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Analysis: How John Key secured a US$1 bln loan for New Zealand with a newspaper interview
By Bernard Hickey If John Key was still an investment banker, this deal would have earned him a big enough bonus to buy another bach at Omaha. As New Zealand Prime Minister he will receive nothing more than a thank-you from New Zealand's biggest bank and a quiet pat on the back from Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard. But John Key should get a good part of the credit for a deal that has paved the way for New Zealand's banks to start borrowing for long terms again on international markets. It's a deal that is unlikely to win him an election or even get him a mention on talkback radio, but it is a deal that makes New Zealand's banking system, and therefore the economy, that little bit safer. On Friday ANZ National confirmed it raised US$1 billion through an issue of government guaranteed three year bonds to US investors. In the days before the Credit Crunch froze credit markets in September last year this would have been an unremarkable announcement. Even now, most of the mainstream media ignored it. Fair enough. It's a long way from the real world, but actually not as far as many would think. Here's how the deal played out and why Key's comments in a newspaper interview turned out to be worth at least US$1 billion.
Back in July last year New Zealand's largest bank, ANZ National, raised US$2 billion with a five year bond issue to US investors. It was difficult and expensive even then, but another such bond issue became impossible after the collapse of Lehman Bros in September, which froze credit markets for months. By October governments all around the world were having to offer government guarantees for such bond issues because investors had lost faith in all banks. The New Zealand government, in the final days of Helen Clark and Michael Cullen, also offered such a guarantee. The cost of this wholesale guarantee was then set at 140 basis points. The assumption was that New Zealand banks would be able to use the wholesale guarantee reasonably quickly and reduce their vulnerability to a complete freeze on credit markets. For some time the Reserve Bank has been pushing the banks to borrow longer term offshore than the 30-90 days that banks are using currently to roll over their foreign debt, which makes up about 40% or NZ$94 billion of the banks' total funding of NZ$234 billion. The longer it took for banks to refinance on terms of three years or more, the greater the vulnerability of New Zealand's banking system. The quicker the banks could start borrowing long term the better. The details of the wholesale guarantee were announced on November 1. The parent Australian banks started using the Australian government guarantee heavily just before Christmas. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard expressed confidence in early December that New Zealand banks would be able to use the guarantee soon. Then...nothing...until a bombshell. On January 13 Standard and Poor's revised the outlook on New Zealand's AA+ sovereign credit rating to negative because of our rising twin deficits (current account deficit and budget deficit). In the eyes of international investors New Zealand sovereign guaranteed debt, like that to be issued by banks, was damaged goods. New Zealand had to demonstrate that it was going to get its public debt under control if it wanted to keep that credit rating. International investors lumped us in the same basket as Ireland, Spain and a host of others on notice of a downgrade. Since then, every decision in cabinet, every razor gang and every cap on core public sector staff numbers has been aimed at reassuring Standard and Poor's that New Zealand should keep its credit rating. A downgrade would have the immediate effect of increasing New Zealand interest rates. A few weeks after the downgrade warning, Bollard and Treasury Secretary John Whitehead jumped on a plane to reassure international investors ahead of any guaranteed bank bond issues. A clearly exhausted and flu-racked Bollard told reporters on his return that he was confident New Zealand would keep its credit rating and that the banks would be able to raise money with the guaranteed bonds. Treasury even cut the fee for the wholesale guarantee to 90 basis points from 140 basis points to make sure the bonds could be issued. And then....nothing. Weeks went by. Some bankers began to think a guaranteed bond issue would not be possible until the budget on May 28 at the earliest. This is the earliest that Standard and Poor's could give New Zealand the tick. Finance Minister Bill English would have to prove in that budget that the public debt track is under control, rather than rising forever into the forecasting distance as it was in the pre-Christmas budget forecast. Under this scenario, New Zealand would have been locked out of the inernational long term debt markets for almost a year. Then something either lucky or very well orchestrated happened. Prime Minister John Key gave an interview on the 9th floor of the Beehive to Mary Kissel, the editorial page editor of the Wall St Journal Asia. Key took a quite different approach to dealing with the recession than he had in his comments up until then to the New Zealand media. He said inflation was his biggest fear and he saw no point in the government trying to borrow and spend its way out of a recession. Here's a taste.
