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Top 10 at 10 past 11: Lee criticises Hubbard; Big leaky mess; German dungeon; Dilbert

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Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 past 11. I welcome your additions and comments below or please send suggestions for Monday day’s Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz We buy half as much at interest.co.nz

Dilbert.com

1. Leaky, leaky, leaky - Yesterday I talked about New Zealand being so 'lucky, lucky, lucky' (HT to the immortal Kylie Minogue) to be next to the Lucky Country. Today it's worth pointing out we're not so lucky with leaky buildings. This NZHerald report explores another aspect of the problem that is only now dawning on New Zealanders. Many of our schools and hospitals are leaky too. HT Troy Barsten via email.

Finance Minister Bill English talked a bit about this earlier this week in our video interview with him.

This school in Papamoa will cost NZ$7 million to completely rebuild. How many other rotting public buildings are out there?

Tahatai Coast School in Papamoa has begun a rebuilding project which is expected to take up to three years and cost $7 million. Principal Ian Leckie said not a single building at the modern school was unaffected by the rot.

Twelve of 33 classrooms will be demolished, with the library, a special-needs unit and teacher resource rooms. Classrooms that are not demolished will be completely refitted.

2. The missing link - Vincent Heeringa at Idealog has written a long and thoughtful piece on why our economic performance has been so poor compared to others. He rightly laments John Key's decision in his reform speech not to reform the economy, but Heeringa goes on to ask some tough questions about New Zealand's ability to turn our R&D into money.

Related Topics

Since 1995 we have doubled the number of researchers per thousand employees and rank fourth in the OECD on that measure.

What’s missing is not so much the science, but what comes next, the commercialisation. Contrast the number of papers we published with the number of patents: 0.03 US patents per 1000 people compared to 0.15 for Finland and 0.26 for the USA. Or compare the amount of R&D done by Kiwi businesses, where the only justification for investment in science is financial return: only 0.5 percent of our GDP is spent by business on R&D, less than a quarter of the OECD average.

New Zealand is missing a magic sauce, a catalyst that turns our world-class research into world-class intellectual property.

3. 'Vee haf vays of making zem stop zee speculating' - The head of Europe's group of finance ministers is threatening bond speculators with torture if they don't stop speculating against the euro. He actually referred to a cellar and torture equipment in Handelsblatt. Yikes.

“If the Greeks hold on to the strict parameters and the markets continue to speculate against Greece, we will not let them just march through,” Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s prime minister, told Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper. “We have the torture equipment in the cellar, and we will show them if needed.” Mr Juncker chairs meetings of eurozone finance ministers.

4. 'Vee haf vays of making zem repay zere debts' - The name calling and rhetoric between the Germans and the Greeks is still rumbling on. The latest idea has come from a senior member of Germany's ruling coalition government. He is suggesting that Greece sell a few uninhabited islands to repay the debt. I'd like to buy that one used as the background in the  film of the 'Mamma Mia' musical. The NZ dollar has appreciated 30% vs the euro in the last year. I fancy myself a leetle island in the sun... Reuters has the story. HT David via IM.

Josef Schlarmann, a senior member of Merkel's Christian Democrats, and Frank Schaeffler, a finance policy expert in the Free Democrats, were quoted on Thursday as saying that selling islands and other assets could help Greece out of its crisis.

"Those in insolvency have to sell everything they have to pay their creditors," Schlarmann told Bild newspaper. "Greece owns buildings, companies and uninhabited islands, which could all be used for debt redemption."

5. An interesting idea - Renowned economist David Hale has proposed a radical idea in the FT to help solve Greece's budget crisis. He suggests the imposition of a 6 member commission to replace Greece's government. It would include 3 Greeks and 3 Europeans. There is a precedent. A similar thing was done for Newfoundland in the 1930s.

The European Union could follow this example by asking the Greek government to suspend its parliament and turn over the powers of government to a commission of six bureaucrats, three from Athens and three from Brussels. The commission would guarantee Greece’s debt and rule the country until it regained solvency. There would probably be more protests against the loss of democracy in Greece than in Newfoundland, but it could set the stage for the radical economic restructuring that Greece needs. Greece could return to democracy in 2015 with the highest growth rate in Europe.

6. 'Stay long gold' - Former Economist journalist Christopher Wood now works for investment bank CLSA in Hong Kong and his 'Greed and Fear' newsletter is always an entertaining read. He doesn't think the 'Club Med' debt crisis is over by a long shot. The amount of debt that has to be issued in coming months is staggering.

