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English warns highly indebted home buyers about risks of higher interest rates and lower net migration; says ANZ's tightening of lending criteria suggests market near 'risky level'; doesn't want US, Irish-style slump

English warns highly indebted home buyers about risks of higher interest rates and lower net migration; says ANZ's tightening of lending criteria suggests market near 'risky level'; doesn't want US, Irish-style slump

By Bernard Hickey

Finance Minister Bill English has warned highly indebted home buyers that a forecast sharp fall in migration at the same time as rising interest rates could put them under pressure.

English pointed to ANZ's tightening of lending criteria (reported here at Interest on Friday) as a sign that even the nation's largest bank is being more cautious about a market that could be nearing its peak and was at a 'risky level.'

English said it was up to the Reserve Bank to signal to banks or to change its regulations to tighten lending if it was concerned about risks to financial stability and he was unaware of any signalling by the Reserve Bank.

"They've (the RBNZ) signalled pretty clearly their concern about the link between very rapid house price growth and pressure that might create in the financial system, and in the past they've generally acted to deal with that," English told Interest when asked if the Reserve Bank had asked banks to tighten lending criteria.

The Reserve Bank has begun early discussions with English to add a debt to income multiple limit to its existing macro-prudential policy toolkit, which has to be agreed with English. Mortgage lending growth accelerated in April to an annual rate of 8.3%, its fastest growth rate since June 2008. Double digit house price inflation has spread over the last year from Auckland to much of the rest of the country as equity-rich Auckland investors and first home buyers pushed out of the more expensive markets have competed prices higher, funded with strong lending growth.

Reserve Bank figures show investor lending in Auckland rose 48% to NZ$1.623 billion in April from February and made up 46% of the lending in Auckland. A pre-emptive slowdown in lending by banks ahead of mooted new lending controls would also be consistent with what happened before the first two rounds of Loan to Value Ratio controls in November 2013 and November 2015 as the Reserve Bank moved to ensure banks stuck to the spirit of the impending changes and avoided a last minute rush of lending before new rules applied.

On Friday, ANZ tightened its lending criteria through mortgage brokers for rental property investors and owner-occupier borrowers by reducing its Loan To Value Ratio limits, and by stopping lending to investors wanting to buy sections and apartments off the plan.

English said he expected banks and borrowers to both take into account the risks that house prices could fall if net migration slumped and interest rates rose.

"I'd expect the financial system to take account of the inherent risk of rapidly rising house prices. Particularly the buyers," English said.

"The buyers need to pay attention to the fact that interest rates will inevitably rise even if in the next couple of years they can't see that happening quickly. The debt related to mortgages lasts a long time," he said.

"Buyers who are really stretching themselves when interest rates are the lowest they've been in 50 years just need to be understand the risk of the pressure that might come if the interest rates go up," he said.

"If ANZ are tightening their criteria, they are making that decision presumably to mitigate risks they see arising in the market. That should tell buyers something that if one of our larger lenders sees risks that mean that they're tightening up their criteria, then maybe the market is getting to a bit of a risky level."

Migration could fall to 12,000

Treasury forecast in the Budget that net migration would fall from a peak of 70,700 in June 2016 to 12,000 by June 2019, while at the same time the 90 day bill rate would rise by 1.1% to 3.7%, suggesting a rise in mortgage rates to over 5%.

English said that net migration had probably peaked and interest rates could rise in future.

"If they're (ANZ) taking measures to restrict lending independent of the regulator, that tells you they probably perceive that some of the lending looks a bit over-stretched and it stands to reason if you've got investors with very high levels of debt against the assets and new home buyers are really stretched on their incomes if interest rates rise, which is inevitable, then they could find themselves in two or three years time pretty stretched," he said.

"The RBNZ has made it pretty clear that it sees risks to the financial system if this process keeps going and it sounds like the ANZ is tightening up a bit. There's risk for people who are entering the market when it's been rising rapidly for a while and at very low interest rates," he said.

"You can see a scenario out in front where migration does drop off, where interest rates start rising and reducing demand and with higher debt, then people could find themselves pretty stretched."

English said the Government preferred a more stable market and warned that fast-rising markets could also fall quickly.

"We'd prefer it to be a stable market. It's well understood around the world that housing markets that rise very fast can drop fairly fast. They certainly don't keep rising forever. In some countries that's had a fairly big effect. We don't want to see that here."

Last week English warned first home buyers about the risks of buying into the Auckland market.

"Right now they do need to be careful about buying at what could be the peak of the market," he said.

