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House sellers refuse to cut listing prices again as inventory levels start falling
Asking prices rise to truncated NZ$410,058 as inventories fell slightly.
Rental property investors appear not to have been panicked yet into putting their houses onto the market by taxation changes in the May 20 budget, figures from realestate.co.nz's monthly report for June show.
Asking prices increased slightly as unsold housing inventory levels fell slightly, the realestate.co.nz report found.
However, the seasonally adjusted number of new listings coming onto the market rose slightly in June from May at the same time as inventory fell, suggesting a number of properties were withdrawn from the market having not sold.
"The truncated mean asking price for June at NZ$410,058 (up from NZ$407,349 in May) would seem to indicate a staunch position taken by sellers as the revised level they judge to be the “market”, not requiring further adjustments down in price at this time," realestate.co.nz CEO Alistair Helm said in the report republished on unconditional.co.nz.
"The budget announcement in mid May regarding property investment had the potential to impact the supply side of the market in terms of new listings in June and July. Whilst the level of new listings in June was up on a seasonally adjusted basis, the asking price expectation change would not be seen as reflective of the impact of rental properties coming onto the market, as this would likely be seen to drag down the truncated mean price whereas the case was that the asking price level edged up in June," Helm said.
The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of June totaled 51,916, barely changed from the May total. See all data here.
"This represented the equivalent of 45.3 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory levels are beginning to fall, having risen to their peak in April at 51.6 weeks of equivalent sales. The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in June to 11,106 – down 5% from May, however when the expected winter slow down is factored in with a seasonally adjusted factor, the true state of the new listings market shows a 5% increase."
See more detail from the report below:
Over the 12 months to June 2010 a total of 145,920 new listings came onto the market. This was up 8% on the same 12 months to June 2009. The property market continues to attract sellers, witnessed by the relatively strong level of new listings with 11,106 coming onto the market in June. This level is up 16% on the same month last year.
This situation is best seen from the perspective of inventory levels – 35 weeks of equivalent sales volume on the market a year ago compared to 45 weeks today.
With consolidated long-term data indicating 38 weeks to be the national threshold between a market favourable to either sellers or buyers, current inventory levels continue to show that New Zealand property remains a buyer’s market.
The asking price expectation has moved little in the past month following the more significant drop between April and May. At the time this was judged to be a pragmatic reaction by sellers eager to “meet the market” in price terms and seek to attract what continues to be a weak level of buyer activity. The truncated mean asking price for June at $410,058 would seem to indicate a staunch position taken by sellers as the revised level they judge to be the “market”, not requiring further adjustments down in price at this time.
"While at first glance the market appears to be relatively flat, the data highlights subtle changes. The June figures show more convincingly that metropolitan areas are more active than provincial New Zealand with property clearing faster. Inventory fell more in the three largest cities than the national average, while the number of new listings dropped 11 percent compared to five percent nationwide. Wellington led the pack, with new listings down 18 percent. Conversely, provincial areas saw listings rise one percent, with inventory levels remaining high." Realestate.co.nz CEO Alistair Helm said.
“Although the national market favours buyers, there are pockets emerging around the country that may soon favour sellers. In fact, Nelson has already become a seller’s market with inventory levels below the long-term average,” said Mr Helm.
At that time in June 2009 the market was experiencing a listings’ shortage as well-financed buyers where negotiating hard with sellers keen to offload their property as property prices had fallen through late 2008 and early 2009, and uncertainty surrounded the future direction of pricing in a market so accustomed to property price appreciation.
294 Comments
So 'asking price' rather than
So 'asking price' rather than actual sale price.
If my property wasn't going to sell, I'd rather it 'not sell' for more rather than less?!
"Hello, Harcourts? Listen, that renter of mine you've got that isn't moveing; put the price up for a few months over winter, so I can sell it at a 'reduced price' in Spring"
you really do have little
you really do have little understanding of RE market, nice spin though
"Hello, Harcourts? Listen,
"Hello, Harcourts? Listen, that renter of mine you've got that isn't moveing; put the price up for a few months over winter, so I can sell it at a 'reduced price' in Spring"
And it still won't sell.
Let's see...The seller couldn't get rid of it at his too-high price in a depressed market which is falling by the day, so he tries a "cunning" plan...he ups the price even more, sits on the house for a few months while losing money hand-over-fist, then drops the price back to his original too-high asking price in the belief that someone as idiotic as himself will leap on it, even though the market has fallen further by that time, and his too-high price looks more absurdly too-high than it already did!
How could he lose?
LOL!
Why are they harping on about
Why are they harping on about the asking price so much with minimal reference in the report to selling price. Isn't the selling price what everyone is interested in. If you download the report data excel file you can find the selling prices, in the form of REINZ truncated 80% mean.
Auckland is at $510,000 down ten thousand from June and approximately equivalent to prices at the start of 2007. Ouch, I feel sorry for some friend who bought back then. They told me they are paying $300 per week on their mortgage than they were renting and it seems like they have had no capital gain in all that time. $300 X 182 weeks ( 3 1/2 years) = $54,600 spent to go nowhere, poor buggers.
That's just it, renters do
That's just it, renters do move so go ahead piss your tenants off and watch them ditch you in a heartbeat for a better landlord that doesn't just think of themselves. Plenty of rents out there and plenty of genuine landlords, ie, me
Hmmm did I read
Hmmm did I read correct....asking prices up, bears aint gonna like this
Ask for as much as you like,
Ask for as much as you like, it doesn't mean you'll get it. And you won't. Not even close.
Perhaps if we renamed them
Perhaps if we renamed them 'wishing prices'.
lol nice.
lol nice.
As a seller why would you
As a seller why would you reduce your asking price if you don't have to sell?
You would only do so if you thought house prices were going to drop. But the overwhelming consensus in New Zealand appears to be that this is not going to happen (we're talking nominal prices here as that is all people think in terms of).
Buyers out there still have a religious like conviction that buying real-estate is a good long term investment (almost at all times) and is in fact a conservative and responsible thing to do. If I was a seller I'd hold on to my high price hoping that some-one got sick of waiting for a price drop and egged on by family and friends and a desire to "get on with life" just jumped in.
House prices are ALREADY
House prices are ALREADY dropping, and will continue to do so for a long time to come.
But I agree, if you don't have to sell, don't bother trying, because you'll get nowhere near the silly prices being asked at the peak of the bubble.
However there are all those gullible simpletons who raced out and DID buy at the peak, and who now owe more than they can pay. They are the ones who will be (and are) reducing their asking prices once it has finally sunk into their thick skulls that the bubble has burst and they were ripped-off.
That's life.
House prices are ALREADY
House prices are ALREADY dropping, Where?
Property prices aren’t just
Property prices aren’t just dropping, they are crashing. The area where I recently purchased a property is down over 25% from its 2007 high. Great location and it has been valuation was over 6 figures…
what area, troy?
what area, troy?
Troy. You obviously live in a
Troy. You obviously live in a crappy area mate. I would get out fast. Nothing to hold you there. Prices are not dropping in many decent places.
