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Strong dairy exports push June month and quarter into surplus

Posted in News Updated

New Zealand recorded a NZ$276 million trade surplus in June, the first June month surplus in eight years, boosted by strong exports of dairy products.

(Update adds comments from economist).

Statistics New Zealand said today the value of goods exported in the June month was NZ$3.8 billion compared to imports of NZ$3.5 billion, creating a NZ$276 million surplus equivalent to 7.3% of exports. It's the first June surplus since 2002.

Merchandise exports were up NZ$552 million, or 17%, from June 2009, led by a NZ$244 million, or 44%, jump in milk powder, butter and cheese exports. June merchandise imports were down NZ$56 million in June, or 1.6% versus June 2009.

It was the sixth straight monthly surplus but was down from NZ$768 million in May and below analysts' consensus expectations for a figure of about NZ$368 million.

JP Morgan economist Helen Kevans noted the year-to-date trade balance remained in surplus for the third straight month, which suggested healthy export revenues continue to offset sluggish domestic demand. Kevans said the year-to-date surplus was NZ$639 million, compared to NZ$32 million in May after pushing into surplus in April for the first time since mid-2002.

Meanwhile the value of goods exported in the June quarter, after adjusting for seasonal effects, rose 6.8% outstripping a 5.8% rise in the value of imported goods. That compares to rises of 11 and 7.1% respectively, in the March quarter.

The seasonally adjusted June quarter trade surplus was NZ$389 million, equivalent to 3.5% of exports. It's the second consecutive seasonally adjusted surplus. Before the March quarter surplus, however,  the previous one was way back in the December 2001 quarter.

“Seasonally adjusted export values are now similar to the record level recorded in late 2008, whereas import values are still well below their 2008 high,” Statistics New Zealand's overseas trade manager Neil Kelly said.

“The high export values coincide with record values for dairy exports.”

 Seasonally adjusted exports of milk powder, butter, and cheese rose 15% in the June quarter representing half the total increase in export values. Exports of meat and edible offal rose 7.8% and logs, wood, and wood article exports rose 12%.

Rises in imports included a 6.7% increase in intermediate goods, including petroleum products and raw materials, a near quadrupling of imports of  military and other goods due to the import of offshore patrol vessels, HMNZS Otago and Wellington, and a 1.1% rise in consumption goods.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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7 Comments

 "June merchandise imports

 "June merchandise imports were down NZ$56 million in June, or 1.6% versus June 2009".....and the import figure was boosted by military splurging!...now that does not sound like an economy showing signs of growth...more likely one that is shrinking. Ask yourself why imports are falling.

Look at Wally I think the sky

Look at Wally I think the sky is falling on you.

June 2009 imports had $500

June 2009 imports had $500 million of aircraft for Jetstar. Even with the two offshore patrol boats ( ~$200 million)  there is still a $300 million gap.

The govt is reliant on the

The govt is reliant on the export producers more so than ever!....watch carefully as the tail starts to wag the dog. It will begin in the National rump meetings. Farmers fed up with being kept in the dark and treated like fungi. It is dawning on the players in this game...just who holds the winning cards. The ETS along with Smith will get the heave ho and be told to go. There are enough farmers debtfree and willing to swing a bloody big axe down onto the govts head. Want us to bail you out.?....here are our terms!

Wally, I think we are a bit

Wally, I think we are a bit sick of your consistent bleating and inability to make a positive comment about anything to do with the NZ economy.

 

This news is all good which ever way you look at it.

Wally STFU Also, China has a

Wally STFU

Also, China has a trade surplus. The US has a deficit. Look at how the power has shifted.

Japan invariably has a trade

Japan invariably has a trade surplus, as do many others, a trade surplus  can be interpreted in a number of ways, but it does not always indicate a strong economy. Remember also China's biggest trade partners are the EU, US and Japan , for China to continue to export, these countries need to import.The trade figures for New Zealand shower a weakening economy.