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Top 10 at 10: Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble; NZ's health timebomb; Dilbert

Posted in News

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and comments below or please email your suggestions for Monday's Top 10 at 10 We embrace those who are different.

Dilbert.com

1. Elephant in the waiting room - I'm late in picking up on this, but it's well worth a link. Brian Fallow wrote an excellent column in yesterday's NZHerald looking at the amazing growth of health spending and what might happen in the future. It's not pretty. Treasury has pointed out some things can be done to improve productivity and cut costs, such as a Pharmac-type buying organisation for medical technology and innovations such as key-hole surgery. But Fallow points out the inevitable issue of rationing and user-pays lurks over the horizon, even with the suggested improvements.

Intuitively they (the improvements) seem likely to provide only a limited or one-off offset to the big, intractable drivers of health costs: demographics, innovation, the dynamics of the labour market and the link between rising incomes and rising demand.

But the Treasury contends that between 2002 and 2008 at least half of the increase in health spending arose from discretionary policy initiatives by the Government.

They may have in mind things like moves to subsidise doctors' visits and raising the income- and asset-testing thresholds for long-term care. "Dealing with future demand pressures will ... require the Government to manage public expectations as to what the publicly funded health system can do for people."

The clear implication is an expectation that people will have to fund more of their own health care. Doesn't that mean rationing access to health care by income?

"Well," says de Raad, "at the moment we ration by waiting lists."

2. Squid food - The mysteriously prolific Tyler Durden (s) at ZeroHedge has a detailed analysis of how Goldman (Vampire Squid) Sachs is now making squillions of dollars trading Credit Default Swaps in the absence of competitors Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. Now we understand why Goldman lobbied so hard within government a year ago to let Bear and Lehman collapse.

One of the more useful information items in Goldman's periodic filings is granular disclosure on the firm's CDS holdings, and specifically segregated data by maturity bucket and by spread as pertains to "maximum payout and notional amount of written credit derivatives."

In essence, due to the firm's monopoly in CDS inventory and, therefore, trading, this is the squid's beating heart: between buying and selling (hopefully offsetting positions) CDS in billions of dollars worth of notional daily, and being able to capitalize on wide spreads, courtesy of the extinction of such traditional competitors as Bear and Lehman, the firm will continue to make hundreds of millions in profits every day, month and quarter, due to its newly found monopolist exposure when it comes to trading CDS, both as principal and as agent.

3. 'Nutrition and traffic subsidy' - Chinese farmers are so hard up they are selling their blood for US$25 a time to make money, ChinaDaily reports. HT Gertraud via email.

More than 6,000 poverty-stricken farmers in Central China's Hubei province are selling their blood on a routine basis to make extra money, with some saying it's the only way they can earn enough money to pay bills. Many have been selling their blood regularly for years to make ends meet.

Presently, nearly 6,400 local farmers sell their blood - 600 cc at a time - every two weeks at the blood plasma collection station authorized by the local health bureau in Yunxian county. The farmers earn 168 yuan ($25) each time.

Nearly 20,000 people have sold their blood at the station since it was established 11 years ago, China Youth Daily reported yesterday. The money earned is considered a "nutrition and traffic subsidy," according to officials.

4. The deflation mystery - One of the curiosities of the last year has been the failure of massive money printing and bailouts to produce inflation. If anything, the global economy is mired in deflation. What gives? Keith Fitzgerald at Money Morning has four reasons why we have deflation rather than hyperinflation. HT Gertraud via email. They are:

  1. Banks are hoarding cash
  2. Consumers are still cutting back
  3. Businesses continue to cut back rather than hire new workers
  4. The US exports inflation to China

If China were to un-peg the yuan and let it rise by the 60% or more it's supposedly undervalued by, we'd see jump in prices here in everything from jeans to tennis shoes, toys, medical equipment, medicines, and anything else we import in bulk from China. Chances are, the shift would not be dollar-for-dollar or even dollar-for-yuan, but there's no doubt it would be significant. Many economists I've talked to privately think 25%-35% is probable. So the next time you hear a "Buy American" extremist, you might want to share this little inconvenient truth.

The upshot?