Most home owners didn't buy
Most home owners didn't buy in the bubble or if they did they were buying and selling on the same market. It seems like you think everyone has a 100% mortgage and purchased in 2007. In reality the average mortgage is roughly 50% of the median house price.
I bought in 2002 & 2003 and sold before 2007 then bought again in late 2008 from desperate sellers. It appears that we paid about 30% less then what similar if not lesser properties in our area have sold for in the last year. I may end up having paid too much, but then I have my capital gains from my previous properties to use as a buffer and am keen to upgrade if prices do tank big time. We are planning to stay where we are for the next 5 - 10 years and are mortgage free so it doesn't matter what house prices do until it's time to sell.
Good on you Your Name. Well
Good on you Your Name.
Well thought out.
These guys think everyone is like them, jonny-come-latelys to the market.
"Gosh, could someone actually own houses bought years ago with what is now minimal debt?"
YES.
Good on you Your Name. Well
Good on you Your Name.
Well thought out.
These guys think everyone is like them, jonny-come-latelys to the market.
"Gosh, could someone actually own houses bought years ago with what is now minimal debt?"
YES.
It's not the average mortgage
It's not the average mortgage holder at 50% that will be the catalyst. It's those who weren't a wise as you. And on that; you are. You can see that lower house prices benefit home buyers, as they can upgrade or switch at a beneficial future price.
Those with excessive , unservicable debt are heading into treacherous waters.
Nicholas, you almost got
Nicholas, you almost got happy there...
but then you quickly snuffed that happines out.
Good friends of ours bought
Good friends of ours bought an investment home late 2007, 100% mortgaged against family home, with the view to flick it back quickly after doing a few renovations. The renovations turned into major work, took much longer than planned and when they were finally ready to re-sell (2 years rather than 2 months later) they didn't want to take a big loss instead of the expected capital gain. Now they are in the position where they can't afford to hold and can't afford to let go (but will have to by the end of the year). I'm glad I'm not in their shoes.
Ditto! Our friends sold up in
Ditto! Our friends sold up in Auckland and moved to Fongaray, where they bought a home for themselves and a fixer-upper to flick off, but they face the exact same scenario as your friends. Now my friends have finally managed to rent the place out, but at a major loss. The interest alone is slowly killing them.
Yep. They've also become
Yep. They've also become unwilling landlords and can't keep going while losing so much each week. They are truly nice people (and smart I might add) and I feel sorry about them being caught in the pseudo-investment madness ("pseudo" because that was speculation rather than investment). I'd have been happy for them to make some well-deserved cash (they did a large part of the do-up themselves, hence the time it ended up taking) but it looks unlikely. I hope both of them can hold onto their (well-paying, secure) jobs.
Ow. My friends did all the
Ow. My friends did all the work themselves. Hubby actually, while his missus was out earning a crust. So many times in 2005/2006 I urged him to hurry up and flick it off before there were no more suckers left, but he always had an answer about interest rates and immigration, etc etc etc. Now he is doing an Open Uni IT course and looking after their two kids while his wife is out working. Things are pretty grim for them at the mo.
And yeah they are smart people too, but couldn't see what a have it all was. It was like they had gold fever or something and couldn't be made to see sense. We're praying everything works out for them and we'll help them out if we can.
Elley. They may be smart but
Elley. They may be smart but not property smart.
Clearly you're right on that
Clearly you're right on that one. Still feeling sorry for them.
Why would you try to sell now
Why would you try to sell now unless you absolutely have to sell? Seems like pretty bad timing to me for "estate realisation".
The point is that there are
The point is that there are many people out there who do have to sell, simply because they borrowed and paid far more than they should have and can afford.
Those of us with no debt can safely hang in there and ride it out, although it may take a long time before we realise any gains on our property, but we're the lucky ones.
In the teeth of the worst
In the teeth of the worst recession since the depression we see house prices maintaining strength.
See, it's the same as always...ya can't go wrong in property.
Nicholas Arrand...get invested in the housing market for safety.
Yep, you are a troll. Nobody
Yep, you are a troll. Nobody could be that stupid in reality. Except perhaps a property "investor".
No Anonymous, I am not a
No Anonymous, I am not a Troll I am a Rich PI Troll.
I've got all my money into property, always have had and always will have [and always as a long term investor].
The only boring thing is guys like you who keep going on about a house price collapse.
It ain't gonna happen.
Not even in this worst recession!
yeah and that is why the US
yeah and that is why the US house prices have fallen over 25%. Get real
I am real. Don't forget that
I am real. Don't forget that the US house building market works differently to the NZ'ed market.
So no huge over-supply here. There was in the US.
So no collapse here.
"IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!"
"IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!"
Different to when?
Different to when?
THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT TO
THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT TO ALL THOSE OTHER TIMES PROPERTY PRICES FELL!!!!!!111
When was there a big collapse
When was there a big collapse in property prices in Nz'ed?
Shares have their 30 or 40% falls, I remember those, can't think of the big property falls.
Rich PI Troll. You are "The
Rich PI Troll. You are "The Man" as well.keep up preaching the truthfull word re property
Now that is really funny....
Now that is really funny.... Wow! your the man, high five ya big hairy P.I. maybe your Magnum.... or Columbo...or Lancelot Link.
So if all vendors add a
So if all vendors add a billion to their asking price I suppose you think housing is even safer.
I would mostly ignore the
I would mostly ignore the asking price, all that tells us is that most sellers aren't pressured to sell... at the moment. But falling inventory has to be good news for the market, especially during the slow winter months. I'm sure it can be spinned to be bad, like all news. Example: Could mean a surge of houses on the market in spring when interest rates are higher and less buyers around, but who knows????
if you look at stats on rpnz
if you look at stats on rpnz the ones that are selling are doing so at considerably less than the listing price in many places.The good agents at the moment are the ones that can beat the vendor into submitting to the market sooner rather than later
Inventory can drop away to
Inventory can drop away to next-to-nothing, but it will not cause prices to rise IF NOBODY IS BUYING.
And nobody is buying.
However the fact remains that there is a glut of property, not a shortage (and there has never been a shortage), while there is a marked dearth of buyers.
You figure out what that does to prices.
I'm pretty sure that as a
I'm pretty sure that as a national we are still buying and selling around 5000 houses a month. There are buyers, just not as many.
Everywhere else it's been a
Everywhere else it's been a progression something like 1.) Stalemate; 2.) Panic; 3.) Race to the bottom.
Nobody's ever come up with a convincing or substantive explanation of why NZ should be any different. We're not the Magical Kingdom of Propertyinvestmentania.
Kakapo I agree with you that
Kakapo I agree with you that NZ won't be any different - but the list of reasons people give as to why house prices won't drop is long and varied and most people will buy into one of them:
1. Limited supply due to restrictive land-use zoning.
2. Geographical factors in Auckland and Wellington - mountains/water constraining available land for development.
3. Increased population due to positive net-immigration & natural increase leading to increased demand
4. Asian (particularly Chinese) buyers Love Auckland property!
5. Relatively low interest rates (compared to recent years atleast) with still room to lower rates further if absolutely necessary.
