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Lack of NZ investment overseas contributing to external imbalances, Finance Minister English says; Wants more NZers to follow lead of Super, KiwiSaver funds into overseas assets
By Alex Tarrant
New Zealand needs to turn around a lack of investment abroad to help correct the economy's external imbalances, Finance Minister Bill English says.
Speaking to a Victoria University-Peking University Conference on Contemporary China, English said that while New Zealand was a recipient of foreign investment in line with the OECD average, New Zealanders invested overseas at well below average rates.
English told media after his speech that the gap between New Zealand's outward and inward foreign investment was "one of the things that creates an imbalance between New Zealand and the rest of the world."
The government wanted more New Zealand businesses to follow the lead of the Super Fund and KiwiSaver funds which were investing in overseas equity markets, he said.
Current account deficit dominated by income deficit
New Zealand's current account deficit - the shortfall between its earnings from the rest of the world and what the rest of the world earns from New Zealand - has been dominated by an income deficit as foreign investment in New Zealand earns more than New Zealand investment abroad.
The latest figures from Statistics New Zealand for the year to March 2012 show the country's NZ$9.74 billion current account deficit over the year was dominated by a NZ$10.77 billion income deficit.
Related Topics
To show how much the income deficit dominates New Zealand's transfers with the rest of the world, in the year to March 2012 it combined with a NZ$2.74 billion goods surplus, a NZ$1.25 billion services deficit, and a NZ$0.46 billion current transfers deficit to give that current account deficit.
Encouraging signs
Despite the low level of New Zealand investment abroad, there were some encouraging recent examples of New Zealand firms investing overseas, particularly in China, English said.
"Fonterra has significant plans to increase the number of farms in China, a roughly NZ$50 million investment per farm. High-tech firm Rakon opened a US$35 million factory in Chengdu last year," he said.
"Real estate firm Richina has substantial holdings in both the commercial and residential sectors in China, with operations in both New Zealand and China. It also has plans to distribute a wide range of branded consumer products from different Kiwi suppliers."
FDI good for NZ
Despite bemoaning the lack of New Zealand investment abroad, English used the majority of his speech reiterating the benefits of foreign direct investment into New Zealand.
He used examples like Australian investment supporting the emergence of New Zealand's wine industry since the 1980s, and Japanese investment in the 1990s which helped introduce more value-added production and efficiency to the forestry industry.
"As a small country, we naturally rely on FDI to help us achieve economies of scale, and for access to ideas and consumer markets. We do not have the large stock of capital which older and wealthier countries have," English said.
Foreign direct investment had benefits for New Zealand in three broad areas: First, as a source of capital to supplement New Zealand’s domestic savings; Second, as a driver of growth in wages, employment and output; And third, for the transmission of technology, skills and know-how to New Zealand and for improving connections to valuable international markets.
New Zealand simply did not save enough to cover its investment needs, hence the current account deficit.
"Foreign investment can bring benefits that foreign borrowing does not. These benefits can be of particular value to a small economy, and include: FDI provides a stronger buffer against economic shock because investment comes without the fixed interest payments of debt; FDI produces transfers of technology and know-how, and provides access to international markets," English said.
"In 2008, Treasury concluded that foreign capital flows into New Zealand lifted incomes by around NZ$3,800 per worker between 1996 and 2006 in today’s prices, and lifted wealth by NZ$16,000 per person," he said.
"Foreign investors in New Zealand do take out some profits, but between 2006 and 2011 they have also reinvested about 25 per cent of their returns on equity back into New Zealand.
"New Zealanders interact with foreign-owned businesses every day. Over half of the companies larger than NZ$100 million in New Zealand have majority foreign ownership. Many of these companies are a familiar part of our national landscape, and provide Kiwis with a huge range of products and services. They are also among our largest employers. A recent study showed about a quarter of Aucklanders work for foreign owned companies," English said.
FDI, inward or outward, did not necessarily mean acquisition of full ownership by foreigners. In many cases it could take the form of a joint venture or partnership between New Zealand and foreign owners.
"And FDI is not a one shot deal. Businesses built up under foreign ownership can move or return to New Zealand ownership," English said, using the example of Shell petrol stations being bought by Z Energy (half owned by the Super Fund and Infratil.
If New Zealand could not access foreign investment the cost of capital would increase, constraining businesses’ ability to grow. That would reduce employment opportunities and household incomes, English said.
"Treasury has estimated that a permanent one percentage point change in interest rates (say, from 5 per cent to 6 per cent) would lower the level of GDP by about 2 per cent over a period of time. New Zealand’s standard of living would be lower without access to foreign investment," he said.
"FDI can have its costs. The quality of foreign investment matters, and New Zealanders care that investment goes to productive capital, and that it supports jobs and higher incomes. But fears of foreign ownership are frequently overstated. While it is true that the returns from foreign financing contribute to New Zealand’s current account deficit, it’s also important to consider the bigger picture," English said.
The outcome for the economy was positive overall when foreign capital raised worker productivity and national income increased by more than the return on the investment, he said.









60 Comments
The only way forward is the
The only way forward is the hard way. But it's got to be done. Personal savings, which will turn into national savings, will turn into both local and overseas investments.
What does Bill expect ? We
What does Bill expect ? We dont have compulsory superannuation contributions like everyone else in the OECD. As an island we are quite inwardly focussed so foreign investment is not really on the radar for most people , and many Kiwi's are poor savers anyway.
The government wanted more
The government wanted more New Zealand businesses to follow the lead of the Super Fund and KiwiSaver funds which were investing in overseas equity markets, he said.
You just have to laugh or it would be a case of tears all round.
Didn't Mr Chaston highlight Pimco's less than charitable view of historic equity returns in today's Top 10: - ref # 9?
