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90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Two polls show NZ First over 5% threshold on election eve; US stocks falling on Merkel's block on Euro bonds

90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Two polls show NZ First over 5% threshold on election eve; US stocks falling on Merkel's block on Euro bonds

Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news two opinion polls are suggesting Winston Peters' NZ First Party will receive more than 5% of the vote in tomorrow's election and get back into parliament.

That would complicate National's ability to govern at all, let alone being able to govern alone with its own support of around 50%.

The final Roy Morgan poll before the election found NZ First at 6.5%, the Greens at 14.5%, Labour at 23.5% and National at 49.5%.

The final Herald/Digipoll put National at 50.9%, Labour at 28%, NZ First at 5.2% and the Greens at 11.8%.

If these polls pan out on election night, National would have to hope that ACT and United Future win their electoral seats for it to be able to form a government with Maori, possibly with some sort of side agreement with the Greens.

Meanwhile the European financial crisis continues to worsen.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel again spoke out against the creation of Euro zone bonds, and she is also opposed to the European Central Bank printing money to buy Southern European bonds.

These are both measures demanded by banks and many Eurocrats who believe they are the only way the Euro zone can survive in its current form.

US stocks were down  fell more than 2.2% on Wednesday night in late trade as fears spread that Europe's bond market meltdown will destabilise Europe's banking system and spread to America.

European stocks fell overnight and bond yields rose further, signalling more problems inside Europe's financial system. See more here at Bloomberg.

Also, ratings agency Fitch downgraded Portugal's rating to junk because of its recession, heavy debt load and ruinously high interest rates. See more here at Reuters.

Germany and France are at loggerheads over what the ECB should do, although they have agreed to stop arguing about it in public. See more here at Reuters.

Meanwhile Reuters reported the ECB was looking at extending the terms of the loans it makes to European banks to 3 years from 2 years. It is the only major bank still lending to many European banks.

The New Zealand dollar remains weak around 74 USc, but is a tad stronger vs the Australian dollar around 76 Australian cents. See more here in BNZ's currencies report on our site.

(Updated with more details, links and currencies info, and corrected to make clear US markets were on Thanksgiving holiday overnight and fall was from Wednesday night. European stock and bond prices fell)

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35 Comments

I wonder what the market response will be if Winnie gets enough support to destabilize

Parliament.   Maybe that will bring the NZ dollar down even more.

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Great stuff - Winston working to help Kiwi exporters once more ;p

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The Greens have always been pretty reasonsible members of Parliment, I would hope that they continue with that.....in which case WP will be a non-event.

regards

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The Greens are more appealing to voters without Sue Bradford .....

.. .. but if they form a coalition with National after the election , expect a split within the Greens party .

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The Greens have always been pretty reasonsible members of Parliment -  Yeah Right!

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love your sarcasm there db. they should be in there passing retrospective and unneccessary laws under urgency that allow spying on nz citizens eh? and having people reforming finance laws before leaving parliament to work in the finance sector eh db? and rorting the pm allowances to within an inch of their lives eh db?

way to go with your awesome sarcasm! you're totally the clevererest db!

 

you rule!

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Good heavens, Valerie, such indignation, such anger! Have you defaced any billboards lately?

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Interesting that National has dipped and NZF gained.....maybe its a protest over asset sales...

In any case the 5% threshold is way to high......it should be 2%......I detest Winnie, but NZF should be in Parliment for democray's sake.

regards

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Portugal - junk.....

oh....

regards

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Air NZ plane diverts for 'PM pick-up'

 

"Out of the blue, passengers on that flight were advised that the plane was to be diverted to New Plymouth for 'operational' reasons.

"Little did they realise that 'operational' meant their flight was diverted simply to pick up the Prime Minister."

The flight was over half an hour late as a result, Ms Bradford said.

"On top of that, while in the air the stewardess announced that passengers should vote National, apparently at the request of John Key.

"This goes beyond the sort of born to rule arrogance that is normal with National.

"These are the actions of a man who has lost all perspective on how a Prime Minister should behave."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10768639

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Some on board thought the plane had been hailed by John Key like a taxi.

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Did you actually read the article Fanua? or just pick out the left wing bias comments... 

Air NZ cancelled a flight, so diverted a plane to pick up the stranded passengers, one of which was the PM...

 

 

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UM... I have been left stranded at least a half dozen times in the last 5 years by AirNZ becasue of so-called 'technical problems' (read flight nearly empty and will cost AirNZ rather than make money) and I have yet to have a plane diverted for me. But then I'm NOT the PM.

That said I have had a Air NZ planes delay take off to load the high profile people I'm with... so I guess, right people, right time and they'll be there for ya!

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In the last month I have had 3 flights cancelled (due to technical issues) and being put on different flights on a completely different route in the last month, on Air NZ.

Become a Koru member Mandalay, if you're not already - they will wait for you then. ;-)

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hey Casual Observer as I am Koru member (Gold Status et al) maybe they were waiting for me after all... I'll have to hold my head a wee bit higher now ;-)

Try get to and from Whanganui via a different route... flying to Palmie is such a pain and that blooming airport tax nazi at the departure gate.... John Cleese is right!

 

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1586512.htm

 

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"On top of that, while in the air the stewardess announced that passengers should vote National, apparently at the request of John Key"

Probably the Air NZ flight should have been labelled with a party ad authorisation, and declared as an election expense? 

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Sue Bradford lecturing us again , on how to behave .... surprising that !

.... Air NZ have said that the Nelson flight to Auckland was only delayed by 20 minutes because of the stop . And that they'd have stopped anyway , for any passengers wanting the flight to Auckland .