6. Despite recent changes still tax advantages in property compared to other investments.
7. Where else are you going to invest? NZX? Finance companies? pittance in bank? With property you control it.
8. Property is a tangible asset that keeps up with inflation over the long haul and we still have inflation in New Zealand.
9. New Zealand's unemployment rate is low compared to other countries. Our economy is based upon commodities the prices of which have recovered.
10. Houses can be bought for less than the cost to build. Therefore prices are going up.
11. People won't walk away from their houses US "gingle mail" style because our mortgages are recourse and people are personally liable for the debt.
12. You gotta live some-where! There will always be a demand for property.
13. All property is local. Yeah prices might have dropped in California but it's different here.
14. Government won't let prices drop.
15. Our banks (and Aussie banks) were prudent and are in good shape. They are still able to continue to lend.
16. Magic!
16. Magic!
So where do you invest
So where do you invest Kakapo?
Can't be much of an investment as you always seem grumpy!
I have drilling rights on a
I have drilling rights on a rich vein of sarcasm and mockery.
Boy, it must be a deep
Boy, it must be a deep mine!
Any light down there?
It's the bright glow of
It's the bright glow of reason.
But are you bringing anything
But are you bringing anything to the surface that's worth something?
Yes. I can tell it's
Yes. I can tell it's valuable because the asking price is so high.
Oh, wait ...
You hit that sarcasim vein
You hit that sarcasim vein Kakapo...
still don't know what you mine!
Well said MarkyMark.
Well said MarkyMark.
Did you notice a whooshing
Did you notice a whooshing noise as you missed that point?
There is no "house shortage".
There is no "house shortage". It's a myth. It's always been a myth.
Banks are no longer lending the money required by underpaid people to buy overpriced houses. No money, no sale. Understand?
More people are leaving NZ than are arriving. Most of the few who are coming here have one half of bugger all, and are not going to be buying our overpriced houses.
People are leaving NZ because, among other things, incomes are low (amongst the lowest in the OECD), and costs are high (again, refer OECD). "One cannot get ahead." In fact, "one cannot even keep up."
Debt. There's too much of it. WAY too much of it, and most people are only just beginning to see the mess they've got themselves into.
No shortages, no lending, high prices, low incomes, low immigration, high debt levels.
The (residential) property market is SCREWED.
"More people are leaving NZ
"More people are leaving NZ than are arriving."
Really? So immigration was negative last year, huh? Was it? Suggest you check.
Vera last year is irrelevant.
Vera last year is irrelevant. Right now immigration figures are not great. People are starting to go back to Ausie again
Vera last year is irrelevant.
Vera last year is irrelevant. Right now immigration figures are not great. People are starting to go back to Aussie again
"And nobody is
"And nobody is buying."
Really? Nobody? So sales for last month were....zero?? Were they? Perhaps you might like to check that.
Good on you Vera. The dreary
Good on you Vera.
The dreary ones on this site think no one is doing anything.
In fact, about 5000 plus people each month buy a house, nowhere near as many as a few years ago but still lots.
That's 5000 plus putting their money on the line...not yapping about like some posters here.
Gotta say the Property Press
Gotta say the Property Press this week feels like it's been on a diet (shame cos it's great to get the fire going). Looks like some people are finally realising it's not the best time to sell (can't understand how anyone would want to sell now to be honest, unless they are forced to).
Falling inventory could also
Falling inventory could also mean that sellers are withdrawing from the market as they are not getting their expected prices.
I agree there is a glut but
I agree there is a glut but you cannot get anyone in treasury, the real estate industry or the banks to say so. Can you imagine what would happen if anybody with credibility from one of the above said so.
my banker expects my floating
my banker expects my floating interest rate on my business loan to be in the high 9s by the middle of next year. Residential property rates will be right behind. Scary for home owners or pis whose rates were locked in at >9% and dropped back to the floating rate recently.There relief is only temporary
Well that's an interesting
Well that's an interesting point your banker makes, but I'm not sure I agree with him/her... IMO we are about to double dip, so my prediction is that Bollard will be heading for zero before too long. The recovery wind has died and we're firmly in the doldrums.. financial storm approaching fast.
RJ.It's not Bernard is it? We
RJ.It's not Bernard is it? We know how accurate he is don't we.
A few of my mates in the real
A few of my mates in the real estate industry are considering alternative careers. The exodus is about to begin....
It has already begun and is
It has already begun and is increasing in intensity. I have not been making money for months but the last two months have been horrendus. Luckily I saved a few pennies to keep me going for a while until I get some employment.
So where are we now? Stage
So where are we now? Stage 3?
1-Denial
2-Anger
3-Bargaining
4-Depression
5-Acceptance
stage - 4
stage - 4
We are at the stage of
We are at the stage of considering to buy again.
It is a buyer's market so now is the time to buy.
Banks are getting keen to lend again.
They need to get the money
They need to get the money moving that has been deposited in the banks by depositors, dah.
And what safer place can
And what safer place can banks place their depositors money in than NZ'ed residential mortgages.
Good on the banks. No Lehman Bros or AIGs here.
"And what deader, most
"And what deader, most economically unproductive place can banks place their depositors money in than NZ'ed residential mortgages[?]"
Fixed that for you.
Luckily everyone else is smarter than you.
Can you lend me some money
Can you lend me some money please??? i have a 15% deposit and a good job and the bank is still wanting me to build up a deposit...
A bank wanting a deposit is
A bank wanting a deposit is being prudent, as they should be when re-investing depositor's money.
ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha
That was supposed to answer
That was supposed to answer the comment. "now is the time to buy."
Sounds like someone is still
Sounds like someone is still at stage 1, hmmmm?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
6-Suicide
6-Suicide
hmmm...well here's what bill
hmmm...well here's what bill unglish said today about overpriced kiwi housing!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1065...
hmmm...well here's what bill
hmmm...well here's what bill unglish said today about overpriced kiwi housing!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1065...
great stuff, the truth from a
great stuff, the truth from a poli, he will be hoping his allowance remains the same and his rent goes down tho
He must have been able to
He must have been able to flog off his "investment" property to some idiotic sucker after all.
No mention of collapsing
No mention of collapsing house prices.
All will be OK.
Your really trying hard,
Your really trying hard, arent You??
Not really, Anonymous. PIs
Not really, Anonymous. PIs are naturally happy people and I guess my happiness stands out amongst the doom and gloom of some posters to this site.
At least everyone knows what I invest in!
"Greedy, deluded" = "Happy".
"Greedy, deluded" = "Happy".
happy pills?
happy pills?
Na. Probably happy tenants
Na.
Probably happy tenants I'd say.
HA HA HA HA Ha
HA HA HA HA Ha
Whoa - that's a very telling
Whoa - that's a very telling speech by Bill English. Education and welfare cuts here we come. He's most certainly readying NZ for the IMF-style austerity measures. Had to happen.
Wanna bet the wealthy will
Wanna bet the wealthy will suffer cuts? Anyone? No? Didn't think so.
How can the wealthy get cuts?
How can the wealthy get cuts? There is nothing to cut they pay for everything
Can you see him re-elected if
Can you see him re-elected if he proposes to do this? I think not...
