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A review of things you need to know before you go home Wednesday; no rate changes, dairy prices slip, house prices stop rising, or 'definitely falling' says Barfoots, job ads strong, commodity prices up, swaps slip, NZD holds

A review of things you need to know before you go home Wednesday; no rate changes, dairy prices slip, house prices stop rising, or 'definitely falling' says Barfoots, job ads strong, commodity prices up, swaps slip, NZD holds

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here today either.

WMP HOLDS ITS OWN, BUT ONLY BY ITSELF
At today's dairy auction, aggressive buying for near term contracts sees Whole Milk Powder prices reverse some of their recent losses. But most other dairy products in this auction saw prices fall, and that put the whole event into negative territory for the second event in a row. Post auction trades on the derivatives market has seen WMP prices firm. However, as Kieth Woodford points out today, reliance on WMP lacks long-term prospects.

FOMO GONE
There were two housing market reports out today for June activity. QV, which reports on transactions that have hit the land transfer office, reported average housing values have plateaued in Auckland, with price growth slowing in Wellington. 'There are plenty of options for people looking to buy and the fear of missing out is long gone,' they said.

PRICES 'DEFINITELY FALLING'
The other real estate report out today was from Auckland's largest realtor, Barfoot & Thompson, and they report 'unconditional' transactions which are much more current. Their results showed falling volumes and stable or weak prices in the Auckland market.

'JOBS EVERYWHERE'
ANZ's monitoring of job ads remains very positive, in fact amazingly so. The number of ads being posted is up 14.1% versus a year ago, and that is a record high - again. Although Auckland remains the strongest of the main centres, the strong labour market remains a national phenomenon, with all the less-urbanised regions still experiencing stronger annual job ad growth than any of the three main centres. The construction, utilities,manufacturing and transport sectors are the largest drivers of total job ads growth. The service sector is also contributing strongly, as is retail and tourism. ANZ says it expects the unemployment rate to remain under 5% this year and wage growth to lift.

COMMODITIES ARE DELIVERING
The ANZ Commodity Price Index lifted +2.1% month-on-month in June, which built to an impressive +25% gain year-on-year. The continued surge in milkfat and sheepmeat prices led the charge, but there were declines for wool, wholemilk powder, casein, apples and aluminium. Overall dairy prices nudged up +2.9% in June (+49% year-on-year) and non-dairy prices increased +1.7% (+10% year-on-year). The NZD index slipped -1.6% from May due to the stronger NZD, but this needs to be kept in perspective with local returns up +20% year-on-year.

CHINA SLOWDOWN
In China, it has been their strong services sector growth that has made up for a weak manufacturing sector. But now the services sector is slowing too, according to a closely watched private report.

WHOLESALE RATES DOWN AGAIN
Swap rates fell another -4 bps today. The 90 day bank bill rate another -1 bp to 1.95%. NZGB yields fell by about -4 bps today as well.)

NZ DOLLAR UNCHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged at 72.8 USc. On the cross rates we are a little higher, trading now at 95.6 AUc and at 4.1 euro cents. That takes the TWI-5 to 76.9. Bitcoin has risen today, down -1.1%% from this time yesterday to US$2,584.

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3 Comments

Job ads up, bring on the wage growth....yeah right

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Good things come to those who wait......and wait and wait

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Let them wait lol

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