This long-term history of inflation adjusted returns from stocks shows a persistent but recently fading 6.6% real return (known as the Siegel constant) since 1912 that Generations X and Y perhaps should study more closely. Had they been alive in 1912 and lived to the ripe old age of 100, they would have turned what on the graph appears to be a $1 investment into more than $500 (inflation adjusted) over the interim. No wonder today’s Boomers became Siegel disciples. Letting money do the hard work instead of working hard for the money was an historical inevitability it seemed.
Yet the 6.6% real return belied a commonsensical flaw much like that of a chain letter or yes – a Ponzi scheme. If wealth or real GDP was only being created at an annual rate of 3.5% over the same period of time, then somehow stockholders must be skimming 3% off the top each and every year. If an economy’s GDP could only provide 3.5% more goods and services per year, then how could one segment (stockholders) so consistently profit at the expense of the others (lenders, laborers and government)?
Bill English, forever on the lookout for something for nothing - he has been there before- right?
Are companies/trusts treated
Are companies/trusts treated differently to individuals in relation to investments overseas. If you have more than $50k invested offshore (excl Oz) don't you get hit with tax on 'unrealised capital gains'? That's quite a disincentive from where I sit.
I believe so, well it
I believe so, well it certainly is the case for local and foreign issued bonds that are bought at a discount to par and or rise in price from the purchase reference point - capital gains taxes at the effective marginal income tax rate are alive and well for individuals. Unrealised foreign exchange gains have to be added to the penalty. Not much incentive really. I guess there are forces at work making those draughty boxes on the hillside attractive.
Well, d'ooh! Bill NZ has a
Well, d'ooh! Bill
NZ has a kindly taxation system that allows full tax deductibility on the costs of acquiring & developing property, but doesn't tax the resulting capital gains.
And you wonder why Kiwis insist on continually pouring their money into rental properties, earning us zero external income, while financing it all from foreign borrowing?
The NZ system hardly encourages us to get into overseas investment. In fact, you would be a screw loose if you didn't grab the landlord subsidy.
You and John must be the only ones in the country to whom this is is a surprise
Our current account deficit
Our current account deficit is a huge problem with a projected $14,000,000,000 flowing to the foreign owners of our businesses and debt. So Foreign investment in NZ is a good thing? Apart from the two dubious examples quoted wouldn't we be better off owning our own big banks, insurance companies, forests, gold mines, oil industry, shopping malls, retailers, power companies, telecommunications outfits etc. Shouldn't our savings be going into Kiwi companies? According to Brownlee we're practically swimming in undiscovered oil and minerals but they're grovelling up to the likes of Petrobras and Sinopec to "invest" in stealing our assets. Makes no sense.
According to Bill we should be investing overseas instead, into equities of all things. Apart from the exposure to currency risks, why give my hard earned to the spivs on Wall Street or the City of London - a cross between a casino and straight out looting operation.
KD - the current account
KD - the current account deficit is NOT a huge problem, if one's regard for personal property rights is greater than one's regard for NZ's sovereignty - just keep selling chunks of NZ and she'll be right, maaate.
I'm coming to the conclusion that the likes of Bill English and NACT are becoming a clear and present danger to NZ's sovereignty. I don't see firm and effective evidence to the contrary.
Cheers, Les.
www.changenz.co.nz
Stand for parliament , Les ,
Stand for parliament , Les , and see if you can effect any change .....
....... seriously , if you & Hugh , and baby-boomer-bully Hickey , and one or two others with more brains than a gnat can get in , we'll receive better governance .....
Gnats and Lay-Bore, oy vey ...... what a choice !
I presume the $14b profit
I presume the $14b profit going offshore is the result of the company's making money on mainly exporting things. I wonder what the sums would be if they were not here, lost jobs, lost exports, lost tax etc.
I have no idea why you would
I have no idea why you would assume any such thing keriwin. Perhaps you would like to come back with some research. The current account deficit is largely comprised of interest payments and profits to foreign companies. The biggest chunk of the debt has been raised to fund housing, consumption and Government largess. The foreign owned companies are diverse but there are big chunks of investment in retail, shopping malls, banking, insurance and so on that are domestically focused.
Just to put this in context, we have a current account deficit forecast at around $14billion versus a trade surplus of one or two billion. If these guys are making heaps of money by exporting, the benefits are certainly not showing up on Kiwi balance sheets.
I am not assuming anything,
I am not assuming anything, I just said it would be interesting to know what the affect would be if they were not here.
Your source for that figure
Your source for that figure of $14 billion, please?
Also - who is this "we"? If you individually want to own shares in these various businesses you cite, you can. How are you, or "we", made better off if I ,as a New Zealander, own shares in them (which for all you know, I do)?
If you want to put your savings into a fund that invests in Kiwi companies, you have that option as well.
If by "we" you mean "the Government" - whether you and I are made better off as a result of Government owning these things depends on whether the Government manages them effectively so as to maximise their value, and spends the money that it earns from its ownership in ways that benefit us. Looking at the record of Governments around the world and throughout history, I cannot imagine why you would assume that this or any other Government would do either.
Treasury forecast the current
Treasury forecast the current account deficit to rise to 6.8% of GDP next year. GDP is currently $202B, say $210 (in 2013) x 0.068 that's $14.28 billion. We have a trade surplus of one or two billion so the forecast net deficit on investment income must be at least $14 - more like $16 billion. That deficit is funded by borrowing - shows up on Government and/or private balance sheets - or selling more of our dwindling assets.
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/economic_indicators/GDP/GrossDomesticProduct_HOTPMar12qtr.aspx
You'll have to ask Bill English who he is refering to when he says NZers should invest more overseas but I think he is talking about individuals and retirement funds etc., not central government. My investments are entirely with NZ infrastructure.
I was thinking the "we" was Kiwi individuals but I don't have a philsophical problem with Government investment in NZ. I would, for instance, by delighted if they partnered up with the likes of NZ Oil & Gas to help develop an oil field or two. Our SOE's are, by and large, succesful and well run companies that are returning a worthwhile return to us all. I don't share the view that Government ownership necassarily means some sort of Polish shipyard waste of space basket case.