And btw I'd rather pay for
And btw I'd rather pay for education than porn movies for MPs. As for a welfare state, those who believe NZ is a "welfare" or "nanny" state clearly haven't lived outside of NZ/Oz/UK/US. (Gosh I must be bored today).
most are still in denial 1.
most are still in denial 1. thinking tomorrow the new boom will start. Thats what agents will be telling buyers
Agreed. The majority showing
Agreed. The majority showing no signs yet of emerging from denial.
It wasn't a boom, it was a
It wasn't a boom, it was a bubble.
How many potential buyers
How many potential buyers will take themselves out of the market when they realise that a drop from 'insanely overpriced' to 'extremely overpriced' doesn't make something a good buy.
As for sellers, I'm asking $9000 for this second hand Wilbur Smith paperback. Of course, unless some sucker actually buys it, I'm just delusional.
i know it was a bubble as we
i know it was a bubble as we have you to remind us. But agents are talking about the next"boom" buy at the bottom and all that nonsense
No doubt some people will
No doubt some people will happily buy at the bottom, but that's a long way off.
But chances are that few will have the money to buy houses by then, and those that do will be unwilling to waste their money.
As Mervyn King (BOE) famously
As Mervyn King (BOE) famously said. "The price of a house is a matter of opinion but the debt is real".
That's a really interesting
That's a really interesting quote. Personally I reckon the NZ economy will just catch up with property investors and the whole debacle eventually. I was having a couple of drinks with a mate of mine the other day who is a senior accountant and he said that people just don't realise how poorly so many businesses are doing at the moment. He sees little light at the end of this tunnel for quite some time and I agree. The next dip down in this recession is coming as the world de-leverages and it will bring higher interest rates regardless of what the RBNZ decides to do. Chuck in higher unemployment and you have all the ingredients you need for a depressing real estate landscape.
best comment so far. We are
best comment so far. We are going into the double dip recesson wise. Businesses I talk to in all areas have never been so slow including building supplies and commercial builders.
Golly! Bill's gone to Stage 5
Golly! Bill's gone to Stage 5 !
Bill likes stage 5. His next
Bill likes stage 5. His next pitch will be to bring on NZ saviour. Wait for it....... mining yes lets get on with it.
The average NZ investor won't
The average NZ investor won't be interested unless you tell them it's a house mine.
Sigh. When did I get so cynical?
Very good! :D
Very good! :D
"The government gives free
"The government gives free childcare, free compulsory education, no interest on tertiary ... and pay per week per child. Everything is free so why should people save?"
THIS guy is MoF? Gadzooks, but we are poked!
People don't save because they can't save, because THEY ARE PAID TOO LITTLE!
Bill 'Double Dipton' English is the one who "gets everything for free", like all his govt mates, so it's not surprising that he doesn't realise that the price of everything else has skyrocketed, and people can't keep up because they haven't had a real pay increase in more than a decade, unlike rorting troughing politicians. Right, Double Dipton?
You have to laugh (or weep) when you hear ane archetypal privileged baby boomer like Dippers venting about "no interest on tertiary" when his tertiary education was ENTIRELY FREE, courtesy of his parents' generation and those before.
I wonder what the Aussies,
I wonder what the Aussies, who are in deep official denial mode, will have to say about our MoF spouting off about their overpriced market!
They will deny it.
They will deny it.
Recent comment from Glenn
Recent comment from Glenn Stevens (Head of the Aussie Reserve Bank):
"I think it is a mistake to assume that a riskless, easy guaranteed way to prosperity is just to be leveraged up into property. It isn't going to be that easy"
Also this on the Aussie property market from a man who manages a $106 Billion Dollar fund:
"He said yesterday that Australia had an unmistakable housing bubble and that prices would need to come down by 42 per cent to return to the long-term trend."
Mean asking price of $410k
Mean asking price of $410k (and creeping up) tells us nothing about where house prices are actually going.
Median selling price of $360k (and edging down) tells us something, but not a lot.
Home loan approvals ytd (plummeting) tells us heaps (see RBNZ website for stats)
Anonymous: RE: "However
Anonymous: RE: "However there are all those gullible simpletons who raced out and DID buy at the peak, and who now owe more than they can pay. They are the ones who will be (and are) reducing their asking prices once it has finally sunk into their thick skulls that the bubble has burst and they were ripped-off."
..So you were able to predict the top of the market right?
I bought in 2003 & 2005 (having already had 2 properties) sold one in late 2006 :-) on a hunch. bought again a month ago for 200k of registered valuation from feb.
I thought the market in 2003 when I bought was the top...I bought in a considered manor believing in the properties abilty to earn cash, which is has.
Then again in 2005 thought that surely must be the TOP..but no not quite.
Give people a break. so long as you are making an informed decission then go for it whatever the market. Life is a risk...and you can't take either houses or debt with you...:-)
Actually what’s been missing from the market is “quality” houses- you know the “dry” well built homes that once were common.
This has had and will continue to have a effect on housing market in NZ and particularly AK. More so than interest rates and the negativity of a few pessimistic bloggers.
Cheers.
blaaah blaaah blaaaaah look
blaaah blaaah blaaaaah
look at me I'm really a really clever PI
blaaaah blaaah blah
Anonymous, you seem a very
Anonymous, you seem a very bitter person. I assume you are not very successful financialy.
Tell us what went wrong.
"Give people a break. so long
"Give people a break. so long as you are making an informed decission then go for it whatever the market. Life is a risk...and you can't take either houses or debt with you...:-)"
I agree!
All signs point to a period
All signs point to a period of "double dip" downturn ahead
Here's how 'leaky' homes will
Here's how 'leaky' homes will afect the market. They will bring general prices...down. Ask yourself; If you want to buy in Auckland, and you have a choice of a leasehold nighmare for $50k, or it's equivalent freehold, sound at, I don't know, $350k, which would you choose? Now the numbers are an example, but at some stage the $50k jobbies becomes worth the rental expense etc. and get sold. So the sound ones don't etc. That brings sound house prices down, and unsound ones up. The average of those two figures is... lower than that of today.
What is it like waking up
What is it like waking up every morning with a negative view on everything, were's the fun in that? Don't get me wrong I'm not saying that people should not be aware of market conditions... people need to be aware of that and their personal situations....but really.
Does it not get back to the cost of building a house and the land cost. average home $800 - $1200 per Sqm. a home you'd actualy want to live in maybe $1500 - $ 2000 per Sqm. these prices are fundamental to the question of how far prices will go down if at all for whatever period. Land values, yes I can see them tracking down in a quite market. but that would be maybe 1/5 to 1/4 the total cost of a house/land package value.
Jaysus, you just can't get
Jaysus, you just can't get your head around the facts, huh?
The fundamentals are all "negative" and "pessimistic". That's how it is. You don't like it, you wish it was different because you owe a s**t-load of money on rapidly devaluing wooden boxes, but your distaste for the facts and wishful thinking can't change them.
EVERYTHING solid is against residential property "investment" now, and always was. If it weren't for your greed and gullibility, and willingness to "believe the dream", you'd have seen it for yourself.
