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Opinion: Exporters need to learn how to live with a volatile currency
By Infometrics economist Andrew Gawith Over the past two years the New Zealand dollar has trampolined spectacularly, plummeting almost 25% over the 12 months ended March 2009 and then rebounding 23% since then. Many exporters and importers are exasperated, while currency traders and economists have been made to look like chumps. But that won't stop them making currency forecasts; after all, some mug has to. Sorry, you won't get a currency pick in this column; the purpose is to look at the volatility of the currency, what has pushed it around over the past few years, the remarkable stability of the currency over the long-term, and the cost of currency volatility for investment and to economic growth.
The $NZ has definitely been more volatile over the past year or so. The standard deviation (a measure of how variable a series is) for the $US/$NZ exchange rate has increased significantly since mid-2008 and is around twice what it was for most of the 1990s. In simple terms, the daily fluctuations in the dollar have increased markedly with the $US/$NZ falling or rising from one day to the next by an average of 1% this year, compared to just 0.5% over most of the 1990s. Interestingly, the dollar has tracked the slumps and rebounds in the US stock market remarkably closely (see graph) suggesting financial markets' perception of risk has been the major factor driving our dollar. In the midst of the financial crisis investors rushed to what they perceived to be safe assets "“ fringe currencies such as the $NZ didn't rate so the currency fell almost as fast as share prices. However, as investors rediscovered their appetite for risk they ploughed back into exotic currencies and battered stocks. The $NZ and stock markets rose almost in lock step to the soothing sounds of recovery. But risk has not always been behind the wheel of the currency. 
Prior to the credit crisis, it was interest rates "“ New Zealand rates were higher than in most other developed economies so smart people borrowed (in, say, Japan) where interest rates were negligible, and invested in New Zealand. The so-called carry trade was based on making money from the interest rate differential "“ a higher return on the funds invested than on the cost of funds borrowed. Simple stuff really. But the carry trade meant a big inflow of capital chasing our high interest rates and that capital inflow drove the $NZ higher, conveniently adding to the returns the smart people were getting. The $NZ is also part of the commodity currency club whose membership includes Australia, Canada and South Africa. The argument goes that economies producing old-economy commodities will do particularly well in a world increasingly dominated by raw-material hungry countries like China and India. And so it has proven to be over the last year or so "“ the Australian dollar has increased by around 45% against the $US and the Canadian dollar is up by 17%. Fundamentals like the balance of payments seem almost irrelevant to the exchange rate. New Zealand runs one of the largest current account deficits relative to GDP of any western economy and has done so for 40 odd years. 
So we have a vague idea of what drives the currency, but where have such factors driven it to since it was floated in 1985? Well the short answer is.....nowhere. The trade weighted exchange rate has averaged 60.8 since 1985 "“ almost exactly the same as it was when the dollar was floated 24 years ago (61.79). That consistency hides some long periods when the currency was either below or above this long-term average, most recently above as a result of relatively high interest rates and more fundamentally a significant and sustained lift in the terms of trade. However, the data support the view that the real exchange rate tends to revert to fairly stable long term average, which suggests that as an economy we have made little or no progress over the last 25 years in lifting the value of what we produce. The volatility, or more correctly the large and sustained swings in the exchange rate have increased the risks associated with investing for our major export businesses "“ agriculture and tourism. The currency gyrations have also created havoc for many emerging manufacturing and high tech export businesses whose profits have swung wildly on the back of the yo-yoing dollar. Currency uncertainty is a killjoy for these industries. If we are serious about lifting New Zealand's growth rate and closing the gap with Australia, a more stable exchange rate is likely to be important in getting the required investment. Some countries, notably Brazil, have moved to discourage large speculative capital flows in an attempt to dampen the swings in their currencies. There may be other more fundamental policy responses that could help tame the swings. But short of going back to a fixed exchange rate, New Zealand businesses will have to rely on strategies (currency hedging, for example) to cushion the worst effects of the currency jumps and dives "“ the government won't come to their rescue anytime soon. ________________ * Infometrics is an economic information and forecasting company based in Wellington. To find out more, see its website here. This piece first appeared in the Dominion Post.