Fine, you've put all your
Fine, you've put all your investment into NZ infrastructure. Let's assume you make good returns on that investment and so are individually better off than you would have been if you'd invested in a more internationally balanced way.
How does that make me - or "we" - better off than if the same investment had been made by a foreign firm?
I think you're both wrong.
I think you're both wrong. Our SOE's make a profit out of? Us. That's not a profit, it's a zero-sum game, regardless of whether the SOE does good stuff or not.
The expectation of returns, is the age old problem. It expects more and more bits of the planet to be available to be purchased. Expecting the remaining bits to get more expensive would negate the 'return' via iflation/bidding, no?
So you have the have a wee think about that glib 'better off'. Define please. Are you happy out-bidding others in a permanent-shortage situation? How long do you think they will let you do that? Could there not be a better approach?
Do you see it as a zero-sum
Do you see it as a zero-sum game if two people voluntarily agree to a trade? For example, if you, as a willing buyer, purchase something from me as a willing seller. Or if you prefer, let's leave money out of it altogether - I offer to trade you a widget for two flanges, you agree, the trade takes place.
The amount of widgets and flanges in the world is no greater than it was before the trade took place. You and I are nevertheless both now better off than we were before. We both now have something that we value more than we valued the thing which we exchanged for it - otherwise the trade would not have happened.
As for out-bidding others in a permanent-shortage situation - the very definition of a market. Prices and markets exist precisely because there is permanent shortage. There is not an unlimited supply of (insert practically anything) and therefore everybody cannot have as much (i.p.a.) as they want. The market mechanism, in which individuals decide for themselves how much they are willing to pay to acquire, and how much they are willing to accept to give up, (i.p.a.), is one way of determining who shall get how much (i.p.a.).
Certainly, other ways have been tried in which some central authority decides who shall get how much (i.p.a.). They've not been very successful.
If we both had to build a
If we both had to build a shirt and a pair of shoes, we have 2 shirts and 2 pairs of shoes. But I'm total crap at making shirts and at least average at shoes. So if you're willing to make 2 shirts, and trade one for shoes. Then I'm better off, and hopefully so are you.
It also means that I can learn more about shoe making, and invest in better shoe techniques. This would mean you get get a better deal for your trade, and I can accomplish it better, easier and faster.
This is wealth, value add all around and needs met.
despite it still only being 2 people, 2 shirts, and 4 shoes. That is heterogenesis in action, the results are not what goes in, and in this are an improvement of 1 + 1 = 3 nature, through specialisation.
Mist - some things you get
Mist - some things you get right, but you must have studied economics at some point - it's a bit of an intellectual boat-anchor, that one.
Makes folk trot out glib phrases like 'the economy', and 'better off'. Than what? Than who? Then you cloud it with 'investment'. Via debt? To date, almost all debt repayment has been a numerical/inflation exercise. Did you cost in the real extraction costs, and pollution costs, of your shoe-making machine? (I used to build tannery equipment, as it happens - gold contacts and rare earths.....)
Wealth is only the expectation that you can redeem it for something real. Don't make the mistake of assuming that because you can keep 'getting wealthy' in that manner, that the planet will do the physical underwrite. And the moment that it can't, you have bidding/inflation therefore not as much 'wealth' as you thought.
A process that has to accelerate.
I used to make medieval
I used to make medieval shoes.
From natural tanned leather. (Oak etc).
True, it's hard to find a decent bit of wire to make a steel needle, especially if one isn't using an easysew awl/bobbin.
Wealth is having shoes. Not wealth is getting cold wet feet for you and your family.
Check out how much "Wealth" the aspargus pickers in Greece have been getting. Check out the employment rates in some of the villages, or the housing rates. What about those shiny roads winding through the country sides past all those abandoned towns.... towns which have seen dozens of generations born and die. Yet for some reason, with all their modern advantages, the town builders, the artesians, the scholars who passed their time in those civilisations are now replaced by hoards of unemployed, by people claiming "austerity" is robbing them from a livelihood.
For me to give your model any merit PDK, you need to predict future events, give casual lead-ins and alternative turning points which stand up to observation. Not everyone can have a dam-able stream, a rich startup position, or the finance to buy a load of pv panels & the gear to go with them.
Better off. Means better off than yourself yesterday, or more importantly "pre-trade" in the simple example.
Economy is a broadbrush collective term that encompasses all markets. Without trade there is no market, with a market no economy. As soon as barter occurs be it labour for love, or any other exchange of resources, then there exists a market, and with that "an economy". And "investment" is any time a position is open with the hope of exchange - that which is a surrender of resource without such expectation it would be a gift. A gift with the hope of any kind of reciprocation is an investment of those surrendered resources. And time resources are surrendered, there are choices of where those resources could alternatively be spent. Do I spend my time here on this post, or should I have an early night. Either way it is a debt against my time resources. It may be a gift, or I might be expecting some result. Perhaps it is a high risk investment, maybe I consider the potential returns significant enough to surrender those resources. Maybe I just don't value my own time highly. Likewise, I might require more resources than I personally have available, thus I attempt leverage. *I* spend this time writing this post. PDK might read it, and might even reply, giving me return on my investment. However this site allows me to leverage my post, my time, against all those who can be bothered to read my postings. If 5% of them get a better idea on how to manage and leverage their own personal resources, including the resources of debt management skill; then the return from my small investment is significant.
Wealth is only those resources which are real, AND meet human needs. You could "own" the deeds for the Sydney Opera house and London Bridge, but that won't make you wealthy. You might owe half a million dollars, yet be able to employ a friend who needs a job; then you are wealthy.
Oh, and yeah I've studied
Oh, and yeah I've studied economics. It was a compulsory "Option" for a term during my third form year. The college wouldn't let me study it after that.