That's "risky," Mr. Key says (of borrow and spend). "You've saddled future generations with an enormous amount of debt that then they have to repay," he explains. "There is actually a limit to what governments can do." "Economic theory will tell you that inflation is going to rise -- and that inflation will be exported around the world. . . . In the short term, I'm not criticizing U.S. policy: I think inflation is probably the thing that's going to be necessary to get them out of the current issue. [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke sort of signaled that. But longer term, inflation is cancerous to your economy"
It turned out this was music to the ears of international investors worried about too much borrowing, too much money printing and too much inflationary risk. Many in the Northern Hemispher are deeply sceptical of the Barack Obama/Gordon Brown approach to dealing with the Great Recession. John Key stood out as a Prime Minister who was a fiscal conservative at a time of fiscal spendthrifts. His pitch to this crucial audience was just right, as was the vehicle of the Wall St Journal. This certainly wasn't the Key we heard before the election, or the one who had said at various stages late last year and early this year that the government would play a large role in boosting the economy. But it was the right Key at the right time. And it was a view consistent with a more fiscally conservative Bill English. Last week ANZ National CEO Graham Hodges went to the United States for a roadshow to promote this US$1 billion bond issue. Its success was no sure thing. Time and again, Hodges says, investors told him Key's interview in the Wall St Journal had reassured them, despite the uncertainty of a potential credit rating downgrade. Sometimes it's a struggle to get foreign investors to look past the shorthand of credit ratings and the headlines of research notes. Key's interview made them sit up and take notice. Hodges said it seemed to strike a chord. It turns out the interview was a crucial factor in the success of the bond issue, the first long term issue by a New Zealand bank since July last year. It is likely to set the tone for more. The Reserve Bank will breathe a little easier. We can be a little bit more confident that if the world's financial markets were to shut down completely, which they did for a few weeks in September and early October, then our banks would not be forced to shut down their lending. John Key may well have already earned his salary for this year. No bonus though. They're not so popular in this day and age.
46 Comments
Thank you, John Key.
Thank you, John Key.
I have to say, I
I have to say, I felt the same way when I read that interview. It was refreshing to hear the Austrian voice of sanity rise above all the panic and chaos of the Keynesians. The interview was a bit of an internet meme, so it's nice to hear that there was some positive effect on the backside.
Yes... Thank you.. It looks
Yes... Thank you.. It looks like John Key is grounded ... and has a common sense understanding of economics and debt and how it relates to everyday life... Bill English seems to be like that as well.
That can't be said for the decision makers in the USA and Britain... What they are doing seems to stem from a mixture of ignorance and corruptness.
One cannot argue with "international
One cannot argue with "international investors worried about too much borrowing, too much money printing and too much inflationary risk"
It raises the question: Where are these major investors most likely to put their capital?
Why buy T Bills in the US and the UK when you can buy commodity producers and the associated industries and transport infrastructure?
It seems as though we have a back to the future event here with China today, taking the place of America circa 1909!
If Key's interview did indeed
If Key's interview did indeed influence the decision making process, then it is safe to assume that the due diligence conducted by the billion dollar investors was limited to what they read in the WSJ (and maybe what the discredited ratings agencies advised them). Otherwise, the smallest amount of research would have alerted them to the very different song Key has been singing to the NZ public (and his track record) and they would not have cited the interview as such.
And these people are going to save the world? God help us all.
I don't yet know if
I don't yet know if John Key is a good Prime Minister but he does what he does best, and I respect that. I'm sure John wasn't just ASKED to be interviewed.
...and who said this won't get him re-elected?
You give him far, far,
You give him far, far, far too much credit. I gather that the delay in overseas bond issues is because the approval process for the govt guarantee takes weeks (as opposed to hours in Australia). Nearly six months after the guarantee was introduced, and the Treasury is only now hiring people to administer the damned thing.
Miguel Graham Hodges is the
Miguel
Graham Hodges is the guy who gave him the credit. He was the guy who had to sell it. He was the one who tramped around the US talking to these people. I'm actually surprised it was placed at all given the uncertainty around the credit rating.
cheers
Bernard
Bernard Whilst the outcome and
Bernard
Whilst the outcome and processes involved are to be recognised as a pragmatic and skilled financial and political operation by John Key, for me the critical issue here is detailed in your 4th paragraph.
Mainstream media did not think (a) this was a newsworthy story = sell newspapers (b) that the average punter would be interested. This is power to the value of interest.co.nz and the power of smart professional "citizen journalism".
Interesting article, Bernard. However there
Interesting article, Bernard. However there is less to the original WSJ interview than I had hoped. Where did the journalist, Mary Kissel, get her facts?:
"Mr. Key is returning the country to a formula for prosperity that's worked in the
past. As in Britain, the U.S. and Australia in the 1980s, New Zealand's government
implemented a wide-ranging program of economic liberalization, including deep
reductions in tariffs and subsidies, and privatization of state-run industries. The
plan, nicknamed "Rogernomics" after then-Finance Minister (now Sir) Roger
Douglas, was akin to Reaganomics, and the island nation grew smartly.