The reality is that this drama will come to a head sooner or later. And with Greece needing to raise €20bn in the next three months it could be sooner, especially as some other “Club Med” countries also face significant debt refunding schedules between March and May. Thus, Spain and Portugal have €31bn and €11bn of government debt maturing in the next three months.

it is only a matter of time before the markets’ focus on fiscal deterioration in Euroland switches to the growing fiscal predicament in America. But in GREED & fear’s view the crisis will come first in Europe. In the meantime, the seeming inevitability of a systemic government debt crisis in the West remains the fundamental reason to remain long gold.

27531196-Greed-Fear-No-Reprieve-CLSA -

7. Bad hair day - Here's Christopher Wood on CNBC. And I thought my hair was an issue... He remains bullish on Chinese stocks and reckons the developed world is set for a deflationary recession. "The crisis is going to happen first in Europe and end in America," he reckons.

7. More watering down - Paul Volcker's plan to stop government guaranteed banks playing on the casino with public money has been watered down again. A fresh draft of the plan shows it would allow banks to keep making markets in Treasuries. It seems the banks need the government and vice versa. Bloomberg has the story.

President Barack Obama yesterday sent Congress the five- page proposal to ban proprietary trading and block mergers that give banks more than a 10 percent market share, as measured by liabilities other than insured deposits. It also would bar banks from owning or investing in hedge funds and private equity firms.

The rule, which is aimed at reducing the risk of another financial crisis, exempts mergers that exceed the market-share limit in cases when a firm acquires a failing bank with regulators’ approval. Also left out are trading in Treasury and agency securities, including debt issued by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Such exemptions may help to avoid market disruptions that could affect small investors, said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York.

“The market is made up of many unseen hands with different objectives and investment horizons, and if you pull out the speculators making short term bets, like prop trading banks, then” an individual investor is “going to be the one who suffers,” Rupkey said. Prop refers to proprietary trading. In a memo accompanying the plan, the administration said it doesn’t want to interfere with market-making or any hedging related to serving customers.

8. 'Way too profitable' - The Australia Institute has released a 19 page report called 'A licence to print money' saying that Australia's big four banks are reaping A$20 billion in monopoly profits because of their dominance of the Australian market. This will no doubt cause a stir across the Tasman.

This paper puts the view that Australian banks are too profitable and that their excess profits are being made at the expense of the Australian community. The paper estimates the underlying profits of the banks to remove the impact of the global financial crisis but, as the crisis passes, actual profits will again reflect underlying profits.
The estimates in this paper suggest that the big four banks alone make underlying profits of around $35 billion before tax, of which some $20 billion per annum is likely to reflect the banks’ exploitation of their monopoly over the Australian payments system.

9. Questions for the great man - Kapiti coast stockbroker and financial adviser Chris Lee has written long and detailed piece on South Canterbury Finance that questions the performance and judgment of Allan Hubbard in recent years. It's well worth a read. Lee has defended South Canterbury pretty staunchly until now and, of course, recommended many clients invest with the great man of the South. Lee is no fan of this website, I understand, but I welcome his regular and detailed views on finance companies. He is one of the few willing to speak out. That should be congratulated.

Putting in that money is the first step only. At least another $100 million must be added. More capital is the headline. SCF now needs to add substance, and Allan Hubbard, who has provided it in the past, is no longer likely to be the substance.

His error-rate in recent years is obvious, beginning with his failure to stop the lending errors of his directors and executives, his failure to dismiss them as being the wrong people for the job required, his failure to acquire strong, energetic appropriately-skilled directors with a focus on governance, and his failure to tap into the right advisers. He has been too soft, for too long. Too generous.

I apologise if this seems cruel, tough on those genial directors he had, tough on two ex-Westpac senior managers who chose all the wrong people and projects to drive lending growth.

Lee also highlights some very interesting related party lending, if true. It doesn't look great.

Perhaps the worst mistake, motivated by kindness, was the decision to lend $15 million to Lachie Macleod, to enable Macleod to buy 10% of Southbury (Macleod was CEO of SCF until a few months ago).

As if that was not a big enough error, he allowed Macleod to borrow it via a purpose-built trust and it seems he allowed the loan to be documented without personal guarantees.

At least two other directors of SCF were given identical, but smaller loans; all three were documented by one of the borrowers, Ed Sullivan, a Timaru solicitor, SCF director and long-term beneficiary of Hubbard’s business interests.

The security for these loans - Southbury shares - may now not be saleable to anyone other than Allan Hubbard. The borrowers would legally have the ability to walk away from the loans, if they were so inclined. Nearly $20 million was lent, in total.