42 Comments
It's easy to call the
It's easy to call the correlation between the MSCI and the USD/NZD risk driven but really one of the biggest drivers must have been the huge capital flows from managed funds which were being rebalanced as the global equities see-sawed.
(Eg a fund 50% hedged US denominated global equities, 50% domestic fixed interest and cash might have needed to convert up to 15% of the total funds value into USD between Aug 08 and Mar 09, the same fund between Mar 09 and now would need to bring about 12% of its total funds value back into NZD)
Obviously currency traders latched onto this "equities" trade, which gave us one hell of a roller-coaster ride.
Without the huge amounts of real money moving from on/offshore we could have never had such volatility in the exchange rate. Currency traders alone could not be responsible for those movements.
Sad that the Govn wont
Sad that the Govn wont help then....nutty even, the Q is why wont the Govn help? if its a Q of policy then surely they understand (or do I mis-understand?) that exporters are crucial, so what are they left to suffer?
regards
steven - "why wont the
steven - "why wont the Govn help". IMO because they are wedded to what I've come to think of as an 'amusing interpretation of neo.lib'ism' and because most, if not all alternative solutions negatively impact on those deriving wealth by credit issuance and inflation of passive assets and said "those" they care more about than exporters, or indeed the rest of the nation. Hence their TINA approach to life. Or maybe I'm just being too cynical.
Not USD/NZD but NZD/USD. When
Not USD/NZD but NZD/USD.
When USD/NZD is less than 1.0, the value of 1 US dollar is less than the value of 1 NZ dollar.
Andrew I'm exasperated by this
Andrew I'm exasperated by this type of commentary. The swings in the currency are not just a 'kill joy" for exporters they are life threatening. You say that a stable exchange rate "is likely to be important in getting the required investment" (in exporting). It's actually essential if there is to be a continuation of the existing investment never mind the chances of getting any new money invested.
Anyone can make observations about what has happened and the likely reasons and influences on what has caused it. You don't need a degree in anything except the bleeding obvious to do that. Where are the ideas for doing something about it. Where is the urgency to tackle what is the single most important problem facing exporters today?
When you are up to your ass in alligators you don't need an economist to tell you what's caused the exceptional flooding. You need everyone in the neighbourhood lending a hand to either shoot the alliagtors or help get your ass out of there - particularly if you are the one that holds the key that will prevent the alligators invading everyone else's territorry shortly!
The govt does not want
The govt does not want our dollar to fall. It is borrowing more than $250m a day to fund the system if the dollar falls the debt will be even bigger.
Most exporters have to live
Most exporters have to live with many other volatile scenarios,
protectionisms and massive competition. I think the free market here in small New Zealand has its limit, especially without better government involvement and cooperation.
It is very hard to
It is very hard to plan to invest in New Zealand for an export based business, excluding land speculation disguised as business investment. Most of our international competitors can sell into a home market many times larger than ours and then export as well. We on the other hand have to export most of what we do as our home market is so small. So while our competitors may also suffer currency movements like ours ( although not many do) they do not suffer it for most of their sales income , unlike our own exporters. One more reason we have a small export base excluding commodities.
Brilliant article! However, it begs
Brilliant article!
However, it begs the question as to why we compare our currency to the US dollar. I understand we also have an index weighted to a currency basket that we follow, but the US dollar seems to be the center piece for comparison.
The US dollar has been on a roller coster of its own in the past few years, and this has certainly not helped, but conditions are bound to get worst for the US dollar before they get better, and with respect to other commodity currencies (e.g. Aussie dollar) the Kiwi seems to be fairly stable. Likewise for currencies of underdeveloped nations with whom we trade constantly but sparsely. Perhaps we need a different system, one in which we trade with other countries without using the US dollar as intermediary currency, which gives the USSA an unfair advantage. Besides, it seems like the US dollar is loosing ground continuosly against commodities and gold, and there are countries which have dethroned the US dollar completely in their mutual trade. If New Zealand should follow these examples, we would be better off for it, and our currency should regain the stability exporters and importers yearn for.