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133 Comments

Pretend to care.....leading up to the election eh Bill?

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What FM is saying that in 2019 migration will slow n also jnterest will go up so still have3 more years to speculator to make the median houseinauckland ftom a million to 1.5 million, if not 2 milion. Still no pro active measures by govt but only supply n now inmigration that too becsuse both sre long termsolution n govt is in no mood to stopthe rising house price now. Shame n pity

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Just preparing the excuses for when sh1t does hit the fan.

Then they can say any of the following:

RBNZs fault for not telling banks to be so risky with their lending and bringing about financial instability...cos banks should rely on the RBNZ to decide on whether or not to lend.
Govt. told buyers to beware of an over inflated market - though this is the first time they've acknowledge anything remotely precarious about the housing market.
Migration was forecast to fall so we had no need to implement migration restrictions to make it fall even harder and faster.

This is politics after all people...deny til you die, and then blame someone else.

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Thanks to the Auckland idiots so long as you've borrowed to buy property yielding over 6% net then you'll be sweet. The dumb aucklanders borrowing millions for houses either returning net 2% or worse 0% (live in it) will be the fuse that breaks first to save rates getting too high anytime in the next 10 years.

Taking this theory further; global debt in EP China US is also such that nz ocr will be depressed for a long time as any fed rate rise of any significant amount will start to cripple the globe and so is limited for a long time hence nz ocr also limited or else our $ would sky rocket and we would be crippled.

Hence why I've been buying tons of that beautiful high yielding property in palmydise - nz's last growing city with 7% yields on offer after ham and tga have been bid up (rotorua, napier, lower Hutt, porirua, Dunedin population growth all much LESS than Palmy)

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Yeah, but moving to Palmy's like moving to North Korea.

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how would immigration fall with this government settings, very unlikely to happen
also on one hand BE calls for interest cuts then calls the amount of debt growing daily as dangerous and risky. Duh

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Well said ST. Particularly when they hand out citizenship to every fee paying foreign "student".

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You do realize there's a hand inside Bills head right? And Nicks.

Who knew there was a new series of the Muppet Show?!

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Bill English shouldn't have to warn highly indebted home buyers about the risk of higher interest rates .
They should KNOW.

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This statement implies intelligence and rational thought. I dont think either are present currently

Does Anyone remember the 1987 "share parties". Most Dinner occasions with friends are "house parties" these days... sigh....

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No Sluggy, But I do fondly remember the "60's and "70"s "Progressive Dinner Parties" where we drove from house to house for each course, guzzling grog as we went. Ahh when men were men......

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Bill's just another one of these bloody doomsters I keep hearing about here!

Sarcasm aside, it is too late Bill, way too late.

Besides, jawboning never changes speculator behaviour - only the loss of expectation of future capital gains will (i.e. a correction).

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Summarised BE: "The real estate market is out of control like a Mack truck driven by a chimpanzee whizzing his tits off on meth, and it's in danger of running off the road and plummeting down Crash Canyon in flames, so in truly statesmanlike manner I'll wring my hands ineffectually, do nothing, say something vague about reinforcing the barriers with stronger string, and hide under the bed hoping it'll go away."

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LOL and then after the truck has crashed he'll refer to how he warned us all about it

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Shane

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Dave?

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And John Key won't remember the chimp or the truck

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After peeling off his rubber chimp mask and refusing a drug test.

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Ssllllurry McSsllllurry.

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He'd have gotten away with it if it wasn't for you lousy kids.

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Unfortunately 26 mil of new flags the truck was carrying went up in flames

Shame.

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The truck's full of innocent little lambs going to be slaughtered, but who think they're being taken to an open house.

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This is weird. I thought everything was A ok?

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Everything is just fine. The world's most unaffordable property is a sign of our strong economy and is good for New Zealand.
There are plenty of affordable properties in Auckland if you just check Trademe for under $500,000.
Our young people can't buy property because they buy too many iPhones, Skys and flat whites. Chinese students are harder working and save more so are able to buy before they leave university.
Foreign investors are not inflating the market, just hard working foreign students.

Everything is doubleplusgood.

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the horse has already bolted Bill....too late closing the barn door

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"Treasury forecast in the Budget that net migration would fall from a peak of 70,700 in June 2016 to 12,000 by June 2019, while at the same time the 90 day bill rate would rise by 1.1% to 3.7%, suggesting a rise in mortgage rates to over 5%".
That's the key paragraph in this story.
I wonder what would precipitate such a dramatic fall in immigration? Sounds like some sort of crash. And an associated rapid lowering of the number of house builders required.