Although we briefly touched on it in the university Finance papers (didn't complete the degree).
Am I using it wrong?
"For me to give your model
"For me to give your model any merit PDK, "
Lets start from here,
I think maybe you are using the wrong word with "merit". We have used a tremendious amount of fossil energy bending nature or the physical planet to our will...and continue to consume fossil energy to hold it there. Once that energy goes into decline and its about now, nature will go back to doing as it wishes....I see that as irrifutable, rather than merit it simply will be.
"You need to predict future events"
Given all the unknowns the not least of which is human behavior its not possible in any detail. But I think the trend is going to be pretty clear...
"give casual lead-ins and alternative turning points which stand up to observation. "
Im not sure what you mean by alternative....observation goes back to human behaviour, if pppl dont want to see, they wont see.
Just look at Romney and Ryan, two extremists who are at the head of one of the 2 major political parties in the US. Yet roughly 50% of the population will blindly and willingly vote for them.....I mean they make Rodney Hide look like a Commie....Some choice, if Obama wins this stupidity will carry on....in a stagflation sort of way....If he loses the US will implode in civil war.....
"Not everyone can have a dam-able stream, a rich startup position, or the finance to buy a load of pv panels & the gear to go with them."
So those who see the change early will get the best seats.....
What is wealth? someone with the foresight to move with confidence based on what the see in the future....
In terms of making shoes I fully expect that such local artisans will make a come back....clogs are quite simple.....I guess there might be some good examples of Holland in WW2....must research that....
Fossil energy has allowed great specialisation, but worse over-population...both have to be and will be corrected. So simpler, less ppl....NZ is one of the few places with the about right numbers IMHO. My worry is the super-rich will see us as the lifeboat and jump in en-mass and our stupid Govn will let them in.......The others will be the ultra poor with nothing to lose in taking to the high seas, and we will have nothing or the balls to stop them....neither set is any net use to us.
regards
"Given all the unknowns the
"Given all the unknowns the not least of which is human behavior its not possible in any detail. "
Cop outs don't count steven.
Pick a microcosm, or admit your model is inaccurate.
Actually those with the best
Actually those with the best seats are likely to be the first against the wall when the revolution comes. ie people like to target the outsiders, and when things are grim thats anyone who isn't broke like them.
And the US elections are totally rigger. Even worse than our own. Pick candidates and that sets your position on the election questions (mandates). You can't pick and choose the mandates, only the party - and even then it's the Electorial College which chooses the pres anyway!
Fossil fuel, not oil, but coal, has certainly allowed over-population. In the advent of steel. This has been supercharging to our tool making brains. We can make factories, vehicles, light, fast, strong, durable. And low reactance alloys. With the production line came such huge reductions in costs (money & time to market). gone is the 4am to 9pm day for food makers and staff. In comes the refrigeration systems, the presses, the plastic moulding machines, the core parts for electrical generators, the heat resistant parts for forge equipment.
Refrigeration allows food to be kept so long, even in display cases. No longer do we spend time each day, just travelling to get gut supplies. Indeed we can process in our steel made factories, and dry or freeze fully or partially prepared cuts. The time savings there and the food quality is terrific.
Plastics is another bonus. As is concrete piping. Water, sewage pipe to and from your own abode. No more walking to a well or river for a hour or two a day just for necessities. Now you don't even need a well or clean river in walking distance at all - can you imagine that - not needing to live within easy walk of water supplies!! How can such dreams exist, surely that would just require too many men to dig (while their wives carry the water, wash the clothers and cook, and teach the kids).
Plastic for containers that have varying shelf-breathing lifespans. And so cheap, knocked out in their billions by the steel made factories. No longer having to go to the blacksmith, the carpenter, the tinker or the cooper just for containers which might take days to make individually. Poor glassblowers, imagine if they had to blow a bottle for every coke in the sales cabinet!
"You might owe half a million
"You might owe half a million dollars, yet be able to employ a friend who needs a job; then you are wealthy".
No, you are in debt.
"you need to predict future events".
That's easy: Is the current growth-requiring regime capable of being virtual? If it was, there would be no need to attack the RMA, push Aquaculture, push mining, Antarctic fishing, more roading...... we counld do it cyber-ly.
We can't, it apparently has to be physical. While lesser intellects might be fooled by the "X years resource" claims, not understanding the difference between growth and 'at current rates', the reality is that all finite resources deplete very quickly in the face of exponential growth.
Beyond the peak of extraction of whatever the linch-pin resource is (and I argue it's fossil fuels) your growth has to rely on efficiencies, and triage of discretionary activities. Both are diminishing-return slash finite arenas.
Which leaves your debt to pay your mate, unrepayable. Same as the Transport Agency, and for the same reason.
Economics fails as a discipline, by failing to understand that the required physical activity requires energy, and that the laws of thermodynamics are immutable. Maybe it has some post-peak use, in tracking the down-side, but I doubt we'll get there. More likely, there will be serious wars over real resources, a reduction in population in the process, and a clean-slate start (winner will deny debt, loser will lose resources).
(a) Debt is not frightening
(a) Debt is not frightening to some of us, PDK. So its wealthy. Or are you naive enough to think that in this veil of tears You can actually "Own" (not leasehold) anything. From the moment you got a gut and lungs, you are in debt...or dead. For the return, you get life, at least for a while.
(b) Oh gosh all the resources disappear... and get changed into.... Again scary for those with rich lifestyles.
(c) Its not fossil fuels, not that thats not a maturing market. It's bureaucracy. If you trace the fractal patterns and celluar growth there are definate patterns. During times of surplus, mutations (physical, behavioural) thrive, during downturns the mutations which can not receive enough resource, fade out. Sometimes all together, leaving vacancy in the resource chain.
