste in the middle of the night with your eyes hanging out of your head they dont come out quite right. I am on the same page when it comes to what you cover above. What I meant is there is nothing wrong with a fiat currency system as long as the created currency monetary base is spent into circulation in sustainable productive prudent manner. This it would not be the cause of inflation because it does not enter circulation as compound interest bearing debt at the base as it does now. I explain my thesis more fully here;
http://socialcreditorbust.blog.co.nz/solutions%20for%20credit%20crisis/

Phil its a pity I

Phil its a pity I have little time right now, I feel that a number of very insightful people on this site are moving towards a skeletal consensus. I agree with you that in some nations more land could be made available without over loading their ability to feed and shelter themselves, but would you agree that there are nations that have currently gone beyond that point?

I too feel the "skeletal

I too feel the "skeletal consensus", Iain.

Would you agree that there are very few nations that have currently gone beyond that point? I read somewhere (Bjorn Lomborg?) that if Tasmania were built out at Hong Kong density, all 6.5 billion humans could live there.

I think that humanity could afford to spread out a bit more and utilise the resource-rich regions that are badly utilised today. I reckon NZ could provide affordable housing for about 30 million people and still have a substantial agricultural export surplus. If NZ ever got invaded and taken over by a totalitarian power, this would happen.

I strongly agree with the central thesis of Julian Simon's book, "The Ultimate Resource". The ultimate resource is people. A kind of companion argument to Julian Simon's, is George Reisman's "Environmentalism Refuted" - the guy's intellect is colossal. Human ingenuity results in better and better utilisation of the earth's resources.

http://www.mises.org/story/661

I have precised George Reisman's amazing intellectual argument on the subject of the earth's resources as follows (but I still recommend everyone reads the whole essay).

We have actually barely begun to prospect the entire surface of the earth, and under the sea bed, for all known resources.
As mankind becomes more technically advanced, he discovers uses for more and more resources. Many of the resources we use most today, we did not use at all until we discovered how to use them.
There is no reason to believe that we have come to an end of that process. That is, we will yet discover resources that give us even more power over our well-being than the resources we currently make use of.
The more capital accumulated by mankind, the more access we get to resources. We can drill deeper, extract elements more efficiently, access the resources under the sea bed, and so on.
Furthermore, that accumulation of capital underpins the research and technological progress that bring ever more resources within our purvey, and anything that restricts or harms that process of accumulation of capital, will have an effect of "self fulfilling prophesy" regarding resources.
Apart from what has been blasted into space, every molecule in every substance "used" by man, is still here and will be able to be re-cycled one day; a lot of it has merely been re-ordered to man's advantage meanwhile. Even every carbon molecule that has been burnt to extract energy, returns to the biosystem after a short time in the atmosphere, and will be able to be accessed again for the purpose of energy, by our descendants at some time in the future.
Although Reisman does not say so, it is such a beautiful system, I think some very intelligent designer must have had a hand in it!

Linked to this thread somehow

Linked to this thread somehow and find myself firmly on the same page. I watched the very popular movie 'Zeitgeist' on youtube and so many questions about the process of the current economic system became clear. I was horrified that greedy financiers were propped up by taxpayer dollars which will then be lent back to same taxpayers at interest. I am not Christian but Christ despised usary and it is strictly forbidden in the Muslim faith. We need to be rid of the debt-based system.

No debt , no credit

No debt , no credit facilities , and it's back to horse & buggies , mud huts , decades of grinding poverty for all of us ; except for the landed gentry , royalty , and politicians . And as much as I'd love to see bankers and car salesman bite the dust , I don't wish for the rest of us to join them . ( Christ biffed the usurers out of the temple , the worship house , not out of the town entirely )

The cut will encourage the

The cut will encourage the growth of our housing bubble and the cost of imports like oil (on the rise) and food. I see nothing but inflation in this.