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Welcome home from the party Bill where you been for the last 7 years? I take it with your comments this arvo that someone forgot to spike today's punch bowl.

It's classic how Key / English / National et all only pipe up after the latest data induced furor makes it way into the papers. Left to their own devices they would do nothing.

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So it is a crisis then?
Any comments JK????

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Allow me, on John's behalf; "Nah I don't believe that. Its not a crisis, its a challenge"

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No, it is a good thing -- -key wants NZ to be the switzerland of the south pacific. This is laudable if everyones wealth increases but only the rich will benefit.

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That turned out well, didn't it? Key justified his Swiss thinking big by claiming it would be a billion dollar industry employing 5000 to 7000 highly qualified and highly paid people.

The reality is about 1% of that with maybe 50 to 70 lawyers and accountants and helpers facilitating NZ based foreign trusts with consequential harm to New Zealand's reputation. No doubt these lawyers and accountants are highly paid for their services.

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Finance Minister Bill English has warned highly indebted home buyers that a forecast sharp fall in migration at the same time as rising interest rates could put them under pressure.

Is this a veiled PTA directive to the RBNZ to hike the OCR, to rectify that which is now undone, just as this none to subtle public outburst was to dictate a cut to underpin the state we have arrived at?

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OCR wont change a thing. People aren't buying because the rates are low.

All an increase will do is bankrupt all the FHB who just bought.

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Every other funded asset class is delivering parabolic or nearby returns because carry costs are extraordinarily low, why not residential properties funded by cheap, high LVR mortgages?

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The rates are not the driver - The prices skyrocketed long before the rates dropped to the current level. Have they sped up more now? possibly - but a lot of that will be media coverage (i.e. look at houses prices, buy now before they go up more)

According to the banks their main finance source is overseas, hence Floating rates didn't drop last OCR cut, and fixed rates are substantially lower.

Unless the banks are lying criminal scum, they can't increase rates on a hike next time, as they didn't drop them last cut.

You then need to factor in the 40% of foreign buyers who are not looking at the rates (they can either get the money cheaper from home, or they can purchase outright)

Either way a rate change will not impact the prices or slow the market down.

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Finance Minister Bill English has warned highly indebted home buyers that a forecast sharp fall in migration at the same time as rising interest rates could put them under pressure.

Bill on the front foot against the Herald (someone would have thought and written it for him)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&obj…
The Debt Bomb

He is trying to take two problems, debt and immigration and say immigration fixes debt. Both problems solved.
Why: its what his boss does
Why: the numbers/facts are so bad, best not use them

How to pull him into reality..
Hey BIll https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2inSqo3Q3c

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So it was a demand issue!
Any comments JK????

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"I'm in the shower"
Smalltown, you are Sandy..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoqplmO1VDY

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Floating mortgages are down and seem to be stable ($53,201m) . They are the ones impacted the most by OCR and account for approx 25% of loans.

Almost half the money sits in >1year ($93,860m). So an OCR change will have negligible effect for at least a year.

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Best you get the date columns right first. We are closer to April 16 than April 15. Please no more nonsense for today.

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Apologies, the actual figures show even less Variable so with more on fixed the rate change has even less impact.

Do you have any reasoning as to why rate changes will impact prices?

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Just so I have this straight...
Nick Smith and John Key don't believe there is a crisis in the AKL housing market.
Govt ridicules RBNZ for poor performance.
JK, NS, and BE believe the non existent crisis to be a function of supply, not demand.
JK believes there are ample properties available for less than $500k in AKL and even the higher cost properties are affordable for first home buyers despite our current real wealth trends.
Govt does little to nothing to impact council unitary plans and compliance.
BE announces demand side restrictions on the market.
BE warns first home buyers about buying in the current market.

I'm sorry, but what the actual hell is the message that we are meant to be taking from these imbeciles?
They can't even get the story straight between themselves..

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I think the message is: don't even think about what the message might be. Look after yourself. DO NOT BUY HOUSES. PRICES ARE TOO HIGH at the moment.

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Do not even do renovations.
Give it a while and you might even get tradies replying to your queries.

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I'm looking forward to the messages on the way down...

It'll start with something like "a pull back in prices is healthy and reflects confidence in the economy", progressing to "the Auckland Council is releasing too much land, it's the council's fault!" then, "well actually, when you look at the issue it is Labour's fault....somehow" and finally "this is a crisis! an absolute crisis!....we are going to increase migration, restrict building of new homes, force the RBNZ to reduce deposit requirements to 5% and provide a $50,000 first home owners grant!"