10. Totally irrelevant video - Samantha Bee has a solution on The Daily Show for one man's unemployment problem on The Daily Show. She's been watching Hung....

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Jonah Falcon Needs a Job
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
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We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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52 Comments

Regarding number 4... During 'what

Regarding number 4... During 'what if' discussions just the other night, we were discussing this exact possibility! (Greece selling off some islands to the Germans). It would make for a great holiday destination (for Germans); no need to clear customs (since you would still be 'in Germany'). They could also take down all those signs that nobody can read (all in Greek you know) and replace them with German ones. I guess the only problem left is kicking whoever is on the islands in question, off.

Of course the Greek response to such proposals might be less positive.

@Martinv: There is a customs

@Martinv:

There is a customs union already, so no need to 'clear customs' within the EU.

The people on the islands would not necessarily have to leave unless they want to (or the German's made it a condition) - they would just be living in Germany instead. Come to think of it, they might actually welcome the idea!

They would probably bump all their prices up 20% for the rich new customers, and milk it for what its worth.

Only trouble is that now they would find they couldn't get away with under-paying their tax so easily - I suspect the German Inland Revenue is more 'efficient'.....

Alan.

The Germans could just put

The Germans could just put their towels out on the islands they want to claim.

And they'd be up before

And they'd be up before dawn to do that, Trev.

Top 9?

Top 9?

@item #2 I’m not sure

@item #2

I’m not sure you can apply “patents per capita” as a metric of innovation. Especially when Apple is trying to file BullShizz patents like these:

http://gizmodo.com/5485989/apple-patents-using-usb-ports-as-air-vents-fo...

Since when can you patent holes? The graph is interesting but I thing correlation is not necessarily causation. Besides, the entire system of Patents and Copyright is broken. The driving factor of innovation is lowering the Barriers to Entry. Right now the NZ government is do all it can to increase those barriers. As the NZ increase the barriers making doing business more expensive corruption will begin to set in and the entire works becomes extremely inefficient. IF you want to spur innovation then enact the flowing changes:

Copyright expires within 20 years of creation or on the author's death (whichever comes first). Also, copyright can no longer be transferred or inherited. (e.g. only a real persons and not corporations can hold a copyright privileges. However, corporation can hold patents)

Software patents should be reduced to 5 years and EULA’s should be abolished.

Technical patents expire in 20 years and non-technical patents (i.e. drugs) expire in 10. Since every new technology of work of art is the sum of the technology or art that precede it, the quicker the technology and art fall into the public domain the sooner innovation can happen.

Chris Lee and Hubbard -

Chris Lee and Hubbard - I have read the entire peice by Chris Lee and it reads for all the world like a plea from a desperate man...

Lee needs SCF to be fixed and fixed soon so that he can keep his reputation... but Lee hasn't done his sums correctly... if he thinks it is just another $100m he is in for a shock... It has always been at least $400m...

Fairfax O'Rourke 10th link up

Fairfax O'Rourke

10th link up now. My apols.

cheers
Bernard

@ #8 Sounds like a

@ #8

Sounds like a job for Kiwibank...or maybe they can change their name to Ozzybank when they open branches across the ditch.

Martin & Allan. Yes, a

Martin & Allan. Yes, a crucial issue about how to deal with the people living on those uninhabited islands!!! A very serious ethical issue. I think a matter for all those Euro bureaucrats in Brussels, right up their alley!

Cheers

@Troy: There was an Ozzybank-

@Troy: There was an Ozzybank- Reuters code OZBK (Australian Bank Ltd) back in 1980, odd. Management basically left and went off to new upstart...Macqauarie Bank! Point being; Australia has tried adding competition before. They had 64 foreign banks operating there in the late 80's-Citi and Barclays even had branch networks. But it didn't last. Most things revert to the mean ( except house prices, that is)

Where Greece goes we are

Where Greece goes we are set to follow.. only it'll be the IMF arriving to kick arse and not the Germans.Has the Kiwi reached terminal velocity yet?...Bolly's ocr finger will be getting itchy.

Kiwi's smelling a bit like

Kiwi's smelling a bit like Fonterra's milk powder.

@Nicholas Even housing prices will

@Nicholas

Even housing prices will regress to the mean. Every outlier will eventually regress to the mean.

Hey, Bernard!! I can't believe

Hey, Bernard!! I can't believe you haven't included the Theresa Gattung piece in the Dom today! Its so cool! Talk about a good bitch-slapping!

