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Top 10 links: Bank of England to print money; Eurozone GDP slump; GM 'not viable'; Dumb elephant herd idea

Posted in News

Here's my top 10 links from around the Internet for the last 24 hours or so. I welcome your favourites in the comments below. Just cut and paste in the URLs. No need for fancy code.

New 1996 lows

The Dow and the S&P 500 slumped overnight by another 4% to 1996 lows. Here's the carnage on Gloomberg.

Here's a taste.

"People are abandoning equities as an asset class," says Scott Minerd, who helps oversee about $30 billion as chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners Asset Management in Santa Monica, California. "The market is trying to cope with the idea of lower earnings prospects and that the economy won't turn around in the near term."

Crank it up 

The Bank of England cut its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 0.5% overnight and announced a plan to buy back up to 150 billion pounds worth of government and corporate bonds in a quantitative easing often described as 'money printing'. Here's more in FT.com.

Your thoughts? I wonder what this does for economic confidence overall. It's a sign of desperation and I don't think Britain has a deflation problem yet. Should New Zealand do the same? Our current poll results (top right) suggest most people think not.

Eu rozone debacle

The European Central Bank cut its official rate by 50 basis points to a record low 1.5% and forecast a 2.7% fall in Eurozone GDP output this year, which was worse than its December forecast for a 0.5% contraction. Here's more in WSJ.com.

The European banking system and the Euro itself are wobbly. I reckon the main global grief we're going to see in the next month or two is going to emanate from the European continent (and Ireland).

Premature speculation

Meanwhile in China, Premier Wen Jiabao disappointed Western investors by not increasing the Chinese government's stimulus package in his set piece address to the Chinese version of parliament. Here's more in FT.com.

I worry about the Chinese stimulus plan. It's mostly about stimulating exports. Who will buy them? Won't this just drive down prices, cause deflation and we all know the rest. Some have compared this stimulus plan to a modern version of Smoot Hawley.

Downward Spiral (Great album (Nine Inch Nails) but bad for banks)

Moody's cut JP Morgan's ratings outlook to negative overnight and has put the ratings for Bank of America and Wells Fargo on review as the ratings agency is worried high credit costs and the deepening recession will increase bad loans. See more here at Bloomberg. Citigroup's shares fell briefly below US$1 to become a penny dreadful. How embarrassing.

No 'selling to buggery' for a while yet

The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) extended the ban on short selling stocks for almost 3 months to give banks, in particular, more breathing space against rumoured hedge fund attacks ready to go. More here in the Australian.  Regular readers may remember me pointing to this Sydney Morning Herald article from earlier this week that said hedge funds were ready to "sell the buggery" out of stocks in banks that "stuck out like dog's bollocks". There. I used the words "buggery" and "bollocks" for the fourth time on this website. Huzzah!

'Not a going concern'

General Motors' annual report notes its auditors don't believe it is a 'going conern'. What a debacle. It will ask for more money. Obama will give it, saying he has no choice. The paralysis will go on. Let the bad fail and get on with life. The bondholders in GM don't think the current plan is viable. They may be talking their books so as to get a bigger discount when their debt is converted to equity, but still, it's a mess. Here's this on Bloomberg.

Inflation is coming

U.S. government plans to spend more than $11.6 trillion to revive the economy are going to accelerate the pace of inflation and send raw-material prices surging, says Michael Pento, the chief economist at Delta Global Advisors, who correctly predicted last year's commodity collapse. Here's the excellent piece on Bloomberg. Click on the 'graphic' tag to see the chart.

Britain swallowed a python

Martin Wolf and the FT.com makes some interesting points about the scale of the bank assets now being insured by the UK taxpayer and speculates, quite fairly I think, about whether Britain will be bankrupted by these guarantees. Here's a taste.

The UK government looks increasingly like a python that has swallowed a hippopotamus. In acting as insurer of last resort to the British-based banking system, it is taking on huge risks on behalf of taxpayers. If this turned out to be a global depression, with huge losses for British-based banks, fiscal solvency might even come into question. Can this make sense? I doubt it.

The end of the tax haven and the shadow banking system

Stephen Bartholomeuz at Business Spectator has an interesting piece on how the mess around UBS' fine and disclosure of secret tax records is ballooning into full scale crackdown on tax havens and shadow banks by both the US and UK. Here's a taste. 

What started as a distracting, and costly, sideshow from the main event of sub-prime losses for Switzerland's biggest bank, UBS, is threatening to turn into a full-scale assault on tax havens that threatens the Swiss banking system, among others. It could also envelop even the "shadow banking system" that operates largely out of tax havens and which has been held responsible for contributing to the global financial crisis. 