In the inital stages of any system, the hard times mean survival and growth are primary consumptive practices. As resources become more plentiful, surplus is observed, this allows heirarchy and specialisation to occur. The Traditional ways that were "monkey see, monkey do", to perpetuate survival, are bypassed by specialised behaviours. Workers, Raiders, Guards, Planners. These develop because they can provide net increase in productivity. If they do not produce that effect, the specialist cells and those supporting them fail to produce enough to survive and that fractal arm fades.
There are further observable steps, but it reaches a point that the overheads consume more that they create - of course those doing the job may not realise this, as they're cells in a greater being, focused only on their specialised task, reliant on the whole systemic health. But when the head of a highly developed system starts to concume poorly, then the poison and imbalance spreads, and the network of cells are likely to fade away with it.
Their is nothing sad or fearful about such change. It is just the natural fractal pattern evolving. Those who maintain fit, low consumption, low pollution systems tend to thrive longer.
But (d) Thermodynamics is a large field, and tends to forget some of the higher information issues. ie it will predict either narrow behaviour or massive statistical behaviour, but it is not contextual. Humanity is only a small part of the equation, pissing in the corner of a pond might make it nasty to swim in, but does not effect the entire pond overly much. And yes there will eventually be serious wars over resources, and some pretty scary weapons that make nukes look like bb guns will appear. Again unless some folks wise up first. But most won't they do as most animals do. Consume all available resources, until the local habitat fails, and then they'll start dying. They did it on Easter Island, and they'll do it elsewhere. But again, you still seem to think this natural progression of events is somehow a bad thing, or that economically it's not factored in. Why not take a short position on a fading company?
too many words. I could
too many words.
I could pick you had debt, by your need to argue for a scenario where it can be repaid.
You might want to think on that.
The curently-held debt, including yours, is not redressable. Steve Keen is correct on that. What happens to it is an interesting question - I suspect an up-the-chain hoovering, poor getting poorer, middle-class hollowed-out, banks last one standing.
Good luck.
Aww poor PDK. Yes I have
Aww poor PDK.
Yes I have debt. Large amounts of it. I don't need a scenairo "where it can be repaid".
If you'd been able to follow some of my points over the last couple of months you would understand that "debt" does not need to be repaid. Only serviced.
Why the heck would my creditor want the debt repaid?? Then they'd have to find a new investment!!
It is far better for all parties to manage the debt properly, as a resource, not as a burden.
This is something you need to realise. Especially if you want to be taken seriously, and if you don't want to mislead people by your willful ignorance in the matter (debt handling).
As for redressable. That would infer repayment. As indicated, why? Far better for both sides of the investment to keep things ticking along.
I would explain more but it appears you don't have the intelligence or scientific mein to delve into the complexities of the actual system and it's flows. That is understandable as it took me years to figure out myself. Although if you aren't prepared to get a proper understanding of how these things work, you might want to back of your 'position of faith' on how evil it is. With the hardline "it's all evil" and a refusal to understand the nature of what you're bashing, you're going to be looking like the Westboro Baptists. PrettyDamnKwick.
Yes there will be attempts to
Yes there will be attempts to 'service' the cumulative debt.
That will/has-already included the inevitable reduction of CB lending rates to effectively zero. Which won't be enough, and we are starting to see folk putting their 'wealth' into less-than-zero return form.
But a growth-requiring system can't carry on i negative territory. Your debt will be called in, part of that upward hoover, via those punters happy with a less-but-real return, than none.
Don't waste tme arguing here, back to your paddock. When the payment for your output drops below the cost of servicing your debt, you're gone.
" When the payment for your
" When the payment for your output drops below the cost of servicing your debt, you're gone."
You really do need to learn about market behaviours and stop reading the media.
First up: I have multiple income streams (diversification).
Second: failure of several of these will not impact the others (isolation).
Third: Some of these act as hedging positions (as payment goes down in quarter - eg the farm, income goes up in other quarters.)
Fourth: My consumption is even lower than yours. (comp[ulsory margin requirement)
Fifth: Most of my investments are currently over 50% equity. (usable margin). So if payment drops below cost, which it almost has, then I can quite easily fund it, like other farmers do, from sacrificing portion of yield on equity.
Sixth: I have a few short positions, If the payment drops to nothing, I clean up very nicely. So if the bank gets a run and fails, then they'll use my stored "equity" to match my "debt" position. I'll lose some potential gains, but that's just part of the retracement process in the market, so no big deal, and it's already factored in on the risk. I'm in a position to take advantage of that kind of movement
Seventh: You _really_ need to learn something about marketing, finance and market behaviours PDK. It's a subset, not a closed system (ie it has outside inputs). It behaves more like liquid dynamics than pure energy. And it has naturally occurring low and high pressure spots, unlike the theoretical engineering diagrams. And there are hetrodyne effects (one of which I exploit). There's no use saying a radio is useless because one day the batteries will go flat. There's a lot of "informational" space between start and finish, a whole lot more than you're allowing for. And yes, sometimes reception might suck, but that's life, you want constant love and happiness, buy a dog.
Good luck with all
Good luck with all that.
I'll stick to relating to the real planet, and how much is left of it. I wouldn't be in debt beyond peak energy - the goal-posts have to recede at increasing speed from there on.
or - all bets are off. That includes your 50%.
50% equity, well all I can
50% equity, well all I can say is I have 90% and Im worried its too much debt....
Consider what your business is worth ie net output if it has to go organic and some of your land is used to make your bio-deisel....d
Its worth way less I'd say.
regards.
If it was all in farm, then
If it was all in farm, then yes I'd be worried. And since I used 2 tonne of Nitrogen inputs last year on a total of 105 hectare, organic fert doesn't really worry me much. And I doubt they'll outlaw medicines for cows - although its tempting just to get around the red tape.
And conversion to bio-diesil wouldn't be a problem. Getting cost effective soil food for the bio-diesil area would be more of a hassle, althoug most of could probably be got from the cows. At least going from breakeven dairying to marginal or breakeven biodiesil would require less getting up in the early morning for my effluent shower.