I see the facts.... Funny you
I see the facts....
Funny you should say FACTS - let’s not confuse statistics for reality. people have, and indeed this site has used/manipulated “facts” (read “statistics”) to suit their own prejudices OH and I forgot commercial aspirations I.E. to sell advertising space and build reader/viewership a bit like a tabloid paper.... “man born with two heads sues toothpaste manufacturer” “property price the lowest they have been all week!!!”
I also see that I have a substantial (and soon to be increased) rental income to support my “stupid” and not to mention “arrogant” decision to by property as a retirement investment. I do think at this rate I may semi retire at 55-56...at least take a year off and travel.
Oh and let’s not forget the 30k I have invested this year in upgrading some of my properties...helping out our struggling building industry.
But actually yes I would be a bit upset if the values of my properties went down 50% on paper from today’s prices but only if it was when I wanted to sell.
I would sit and I would still have my rental income, a job (still), a home I enjoy living in, in a city I love, in a country that is awesome.
Oh by the way maybe I should have sold it all and invested it....actually stupid me I should have invested in Hanover like one of my tenants did with their 300k from a house sale...
Enjoy your evening.
Simpleton. What a silly name.
Simpleton. What a silly name. You are very wise not simple.
Great post simpleton. I am
Great post simpleton. I am sure you will be sucessfull in your investing. Hang in there.
The grumpies on this site wont.
Great post simpleton. Good to
Great post simpleton.
Good to see there is another happy person on this site.
Another key point is that the NZ'ed house building market is different to the US house building market. In NZ'ed there are no really big publicly-funded companies putting up millions of houses and hoping to sell them on completion. In NZ'ed most houses are built by small building companies or one-man bands , for a person who requests it.
Big difference there.
"This time it's different" -
"This time it's different" - Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
No. It's always been
No. It's always been different between how the market functions in the States and here in NZ'ed.
The States are prone to massive over-building at times because of the activities of large housing construction companies.
In NZ'ed, it's much more 'one-house-per-buyer' at a time.
I agree. All these people
I agree. All these people arguing despite all common sense that NZ house prices will go up are really negative people. Rising house prices are the last thing this country needs right now.
Actually I for one never said
Actually I for one never said that I think house prices will go up. I just don't believe they will drop in the way some on this site are postulating or in some cases “craving”.
Frankly an average increase of about 1 to 2 percent per year for the next 5 - 10 years would be OK by me. But even if they are at the same level in 5 years so what?
Really, the last thing this country needs right now are negative people...
The last thing this country
The last thing this country needs right now would be, say, an asteroid strike, or a mega-quake, or maybe an outbreak of the plague.
A few negative people never hurt anything or anybody, and let's not lose sight of the fact that most here aren't being negative, they are merely speaking the truth.
Of course, since you have existed within a world of hype and self-delusion for the past few years, truth and facts seem like negativity and pessimism.
This "negative people"
This "negative people" argument reeks of "lets put our head in the sand and send out positive thoughts to the universe". BTW I think most people on this site are happy for people to create wealth. Some just have the veiw point that the property market is saturated and that there is no one left to buy at current prices (based on facts not wishfull thinking).
Rising house prices = rising
Rising house prices = rising debt. That's a BIG negative.
And all you say makes sense,
And all you say makes sense, simpleton ( cool!). I'm not actually negative, just realistic. And to emphasise the point of yours that I support, re cost of building etc. The leaky home example from my last post illustrates well how cost of materials and labour will bear no part in the price that the leakies sell for. They may well be down to 'land, less removal cost'. That's where the contagion effect will permiate through the whole propety sector, especially in Auckland.
Yes, being realistic is not
Yes, being realistic is not being negative its just being realistic.
Nicholas. You continue to be
Nicholas. You continue to be a total DICKHEAD!!
But budge they will!....
But budge they will!....
Most houses bubble in a way.
Most houses bubble in a way.
Nick Arrant - you forgot to
Nick Arrant - you forgot to mention the houses that burn down each year. that supports your "theory" too. Whack job, taking any extreme and milking it.
So how does a burnt down
So how does a burnt down house get sold for any residual value? A leaky property is still a property. It's just that I, and probably you, wouldn't pay full price for it. Hence at some stage it, the 22,000 they's, gets absorbed into the pool of properties at a lower price, moving the whole average down.
"WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH! MY
"WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH! MY HOUSE SPECULATOR FANTASIES HAS COME CRASHING DOWN AND SO NOW I'M GONNA LASH OUT AT ANY ONE WHO IS TALKING SENSE! WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!"
Have you forgot to take your
Have you forgot to take your pills today? :-)
Bo hoo for the poor PI's Booo
Bo hoo for the poor PI's
Booo hooo, sob, sob, sob
Also Nick - care to describe
Also Nick - care to describe the transmission mechanism for this "contagion"? Couldn't it equally increase demand for soundly contructed houses, thereby isolating the contagion.
Similarly, your previous post that those most indebited will be a "catalyst' for a market collapse. Really? If no-one else is selling?
Demand ,yes, Price rise, no.
Demand ,yes, Price rise, no. The comapative price for the defective house will drag the overall price down. As I said, it's a trade off. $50k for a leaky or $350k for a goodie? You choose. And at some stage between the two prices, you will settle on your financial/lifestyle choice.
You, of anybody, should know
You, of anybody, should know that the "average" statistic is bunk. Who bases selling or buying decisions on a national, or even a regional average? Are all 22,000 going to sell at once.
Pause, touch, think, then engage.
Well there's 144 of the
Well there's 144 of the little suckers next door to me as I write; all looking for a new owner. All tainted, probably sold to unsuspecting invetors who will loose not only whatever equity they have/had, but the capacity to re-enter the property market as they could have before. It won't be at once, as you say, but a progressive and continual release, further dampening prices. And let's not even go to the 'leashold' debacle that's emerging in Auckland. Would you buy a leashold, now that there's another $10k per year costs coming your way on some of those waterfront chappies?
RE agents use the term
RE agents use the term negative of anyone who disagrees with the crap that comes out of there mouths. When the bubble was really humming there favourite line was "I will only deal with you if you have cash" Now they are praying for it.
agree. I think wishing for NZ
agree.
I think wishing for NZ property prices to correct sooner rather than the bubble getting any bigger and crashing harder is positive thinking.
Pretending the bubble isn't real is negative.
Anonymous - I think those are
Anonymous - I think those are your fantasies - and if you read the posts, the replies make more sense than the original posts.
Nothing has crashed in my world, and won't be soon. You need to grow up and stop using the Caps Lock.
Or ask yourself why you care.
This is a great article on
This is a great article on the NZ property bubble being over.
http://www.findata.co.nz/Blogs/353/NZ_house_prices_follow_classic_bubble...
Nicholas. I told you to stay
Nicholas. I told you to stay at school and get an education. You can't even spell lose. Only one o.
That's not so bad. Most
That's not so bad. Most people seem to randomly use "there", "they're" and "their" and I won't even start on the "it's" instead of "its" (she says with a terrible French accent, errr I mean terribly cute of course ;) ).
theirs' no beter thyme to bye
theirs' no beter thyme to bye
Normal good news for the
Normal good news for the housing market and yet the dooms dayers are still around waiting for their next benefit to go into their account and bludging off us taxpaying property investors. Aren't you just wonderful individuals!!