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Still the government fails to act and impose restriction to curb speculation. Now also are only shouting that too as has become to hot cand csn say that we warned. Act now Mr Finance Minister, enrire NZ is waitjng for response from govrrnment and please fo not start supply cry. We know supply is important but has to supplimented by additionsl measure, which the govetnment is not interested.

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There is no chance of Auckland experiencing a US or Irish style market correction. Auckland has one of the lowest construction rates in Australasia. In America and Ireland they had construction booms before the correction occurred.

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You are correct in both countries they had a massive oversupply of houses and no demand. This was coupled with a drop manufacturing jobs in the US which left people without income to pay the mortgage. In the US people abandoned their ninja loan houses.

Ireland still has oversupply issues. The difference is any correction has a lesser effect.

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The US housing bubble had more to do with risky lending that an oversupply of housing.

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Do we have a wage boom keeping pace? no, Do we have immigration under control? no, do we have some of the highest private debt per household in the western world?, yes, do we have some of the highest property prices in the world relative to average incomes? yes.

We WILL go bust, maybe not exactly like the US or Ireland, but it's unfortunately a dead cert in math terms and with anyone with a rational mind.

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I think people that can see the big picture don't see a crash coming. You need to look at this from a global perspective, not just that FHB cannot afford a house. Think bigger, much bigger and the direction the whole planet is going in. Our TV news is censored, take a look at Aljazeera, this manages to get a lot closer to whats really happening. At present we are lucky in this country and people here don't know it, current immigrants are legal wait to we start getting the illegal immigration.

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For those wondering how net migrations goes from todays levels to 12,000, remember its a net number. It includes new immigrants, NZ'ers coming home from overseas, and NZ'ers leaving NZ. The forecast is saying it expects more NZ'ers to leave for Australia as their economy improves, and more NZ'ers to stay in Australia. Also English language criteria has tightened for international students, this should have an impact in a few years as those who got in under the old criteria leave.

The net migration number is driven buy many things, and the high number we have seen recently has been largely international students and kiwis staying home. This will reverse.

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International "students" here to buy houses in Akld.

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Mr English, we know all that and now as you too are able to see what are you doing to avoid or minimise the damage by controling house price besides supply. Need you to use all tools available with govt as well as RBNZ to introduce income to loan on 9th June to protect banks - which is must. Plesse advisr Mr FM as we poor NZ are waiting for a responce n action instead of warning.

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Mr English, we know all that and now as you too are able to see what are you doing to avoid or minimise the damage by controling house price besides supply. Need you to use all tools available with govt as well as RBNZ to introduce income to loan on 9th June to protect banks - which is must. Plesse advisr Mr FM as we poor NZ are waiting for a responce n action instead of warning.

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Haw haw haw .....double haw haw !! ....this is not part of "The Plan" BE ol' boy ....are we not meant to be "priming the plebs" with cheap munny and let them blow their own residential property asset bubble up !! ....and that's not a Gout de Diamants bubble haw haw .....then my wonderful fine fellows and personal chums, those divine bankers can claw back all those lost funds, when the bubble bursts .....through the working plebs .....commonly called the "Taxpayer" .... triple haw haw !

Now ol' BE, you were doing swimmingly well ...up until today ! .... please sort one's self out and keep priming that fine asset bubble of residential property (leaky or otherwise - haw haw)

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Looks like Bill English is really trying to talk the market down. Wouldn't be surprised if he tells everyone to go read zerohedge. On the flip side, if you just keep cash you'll continue getting slaughtered by financial repression.

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They need to do something about the speculators here in NZ, I was talking to my mate who is a first home buyer in Canada this morning they have the same thing going on over there. Their government is too damn scared to do something about it encase they move back into recession. He has had to move out of Vancouver because of these same foreign presence beating him and his wife on every house they have bid on. He said most of the buying is being taken up by "chinese" (foreigners). Like many of the houses in Auckland, houses are being left there unrented and used to cash in on the capital gains. Its not just migration that's the issue, its the laws in which enables non residents ie foreign students to purchase land here.... Between Migration, foreign students using the motherlands interest rates and offshore money our native population is being out competed. Im a biologists; look at invasive species theory essentially a species is able to out compete a native populations because they have a greater advantage in something key in which the native population never evolved with.... Read up on what happens to the native populations once invasives take hold. They usually modifify the environment for their advantage, and native populations tend to perish... Or displaced to other regions...