10% could be too much debt, depending on where you're going. For much of my setups 90% equity would be drastic overcapitalisation, the yield would be in <1% and I'd be better off using the extra money to pay off debt. With the way they're setup the yield is acceptable, and debt burden lines up with income quite nicely. If the market shifts, the income will only fluctuate moderately. If the value drops, I gain higher yield/leverage effect vs other opporunities. If the value rises, my yield goes down, but my equity rises, eventually to a point where disposal/closing the position is worthwhile as I have hit what I consider a maximum reasonable value. This would generally be well over the 80% equity mark. Most of this is compounding reinvestment, and not just market shift & inflation. The longer it's left, the more principle is paid off, the more equity to act as security elsewhere. Where security & leverage reach a point where they can be invested to give a return where the servicing of the investment AND the previous step, are less than the projected outcomes, we ratchet it forwards and start a new position; although seldom in the same way or market segment. Generally the new project "pays off" the previous within a couple of years, but in reality that's just a savings effect for parking capital until next time. Normally by then it's not worth holding on to the minor asset as the yield, as mentioned, is insignificant for the equity invested.
But if you're looking at sitting and owning. The 50% debt is a heavy load, and costs considerable personal consumption.
MdM - A physical barter I
MdM -
A physical barter I have less problem with, than a 'profit-take'. The items existed (presumably) to be traded. They may not have been valued porperly though - indeed almost certainly weren't. To value physical items properly, the wider impacts of their extraction, processing, manufacture and pollution have to be FULLY mitigated in a physical sense. (We don't go near that - look at the climate-change denial, it's all about ducking the cost).
But when profit is talked of, we're in a different ball-game. That is an expectation that more can be 'bought', physically. It is an artificial expectation, the underwrite has real limitations.
It's Soddy, Positive Pigs and Negative Pigs, 1926.
But when it is an energy system, which supplies a nation with electricity, then it will do the physical supplying whether it's voluntarily-personed, whether privately owned, or Govt. If a 'profit' is made from the 'shareholders', to whom the 'profit' goes, then it's horseshit. A zero-sum game. Claiming that 'they are successful because they make a profit', is incorrect. Two entries cancelling each other out in the same ledger.
In a trading system the items
In a trading system the items are never valued correctly. One party thinks they're worth more than they are worth (thus buys), the other has less value to them personally (eg they might have a room fill of the same item, that they're storing, and can't ever use that many, certainly not at this time) so to them the value is less. So which is the "correct" value? The production cost, the usable return, the value of manufacture (considering everything stems from human time investment). Just what value is a "nail" (ie "for want of a nail, a horseshoe was lost - from the old childrens' story).
Re: comments of "value physical items properly". PDK, you seem to be confusing the "value" of an item, with it's "cost". Admittedly Marx had a similar problem, although he was writing in the early days of forensic examination of market forces. I was was to follow the example you use, some items would actually end up with a negative cost, as so much of the plant and system is used and even returns positive effects to where it is manufacture. Clover growth is an example - and yes to get it to the cities often involves a factory step, which the city population like to blame the production side for, rather than accept all "wider impacts" are due the consumers choice, not the producers.
As for the rest. When are you personally going to build a power station? One capable of supplying a minimum of 30k residentals. Are you going to supply it from your own pocket? Then supply the electricty at cost of production? Didn't think so. That's a danger of self-production and the isolation which comes from self-sufficiency; it shrinks the world to petty and personal items, and in a heavily populated world that's very dangerous.
To take on works that size requires huge amounts of capital, which means many investors. Investors aren't going to forgo the use of their resource streams for nothing - even those that gift them frequently expect some recognition or say.
The government moving to mixed ownership model, is BS. But it's their call. There are certain financial philosophies which recommend it. And it will be successful - once you understand what the government is trying to achieve. They are attempting to resurrect the NZX. Nothing else. The NZX is populated by holding companies, dogs and non-performers. There are a few gems in there, but they're not really moving much. So the whole thing is comparatively illiquid, flat, stale, and shallow. Things like Kiwisaver, or Superfunds, have trouble in the NZX because there's little voilatility and they're the bull in a china shop. Just looked what happened to that Daycare outfit when the government fund went there, and when they left. The warp on the shareprice change just about killed the company.
By introducing some solid infrastructure, which is stable, has some returns, is big enough to take a few large investors. Then it will put a little depth into the NZX. The deeper the NZX, the more other investors will be encouraged to pump some funds in. That will provde liquidity, and share price increases. A share price increase will allow NZ companies to use their shares/share releases as an asset,as they will be able to get a premium of share value - and it also allows them a stronger equity:debt position, and a stronger security value to insulate them vs short term revenue dips (the latter being an issue with debt funding)
Indoctrinated. Unpin the
Indoctrinated.
Unpin the ideology.
If you don't include the real cost (pollution mitigation and all) in the 'value', then you're in cloud cuckoo land. Playing a not-real game. Soddys negative pigs territory.
We do a lot of things which have a real negative cost - how long can that continue? And then ask "when?"
For indoctrination it
For indoctrination it presumes expose to doctrine to start with, no?
We include the majority of the real cost, but the cost is not the value. In fact if the cost is the value, the system is failing (in decline).
It appears that you're presuming a closed system, and that the entire population is completely affected, and that a 100% conversion is desirable. Yet have yet to establish why any of these constraints are relevant or contextually meaningful. It's almost if you're apply thermodynamic laws, then thinking everything should stop because the rules predict lossy transactions.