The man you say such silly
The man you say such silly things, so silly that I think you are a fraud and dont even live in your own house. If you even put up one original and sensible thought or argument you would have more credibility. I think you are an agent or just someone who loves provoking one point of view to stir up the other side.
Anon.What silly thing did I
Anon.What silly thing did I say? I am a genuine property investor with plenty of property investments and always looking for more. I am sick of you negatives continuing to knock something you know little about. What you say is not going to affect property prices as you haven't got any money to purchase or borrowing power.
Another silly comment. You do
Another silly comment. You do not know who I am or what I own. You attack the people who rent your properties off you. You make it sound like all tenants are lazy bludgers on the dole who spend spend spend. Say something constructive for a change or you are no better than Wally, Gordon and the like.
As I said it makes me and others think you are just someone fabricating your circumstances and stirring things along.
I see what has happened here.
I see what has happened here. You are taking a micro approach to what is esentially a macro problem!
ha ha ha good news is in the
ha ha ha
good news is in the eye of the beholder
good news for you = bad news for sane people
Those who can afford to buy
Those who can afford to buy will buy no matter what, for home buyers thats their dream, individual identity, achievement, personal stratification.....etc
Its doesn’t matter how much they pay as long as they can afford. No different than buying a pair of jeans you love at a discount, if you really like the jeans you have to pay the full price. You can always wait for the discount but might not have the right size anymore or could be out of stock.
You work hard for what you want to have, from a pair of jeans , car or even a house, its all the same.
Investment is however another story.
I only buy is sales now. It's
I only buy is sales now. It's tight arse 2010, didn't you know
Im very positive about the
Im very positive about the fact that the young couple I know that just married will be able to afford a nice home in a good suburb real soon. Now that is what positive is all about
small kev. I can afford to
small kev. I can afford to buy but are not. No matter what .
RJ, That's because you are
RJ,
That's because you are not an idiot and obviously understand the meaning of fair value.
10% below 2007 peak.Doubt it
10% below 2007 peak.Doubt it . More like pre 2002. His own data supports this
JP, yep good article, but
JP, yep good article, but nothing novel as a number of us have been predicting the same here for a long, long time
I think we'll be about 7-10% lower than 2007 peaks by the end of 2011, probably closer to 7-8% than 10% (ie. a drop of another 4-5%)
In real terms that would have been a fall of 20-25%
People wanting to profit from
People wanting to profit from excessive capital gain, thats greed.
People wishing for the housing market to crash so they can pay less for a house, thats greed also.
Humans are selfish because we always want want want, hate and jealous.
The price of everything including food, power, houses.....are going to go up forever, unless we can have all these selfish elements deleted from our human nature.
RJ said: "small kev. I can
RJ said:
"small kev. I can afford to
0 points small kev. I can afford to buy but are not. No matter what ."
How do we know that?
Just a comment about asking
Just a comment about asking prices for residential property ..... they are completely irrelevant to any statistical model and prove absolutely nothing .... hate to sound like a broken record ... BUT A PROPERTY IS WORTH ONLY WHAT SOMEONE WILL PAY YOU FOR IT...
IMHO there are going to be some disappointed vendors out there in RE land..... WHERE ARE YOUR BUYERS AT YOUR LIST PRICE ?!?
you dont need to know. The
you dont need to know. The point is I know. And since Bernard is omniscient on this site he probably does to
Great the REAA guy, who has a
Great the REAA guy, who has a job making sure agents arn't dodgy is dodgy. Why am I not surprised
Markymark - good set of
Markymark - good set of points there & of course 30% of homes have mo mortgage and another 30% have less than 50% gearing
Even in the worst of the
Even in the worst of the global crisis around 5,000 homes sold each month in NZ, the crisis is over - life goes on as normal, tax cuts coming - no worries mates!
Ha Ha Ha Ha Your poor poor
Ha Ha Ha Ha
Your poor poor man
Ha Ha Ha Ha You poor poor man
Ha Ha Ha Ha
You poor poor man
Auckland house prices dropped
Auckland house prices dropped another ten grand in June.
Bill english still thinks
Bill english still thinks house prices are way overpriced:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1065...
So what's your point.
So what's your point. Governments keep spending money they haven't got, so it is a bit rich coming from him. Where are the Governments saving efforts?
Targeting tax avoiding
Targeting tax avoiding property investors like you for starters. Do you want the government to try harder do you?
Hmmm.....wonder if he's got
Hmmm.....wonder if he's got any plans to do something about that soon.
For most home owners, being
For most home owners, being those that own one property and live in it, I don't see why they wouldn't budge on their prices. So what if prices are down 10% or whatever. If you are selling because you are moving to a new location for work or schooling or you want a house that better meets you needs then you are probably selling one house to buy another. If you end up selling for 10% less then you end up probably buying for 10% less, doesn't it all just come out in the wash.
exactly. this is the point
exactly. this is the point that most people miss. rising prices are only good for those taking their profit and exiting the market. for everyone else they are a problem leading to higher debt and a more precarious financial position. for those looking to get in to the market or move within the market rising prices make the first rung of the ladder harder to step on to and all the subsequent rungs further apart. trading up becomes harder in a rising market. rising prices are a negative for the majority of people. to claim otherwise is misguided at best.
Sell Sell Sell before it is
Sell Sell Sell before it is too late.
the Man - my point is even
the Man - my point is even the top wigs are saying housing is overpriced, and clearly see that as problematic and unsustainable. This is a very unusual move by a top MP - usually MPs do what ever they can to talk housing up
And I think the Govt know that they need to do more to discourage property investment, and will do it in the next budget, although the market might drop enough by itself for them to keep an arm's length
Time will tell
I actually think English is preparing us for some new policy initiatives. The Urban Task Force are overdue to report back on their rveiew of planning limits. I am not surprised if this is a precursor to a recommendation to severely reduce planning regulation
Matt. Thanks for that.
Matt. Thanks for that. However there is no way a National Government will do any more before the next election. What could they do anyway. Capital Gains? I doubt it.
What other investment would you suggest or you are invested in?
I get annoyed with all the doomdayers saying property is overpriced.
There seems to be a hell of a difference in prices from Auckland to the South island.
I agree if you have to pay $500,000 for a property investment in Auckland then it is too dear on fundamentals.
If you have to pay that you should be looking in other areas.
All my properties combined are totally positively geared giving great income,so don't keep knocking property per se.It depends on the gearing!!!
We just bought in Auckland,
We just bought in Auckland, offered 15% less than asking, unconditional. House had been on the market 5 weeks with 1 failed offer. We paid a little more than they previous owner did 4 years earlier. They lost on the deal. We are happy we have a house, after sitting on the sidelines for the last 8 years and a very small mortgage, less than half what we paid renting, but we will try and pay it down within 3 years and be mortgage free.
Congrats! Sounds great
Congrats! Sounds great buying - enjoy the new home!