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They need to do something about the speculators here in NZ, I was talking to my mate who is a first home buyer in Canada this morning they have the same thing going on over there. Their government is too damn scared to do something about it encase they move back into recession. He has had to move out of Vancouver because of these same foreign presence beating him and his wife on every house they have bid on. He said most of the buying is being taken up by "chinese" (foreigners). Like many of the houses in Auckland, houses are being left there unrented and used to cash in on the capital gains. Its not just migration that's the issue, its the laws in which enables non residents ie foreign students to purchase land here.... Between Migration, foreign students using the motherlands interest rates and offshore money our native population is being out competed. Im a biologists; look at invasive species theory essentially a species is able to out compete a native populations because they have a greater advantage in something key in which the native population never evolved with.... Read up on what happens to the native populations once invasives take hold. They usually modifify the environment for their advantage, and native populations tend to perish... Or displaced to other regions...

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So massive failure all around from the left and right.
From the left because of the utter failure to understand the importance of supply and the impact of planning regulation.
And from the right in the one dimensional view that it is 'all about supply' and the religious belief in 'the market'

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I remember Bill trying to talk down the market a year or so ago and we all know how successful that was. I will be so shocked if anyone introduces any kind of measure to tackle investors. Have completely given up on these guys who have wrecked Auckland and other centres for a whole generation of people.

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So, Is Bill the good cop or the bad cop ?

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He's the one who gets arrested due to corruption.

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:)

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So Nick Smith is a joke with a small clipboard.
Any comments JK?

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No Warning and Lecture Mr English, please advise what are you doing to control it besides supply issue and now immigration as both are must but are all long term solution. Together will supply you have to accept that overseas buyer is also a major contributor and the earlier data released was faulty. Why don't you ask the agency to get the correct data out ASAP, am sure it is not a big task to email to all buyer and get the correct information - It is possible but the main question is does this government has a will.

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Interesting comment that I see on this website and are real good. Understanding is better than those of the experts whose articles are published at time as many so called experts also have a hidden agenda or are being used by government or big lobby at times to prove a point - wrong point. The minister should really read the comment more than the article to not only understand the situation and also that they are being exposed.

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And the funny thing is, all these are not having any effect on the speculation and on the demand side of the housing market.... Politicians and Economists, Central Bankers all seem to be clueless.

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Clueless? no. Damn right dishonest? yes.

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Never attribute something to malice which can be explained by incompetence.

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What if its both?

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Is he trending on Twitter yet?

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Don't you worry - APRA is doing the work for THEM and US

English said it was up to the Reserve Bank to signal to banks or to change its regulations to tighten lending if it was concerned about risks to financial stability and he was unaware of any signalling by the Reserve Bank

That's a veiled message to the RB to pull its finger out - and change the regulations

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The problem is FM is saying one thing but if serious and really concern as is portraying why does he not introduce law/tax to try and stop speculators and overseas buyers for the fact is that they do not want to do anything but are saving themselves so that when the event happens, can come out again shamelessly and say that we did warn.

Simple Question, if they are in power and worried so why warn, instead take valid step by introducing new measure while continuing to ease supply.

Thick Skin and arrogant

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To answer your question I believe it's like a bet either way for them. They warn while doing nothing like you say, then when the s*** hits the fan they can say to media etc..."oh, but we told you".
Very slippery politics

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Is Immigration too at a risky level, Bill ?

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Now I'm all confused. I was under the impression Bill English was in the same party as Nick Smith. I heard Nick Smith boasting in Parliment just the other day how housing was more affordable than in 2008... Who and what to believe?

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Those two probably are but they both have a tortured relationship with the John Key Party that obviously shows up in different ways.

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I've some time for English but I recon Smith to be the most incompetent and bombastic minister in recent memory... And there's been a few!

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All NZ knows. Tell us somethjng different

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Immigration won't slow down unless National do something to try and silence Winston Peters before election, Interest rates won't rise much as most of the world would end up under pressure. They are low so the baby boomers can cash up.All rigged.

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I found this Steve Keen talk interesting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucf6y5ohX4Q
I think it explains many economies right now...

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Refer the below written by Sam Saggers.(Australian property investor). Sure the same issues applies to nz with the 4% overseas based foreign investors and 35% foreign students and temp works ie locally based foreign investors.

Per Sam:

"But if you’re worried about the foreign investors disappearing, think about this...

How many millionaires or HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) are there in Indonesia? That is people with $1 million USD of investable assets NOT including their family home.

