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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; confidence slumps, housing consents disappoint, non-housing consents jump, debt rises fast, swap rates rise

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; confidence slumps, housing consents disappoint, non-housing consents jump, debt rises fast, swap rates rise

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no rate changes announced today.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
UDC, ANZ, F+P Finance, RaboDirect and CU South all cut term deposit rates and selected savings account rates.

'EXTRAORDINARY ORDINARY'
The ANZ business confidence survey lost more momentum in June. Non-agriculture sectors lost their positivity. But there were no signs of weakening inflation. Market reaction to this downgrade was surprisingly muted. Eyes are now on Tuesday’s QSBO for a cross-check to confirm these weaker confidence readings.

OK, EXCEPT IN AUCKLAND
Building consents approved in May were average, except in Auckland. The Queen City's housing crisis has intensified (excuse the pun) as new dwelling consents dropped sharply.

BIG PROJECTS IN PIPELINE
Building consents for other-than-housing was up strongly, year on year. That growth was +31% growth, primarily driven by a rise in hospital consents, while factory consents also recorded a large increase. Hotel consents were at their highest monthly level for three years.

MORE TO COME
The Government today said it would spend $13.9 bln over the next three years on transportation projects, a +15% increase compared with the previous three years. A third will be spent in Auckland, and $2 bln will go into public transport projects (that will all require ongoing subsidies, mainly by local authorities). Cycleways will get $251 mln. Fortunately fewer than half the Northland pork-barrel budges promised in the recent by-election will get funded.

DEBT STILL POPULAR
Debt growth is now growing as fast as at any time since the GFC. Momentum in housing credit growth is picking up, according to the RBNZ data for May. At +5.4% year-on-year, that is the highest growth rate in more than a year. Growth in business and rural credit is slowing but both sectors are still positing year-on-year growth faster than housing. Fixed mortgage loans now account for 74.3% of all loans. But loans that will reset with one year are unchanged at 53% of all loans.

FATTER HOUSEHOLD BANK A/Cs
Household bank accounts are rising at +10.6% pa according to the May data. That may seem remarkable - it does to me - and it has been like this all year. The M3 money supply is rising faster than +8% pa.

SOCIAL BENEFITS
Tomorrow a raft of policy changes come into effect. They include:
- all children under 13 will get free GP visits and prescriptions,
- the average ACC motor vehicle levy will fall from around $330 to $195 per year,
- paid parental leave payments will increase to $516.85 gross per week.

WHOLESALE RATES RISE
Swap rates rose today after being quite weak overnight. And this is in spite of the Greek crisis risks. The rises were +2 to +4 bps - not huge, but remarkable in the circumstance of the background news.. The 90 day bank bill rate gave up -2 bps which is means it is back to Friday's level again.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The NZ dollar basically held its levels today, avoiding Greek and China fallout. Against the greenback it is at 68.1 USc, at 88.8 AUc, but is stronger against the euro at 60.8 euro cents. The TWI is 71.9. Check our real-time charts here.

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9 Comments

Could the growth of household deposits be in part due to people selling up to foreign buyers in Auckland, people selling up and moving out of Auckland or just the start of the baby boomer property sell down in general?

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Where does money come from? In the modern economy, most money takes the form of bank deposits. But how those bank deposits are created is often misunderstood. The principal way in which they are created is through commercial banks making loans: whenever a bank makes a loan, it creates a deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money. Read more

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US now matching up with China on cost in the manufacturing game.

"BCG’s "Made in America, Again" project found that the estimated average manufacturing cost structure for the U.S. in 2015 is within 5% of China’s and 10-20% lower than major European economies."

https://www.bcgperspectives.com/Images/America%27s%20Unconventional%20E…

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Even several years ago it was becoming cheaper to make steel in the USA than make it in china and ship it to the USA.

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As the Chinese demand higher wages they will slowly price themselves out of areas where manufacturers can compete with technology, people power will become redundant hence why China is trying to transform its economy to a service industry based one

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One last gasp of the oil age. They will waste that last chance in BAU rather than move away from fossil fuels to new energy sources.

Really this piece looks like work bought for by the oil industry and get rich quick merchants.

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Let me guess you banged out a couple comments bothering to even look at the ES or ToC. Or perhaps you just missed Chapter 5 - THE TRANSITION TO A LOWER-CARBON, CLEANER-ENERGY FUTURE.

"The cost of renewables, particularly solar, is likely to
continue to fall dramatically over the next 10–15 years.
Our estimates show that the average utility-scale solar
installation is likely to reach cost-parity with natural
gas-fired power within 10–30 years, varying by state
circumstances.152 And these averaged figures understate
the future competitiveness of renewables in some cases.

Renewables, then, are likely to become both the cleanest
and the most cost-competitive power generation source
by 2050, even without legislation that limits carbon
emissions.
Other technological trends will improve the economic
viability of renewables even further. Distributed energy
resources, like rooftop solar, are already economic for
some homeowners and businesses. That opens up a
direct consumer market for renewables."

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I did actually say the last gasp, of course it depends how you want to read the timescale they think is OK. On top of that US gas is a lot cheaper for now than anywhere else. So the effect on NZ? doesnt apply here now does it?

Meanwhile in Germany they are putting in massive solar and the power prices are way down making it cheaper for businesses.

Oh and lower carbon and cleaner ie use Ngas is actually being questioned where its fracked.

--edit--

Also the environmental damage,

http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/06/25/epa-fracking-study-close-look-numb…

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Laughable. German coal use is at its highest in 25 years despite sinking billions into solar. What a model to highlight.

What not post the actual EPA ground water study rather than some desmog tripe?
http://ofmpub.epa.gov/eims/eimscomm.getfile?p_download_id=523076

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