@Les: Considering the Govn is
@Les: Considering the Govn is supposed to be for business, its a gas (not). Personally Ive long considered SMBE's abused by both main parties yet they are as a general rule our life blood. Time and time again I see National sucking up to large businesses, my conclusion is their MPs are busy looking for future directorships and election bribes....and not looking after NZ. I used to see similar in the UK from Labour and the Tories....the loyals got taken for granted while the swing voting constituancies got more than their fair share of money.
I think this Govn's fixation of reducing "red tape" is a mis-nomer. We have in NZ about the easiest place in the world to do business from a Govn and local Govn point of view, what Isee as causing SMBE's problems are larger companies who have monopolies and charge accordingly....thats what we should be fixing.
@Brian W & Giles B & W. Kunz: agree.
@VALENTINA: I wouldnt agree....To my mind if we are "cheap" then we earn that money coming in by selling produce instead of borrowing it, the Govn also then gets tax income and less outgoings as Kiwis are employed.
regards
Another day of patching the
Another day of patching the holes in Noddyland...the giant property ponzi economy that owes so much to so many stupid politicians or so many decades...time to run wall to wall tv advertising across the world selling Noddyland as the place to be...gotta pork those immigrant numbers John..nothing else to do but run with the same failed stupidity of letting in a flood of migrants to fake some positive GDP...Hurry John...get the image machine cranked up...
W.Kunz and Giles Barker both
W.Kunz and Giles Barker both make good points. these things are important. What most people seem to miss though is the fact that NZ's GDP has a very high percentage of exports compared to most of the people we compare ourselves with. USA, UK and even Australia.
It all makes sense when you think about it because there simply isn't enough internal activity with 4M people to sustain the standard of living we aspire to. Even with that high level of exports we still borrow as a nation to maintain our standard of living. This is all very complex with a mix of low value added exports, too high costs of a welfare state that we simply can't afford and too high government costs all contributing - plus plenty more things too numerous to mention. However if we want to keep some of these costs like world class hospitals and child health care we need to do more than lower our internal costs of government etc, laudable though that effort is. We need to export more and we need to make those exports of a high value add to the economy.
How do we do that. Well these blogs cover most of it and everyone comments but nobody actually does much that is helpful. If you listen to John Walley he will tell you that the very most important thing we can do to help exporters right now is have a lower value to the dollar. Never mind the nonsense about the Kiwi isn't as badly overpriced against every other currency than the US dollar. It is too high and it prevents us paying good wages to our tradespeople who can win us the special high value added work.
The next thing Mr Walley will tell you is that the dollar is too volatile. This helps no-one. Exporters can't plan. a couple of years with the dollar around 70cents will kill exporters in the value added space. They can't invest in marketing efforts to build a base that can sustain a couple of years of losses just waiting for more favourable trading conditions. People write loads of nonsense about hedging. It is simply out of reach for small exporters. Talk to people who know about these things, not financial dealers who have a deal to sell but don't consider the costs, and then the final effect when the hedge expires and you are left in a big hole.
The awful truth is the Labour Party politicians were constantly told about all this while they were in government and did nothing except introduce the R&D tax credit after about eight years and tell us to stop moaning. The Natuonal Party leader told us that if it ends in culture - Horticulture, viticulture, aquaculture or agriculture - or it helped tourism it would get support from his party but the rest was all too hard down here with all our problems in the manufacturing space. To add to this they took away the only good thing Labour had done and since then we've had words and mumbling about wanting to set up an economy that will support export growth and zero action in that regard.
It isn't rocket science. We need economic settings that are different than those designed in books written by economists from nations with different economies. There are many examples of countries and companies doing different things and succeeding.
Doing that is leadership not managing and we won't get there without leadership that can think outside the box. Seen any sign of that lately?