By 2020 (and that’s not far away) there will be over one hundred and fifty thousand millionaires in Indonesia. Singapore is expected to have over one hundred and eighty thousand millionaires. Hong Kong is growing millionaires slower than Singapore, but still has one hundred and nintey three thousand today.

That’s over half a million millionaires in these three areas alone... and that’s a lot of people.

Now think about this... At 4.69 million, there are more HNWIs in the Asia-Pacific region than North America. That number is so big it’s almost meaningless, so let me put it this way.

If a tiny 2% of these people invested in Sydney, that would be roughly ninety three thousand property transactions. Were you aware that Sydney only has about one hundred thousand transactions a year?

When you look at the numbers, when you look at reality, what we are potentially facing, the "fear", would be an influx of investors, not an exit.

Right now, foreign investment isn’t anywhere near that level, but the potential is there.

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It's even worse than I thought. Get into Elysium while you still can!

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If you are going to pay the kind of prices going in Auckland you might as well get in to somewhere better like Sydney or Melbourne.

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Except the Australians have been smart enough to make it illegal for non-residents to purchase existing homes.

Only NZ is that stupid.

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Very simple math really, for example, there are millions and millions of Chinese families that own apartments in Chinese principal &/or coastal cities, where the Apartment has a value over 1 million USD. It only takes a very small percentage of those families, buying here in Auckland, which is apparently still a "cheap +value" market for them, to push the locals out of ownership in their own city. And it is happening,and has happened. My school age children can understand the simplicity of this maths,politicians in Government, however stupid, did graduate high school, at least. So the math is not beyond them. It is simply that they are disingenuous, morally bankrupt and treasonous in their action.

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Immigration won't slow while the bar to meet the criteria is so low.

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Per English "We'd prefer it to be a stable market. It's well understood around the world that housing markets that rise very fast can drop fairly fast. They certainly don't keep rising forever. In some countries that's had a fairly big effect. We don't want to see that here."

Is this guy serious ? Seriously open your eyes. Prices up 500,000 in Auck since you have been in office.

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I'm sure I read/heard that national wont do a damn thing about foreign investment as any policy that descriminates against particular populations will risk our trade agreementts with China & Korea ... Here we go found it ...http://m.nzherald.co.nz/trade/news/article.cfm?c_id=96&objectid=11484069

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exactly so don't discriminate and just target all investors .... foreign based, local based foreigners and also local investors.

ALL INVESTORS. Investors make up 45% of the market. Apply a 10% stamp duty and loan to income ratios of 4 to 1. (Exclude new houses in order to encourage supply)

Make our houses our homes again. !!! Give first home buyers a chance

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That's the thing the problem is the Korean FTA we actively /encourage them to invest in our property so we can't risk breaking that which means if it's good for the goose (Korea) it's good for the gander (china) rule applies.

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Thanks Miranda. Here is Key then, in 2007:

'National’s goal is to turbo-charge the supply of housing in New Zealand by confronting the fundamental constraints that have kept a lid on it'

Ten years later, where's the real progress.

FAILURE!!!!!!!

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Over this whole period as Auckland property prices got further astray just realise that adding to the developing crisis ALL OF THOSE MUM AND DAD INVESTORS WHO HAVE GOT ON THE RUNAWAY TRAIN and prevented their next generation of home seekers from buying their own home or for those who have taken the risk the potential losses of that home in the bust that is inevitable.

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If the bust is "inevitable" then those Mum and Dad investors haven't prevented their next generation from buying their own home.
Anyway, what about the 4.69 million HNWIs in the Asia-Pacific region? It's kind of unprecedented.

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cost up 53% since 2008 and rising and where does all this tax payers money go too, would love to know how much heads to the big 4 banks in interest payments for investor housing.
its a dumb policy and a big chunk would be better spent building affordable housing for kiwis
Hon PAULA BENNETT: We spend around $34 million every week to subsidise more than 470,000 New Zealanders in social housing, private rentals, and even those on low incomes with some of their mortgage payments. That is around $2 billion every year, up 53 percent from $1.3 billion when we took office

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Pure & basic evidence of a systemic economic failure after 8 years in power, and not just this government but also the one prior which also added to this social need and ridiculous ambulance at bottom of cliff approach

When so many, need so much of taxpayer dollars to just have/afford a roof over their heads. Honestly, we should hang our heads in shame as a nation of the OECD.

We will never strive as a nation if our so-called 'booming' economy almost completely hinges on pushing the basic costs of living for people to the brink of week to week living bordering on breadline. THIS alone is why any housing bubble now or in the future needs killing. It's an economic parasite that benefits the 10% at the expense of the other 90%.