The best bit is when she says that Labour was grumpy at Telecom for introducing such lightning-fast broadband, at a price & speed that was the envy of the developed world:

"Labour saw a "political upside" in going after Telecom, to the extent that it was annoyed rather than pleased when Telecom "beat it to the punch" by offering faster, cheaper broadband, she writes.

The rest is a cracking good read too.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3406654/Gattung-slams-her-successors-salary

"You'll have to read my

"You'll have to read my book...."
"In the book I detail this....."
"As I say in my book....."
"We'll talk about it when you've read my book"

Sorry, I said this all this morning on RNZ

You should read it. It’s

You should read it. It’s a book about an actor that played a CEO of a major Telco-Mob company that quits her job to write a book about her experiences talking about books to the media. It's a real page turner...

Oh...she quits at the end. :P

Sounds like it was written

Sounds like it was written in clawses , rather than paras. :)

I'd rather read an episode

I'd rather read an episode of Noddy.

Telecom has always had a

Telecom has always had a reputation for sluggishness in coming to terms with new technology, poor investments, technical incompetence, terrible customer relations, and ever-declining share market performance.

They have however mastered the art of obscuring this by blaming everyone else but themselves for their poor performance - that is, their technical heritage, the business environment, their suppliers, the Government, etc etc.

This glorious tradition has been stoutly maintained by Mr Reynolds over the last week or so, a stellar performance.

However, Ms Gattung has come clean. She has owned up & confessed honestly and openly that all the faults and blame for Telecom's flaws lie at the feet of ........ Oh, hang on.......

Re. #9 - I have

Re. #9 - I have been reading Chris Lee's website for a few years now. His transformation from being an avid supporter of SCF, Strategic Finance and St. Laurence to now being a stern critic is quite remarkable. I bet his clients are not too happy regarding his sudden change of style. I wonder if his clients losses through investments in these companies have caused this U-turn.

"He is one of the few willing to speak out. That should be congratulated." - I would suggest that his speaking out is too little too late

Nicholas - Yes, they would.

Nicholas - Yes, they would. I was always tempted to take the towels away but never had the courage.

yes chris lee rated strategic

yes chris lee rated strategic and st laurence as an A for investors guidance and now they are D for dog tucker or in the case of strategic dog droppings.

Lee was also at one

Lee was also at one time an advocater of Hannover.

Cheers Bernard, you are being watched and judged.

@Troy: Well, I know at

@Troy:
Well, I know at the company I work for, we don't bother applying for patents because we know we don't have the finances to fight a patent battle anyway ... so we put our efforts into innovation, rather than tying up engineers time to write patents.

Our strategy is to innovate faster than the competition, and earn customer loyalty through being a can-do and quick response company ... and I'd wager that most NZ companies are in the same boat ... so yup, patents per capita is a pretty bad proxy for innovation.

I am surprised Lee is

I am surprised Lee is not a fan of this site. After all he could have learned so much from it (recall the warnings here 18 months ago about the fate of finance companies).

You would have to say his track record as a financial advisor is excremental.

Everyones a critic, its just

Everyones a critic, its just so easy, i.e.lets not forget the SQP scores!
I thought SQP's weren't bad measure, but there fault was that they ranked the results amongst themselves as opposed to some hurdles, i.e. easy to be top of the deadbeats when there are only deadbeats. Should have called a spade a spade, if they didn't make the grade then they don't get an A, even if they ranked in the top 10% of deadbeats.

I just have to post

I just have to post this....I tried not to but well you know how it is...and it does have the smell of money about it...along with other very nasty stinks...yes it's from the Herald..."Brian Tamaki claims he had been ready to take a vow of poverty, but that was not what God wanted"...you enjoyed that didn't you....

Who wants a guru that

Who wants a guru that swans around in a loin-cloth with harlots and lepers ? Follow the guy with Rolls Royces and stunning young " assistants " ..........Mr. Brian Tamaki is our version of Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh ...... And no tax to pay , a charity ( cough cough ) to boot !!!

Tamaki and his missus, god

Tamaki and his missus, god bless their kind souls, buy the buildings and lease them back to the church, they have learned a little from watching the founders of McDonalds, Harvey Normans etc, everyone thought they were into burgers and furniture respectively, turned out they were more into realestate.

Radiolive had Tamaki on radio today, having Brash on Mon, I thought it should have been the other way around, what Brash and his banker buddies dont take from the commoners with their commercial pyramid scam, Tamaki will get when the turn up in desperation on the porch of his mansion.

Roger, Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh was

Roger, Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh was a really cool dude. Funny as well. Read some of his stuff, he was the ultimate piss-taker.