I cannot believe that after
I cannot believe that after waiting 8 years you bought now and have the courage to brag about the bargain you got. You did not get a bargain. You got the market price for that property for a cash buyer on that day. You have created the market price and when a valuer does a valuation tomorrow for someone he takes your purchase price into account and that sets the benchmark for your area. Don't you read the news. Prices are going to fall even further from here. You could have waited and bought a better home and borrowed less.There is always a better home than the one you are looking at. There is so much on the market.
Well, yeah, while all you say
Well, yeah, while all you say is perfectly valid but steady on. Sounds like the person above is happy, apparently not stretched financially and are buying a home to live in so good luck to them. And congratulations too. Buying your own home is exciting and emotional and the cold hard economic eye you should apply to investing doesn't totally apply. So having said this I have no patience for the ranting property investors on this site who are trying and conspicuously failing to justify their decisions.
Well, well, what have we
Well, well, what have we here: 'The Man', 'small kev', 'Lucky Basket'.
All these 'users' show up at the same time and saying the same things the same way. This happened yesterday too.
Bernard, you really need to sort out a verification process for your site ASAP to cull out all these idiotic sockpuppets.
May as well call themselves
May as well call themselves 'Lambchop' and 'Sooty'.
its not there fault if they
its not there fault if they have the same mum but 3 different and unknown Dad.i.e who put the bullet in the furnace
RJ. Their not there. If you
RJ. Their not there. If you can't spell that how can you have any credibility?
Well,just proves the RE
Well,just proves the RE agents are not working!!
Don't call me Sooty.
Don't call me Sooty.
Sooty
Sooty
"don't call me sooty."
"don't call me sooty." "sooty."
funniest exchange on this website. priceless!
Ok Lambchop
Ok Lambchop
We are different people and
We are different people and extremely knowledgeable. It is better to be happy than sad socks!!!
maybe Shane Jones has a new
maybe Shane Jones has a new pasttime-blogging.
Some of these junior mint
Some of these junior mint PI's are only going to lose bigger the longer they hold out. NZ is slowly but surely introducing it's own 'austerity packages' under the guise of the ETS, GST, ACC levies. Then there's the 'rates' and ICR increases via council and the RBNZ. All of which increases the cost of living for everyone and puts cold water for decades on the property dreamers still out there waiting for the next big 'ponzi scheme'. Wages are going no where for ages so i suggest you all better sell up fast and get rid of all your debt because 'round 2' in the global meltdown has begun, NZ is not immune and only the debt free will survive. bye now
what we need is "a new world
what we need is "a new world order" or do we have one and just havnt woken up to it yet.
Having just cashed out of the
Having just cashed out of the property market, there is no way in hell I'll be getting back in.
Money earning 5.2% in rabobank is massively subsidising my rental outgoing. My local government just announced a 17% increase in rates, bollard just keeps adding on 25 base points.
The difference between rental cost and cost of mortgage/rates of the same properties are just crazy. When I factor in the post tax interest I've never been richer. Five year plan has my investments (incredibly low risk investment) will see me getting wealthier and wealthier.
p.s. I'm a 35 year old family man. Exactly the sucker you property investors thought would be paying huge prices for your dreams of early retirement.
LATHWTTB. What are you on?
LATHWTTB. What are you on? One rise of .25%. Can't you count. It is people like you we can make money on if you think you are better off renting and getting 5.2% less tax. Dreamer!!
Actually I have no 35YO
Actually I have no 35YO couples with children renting any of my properties at the moment. But here's the thing you are paying someone to live where you live right. And they are saving for their retirement (maybe) and you are helping whether you like it or not.
But hey best not dwell on that. So long as you and your partner are happy/comfortable doing what you’re doing what the hey.
Isn’t it fantastic that in NZ we are ALL so “well off” we can make these choices...insert… “Tear Fund” advert here... :-)
In any overstretched market,
In any overstretched market, if you dangle a carrot ,when you pull it up there will always be a Small Kev,The Man,Simpleton and MarkyMark.
SA. What the heck does your
SA. What the heck does your name mean? "Small Thinker" I would say!!
In 1633 one Semper augustus
In 1633 one Semper augustus was sold for 5000 guilders , and in 1637 just before the crash a price of 10000 guilders was asked !I am a tulip, and I can asure The Man that I am no 'small thinker.'Ironically it may be 'The Man' that suffers that dysfunction.Having sold family home in February I am now in Europe and can unequivocally say that our financial position is now stronger.(I can add that the other five homes listed in the same street at the same time are still unsold ,one relisted with a dual listing, one failing to sell at auction ,and the remaining three with reduced prices.Six months and still unsold).I can send you a history book or an article on smugness and how it may affect 'The Man' if you wish.
RJ said: (“its not there
RJ said:
(“its not there fault if they have the same mum but 3 different and unknown Dad.i.e who put the bullet in the furnace”)
Time to grow up? Been bullied at school?
This may be a reflection of your own family situation?
Came from a family that always communicate with each other this way? Angry, drunk, low dirty jokes?
Goes to show whats really going on in your head...
The quality of this website really is lowered...
Anon good nurse said:
(Well, well, what have we here: ‘The Man’, ‘small kev’, ‘Lucky Basket’.
Bernard, you really need to sort out a verification process...”)
Another angry one on here...
You can tell where ones social status is by the things they say and how they respond when they are feeling insecured from hearing things they dont want to hear.
Deep down you know what we are saying is right, thats why anger is your only reaction.
Bernard, please feel free to prove to them that ‘The Man’, “Lucky Basket’ and I are not in any way associated.
But its good to have like minded people on here.
HERE Here!!
HERE Here!!
the 3(0r 1) of you have some
the 3(0r 1) of you have some really deep seated issues with people who would disagree with you.Do not project your obviously deeply ingrained insecurities on to the rest of us.Please dont seek pschycological help or counselling as those people are usually the ones needing the most help.Just GROW UP
And there they are in a clump
And there they are in a clump again. It's like a clown car at the circus.
Kakapo. I know you probably
Kakapo. I know you probably have worked in the circus. ""The Clown"
Sorry gotta go and negotiate
Sorry gotta go and negotiate another deal.Cheers !!!
Good luck. But if you want
Good luck. But if you want to sell them all you'll need to lower your asking prices to meet the real market.
Rate cuts were announced on
Rate cuts were announced on Thursday by the ANZ and National bank dropping the 5 year fixed rate by 0.74% to 7.75%. All terms from 2 to 5 years have seen drops in a significant turnaround from recent rises.
So explain these big reductions gloomies!
A signal of nasty deflation
A signal of nasty deflation on the way.
I see all the doom and gloom
I see all the doom and gloom posters are still at it.
I keep noticing how the happy posters are invariably the property investors.
What does that tell us?
I know...they have the money.
ignorance is bliss perhaps?
ignorance is bliss perhaps?
maybe ignorance is poverty?
maybe ignorance is poverty?
No, PIs have lots of debt
No, PIs have lots of debt which they willing pursued for the privilege of renting some wooden boxes from the bank.
Those of us who divested our property when we saw the inevitable end times approaching have shite-loads of cash stashed away, and no debt.