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Government is working for 10% Elite Few Kiwi and for Overseas Investors Only. Shame

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Brilliant love John Keys speech in 2007 ... The correct Conclusion should have read: If we get in power we will sit on our ar$e and do absolutely nothing while NZ achieves the status of highest prices relative to income in the world and investors make up 45% of buyers with Household Debt growing at 8% a year and totalling 230BN dollars.

Note the crisis he was referring to was when Auckland House prices were 500k ... since then they have increased by Approximately another 500k to 1m.

If it was a crisis at 500k when Labour was in Government why cant John Key admit that it is a crisis when it is 1,000,000 under his government ?

He didn't get the flag, he didn't fix the housing crisis .... what did he do exactly ?

Per John Key 2007..

"Conclusion

Over the past few years a consensus has developed in New Zealand. We are facing a severe home affordability and ownership crisis. The crisis has reached dangerous levels in recent years and looks set to get worse.

This is an issue that should concern all New Zealanders. It threatens a fundamental part of our culture, it threatens our communities and, ultimately, it threatens our economy.

The good news is that we can turn the situation around. We can deal with the fundamental issues driving the home affordability crisis. Not just with rinky-dink schemes, but with sound long-term solutions to an issue that has long-term implications for New Zealand’s economy and society.

National has a plan for doing this and we will be resolute in our commitment to the goal of ensuring more young Kiwis can aspire to buy their own home.

It’s a worthy goal and one I hope you will support us in achieving. Thank-you. "

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No "rinky-dink schemes"??

Oh, the irony.

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Edit: Dudes there is something very munted in your coding. This duplicate took about a minute to re-post itself. I only pushed the button once.

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Less said the better about Mr John Key. I think they all are being sadist and enjoying the plight of many first home buyers.

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I wonder how many foreign students have tried this approach and been caught at our boarder over the last 8 years... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-06/china-capital-outflow-crackdow…

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I see a link to another news item in that story:

Australian wealth jumps, property holdings huge

"We've been saying it consistently quarter after quarter but it will remain the case--Australians have never been wealthier. Assets continue to rise, especially underpinned by strength in equities in the December quarter and house prices over the past year. Clearly, the balance sheets of Aussie households are in good shape," he says.

NZ too?

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on paper.

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Not sure why the members of this government are paid their very large salaries, they don't actually ever do anything, but blame other organizations for everything.
Generally it's denying there is any problem (about anything), then finally admitting there is a problem, but it's not their fault, it was someone else's fault, and even though they could do something, they will still refuse to.
Anyone that still supports this joke of a government is out of their head.

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Who would want to take over from this government though phithy. The next term is going to be a horror story for whoever is in power and has to try and clean up this mess.

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You're probably right there NH, it's a matter of time until this whole thing comes a crumbling down, I wonder if anyone out there has started to short the NZ housing market, like the smart guys did with the US one (as in the movie "the big short"), those smart few in the US that did that makes truckloads of billions of dollars.

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Shame them on all social media platform. Only solution. Small steps can lead to big things. Start now, little steps will help

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As it is all the decision taken by the government is based and in favor on the same overseas buyer as they fail to understand that with their money they are slowly and steadily taking over New Zealand and by the time the government realize will be too late.

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It need quite a few factors that drive net migration sharp turn.
- Canada, Australia, USA make huge changes on their migration policy that is much more attractive then NZ
- National Party tighten up migration policy sharply
- Rise unemployment above 8% in NZ
- A series of terrorist attack happen in NZ
- War break out in NZ

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War? What is it good for.
Absolutely nothing.
Need Dave to get the band back together for a Queen St gig.
Friendly protest of the malcontent might wake up the guvment.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/queen-street-riot-recalled-…

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If everyone is crying out over the housing crises which is a direct extension from the immigration numbers and policy. Why don't we march on government, its not like going to work for the day in this climate is that lucrative...well not for those already on the property ladder. I've heard it twice over the last week...There is no point going to work when you can earn ridiculous capital by sitting on houses doing sweet FA... that was from a immigrant who owns 3 properties in TGA and the other a head structural engineer in one of Aucklands leading companies. If we (the population) really believe the issue is ludicrous can we not afford a day off to protest. Everyone seems to be crying out about it, but no one is doing anything. Those that need to march are the ones that can least afford too because there scraping by on piss poor kiwi wages trying to put together a deposit. The other half (those on the property ladder) seem to give it lip service but that's about it. The thing is they can afford the day off...