No argument there BW...but I'm
No argument there BW...but I'm sorry to report that govt will not change from being a poll driven bunch determined to stay at the high trough supping on the best power can provide. You are not going to get a trimmed down govt...too many friends to curry favour with...too many other snouts to look after...too many perks to enjoy...The focus is on power for the sake of being in power and never will be on building a stable economy with a stable population. It is the system of govt that is at fault. It encourages waste and stupidity on the part of govt and discourages risk taking.
These politicians are far more concerned about setting up future directorships, knighthoods and their post political positions of wealth, than they will ever be about the country. Ask any of them in private "what about the country" and the reply will be.."...what?..."
ERIC JOHNSTON November 25, 2009(the
ERIC JOHNSTON
November 25, 2009(the Age)
RATINGS agency Standard & Poor's has warned that nearly all the world's big banks - including Australia's major lenders - have insufficient funds to cover their lending exposures and risk a ratings downgrade unless they move to bolster their balance sheets over the next 18 months.
The warning follows the release of a tougher global measure of bank capital by Standard & Poor's, which has found that most large banks do not meet the minimum 8 per cent threshold under the credit ratings agency's new risk-adjusted capital ratio.""
.........the approaching storm!!!!!
QED...we are set to see
QED...we are set to see banks offer higher deposit rates to attract capital which they will not be able to lend out!..leading to falling profits unless they raise mort rates...which means more pressure on the bubble of madness increasing the likelihood of an implosion in 2010...the likely failure of more marginal manufacturing outfits and more unemployment..anyone see a different pathway out there in the fog ??
Wally: You are barking up
Wally: You are barking up the right tree. Implosion is no longer a possibility, it is certain. So much of our government and corporate debt is denominated in US dollars, through US lending institutions that we can do no more than hang on for the ride and hope that when there is a re-set, post collapse, that our government can sue for agreeable terms.
My sense is that Global debt will become centralised in a World Bank type institution in a new currency. Unfortunately, investing in anything other than hard assets - like gold, is whistling past the graveyard thinking. I think Bollard and Key both know this; hence the lack of substantial action. The one thing we can do however, is put the New Zealand economy on a path of balanced budgets and a tax structure that makes sense.
...that tree is a diseased
...that tree is a diseased Ulmus x hollandica.
Wally & Doug. I saw
Wally & Doug. I saw Meredith Whitney interviewed on the box the other day and she was asked if the banks were capitalised enough -- she answer NO without taking a breath.
So I ask the questions :
1. We are told we have all this talent running the banks which they cannot afford to lose so they have to pay moonbeam salaries/bonuses. If they are so good why can't they see the undercapitalisation and accept the the bank needs to retain earnings and they can't be paid as much ?
2. When will the shareholders of the banks wake up to whats happening ?
Brian made good points =
Brian made good points = increase productivity.
Why New Zealand never industrialised is a mystery for me. For how much can we say: "Well, it is cheaper to buy overseas" Overall/ long term is it ?
For how much longer can we afford so much depending on overseas products and entire infrastructure ? Power stations/ transport systems etc. ? Because of these reasons for how much longer can we afford to export our young brains.
Without major changes = increasing productivity in the real economy we are losing "The battle" on many fronts.
Walter
Isn't it cool to be
Isn't it cool to be able to cross-link to other threads and save time repeating yourself:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/09/24/exchange-rate-r...
Read to the end.
Cheers, Les.
Les, John and others I'm
Les, John and others I'm not sure if you really understand what I mean. So, here a more detailed article, explaining another idea how to improve our national economy.
Eco Industrial Park
We all agree NZ must become more productive in order to become more independent and wealthier as a nation. Many sensible articles have been written here introducing better condition in the monetary system and other measures.
Coming from a strong manufacturing country, I'm looking the situation from a different angle.
Fundamentally we must produce and export not only more, but especially more valuable widgets/ products. As a nation we cannot afford the volume of imports. We must reduce our massive account deficit and change from consumption to a manufacturing culture.
Obviously NZ has a reasonable good education system to provide the necessary potential for our workforce. Unfortunately talented and skilful young people export them selves to other countries, because of lack or more interesting and better paid job in other countries. Entrepreneurial skilled people setting up their businesses are often struggling to get access to resources - materials/ technology etc. in this country. As a nation this factors are economic suicidal.