"But while the U.S. and Australia broadly continued their economic liberalization
programs under both right- and left-wing governments, New Zealand didn't -- until
now. Over the past nine years, Helen Clark's left-wing Labour government rode the
global economic expansion and used the revenue surge to expand government
welfare programs, renationalize industries, and embrace causes like global warming.
As a result, the economy stagnated while Australia took off."
Actually there was no economic growth for at least 7 years after 1984. (Dec '84 GDP index = 109, Dec '91 index = 111). Her judgement of the Labour government has aspects of truth to it, although it is pretty one-sided, and I wouldn't say that the economy "stagnated" for 9 years (27.2% real GDP growth in the 7 years 2001-2008), nor that they embraced global warming. If the phrase "rode the global economic expansion" were altered to "rode the global credit binge", it might be closer to the truth.
So how is Mr Key going to deliver productivity growth?
" "Good regulatory reform can be an important catalyst toward driving economic growth
and coming out of the recession faster," Mr. Key says."
What do you think, Bernard?
Robert, Good points. I'm less
Robert,
Good points. I'm less interested in Kissel than what Key said.
I think the jury is still very out on whether National can lift productivity.
I've been encouraged today though by the broadband announcement, which looks promising in a pragmatic nuts and bolts way.
cheers
Bernard
Bernard I do not think
Bernard
I do not think broadband computer connnections will in anyway help towards reducing the cost of making widgets in this country compared to the cost of those made in China, for instance.
Allowing non-productive types like myself faster access to image downloads when really top quality text based info can be transferred for next to no extra capital outlay seems ludicrous.
All that extra money needs to be invested in robotised factories specialising in import substitution output if we are ever going to reduce the C/A deficit.
Not easy, I know.
Stephen, What if we make
Stephen,
What if we make digital widgets here and export them to the rest of the world through broadband? Couldn't that work better than making actual widgets?
In fact, that's what my wife does. She makes digital designs for photographers and sells them through a US website to family photographers around the world. She's working part time from home doing this and makes more money than I do! And I'm doing OK with this wildly successful website!
As an exporter she cares an awful lot about the exchange rate. But she cares most about upload speeds through our broadband connections. The current low upload speed is a major restraint to her business.
There are countless other ways to export services via broadband. Translation work. Legal work. Media work (Peter Jackson had to get a special connection to Los Angeles to do the Lord of the Rings Movies). So much can be done online. We're in the right timezone with the right language.
If only we had decent broadband. It would also allow more people to work from home and I suspect increase both productivity and total labour output because more people would join the workforce.
But I'm talking my book a bit because better broadband is better for this business too...
cheers
Bernard
Bernard The statistical chance, in
Bernard
The statistical chance, in a population of ~4.0 million, of producing people as talented as your wife is a long tail outcome. Same with Jackson.
We need to start making the everyday things we all consume rather than importing them.
And entertainment will be a low priority item except for the unemployed or umemployable.
Bernard Here is the reason
Bernard
Here is the reason that productivity growth in NZ has been so dismal (see top p2):
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/49/45/24236156.pdf
Axing R+D tax credits to fund consumer tax cuts and appointing a lawyer as Minister of Research, Science + Technology (well, evidently he does like reading scifi) is difficult to reconcile with Key's intention of "growing the nation out of recession by improving productivity" (WSJ)
Bernard - I saw the
Bernard - I saw the comments from Graham Hodges, but you weren't exactly skimping on the praise either.
Also, I have to say that Scott is spot-on with his comments. It;s clear that people have learnt nothing from the last two years - credit research is still treated as the red-headed stepchild, and investors still rely on the likes of the long-discredited rating agencies to do their thinking for them.
Stephen The examples of faster
Stephen
The examples of faster broadband and its advantages made by Bernard are good but as your reply suggests, you consider such endeavors to be insignificant to the average NZer.
For average NZers I would agree (for such consumer related activities). Although, the benefits of greater connectivity between office and field based work are enormous! Specifically for natural resource management: i.e. access to land-cover databases (and associated maps) for the entire country from a single system-administrator point. Allowing field maps to be updated in real time for all users (showing the spread of a fire line, the progress of a harvesting operation, or any activity which have associated management decisions that influence health and safety). Currently this tool is not available in NZ, but is in Victoria and NSW - where it can save lives.
Not 100% relevant to the topic at hand but faster broadband will be enjoyed, in some way, by every NZer. Not including the ability to download media goods faster.
Cheers,
Luke
Spending $1.5billion taxpayer dollars we
Spending $1.5billion taxpayer dollars we don't have - to 'super-size' an already adequate private sector service we do have - is plain stupid.
To those few folks who need this 'super-sized' broadband in their place of residence for productive work, I would suggest they relocate their residence to an area where the private sector provides access to the faster services.