Any one of these factors could change at any time. And that means investors who are relying on the Fed's version that everything is okay and that the government is managing inflation may be in for a rude awakening.

The only thing the Fed is doing is managing to manipulate is the data, and even then, not very well.

5. Asian property bubble - Kevin Brown from the FT.com in Singapore points out the amazing price rises in Asia's apartment market at the moment. Is this helping to fuel New Zealand's property price rises as cheap US and Asian money (because of the currency pegs) floods around the world. Deja vu is so ugly...

Residential property prices are rising across much of Asia, prompting fears of a real estate bubble. Apartments are selling for staggering prices, and central banks and finance ministries have begun to rein in property-related stimulus measures.

Luxury apartment prices in Hong Kong are now 30 per cent above their low point in the fourth quarter of 2008, with prices up 14 per cent just between the second and third quarter this year in favoured neighbourhoods. Similarly in Singapore, prices for private homes rose 15.8 per cent in the third quarter from the second, the first such rise in more than a year. In China, prices are up 37 per cent year-on-year.

So is Asia in the grip of a bubble or just enjoying a healthy reaction to excessive gloom and doom of the end of last year? No one really knows, but some governments and central banks are taking limited pre-emptive action just in case.

In Singapore, the government has shut down bank lending schemes that allowed buyers to defer mortgage payments on uncompleted developments, and hinted at land sales to increase supply.

6. Squid mine - Goldman Sach's cost of funding on its long term borrowings was 0.92% in the third quarter, the WSJ.com reported.

All banks benefit from the Federal Reserve's zero-interest-rate policy, but Goldman Sachs Group appears to be benefiting more than most.

Provided the Fed sticks to its word on keeping rates low, Goldman stands to juice its profits and bonuses for some time to come.

7. Money, money money - It turns out Goldman Sachs lost money on just one day in the last quarter, FTAlphaville reported. Most days it made more than US$36 100 million a day. It's no wonder with implicit government backing and funding costs of 0.92%. And the wunderkind at Goldman believe they're worth the massive bonuses...

8. The game is rigged?Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has a nice take on this.

OK, I have heard all the explanations, spreads are wider because there are fewer market makers, asset prices are rallying (market making firms are structurally long; it's difficult and costly to go net short on that big a balance sheet), Goldman is currently the trading kingpin.

But I still find these factoids remarkable: Goldman lost money trading only one day last quarter and only two days the prior quarter.

Now maybe I am just hopelessly out of touch, or perhaps more accurately, the Fed has created such a ridiculously favorable environment for banks and traders that if you are moderately competent, making money is like shooting fish in a barrel. But a winning streak this consistent looks like a rigged game. Is this just, ahem, "information advantages"? Greater ease in pushing markets around that have fewer players? Just a function of those monstrously wide bid-asked spreads?

9. Have we learnt anything? - EconopicData has nice chart below on how almost all hedge funds are making money at the moment. Hmmm....could this be a bubble...

My concern now is that it appears we haven't learned anything from the turmoil that happened all of 8-12 months ago. As NourielRoubini recently pointed out, the correlation of all risk assets has approached one as all assets have all moved in one direction... up.

Why? One reason is the world's investors are turning to the US dollar for their carry trade currency of choice (if you haven't read it yet... READ IT). At a high level it goes like this... the dollar's decline is a one way bet. So why wouldn't a foreign investor:

  • Borrow the dollar at a 0% rate
  • Plan to pay the dollar back at some point in the future when it is worth 10-20% less in their local currency
  • Use that money to invest in ANY risk asset (as long as the asset doesn't lose more than the gain on the dollar short, the investor wins... so why not ratchet up the risk?)

The issue is that at some point the dollar will stabilize (or gain in value), increasing the "real" cost of borrowing the dollar.

BUT... if the correlation of assets purchased is near one on the way up, it is sure as hell going to be that high or higher on the way down. And what happens to all these investors that are attempting to leave the same exit door at the same time? Massive re-purchasing of the dollar and massive selling of any risk asset... joy.

10. For absolutely no valid reason - Here is a video of an accordion player murdering music by Pink Floyd and Black Sabbath. HT John Burland...I think

39 Comments

LOL that accordian player is

LOL that accordian player is bonza.