Too many products/ components and knowledge must be imported working for our own industries. Segments in our economy are missing. This is one important reason why manufacturing is struggling to develop properly. Businesses cannot enough fertilise and help each other. Under these circumstances there is no wonder why the term "Debt" is very common for most businesses.
I'm a strong believer our economy needs to be restructured. Central planning (not government intervention) involving the private sectors, strongly supported by government is essential.
Building s national "Eco Economic Park" in a strategic favourable location could manufacture widgets/ products needed by all sorts of industries. It could be developed as the centre of "Green Manufacturing" of niche market products and specialist equipment "“ especially supporting green infrastructure demands here in New Zealand. The park could also be used for research, technical developments and engineering schools. Attempt for a "National Light Industrial Park" would open the door for a balanced and prosper economy.
In today's world a small country has to be smart to compete within international markets. The two biggest disadvantages are New Zealand too small and too far away from the rest of the world. My view is that exercising A "Market economy" on its own has it limits. We have to become more self sufficient and start producing a range of rather valuable widgets we need in NZ. We also have to become more aggressive by allocating contracts to foreign companies.
I hope one or two of the reader(s) can translate my thoughts into proper English for a better understanding.
Walter
Walter I understand your sentiments
Walter I understand your sentiments and maybe your rather centralised solution would work, but I'm an exporter of quite high value added stuff (not up in the software league but much higher than agricultural stuff), and I'm not that keen on your solution. I would actually fit your scenario rather well, but lots more wouldn't and we don't know what value is out there just needing an opportunity to grow.
I much prefer the MEA approach which is get pragmatic over what can be done with the exchange rate and don't buy into the "there's nothing we can do mantra" and get on with levelling the investment playing field at home - the one place we can actually control the level.
We don't want subsidy - we just want an even chance. Some short term stimulus like the old suspensory loans we once had from the DFC might not be a bad idea as a stimulus but it would have to be a short term thing and would be no good without the fundamental structural changes in the economic policy settings being corrected. On it's own those type of things and even centralised planning to target specific industry outcomes would all be an expensive waste of public money.
Brian, were do you buy
Brian, were do you buy your supplies for your export products ?
Above idea is not just for exporters, but for our economy as a whole adding value.
Walter
It's cool to cross-link: http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/ind
It's cool to cross-link:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-how-neo...
Les, just stupid. We better
Les, just stupid. We better have a debate on new ideas. What are yours ?
Hi W.Kunz Mostly the raw
Hi W.Kunz
Mostly the raw materials are imported, except for the aluminium that is made here from imported bauxite. The plastics bits are made here from imported raw petroleum based products. We import some components directly.
The value added is huge though in the NZ chain from all the individual suppliers involved in consolidating componentry and organising wholesale purchasing and supply systems. Somewhere around 85% of the value exported is value added here. In the biggest part by $T.O. of our business we supply local companies that export approx 90% of what leaves here. Where we export directly it is over 93% of T.O. in those product lines. So we have a desperate need to have exporting industry survive and we are very aware of what works and what hurts.
We also pay staff wages that are at the high end of what people earn in NZ. I'm not sure what the average wage is but around here it would be around $60K p.a. We would like to be able to pay them more because they are above average performers but income won't allow it. This sort of pay performance is typical in high end exporting.
Sounds like this is the sort of thing NZ needs doesn't it? They only pay us lip service though, believe me.
Walter - the debate is
Walter - the debate is less about new ideas, it's more around how to bring about the implementation of the useful, solid, practical ideas that have been presented - and value add exporters, in NZ, know would work - from their experience. I respect your opinion, but what you continue to propose has not changed mine.
With all due respect, people who want to maintain the status quo will love you for thrashing around creating 'red herring' ideas that prolong debate on the 'what', rather than allowing the 'why not' and 'how' questions to be addressed.
Cheers, Les.
Brian, obviously you are running
Brian, obviously you are running a successful business exporting :
Next to the monetary issue what could (needs) be done from the NZ manufacturing sector to reduce valuable imports ?
