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Business confidence improves in April, but outlook remains negative
Business confidence in New Zealand seemed to show a "marked improvement" in April from March, National Bank Chief Economist Cameron Bagrie said.
The latest National Bank Business Outlook survey showed a net 15% of respondents expected deterioration in the general economy over the next 12 months, compared to net 39% in March.
"This turnaround is the largest monthly improvement since December 2000," Bagrie said.
"Could this be the first steps of a recovery taking hold "” the much talked about green shoots? We would dearly like to believe that it is. After all, the economy has been in recession since early 2008, and we are possibly in the midst of the sixth straight quarterly contraction in economic activity "” the longest negative streak since the 1970s," he said.
Yet despite tentatively asking whether green shoots may be starting to show through the cracks, Bagrie said "it would be naïve to believe the economy is on the cusp of economic nirvana."
"There are structural imbalances that have yet to be purged. Green shoots are fragile and, if not tended to properly, can quickly wilt."
The outlook for respondents' own activity improved, with only a net 4% of respondents expecting deterioration in their own firm's activity over the next year, compared to net 21% in March.
Investment intentions over the next year remained negative, with a net 12% of respondents saying they expected to invest less in their business over the next year. However, this was down from net 19% in March.
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The unemployment rate is still set to continue to rise, with a net 19% (net 28% in March) of business owners saying they expected to reduce the amount of employees they have over the year.
The news comes a day before Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard makes the next scheduled announcement on the Official Cash Rate. Expectations are for either a 25 basis point cut to 2.75%, or a 50 bp cut to 2.50%.
A net 2% of respondents said they expected interest rates will go lower over the next year, however this was down from a net 55% expecting them to do so in March.
"The unemployment rate is still
"The unemployment rate is still set to continue to rise, with a net 19% (net 28% in March) of business owners saying they expected to reduce the amount of employees they have over the year."
The above statement is the worrying one for me.
It there's few jobs out there now then it doesn't look like there will be many in six months from now either.
My question is whom or what constitutes the official unemployment figures?
Is the unemployment statistic based only on the number of people on the unemployment benefit , or by another means? Does it take into account the job pariticpation rate or the army of people in this country who work for themselves and are now travelling at less than full steam as the work has dried up or severely slowed down?
And it doesnt take into
And it doesnt take into a/c the youth who have left school, living at home,and not even Worth registering or in part time jobs ....
There is a lot of confidence in small service business...like Qualified mechanic workshops, who are picking up a lot of new work....but not rushing to employ more staff..yet.
It this not something Neville mentioned in one of his articles several months ago , where in England in the 1930s, these small business' did rather well, help pulling the country out of the doldrums?
This is mostly a good
This is mostly a good thing. I hope people will look more on the positive sides of things rather than only the negative effects of the recession. There's always a silver lining to every cloud, anyway. Small businesses, entrepreneurship and realty are thriving right now, people should take advantage of that.
Business confidence among the subsidiary
Business confidence among the subsidiary multinational corporations of the borderless banking empire with their eyes on monopolising the remaining necesities of life within NZ will have just increased massively as we move from a Commerce Commission Ceo who was a fair dinkum protector of the public good to one with a record of asset salesman. The nine pins are being lined up for knocking over;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/new-zealanders-of-the-year/news/article.cfm?c_... ( the old good Ceo ousted by John Key, the bankers favourite son)
http://www.barristerscomm.com/32.php( the new asset salesman appointed in her place)