It's quite obvious there is

It's quite obvious there is a great disconnect between the "real" economy and the "REAL" (Finance, Real Estate, Lending) economy. All the central bankers (including RBNZ) have managed to do this past year is to fuel another bubble in the REAL economy while the real economy dies from starvation...either from consumer demand or credit. While the goverments statistical department happily announced that the recovery is underway, workers are getting pink slips......wonder what kind of movie we are watching.

Property is a typical "local" bubble activity as there is where ordinary "suckers" can leverage. NZ is no different. But statstically, RBNZ will show no inflation because house price rise is not a component of the inflation index...so we are now firmly back into the old mode of financial engineering and speculation...except this time the real economy is dying faster than before...wonder when the implosion will set in this time?

Replace Jelly Key with the

Replace Jelly Key with the accordian player . At least we'd get a laugh as the NZ-Debtanic slams into the icebergs of reality .

Bernard : 4 of your

Bernard : 4 of your 9 finance articles ( #10 is the one to watch . Yesterday's goat was brilliant . But the accordianist today : Ripper ) relate to Goldmoney Sacks . Whattaya trying to tell us , big guy ?

hmmm.....windfall tax time for GS?

hmmm.....windfall tax time for GS?

regards

Nuplex Resins are considering closing

Nuplex Resins are considering closing their head office in NZ , and running all of their operations out of Australia . Any point in waking Jelly Key , to let him know ? Maybe he'll think about it , do something , after the 2011 election .

@Kin: Maybe AB can see

@Kin: Maybe AB can see this as well...hence why he isnt keen to raise the OCR yet, he's waiting to see real industry recovery. I agree, until the Govn cleans up there wont be any improvement....ie it has to clean up the financial industry ppl dont trust it and understandably so.

@RT Does head office matter

@RT Does head office matter though?

#1: Don't worry about this

#1: Don't worry about this doomsaying by Farrow, Treasury et al.. Infometrics have assured us, confirmed by their mate T Alexander, that house values are going to go up 24% over the next 3 years. This will provide the extra wealth that people need. They will be able to tap this increased national wealth for their growing health care costs, & their superannuation needs to boot.

Problem solved

<b>steven</b> : Symbolic more than

steven : Symbolic more than economic . Some jobs will be lost to Oz . But it's more the message that we are just an island offshore of Australia . Rather than being a dynamic economy , proud of our place in world commerce .

Thanks Philly, now I gotta

Thanks Philly, now I gotta dig the bomb shelter even deeper. So according to TA et al we can expect the average Rubarb rotter to be priced at oh about $600ooo by 2013, harrrrrrrhahahaha. This turd in a punchbowl economy is so stuffed.

1) yay, atleast someone more

1) yay, atleast someone more respected than me is starting to question this. Why can we not let the elderly die? They are costing a bomb for limited extra life, let alone quality, and imagine what the selfish BB will be like when it is their turn? They will not be dying quietly like the Great Depression-ers ;) Howmany grandparents can be heard saying "oh no need to make a fuss, I will be right" ? I can not see their kids acting the same.

4) Could it be the fact that such a large amount of the worlds wealth [albeit paper] dissappeared in the last 24 months? Inflation is too much money, yet having lost so much the stuff we have printed/created has not yet got back to the original amount in circulation prior to the GFC? If we all burned 10,000 dollars each having recently taken it out from the bank/mortgage surely there would be then less to go around?

I wrote this in my

I wrote this in my blog on 14/10/2008, thanks

Consider this.

Paulson as chief of Goldman Sachs pushed Congress to liberalise rules for Investment Banks so they can take on higher leverage to speculate and make more money betting on worthless loans and paper securities. His firm sold these to other Banks, etc. Then he becomes Treasury Secretay and sees the mess explode the financial markets. He allows Bear Stearns and Merryl Lynch to be taken over by bigger banks, lets Leehman collapse thus killing the opposition and that leaves Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley standing. They turn themselves into Banks. Meanwhile Paulson drums up the Bailout Plan of $700 billion to buy the toxic mortgages and another $250 billion to recapitalise Banks. Guess who benefits, his old firm Goldman Sachs. The Bailout is going to be administered by his ex-aide at Sachs, Neel Kashkari who is now the Bailout Czar. Shows how one of the Villains of the Crisis has morphed into the Hero of the Bailout.