You seem to have forgotten that some change is acceptable, that systems evolve, the maxwell's demon requires feeding. And that a light bulb in the hand is worth two in the bush. (ie position and access have informational value, whereas events themselves (or products themselves) have little or negative value. It can continue\, with adaption, for as long as it matters. If that scares you then become a hermit, live in animal clothes in some backwoods shack, with no communication technology and only what your own hands can create and grow. Really none of us will mind. Although I'll point out, that your freezers refrigerant didn't design and make itself - neither did you computing or LED technology, and candles convert oxygen which animals need to breathe. So you'd better get rid of those too.
Personally I'm for reducing cost. But since I've got a long way before I get close to what some folks have enjoyed (eg making and playing with boats, nice cars, time off enjoying leisure activities) then I think I'll wait until they cut their usage first. And if they don't, we'll see who can adapt fastest first (them with their leisure, or me with my skills).
And considering I understand how to leverage resources (not just cash, and not just my own efforts) it's not really worrying me much.
" It's almost if you're apply
" It's almost if you're apply thermodynamic laws, then thinking everything should stop because the rules predict lossy transactions".
close.
for 'should', read 'will'.
Good luck with your debt. :)
do you understand how lead
do you understand how lead and lag work in inductive circuits?
I don't understand the
I don't understand the distinction you are making between a "physical barter" and a "profit-take". In both cases, both parties exchange something they have, for something else that they value more. In both cases, both parties are better off than they were before as a result.
I don't have a problem with the external costs of extraction, processing, manufacture and pollution being internalised in the price of an item. On the contrary, I am strongly in favour of it, as are most economists. That is the purpose of market-based mechanisms such as the Emissions Trading Scheme.
Well you should. I trade an
Well you should. I trade an item in my hand for one in yours, no problem (the limits to growth of that activity will be when one essential resource is not available). If you add a profit charge, you expect to increase the amount in-hand next time, and it's represented by debt held by the other party. (if it was underwritten cash, go back to my first sentence). The debt is an expectation of a draw-down from the future. There is no guarantee - no linkage - that the physical world will be able to deliver. Unlike the in-hand proof that the present transaction can be delivered.
ETS? a classic example of economics horseshit. The physical dilemma is that we need to reduce the real amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. That can be done two - and only two - ways. One is ceasing (not reducing, that's too slow) our emissions. Your economic system couldn't survive that. The other is sequestering - in a real, not virtual manner - the C02. That requires energy - the very thing creating the problem. So you have to triage what you are doing, to fix what you're doing, and you expect to grow meantime?
Bollocks.
The physical problem gets worse - existing forests aren't sinks, they're zero-sum games. New forests are the only way to increase sequestration - but you have to keep their carbon sequestered - yeah right. Then the question is of acreage - and there isn't the acreage on the planet, to sequester what we put out.
Don't give me the 'at a certain price, a way will be found', crap. We're out of time for that, by the time we are 2deg hotter, your 'market' would be so stressed, that it won't signal anything. What we will get, from here on in, is an energy-constrained lack of, then negative supply of, growth. The continued bleating will be that we have to get wealthier, before we can address the issue. We won't get wealthier, so we won't address it.
Economics as it is currently set up - growth-requiring - can't survive permanent contraction.
Your idea of what economics
Your idea of what economics is about is, if I might say so, an extremely narrow one, apparently deliberately designed so that you can disagree with it. Please don't ascribe to me ownership of, and responsibility for, so circumscribed and distorted a view.
Economics is/was an
Economics is/was an artificial, man-made tracking system. It had to be growth-fitting, as that was what was happening at the beginning of the Gaussian..
It's relativity to, and ability to anticipate, real stuff in the real world beyond peak, is approximately nil.
PDK, your description of
PDK, your description of economics is incorrect.
A scientist or engineer who possesses an incorrect theory will test and discard the false parts of the model.
Economics is observation of value within a system. It is not man-made/artifical in any way. A flowerbed with nutrients, will predispose some plants to thrive and others to do less well. This is resource observation. The plants that do well will produce more litter and drive roots deeper, and tend to have better reproductive success than those in less resource yielding areas. That doesn't mean they will be the only plants which survive. It does mean that they will attract acertain share of parasite and be resistant to certain bacterial exposures. These are all economic forces. The more prosperous the plants, the more litter, the more bees they can support. The resource flow can be observed, so can the health of the entities and their prosperity. And the more litter and bees, the more nutrients within the flowerbed. Some weeds will occur, strong plants will compete with them - over reliance on weedkiller or human intervention will result in plants which can't stand on their own. However if the information requirement, maxwells demon, says you want a difficult weaker type of flower to dominate, then it will require a heavier amount of intervention.
The wage slave, the worker bee, the technician, the wageslave; do not have perspective on the flowerbed but that does not mean it does not exist.
"Economics is observation of
"Economics is observation of value within a system. It is not man-made/artifical in any way".
Ok, maybe I should say that the growth-based fiscal system cannot continue in a finite sphere of operations, and that economics, as taught, doesn't acknowledge this. Show me the economist who understands that we are entering a permanent down-side! Herman Daly and? I rest my case.
depends on whether you're
depends on whether you're paying a higher cost (profit take or inefficiencies) for your alterative investment vs. the same for the foreign investment that you are consuming from.
Pushing your consumption cost lower will up your yield.
Both parties pushing their production cost lower will increase profitability...except in the consumer feedback loop. Thats the Butterfly's Wing, reduce the wage to the consumer, your profits will echo the change.
Working out what is actual wages back through the loops, and what is not, can be interesting.
"the Butterfly's Wing" which
"the Butterfly's Wing" which when they say that the top 1% has taken all the gains for the last 30 years neatly explains why the economy has sagged without more and more debt.
regards
Do you not know how the
Do you not know how the Butterfly Effect in Chaos theory works?
It is a small seemingly insignificant event, like breathing on a microphone which is too close to a speaker. A little change meaningless out of context, gets reverberated through the system, growing stronger each time it passes through the feedback loop. It also implies the initial stimuli comes from outside the loop, at least for the observation time.
English - If you want Kiwi's
English - If you want Kiwi's to invest offshores then stop taxing them to death.
