I cannot agree more with Bernard's trend chart comparing the movement in home prices in the US vs NZ. A friend in the US sent me this analysis of the housing situation there, provided him by an investment counselor: http://www.designs.valueinvestorinsight.com/bonus/pdf/T2_Housing_Analysi... .

Economist Nouriel Roubini, one of those portrayed as a doom merchant, but a man who has been right on the money so far, gave this interview in U.S. News & World Report; http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254836/interview_with_us_news_... .

His prediction is that houses will fall at least another 15 - 20% and suggests that individual markets can use pre-bubble prices, those from 1996 - 2001, as the benchmark to determine where they will bottom. New Zealand's situation is made more difficult because although mortgage interest rates will fall over the next year, we will not be able to match the US, point for point. New Zealand has to maintain a 4% buffer to service a foreign debt in US dollars and YEN.

It's funny to see the denial from NZ's vested interests - property owners, government figures, estate agents etc. It's the same claptrap we had in the UK around 6-9 months ago - 'it's different here, this is a US problem, we are a small island with not enough houses, it's all about supply and demand, there are strong fundamentals....'

Turns out they were all talking nonsense. UK house prices are down 15 percent year on year. We weren't immune, it's just that we are lagging the US by about a year. looks like you guys in NZ are a little further behind the curve, but we're all headed the same way. All countries which allowed cheap and overavailable credit to drive up house prices to unsustainable levels are in for a nasty and painful collapse.

Bernard is there in spirit Mr shorts: "Estimates of a 30 per cent price drop have angered people keener to take a brighter view of the market." ORLY!

shorts Says:
"That's not going to be good enough for Hickey. He needs attention to generate interest in this website to make him some money from advertising."

That is a statement made by someone who has..no ..who is in total ignorance of the running, administration, and purpose of a web site
AND has absolutely now concept of the costs, of servers, maintaince, site maintance and adverising income generated from a web site.

Steps.