God save USA.

"In Singapore, the government has

"In Singapore, the government has shut down bank lending schemes that allowed buyers to defer mortgage payments on uncompleted developments, and hinted at land sales to increase supply.
"

Again, as with Hong Kong we see the actions of a govt that actually gives a crap about its own people. ARE YOU LISTENING JOHN KEY??????????????

I too have thought about

I too have thought about this exporting inflation to China. The basic idea is that inlfation isn't and won't show up in the US because the velocity of money will stay low (no new lending borrow and or depressed consumption spending). Whereas, in China lending is up and the economy seems to be doing ok. You would think inflation would be showing up about now. But the data shows absolutely no inflation yet, and if much of the lending consists of NPLs and the US lending never picks up then maybe the China will slow and inflation will never materialize.

As for Goldman's profits. Well they are probably extracting monopoly rents. But to the casual observer (who may be correct) it looks as if the playing field isn't level. This is important because the only argument academics will accept against insider trading is that it creates the perception that there isn't a level playing field. It foments distrust of the markets and that is a bad thing.

On a day to day or intraday basis there will be no level playing field, but on a year to year basis there is. Those of us who saw the crash coming had no inside or better knowledge--just better judgment and interpretation of the facts. And those who caught the bounce (which I party missed) also relied on good sense.

The real key data point is that the finance sector had become a much larger portion of US GDP than it ever was (UK too I would guess), and there something unstable about the cogs being too big for the machine.

I forgot to add the

I forgot to add the wonkish bit about inflation also being dependent on peoples expectations of future money supply. Well now everything becomes more murky.

But maybe the economy recovers and as Rogoff suggested the US allows inflation.

And does inflation show up in CPI anyway? Too many uncertainties for me to have conviction right now.

Doesn't that graph on Goldman

Doesn't that graph on Goldman profits show they made more than $100 million a day on 36 days, not more than $36 million a day?

I mean, strictly speaking, what you said would still be right, but I don't think that's what you meant to say.

Interesting about HK and china

Interesting about HK and china property prices.

If my understanding is correct the US are in fact devaluing their dollar (ignore the words, watch the actions). The US is doing this for their own selfish reasons.

We have chosen to accept the fact and let our dollar rise against theirs. The Chinese administration have chosen to fight the US dollar devaluation by attempting to devalue their currency. This can only lead to massive asset inflation in the short term and chaos soon after.

Think back to Japan in the late 1980s - they were the bees knees until they tried a similar trick.

The Chinese administration are suffering delusions of grandeur. The US is far far bigger than they are.

Daniel Miles D'oh. You're quite

Daniel Miles

D'oh. You're quite right. I'll correct. Even more amazing.
cheers
Bernard

Someone somewhere needs to start

Someone somewhere needs to start emphasizing to people that trading does not generate surplus. It is not a productive enterpise and therefore must exist at the expense of those that are productive. For example if GS were transplanted to an island that had no telephones or internet and no one came or went they would all starve. However the island that they were moved from would be no worse off in fact each member of said island would no longer need to share part of their income with GS and real GDP per capita would also rise.

@Simon: Agreed....Ive come to the

@Simon: Agreed....Ive come to the conclusion that a high earner != (does not equal) a productive person doing a productive job....and a low wage earner is a lazy sod...I really dont think GS would be missed, in fact its likely that they do more damage to GDP and ppls lives by far than they are worth, pity Pollies cant see that and act on it, before the voters do so to the Pollies.

If idiots wish to trade

If idiots wish to trade NZ $ 4.5 Trillion ( NZ $ 4,500 Billion according to recent reports ) on just one Aussie exchange in one day on NZ $ futures then good on Goldman Sach's for assisting them with mediation and a little clipping of the ticket.

Where do they think Goldman's US $ 6 Billion NET quarterly income from trading is coming from ?

It's hard to argue these volumes are needed for trade settlements.

A little speculation me thinks !