...... bugger me why all these people are so mad keen to get to " Yuckland " in the first instance !

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whoopie doo   - any other  normal country would give the PM his own plane , hes actually saving us money catching rides on commercial flights

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I see the Green's support is slipping away in a number of recent polls. It will be interesting to see when push comes to shove on Election Day, if its support actually collapses.

One of the problems with the Green’s has always been that its support comes from the more naive and idealistic members of the community, the young. But once they have grown up and developed the greater and deeper awareness of issues that inevitably comes with age, experience and increasing responsibility, they dump their naive idealism.  And that’s the challenge for the Greens, how to retain that support which tends to walk once the lights have gone on.

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14.5% is a "neg" slip, as per usual the maths of the right is wonky...and make believe.

Lets not forget that Don Brash was taking ACT to 10% plus....he's still at 1.5%...ACT may even lose Epsom.....l....so where are their lights I wonder? long out it seems....If Dunne goes and thats likely, bye bye National seems likely as well.....they have dipped to <50%.....they will need to choke on some other party.....Hone?  that will be interesting....

"naive and idealistic" yeah right....every day you prove yourself a bigoted far right winger ....congrats today you exceeded even my low expectations of you....

regards

 

 

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And who'd want any ideals in old age huh.

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Updated with European stocks and bonds down. Corrected to make clear US markets closed overnight for Thanksgiving holiday.

Sorry guys. Forgot about the pumpkin pie and turkey

cheers

Bernard

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yep, place is shut down, except for Starbucks.  Tomorrow is Friday the 13, sales day (no idea why) tents up out side Best Buy, about 30 so far, best buy opens at 2 am. All the other shops range from 12 to 6am.  Consumption still rules in the good old USA but  fuel is getting close to $4 a gallon which they find hard to get their head around, will it stay this high, should I sell the truck, its only an 8 liter engine, should we have less kids so we can still afford the truck? Great way to start the Christmas rush, stay a week in a tent to get a half price Tv. %14 unemployment up here, bet its really a lot higher.

Will scout around next week, may take a drive to Portland see how the apples are doing. Good luck with the election, who ever you support, will NZ still be there Monday?

 

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

one obvious threat to national security that is never mentioned by the Pentagon, the C.I.A., the Mainstream Media or anyone else: systemic chronic ill-health resulting directly from "lifestyle" choices of diet and fitness.

 

 

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systemic chronic ill-health resulting directly from "lifestyle" choices of diet and fitness.

....and from reading too much doom and gloom on interest.co

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Oh and that BMI index doesn't really work if you have any sort of muscle mass. 

Burp.

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Wolly and Gummy will hate this:

http://www.changenz.co.nz/posts/money-and-inflation.aspx 

and see Steve Keen on BBC's Hardtalk reinforcing the ideas presented in the above link:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/hardtalk/9641873.stm

 

Excellent work Iain Parker.

 

Cheers, Les.

www.nzmea.org.nz

 

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Crikey Les : You're nearly as forgetful as me ! ...... we did the Raf Manji thing two weeks ago . I heard the interview with Kim Hill live on Radio National .

... Ms Hill is a sharp lass , and she couldn't figger out the guy's theories either ...

.. .. what hope for a " Bumper Sticker Boy " such as moi !

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Forget it ctnz, Rog will probably think you are referring to the stuff he's been putting his hair.

;-) eh Roger.

Anyway, what do you think fo Steve Keen's idea - he's a step or two on from Raf or what the likes of Iain has been on about -  he just want to print and do a kind of jubilee debt forgiveness - for individuals!!!

That's right, Steve Keen, watch it, it's really him. Another link for the full interview:

 http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/11/24/hardtalk-interview-in-25-minutes-3-30pm-sydney-time/

Whatever will Wolly think ......

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Barry Soper on Radio said NZ First may not be 'legal' and therefore if it gets over the 5% technically the votes may be void. All to do with not registering on time as a 'Charitable organisation'. The Cat will be among the pigeons if that is the case.

 

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The situation in Europe is progressing naturally, in spite of any attempts or lack of, to alter the natural course.  It seems that headlines are driving the market, and reality has yet to be priced in.  Of course this will hit the US, the UK, Japan, NZ.  A 3trillion dollar sub prime mortgage market sent the world into recession, wtf do you think will happen when a 30trillion Euro zero risk rated government bond market collapses?  Contagion starting to spread?  This is the disease that is transmitted before you develop symptoms.  The entire fiat ponzi fractional reserve banking has brain cancer, I hope to christ it's terminal.  Otherwise we end up with a full retard banking system calling the shots, ruling countries and any work we do will be used to keep it on life support.

Italy's President is a Goldman Sachs appointed puppet, an un-elected ruler, serving the interest of the banks.  Don't be fooled, the banks are the biggest loser in the debt based ponzi.  It's the false economics of creating money from nothing, at no cost, and then charging labour for it. 

These countries should go ahead and default with their head held high, it cost the banks nothing to create the money they used to buy the  bonds, and that's what they should get back!

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nicely put Skudiv...

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Bit of a head and shoulders on that NZ$ chart there, hello 50c, hello $3/litre petrol.  O yeh our exchange rate is hurting exporters, they will get a break soon, may not last long, make hay while the sun shines, I always say.

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Did Nicholas say goodbye?

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A whole week without Wolly...wow...been down the bottom of the island.....repeat after me..."must not comment on election day"....yurk

Without a doubt the speed of the collapse in Europe and elsewhere, with the threat all that poses for NZ......who would be dumb enough to vote for a party determined to increase borrowing....

Happy weekend all.

 

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