It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people. 

And one rant: Can you believe our elected representatives?

At a time like this, I find it stunning that the city council is prepared to spend NZ$13.5 million of it's (and other government's) money on creating a herd of elephants at the Auckland Zoo. We need to reduce our spending. Not increase it on useless, pointless things that do nothing to generate wealth in the long run. Here's the story in the NZ Herald.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

May an ignoramus ask the

May an ignoramus ask the experts a question please? I have some cash in Barclay's in the UK, and some here in New Zealand. Would you leave it like that, or bring most of it here where I live when the exchange rate is favourable?

Rosemary, I'm no expert either,

Rosemary, I'm no expert either, but the consensus on this website for months has been that the UK is screwed. Some other advice would be to use a foreign currency firm - not a bank - to move your money, they're far cheaper.

On that story about the UK acting as lender of last resort - the four largest UK banks each have a value more than UK GDP. I cannot comprehend the scale.

"we must create effective mechanisms for orderly bankruptcy of very large financial institutions" This does seem to be a clear-cut lesson, are laws restricting market share of banks inevitable? Shouldn't they be getting passed into law right now?

Councils, like Gubmints, spend OPM.

Councils, like Gubmints, spend OPM. They can largely pencil in their revenue budgets and expect to pick up 98% of them. And if the bills don't get paid, there are quite a few Instruments of Coercion available to them.

So what Incentives are there in place to stop them spending other people's money?

Well, in the case of Councils, one could do worse than comment about their LTCCP's, currently out for comment, or close to it.

Because going John Galt don't work for Councils, which get their dosh from land and house values, only Gubmints, which get theirs from consumption and income taxes.

The Auckland City Council story

The Auckland City Council story is a classic - typical.

The reason the costs are $13.5m instead of less than $1m is because they are not simply replacing an existing asset (i.e. one elephant) but rather they have expanded the plan!!! With that comes a requirement for additional land, additional operating costs, and more than doubling the quantum of assets (from 2 to 5 elephants)!

If they just replaced the one elephant, with another one elephant - the cost would be less than $1m. And frankly - if they put out a begging bowl in front of the elephant enclosure - they'll raise that amount in loose change over the course of 1-2 years.

It never ceases to amaze me how politicians seem the worst offenders when it comes to ignorance around the fact that we really must change our ways.

Seems to me THAT THE

Seems to me THAT THE WEE MAN MOUTHPIECE ,SHOULD HAVE HIS FEET HELD TO THE FIRE?I WONDER IS HE THE ELEPHANT IN THE COUNCIL eg WHEN HIM AND HIS GANG VETOED THE SALE OF THE AIA SHARES LAST YEAR .NOW BUYING A HERD OF ELEPHANTS WHAT A DEBACLE ,his initials are JB and thats not JIM BEAM.

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2009/03/bank-of-england-pr

http://cynicuseconomicus.blogspot.com/2009/03/bank-of-england-printing-p...

"The inevitable has now happened....the Bank of England (BoE) is now starting a policy of 'Quantitative Easing' (QE) - or printing money to you or I. I first suggested that this was inevitably going to happen in July of last year, and predicted the circumstances of ever greater government borrowing as being the driver behind the policy. That is the current situation.

Since then, I have detailed two changes in policy that strongly suggest that the government/BoE were seeking to hide exactly what they were doing (see post here and here). However, it now appears that they are accepting that they must at least say something about what they are doing, and I will later analyse exactly what they are proposing. In the meantime, I will briefly explain the reasons that might provoke some concern over the policy, over and above the potential for hyper-inflation and potential collapse of the £GB (I will leave these out as many news sources outline these risks)."

Cynicus Economicus posting great stuff on the UK

And I name the new

And I name the new big white elephant: KiwiRail - whoops, been taken already.

Rosemary - Suggest you might

Rosemary - Suggest you might like to read 'Wake Up' by Jim Mellon & Al Chalabi (2005) in deciding where you would like to park your money. Then, specifically their latest news letter which you can subscribe to here
www.wakeupnewsletter.com
I guess it all depends on your time frame at the end of the day but good luck with making the decision.

Roubini now thinks global recession

Roubini now thinks global recession may extend to the end of 2010:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=ayVsI_55G8.0&refer=i...

He has been right when so many, many, many other 'professional' economists and commentators have been wrong. That he is now moving towards the L shaped recession view point should be of grave concern.