Even those who never bought homes and have always rented are likely to have fewer debts and more available capital than PIs.
No anonymous, please dont
No anonymous, please dont tell me you have money in cash. After inflation and tax the return on your cash will be almost nothing.
No wonder you are a perpetual negative poster. I would be if I was in your position too.
As a long-term and ongoing PI I have a stack of available capital, built up over years of PI'ing.
The future is so bright I have to wear shades.
This is what you don't
This is what you don't understand because you simply have no experience: I don't have merely the kind of petty cash you think of as "big money".
As per bank websites everywhere:
"Special rates may be available for deposits of $250,000 or more. For more information visit any branch..."
Now I have far more than $250,000 in savings. Much much more. Thus I am able to earn the interest rate I believe I should be earning, and the bank is sensible enough to agree.
What do the majority of PIs have? Debt, and lots of it. And some wooden boxes (which actually belong to the bank). Worst of all they paid too much for those wooden boxes, and now they're worth even less than they were when the PIs bought them, and losing value by the day.
Look, we know you're just some first year accounting student who lives with his mum and thinks he's "got us on the run", and who also believes he'll be a billionaire before he's 25, but all you're doing is making real PIs look even more foolish than they already do, if that's even possible.
Congrats on having $250000
Congrats on having $250000 plus in savings. What industry did you earn that in? Do more with it than putting it in a bank deposit. Inflation and tax will wreck its value.
I am a long-term property investor so the house values are today's but the debts are years ago's. Most PIs aren't like your "most PIs".
I would never want to be an accountant as it does not pay as much as rental income pays.
You can tell I am a PI (and therefore not an accountant) because I am a happy, positive person.
Anon.at 11.41pm. You have got
Anon.at 11.41pm. You have got nothing, you are only fantacizing
There seems to be a lot of
There seems to be a lot of negative comments from the pi's today.I cannot believe just how many are defending their cause with very negative and derogatory comments that attack those people who they don't like. When people tell you how much they have in the way of properties or other assets, its a bit like the guys who saying they are getting a lot of sex. It is generally the opposite. The pi's never put up any arguments. They just tell you how well they have done in a general way which is of course questionable and they just attack. To some it might smell a bit like fear.
If the most convincing
If the most convincing argument for the continuation of the bubble is a lot of empty bluster and insults, then that says it all, really.
You're forgetting Armageddon!
You're forgetting Armageddon! When WWIII breaks out in Louisiana, millions of rich Yanks will flock to NZ and buy up all our houses at inflated prices!
YA CAN'T LOSE WITH PROPERTY, MAAAAAAAAAATE!!!111
No negativity from PIs today
No negativity from PIs today ex agent.
And there shouldn't be given drops in the cost of money, confirmation of thousands of houses being bought and sold again last month and house prices holding up in the teeth of the worst recession in decades.
All's good for long-term property investors, and one doesn't need sex to be happy when one is a PI.
Just a long slow drop in
Just a long slow drop in prices over 5 to 10 years at least. That is the best scenario for pi's. The worst scenario big shake outs when there is bad news from Europe and alike. They are dropping in price and volumes . Just ask the agents leaving the industry and some have been very successful. And support staff in law firms, real estate firms and bank staff who are being made redundant. I believe Simpson Grieron have laid off some senior associates. You only do that when it is quiet. I know this because I was in the real estate industry. It is deadly quiet and getting quieter. The buyers are really getting astute. They know that things have turned and the bright ones are getting very hard to committ. If you believe otherwise you are not very bright and have your head in the sand.
Oh dear me ex agent, I reckon
Oh dear me ex agent, I reckon the view with my head in the sand would be better than the view you have just espoused.
Despite your doom, gloom and despondency outlook people are still buying houses (over 5000 average each month), banks are still wanting to lend money and cutting their rates to encourage us to borrow it. Tenants are still leasing houses.
Certainly things have gone quiet for estate agents regards turnover, but the market for Property investors is still good.
Given your comments thus far, I am not surprised you are an ex agent.
What a fool.
What a fool.
I have noticed how when your
I have noticed how when your line of debate runs out you resort to calling people a fool.
In my case, please at least preface the fool comments with the word rich!
Fortunatley I am rich just
Fortunatley I am rich just like you and do not need to work. I was very successful in selling real estate and made a lot of commissions from selling it. I had built up a large portfolio of rentals but started selling them off in 2007 when the intensity of the market started to slow down. Now I just live with my wife in a nice home and have my money in the bank where it is safe and getting deposit rates that will go up in time as your interest rates go up that you will be paying to the bank. When the time is right I will start buying rentals back. I think that will be some time away maybe 5 to 10 years. I will probably get it wrong and buy the first one or two too early but you never get it right. One thng I am sure of Rich Lister this is the wrong time to have a lot of property on your hands even with little debt on it. You are very sure of yourself but often when people get cocky like you and brag about how rich they are, they often have very little. The ones who have it do not need to crow about it. Just like the guy who says he is getting heaps of sex. In reality he is getting none.
So you do invest in property
So you do invest in property then!
Only difference 'tween you and me is you try and time the market.
Sounds like he timed the
Sounds like he timed the market very well, and you missed it so you're desperately (secretly) trying to talk it up ... but it's too late mate, the smart ones have already made it.
I don't try and time
I don't try and time anything.
I buy houses. I keep them.
Have done so for 25 years.
Timing a market involves lots of decisions; lots of decisions means more chances to get them wrong. So I try and make as few decisions as possible.
If you're smart you make the
If you're smart you make the right decisions and get rich. You aren't so your still stuck with your properties - repairing/maintaining etc them for the smart renters who save, while the smart investors got out in time and retired early.
But you do not have the
But you do not have the brains to see that no market goes in a straight line and when they move back they move. You have to be able to make a decision and live with it. You also have to be in the position where you can sell without making a loss. I was in that position as I got rid of all of mine in 2007/2008. Some of my properties I sold have already been sold again at a loss. I will take my time in building up a portfolio as the market has a lot lower to fall.
Good Call !
Good Call !
ex agent. I can see why you
ex agent. I can see why you are an ex agent!!! Look at the stats for property over the years. The trend is always up.
Why work when you don't need
Why work when you don't need to in a market that is getting thumped. Better to play golf and have a winter trip overseas. You just keep taking those pills the man and dream on. This year several thousand agents have left the industry as sales plummet.
Don't forget, The Man is not
Don't forget, The Man is not a real estate agent. Neither am I.
I think times are tough for some estate agents but that's not the same market function as property investors.
The two are completely different ways to earn money.
Don't be an agent, be an investor.
At the vey least you will have a happier outlook on life.
Ex agent. No pills just
Ex agent. No pills just adrenaline from excitement of property.
It is good that 000's of agents leave the industry. Too many like you anyway. More for the good ones. More money in the investing anyway.
I wouldn't want to sell a
I wouldn't want to sell a property for less than what I'd paid for it. It has been hammered into the general public that properties will keep increasing in price, so selling at a lower than paid for amount goes against the learning curve. I think a new learning curve is on it's way. 16% off the 2007 peak price is my estimate.
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