Many people in NZ struggle just to make ends met. Only a few have high paying employment, and the IRD etc are working out plans how to pull down business and trust owners. To invest one needs surplus funds.
It is the government policy that encourages foreign investment because the governments eyes light up when foreigners flash cash. (eg the Crafer saga). Thus it is governments rulings, your department English!!, that rewards foreign debt and penalises Kiwi's for having anything. You want Kiwis buying overseas, halve the tax rate on the returns.
* and attempting to make other investments look better by fking up the property market DOES NOT WORK. At best it penalises those who have invested already (the very people you want to have surplus as they investors not lifestyle importers!), very likely just to pass on costs to tenants, and at worst reduce any security value that our investors require for anchor investments prior to taking on risker elephants.
Ah, a discussion about who
Ah, a discussion about who owns the deckchairs, but these ones are on the Carpathia.
Which sank on 17 July, 1918.
Seems to me you're better in physical proximity to your assets, more chance of retaining control. Who would be a shareholder in an NZ company which re-established on the Texas/Mexico border, for instance?
"Which sank on 17 July,
"Which sank on 17 July, 1918."
And still has better returns than a extra pair of gumboots that have to be stored until needed.
What is his problem?, is not
What is his problem?, is not a farm, and expense accounts, a taxpayer funded home, or two...or more , a wasted Salary and a double dipped pension not enough for the poor bloke.
These entitlements and rules that he and his cronies made are not the simple working mans dream.
IT IS PUTTING FOOD ON THE TABLE...@ 15%GST on top of EVERY DOLLAR TAXED AT SOURCE.
IT IS PAYING FOR HIS RATES...ANOTHER TAX......OVERDONE...OVER BLOWN AND WASTED.......MOSTLY.
IT IS PAYING FOR HIS OVER INDULGED PUBLIC SERVANTS....ANOTHER TAX ON HIS EFFORTS.
He even paid for VALERIES GOLD.......but at least that was good publicity from a MAN MADE..................PRODUCT. (A joke if ya can see the truth in it).
AND SHOULD HE EVER SAVE A CENT...THEN THEY WILL TAX THAT TOO.
(But that will be of little interest soon).
DUMB AND DUMBER...SHOULD LIVE THE LIVES OF A WORKING MAN...FOR A YEAR.
BEFORE THEY BEMOAN........ANOTHER .......CAPITAL.........NOTION.
TO FUND THEIR IDEALS.........AND PERSONAL WEALTH......
No small wonder No- Zeal-and is poor and invests mostly in indulging themselves with the necessities of life....and a decent (nay Leaky)...roof over their heads and an increased Insurance Policy.
(Cos they bailed out the Insurance co......with his money...another double dipper).
Cos the Overheads have an Inflated ego, inflated sense of their own importance and inflated worth, porking the system....and insider trading and and and and...
NOT SEEING THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER....
THEY ARE THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM......and they probably get that on their overseas Jaunts........to boot.
Where as the Working Man has to pay his way.....and his families too...
UNLIKE A GOLD DIGGER .......MP with an self imposed FLY BUY plan...........imposed by them selves....For life.
All fact......no spin, no...axe to grind.
Why work, be happy........and sod the lot of em.
Never worked a sodding day in their lives.....but expects others to invest...in HIM....and them......and overseas.......and all on the average wage.
Whilst some are working the system...for life.....and that includes the Banks who screwed the whole World....with their con-nivance.
CRETINs..........if I may be so bold.....the only clean word ...that applies.
You don't have a chip on your
You don't have a chip on your shoulder by any chance do you???
I say , steady on , old bean
I say , steady on , old bean .... Sore-loser doesn't have chip on his shoulder ..
....... he has two chips ! ...... our boy is very well balanced .......
And nice to see that the bold and the CAPS-LOCK are back !
..... shout the message till you're horse , me old chum ....... Tell the party pooper hike-it-HICKEY to go & throw himself to the wolves at the FBI ....
If you are reffering to
If you are reffering to Moi, I just like to tell my version of the truth in a ranting fashion.
Not much point in sane dissemblings in this insane environment.
The banks that I discussed these same things with today, all seem very, very, wary of what is going on and who is pulling whos strings and why.
If any of it is disputable, please feel free to let me know.
I have done quite well over the years for knowing what is wrong and right.
And I do not mean monetarily, though it always has a bearing.
And knowing who is suckered and by whom, helps throughout life.
It pains me to see the results of the stupidity of man and what it will do to the next generation.
All in the name of greed and avarice.
Some people will do anything for money.
Some people will do anything to stay in power.
Some just like the sport.
Me I just hate being taken for a sore-loser.
But then I have many aliases.
And use many different blogs.
It all helps in the long run.
And yes I do have a chip on each shoulder.
It helps to keep me balanced.
I just hate most Poll-lies and Bwankers.
And knowing which to trust and discount.
English has it right - of
English has it right - of course the average NZer should be diversifying their savings outside of NZ.
BUT if he's really serious about this, he needs to show it by removing the stupid Cullen tax regime that taxes foreign investments outside of Australasia differently.
If you are referring to the
If you are referring to the FDR then I agree
A piece of legislation that is designed to discourage investors from investing in overseas shares.
The FDR makes it far too hard to invest in the next microsoft or next apple.
Yes, that's what I'm
Yes, that's what I'm referring to (and the rules around FIFs and CFCs). Both the system and the rates are a disincentive for the average NZer to invest/ diversify overseas. This particular piece of tax legislation is one of the key reasons why I have lived outside of NZ for the past 12 years (despite the tax break on offer for the first few years one gets on upon returning).
They know this, I can't
They know this, I can't understand how they can have so little conscience when they speak.
Who will stop the
Who will stop the megalomaniac’s in this country - driving the majority of the NZpopulation, tax- and ratepayers into bankruptcy ?