Using Peter Jackson's requirements as a means of legitimation for a $1.5b taxpayer spend is wearing very thin.
Luke Nice tool. I have
Luke
Nice tool. I have a laptop controlled autonomous MAV and would dearly love to able to use my vodafone data card to transmit captured video to anywhere in the world. But at a dollar a Mb, no show.
It's all a matter of costs versus priorities as Kate duly notes.
Stephen, I'll avoid passing on
Stephen,
I'll avoid passing on the description of my wife as the fat tail...
I know what you mean.
My wife is special, but I bet there's an amazing well-spring of talent and ideas out there that will use that connection to massive markets (without having to use ships and planes) to do useful things that will earn foreign exchange.. My wife had no idea she could make money out of designing digital elements for scrapbookers until she spent a lot of time online 'mucking around'.
She did that mucking around in Singapore with a decent broadband connection.
I'm a believer I'm afraid. An occupational hazard for someone building a business online.
Who would have thought 10 years ago that a company called Google would have revolutionised an 'already mature' Internet within a few years and now be worth over US$100 billion.
Do we really think that building widgets here in New Zealand at a higher price than we can import them is the solution? Has the law of comparative advantage stopped working?
cheers
Bernard
Bernard notes: Has the law
Bernard notes:
Has the law of comparative advantage stopped working?
Yes!
We need to get back to production basics. We can no longer afford to borrow 4 dollars for every dollar of GDP.
And there are many well qualified people in other areas of the world prepared to do anything we can just about imagine at a fraction of the cost we wish to be renumerated for.
Just a 2009 idea. Why
Just a 2009 idea.
Why Not Start Your Weekend on Wednesday? ;-)
http://www.slate.com/id/2207406/
Since when did "comparative advantage"
Since when did "comparative advantage" become a "law" anyway?
It is a serious problem when we refer to economic theories in terms that imply it (ecomonics) rivals physics. Economics sadly offers no such 'universal truths'.
"Comparative advantage" - we could just as easily consider it another platitude of hubris serving the ideology of globalisation.
Bernard, I've seen "comparative advantage"
Bernard,
I've seen "comparative advantage" described as the theory of comparative advantage.
At this point in time it sounds more like dogma to me than anything like a law.
If you google on "comparative advantage" +debunk you can find there are a few people who don't believe in the dogma.
For example, http://www.aph.gov.au/library/Pubs/RB/2004-05/05rb12.htm seems to lay out both sides of the argument.
For more reading on the debate on this "law" you can see
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/nyt-doesnt-get-it-on-trade.html?w...
or this snippet
"Krugman's work, especially in strategic trade policy and the new international economics, argues against one of economics' most sacred tenets, the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage. Under it, economists have long held that free trade "equalized" the benefits of differences among countries, with only each country's specific "comparative advantage"--of land, skilled (or cheap) labor, technology, and so on--determining what a country eventually will produce.
Krugman's "new view" has shown in detail--commonsensical, though revolutionary for economists--that the location of production is substantially arbitrary and that historical location of industries, national policies like taxation and technology training, and economies of scale all help determine where industries are located throughout the world. Yet as a good neoclassical, Krugman recoils from many of the implications of his revisionism. "
from http://www3.hi.is/~joner/eaps/ssi.htm
Stephen, True it’s a matter
Stephen,
True it's a matter of costs verses priorities. Simply because not all of the public will directly benefit from such a spend, doesn't mean it wont increase incomes (or standard of living / competitive advantage "“ take your jargon pick). My day is not made any easier when billions are spent improving the Auckland transit system "“ but I accept it benefits the country as a whole. Maybe if we could physically see/touch/taste the outcome of the $1.5bn then it would be a different story for those judging its merits.
For the argument on competitive
For the argument on competitive advantage"¦ its misleading to get hung up on the term "law", it simply is an expression which describes that some countries have a clear and documented ability to produce certain goods cheaper and faster than other countries (hardly an out-there theory these days).
As for "getting back to production basics", like many others (those who write here I suspect), I have put in the effort and become one of these "qualified people" and do not want to sit back and make WIDGETS for the rest of my life (while most likely "˜taking' the world price for such a low valued product might I add)! Nor do I want to live in London/North America/Australia the rest of my life "“ I want the same job opportunities at home as there are abroad. This could be possible if NZ was connected to the rest of the world through such hi-speed broadband.
On a side note I have no affiliation with Peter Jackson.
FYI The NBR's David Cohen
FYI The NBR's David Cohen has commented on this story here.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/david-cohen/john-keys-billion-dollar-interview
We're big fans here of administering link love!
cheers
Bernard
yes a true smiling assassin,
yes a true smiling assassin, say one thing to the dumb voters and another to the smart financers
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