The FHB are getting it in every orifice.

Ive got a neighbor who is walking the street door knocking to find someone willing to sell to them while also dropping pamphlets with a synopsis about themselves. Hopefully they find some one. They have deposited pamphlets some 20+km. Still no takers.

The issue lies in the policy with the Korean fair trade agreement. Nat wont stop the Koreans coming in because it would kill our trade agreement with them. And if we cant close the door on the Koreans then we are unable to close the door on the Chinese. See http://m.nzherald.co.nz/trade/news/article.cfm?c_id=96&objectid=11484069.

Our governments have painted us into this corner that we cant get out of...

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I am for the march / protest. In many country opposition leaders or some leader will call and everyone protesting will join but now days movement can be created by social media also. Everyone who feels the same should share and shame the government for not taking any action and it will be a major uphill task for the tick skin people to act.

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Why march when you can vote? If all those effected by national's policies actually voted I am sure we would be getting a new government. If you didn't vote then suck it up.

Ask yourself why National don't want compulsory voting like Australia does successfully and also ask yourself why they are dragging their heels with electronic voting.

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March and tell people WHY they need to vote. Apathy and resignation seem to have overtaken so many. If we want something different, we have to initiate it, 'cos sure as hell J.K. ain't.

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Problem is voting is every three year and no accountability in between. Also no strong opposiston which has to be a watchdohg and make government sccountable but here both have failed. Government has another 15 months and now speculators knows that they have a free hand for 15 months so can imagine the damage that will happen to the already crazy house price due to inaction by the govetnment.

In any sickness prevention is better than cure but if get sick than containment n treatment is advised and this government is not interested in treatment so how will they contain it leave aside treating it.

Listen to the insensitive statements and lie comming from government and when exposed are so arrogent that are not even sorry but believe in Offence is the Best form of defence.

When govt is not ready to listen then you have two option. First is to wait for nect election n do not care about the country or the other option is to raise your voice n concern. The choice is ours.

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Sure there is no credible opposition.... but there is no credible government either.

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All the politicians seem to do is punish us investors for carrying out our business. Nick says not enough small cheap homes are being built and Bill says we should be investing in something more productive. Well why not provide me with some financial incentives rather than punishing me with more taxes. Incentives are always welcomed. For a start how about coming and talking to us and listening rather than ranting off about us all the time. We want to be loved not abused.

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The punishment hasn't even started yet!

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Credible and strong opposition is must for a strong democracry but is lacking in NZ. Less said the better about the government.

Nero Fiddle While Rome Burn.

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You are probably right - but we are a nation against everything and not for anything. We don;t vote anything IN, we just vote everything OUT.

We can't agree on what RIGHT even looks like so there is no credible opposition.

Oh well.

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Korean free trade agreement excuse is a red heering..... just impose stamp duty ON ALL INVESTORS local and foreign and you won't be breaching that agreement.

Investors are pushing up prices and reducing home ownership rates... for every investor purchase a first home buyer misses out especially in a tight market.....as investors buy more existing homes then ownership rates drop....

Investors should be encouraged to buy/make new builds .... not push up existing get home prices

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Hi Joe you are absolutely correct n govt says that their is no solution.

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Hi Joe you are absolutely correct n govt says that their is no solution.

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What happened to Shane from last night ? :}

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"All the politicians seem to do is punish us investors for carrying out our business."

You are joking right ?
No Stamp Duty
No Loan to Income Ratios
No differentiation in interest rates/perceived risk between BTL Mortgages from Homeowner Mortgages
No cap on immigration

The Government is playing into the investors hands....

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I think the housing crisis is manly because of overseas buyer as they, to convert unofficial money pay much higher premiumto buy as their money being unofficial is worthless in their home country so they will pay a million dollar to a 700000 unit but the effect of the same is that it becomes a benchmark price and all the property in thst area shoots by 20% to 30% with one deal.

Otherwise with NZ wages,how many can buy a million dollar unit unless downsizing.

All this has a ripple effect in house price in NZ and unless government accepts, how will they take action.

Other factors are also contributing but not as much.

God knows why government is not able to accept the fact, why are they so afraid to noteven think about it. Under what obligation or interest are they with overseas buyers as can check the fact with anyone related to housing business.

Media too is very weakk to highlight.

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'Experts' having been predicting an Auckland house price crash for years. I don't see the problem, everyone knows the risks, if there's a correction and some are in negative equity, that's just life.
NZ is not a dictatorship, why does everyone expect the government to 'do something'?

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