And you're saying that <b>Mr.

And you're saying that Mr. Tamaki isn't that , and a whole lot more ? Eftpos terminals in churches : Now that is taking the wee wee ! [ the WeetBix packet cut-out " Bishop " . ]

Australia is the Lucky country.

Australia is the Lucky country. NZ is the Leaky country. It leaks talents and money and methane to the world and water into the buildings........

The word for Sunday: Tamaki

The word for Sunday: Tamaki has a lot of quality for a successful PM. I'm not quite clear of the position of Harawira - Speaker ?

If Tamaki got to be

If Tamaki got to be PM I'd be on the next flight to OZ. Fortunately the odds of Destiny even getting 1 MP are rather long...

regards

@smokey: My house does not

@smokey: My house does not leak water...it was designed and constructed in the 1960s for NZ weather and earthquake conditions, unlike poncy mexican fungus traps...which cracks at every shake and then eaks water like the titanic...its quite simple, people lacked sense....now they pay for it...

regards

LOL, vow of poverty....LOL... regards

LOL, vow of poverty....LOL...

regards

on #7 as with most

on #7 as with most dysfunctional realtionships a bit of 'tough love is required'. Volcker has the balls, Obama doesn't (same as in most families).

Gives new meaning to "The

Gives new meaning to "The life of Brian"....but seriously...the real worry is that so many peasants can be so bloody stupid as to join his cult and give him their money(much of it probably taxpayer money in the first place)...please don't tell me our stupid govt allows this cult to avoid taxes because it's a 'religion'....they don't do they?

Very interesting document referenced here:

Very interesting document referenced here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/03/taking...

Bottom line: stuffing around with tax makes little difference to recovery. The key is to reduce spending.

At last count , Wally

At last count , Wally , there were 24 000 registered " charities " in NZ . That includes churches , such as Mr. Tamaki's . ............ 0 % tax !!!!!

Wally - there's an awful

Wally - there's an awful lot of stupidity around. We've just swapped religions. Those folk are still on about pie in the sky when you die, but nobody is questioning economists, a whole lot of high priests trained on a flat, infinite planet.

It's just as implausable a doctrine, but the wide-eyed belief is the same.

Right....I'm starting a religion....the church

Right....I'm starting a religion....the church of wally...
I'll take contributions...will call them tiffs...and put them in an investment and reap the taxfree gains..which I will use to buy me a roller cos god told me I need to have a roller or the peasants won't believe the shite I dish up...and I'll need a host(pardon the pun...think it's a pun!)of MALE lootenants to protect me and they will need black suits and sunnies...our aim is to create heavan on earth...for me first of course...can't live in a slum like the followers...oooooh this is good. Correction...Nordic female lootenants!

It's the ' kissing Wally's

It's the ' kissing Wally's ring" bit that puts me off ( But that apparently, isn't compulsory?)......But I do like the old Baghwann Sri Rajnish, or who-ever-he-was. What was it his lootenetant (pun following) said after taking his loot, Tough t...ies". Anyway, I'd like the bit about free-love with the Nordics. (Not you, Sven).

You are forgiven that task

You are forgiven that task my son...now hand over your tiff.

Where are me "love offerings"...come

Where are me "love offerings"...come on you lot...Wally your Moshiach is waiting and you don't want to let god down do you....pay up you buggers.
I wonder if BE has realised he needs to turn the National Party into a cult..oops sorry, a religion....and milk the members...errrr, the congregation...for tiffs...jeeez Bill think of what you're missing out on mate...a roller...another house...some sheep for the farm!

<b>Quote of the Day</b> :

Quote of the Day : Outside of a dog , a man's best friend is a book . Inside of a dog it's too dark to read ! ( Groucho Marx )

Wally - you might want

Wally - you might want to think it through. As the third most privately-indebted nation on the planet, 10% of all that negative equity could be yours.

As for those on about your ring - sod 'em. So to speak.

:)

BRIAN TAMAKI! I HAVE CHANGED

BRIAN TAMAKI! I HAVE CHANGED MY MIND! I WANT YOU TO TAKE A VOW OF POVERTY! OK? AND I MEAN REAL POVERTY, I DON'T JUST MEAN MOVING TO POINT CHEVALIER.

WALLY! BUY MORE COPPER! CALL

WALLY! BUY MORE COPPER! CALL THIS AN INSIDER TIP AND DON'T TELL ANYBODY ELSE, BUT I'M NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY MORE.

Thanks PDK..that gave me the

Thanks PDK..that gave me the willies...

Wally willie wonker?

Wally willie wonker?