Now, if we can just get some sensible comparisons of NZ's and other nations housing bubbles. Surely someone, somewhere in the world, is doing the research into the bubbles that have happened everywhere in the first world, and working out the reasons why? The UN? The World Bank? The IMF?

Why did Germany not have a housing bubble? Have any other nations not had one? And why?

Surely this is important? Why do we not want to know?

I reckon I know. But I won't reiterate all the arguments here. Regular readers will know what I think.

The only attempt at an assessment of this issue I have yet seen is contained in Alan Moran's "The Tragedy of Planning"; and I agree 100% with his conclusion. I am eagerly watching out for further and wider research and analysis of that type.

@PhilBest

I did a quickie comparison, I can't load the graph here, but needless to say kiwi housing values have at least another 8% drop to reach there pre-bubble levels. This is adjusting for inflation and adding a standard 3% market trend value.

Troy - a much greater drop than 8% would be required to get to pre-bubble levels!!!!
Remember in real terms house prices increased around 70-80% over 2002-2007. In real terms they have dropped back about 15% from the peak - still a big, big shortfall.
If you factor in a standard 3% market trend factor then over the 5 years of the boom that would bring back real house price growth to say 60%
If we look at history we find that prices drop a long way back following a boom, usually a steep drop at the start followed by a slightly more gentle and longer falling away. But they usually settle 10-20% above values at the start of the bubble. If we assume that prices should settle say 20% above pre-bubble prices, then we've still got a long way to fall - at least 30-40% in real terms, which would equate to around a further 20% drop in nominal terms over the next 2-3 years - consistent with Bernard's predictions.

@ PhilBest
In many countries in Europe houses are regarded as a home, where families live in for many years (10 -30 years) and not purely as goods. Most people don't speculate or invest in property in making money from. It is a different culture.
Sorry, but I cannot see that in English speaking countries.
In German speaking countries the majority is renting anyway.

speaking of something explaining exponential debt, here is a gem;

Question: Subterfuge continues, such as how could officials claim budget surpluses in the late 1990s, and that they paid down debt, when total debt increased to a new record high each and every year?
Answer: the general federal government did not have a surplus in any year in the past 20.For example > During the 4-year period FY 1998-2001 politicians claimed a $557 billion surplus, yet total debt increased $438 billion in that period - - meaning the actual situation was nearly $1 trillion over-stated, which makes such 'hide-the-debt' scandals like Enron look like child's play. The Deficit-Trust Report shows the general government spent more than its general revenues every year, and covered up over-spending deficit by siphoning-off all $ 4.3 trillion cash surpluses incoming to trust funds, including spending every penny remaining in the social security trust fund on non-pension items - - creating even more non-marketable debt IOUs to 'paper-over' their actions - - while claiming they want to 'save social security'. (If a private firm did that to its employee pension fund its officers would go to jail - a law in every state).

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/debt.htm

(UPDATE)

@Matt

I think to help the issue and to speak to objective evidence I believe we need a New Zealand equivalent to the Case-Shiller Index.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices...

Unfortunately my day job and the fact that my leaky building is forcing me to move precludes me develop a kiwi CS index, maybe if Bernard could develop one or perhaps know if S&P does one for NZ.

More info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case-Shiller_index