Next to the monetary issue, what needs to be done to keep and attract "Brainpower" ?
Walter
Les, next to the monetary
Les, next to the monetary issue, what are your practical ideas to improve the situation for NZ ? Please, what are you answers to my questions above.
Walter
Walter - let's not waste
Walter - let's not waste the creative energy here! Given the dull as ditch water repeal of the R&D tax credit, and myself developing a more convinced understanding of how 'public-credit' could be useful in, and extra to, monetary policy, I think something akin to the DFC 'soft-loans' (essentially public credit) could be useful, if used for support of 'winning behaviours' in a more pluralistic way, than using a 'picked winners' approach, as in times past. So how could we configure a hybrid system that is pluralistic but also includes the anti-rort dynamic of the old DFC 'soft loan' system?
Brian W - any thoughts?
Les , I agree. DFC
Les ,
I agree. DFC style soft loans secured against equity with the ability to fully repay and take equity back at some agreed formula and point in time. Grants require tax money to be transferred into private hands by the state and while it's better than nothing it involves a constant tax burden and that's unsustainable going forward. This if managed well will be every green and that's a must for business sustainability.
Selwyn - yep, no 'red
Selwyn - yep, no 'red herrings', no re-inventing wheels, just cross-linking back to the past, and to something that worked, in NZ, in the experience of value-add exporters. If it had more thinking it'd probably be as workable/functional as tax crediting ACTUALLY IS, in other countries. Funny that. I wonder what makes us so different and special we couldn't get crediting to work?
I wonder if that being "so different and special" means we'll probably never get much to work that will develop the productive sector, re-balance the economy and make NZ a place X&Y and "Brainpower" will want to reside? Not so funny that.
Here's to being "different and special."
Les, I don't have to
Les, I don't have to be involved in this blog. I have a business to run, quite successfully also exporting by the way.
What I find quite embarrassing from your position as a person representing the NZMEA is your attitude toward people representing a different culture by expressing opinions.
Looking into the numbers obviously our economy doesn't work.
Walter
End of my contribution !
Walter - I, and I
Walter - I, and I guess many others appreciate your view-points, opinions and ideas, but I and others don't have to agree with you, any more than you, others have to agree with mine - hence the useful debates we have here. Anyway, "life's too short" for looping the loop:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-how-neo...
And, here's to better experiences - probably the most effective communication method.
Cheers, Les.
I really don't think I
I really don't think I can add much. The imports are not really a problem, no matter what they cost, as long as they go back out again with some value added. Any importing activity that doesn't add value is problematic for NZ while its exports are languishing. It's just the balance that is all wrong, and policy settings that encourage it to stay wrong are really exacerbating things.
It seems to me that this simple fundamental thing and the terrible long term effect if it doesn't get fixed is not really understood. I see the dollar is thrashing about still. What happened to cause that? Did Bill get in front of the Finance Committee today and tell them we're really not going to change anything meanigful and that things are fine like they are really and NZ's doing well? I wonder what he can see from his hill? I can't find what he said and I can't think what else would be drving it up again.
Funny old world isn't it.
Given this thread is about
Given this thread is about ex.rate vol. maybe someone could help answer these questions:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/20/opinion-what-ne...
Given:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/3095456/Dollar-volatility-here...
"There is nothing solid going to come along in the next few years which will reduce NZD volatility. That is why we remain such strong advocates of hedging."
Any selling going on here?
From first link above, "Who benefits?"
Cheers, Les.
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. Small Business owners are
. Small Business owners are largely forgotten. Thats why I only focus on them. I have experience several members of my family file bankruptcy due to small business failures. I also I suffered through 2 destroyed businesses due to failure however, in my failings I have learned some of the secrets to success. (Who can say they know it all?)
What I like about small business owners is that they are not afraid to take huge risks and lay it all on the line. But, I agree they do need a lot of help with their marketing. I think having them go the social media and email route is not only the least expensive but its also the most effective. Thanks for the stats!
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