Simon, Finance is the grease

Simon,

Finance is the grease and cogs that allow for production. As I said above it became too large a portion of GDP. Something was/is unstable about this. But really people do need to be more educated and sophisticated about what the markets do and don't do, otherwise this will happen again.

Accountants, and lawyers too are not productive enterprises in that sense. The very premise that services and risk takers do not contribute GDP is ludicrous.

Doesn't america need inflation to

Doesn't america need inflation to reduce the real size of their debt. Deflation would make it even harder to pay back?

Report out from the RBA

Report out from the RBA today "The central bank is optimistic about Australia's recovery path, saying growth in business investment and exports is expected to be strong, underpinned by an ongoing expansion in the resources sector and a bounce back in Asian economies, particularly China" (the Age).....for Noddyland this means the brightest at school should head for engineering, geology and the like, then scarper off to aus for a good job digging big holes. No point in hanging on here. Say goodbye at the airport to a life of taxes and misery paying off the debts for 40 bloody years. Even Alan knows the young stand a dam sight better chance across the ditch.

@ Jimmy, I live in

@ Jimmy,

I live in Hong Kong. The government doesn't give a bugger about the people unless thy happen to be property developers or business owners.

But Wally we could just

But Wally we could just let you old buggers die a bit earlier than what we currently pay to let you live too? :-?

Paul you youthful sod, I'm

Paul you youthful sod, I'm set to cost you your dreams of a boat and the new car and half a house before I cark it. Rest assured I will be thinking of you as I laze away the days on the beach in Vanuata collecting my pension in full no tax. Send you a post card.

No worries Wally, I brought

No worries Wally, I brought the boat before I got the car, it was my first purchase once I started working and had paid off my student loan, had mates with cars, just none with boats. You can have our car, it has 230k's on it and needs a new cambelt and is a bit of a shitter, you can half the half of the house that the banks owns too, i have no need for that part. I could send you a 2.5 year old and 5 month old if you would like to earn some pocketmoney baby sitting as we both need to go to work. It might help pay for that gammy hip and the little blue pills?

Oh dear oh dear...and their

Oh dear oh dear...and their names are "Penny" and "Thrupence" right Paul...enjoy them while they are young mate. Less work and more play. Move to the West Coast on the Mainland. Get away from the big shitty. Imagine if you had put that boat loot into Apple stock, or Google!

No they are Cassandra and

No they are Cassandra and Madison actually, Scrooge is their Uncle.

My money has been in China and is now in Aussie, the boat was a means to fill my photo album and live life before I get old and they put me to sleep or I end up demented and even more bitter sitting on some beach by myself.

I am quite happy living in my big town of 7000 in the sun. Grew up with black sand and enjoying the white stuff now.

If the FED is telling

If the FED is telling the truth overnight!..yes I know it's a long shot...only a rise in inflation and employment will see it raise the Rate in the USSA( Fed comment). That would mean a repeat of the greenspan bubble mania as the shiploads of cash head for stocks. It signals a market melt up to beat all. The only question left is which sectors as they all scream for attention. Not the best of times for the doom and gloom merchants who have shorted the sector and must buy to cover losses. Attention by the media toward gold gathers pace. India will not be alone in heading to the yellow metal. Hedge funds in the States running scared now the SEC has got off its bum and started to do the job it should have been doing. Maybe building new Federal prisons to house the Wall st crooks will become a growth industry. Obama throwing more loot at housing and unemployment. Gotta pork things along with those elections coming up. That'll mean a bigger budget deficit....increased QE activity and another shipload of cash to be given away. Who gives a stuff...it's other peoples future debts.

White it may be Paul

White it may be Paul but that black stuff has yellow metal in it if you know where to look. Whitebait by the bucket full and wild meat close by. Neat names for the girls Paul.

Wally : When have we

Wally : When have we had rising sharemarkets , at the same time as unemployment chugging up ? Europe has 10 % unemployment , entrenched . They're hot-beds of socialism and political niceties . So you expect stuff-all GDP growth from them . But good old Yankee-doodle Chimerica , home of the free and the slave ; we're cracking on for 26 yrs plus , since this level of unemployment . The flip side is , 89.2 % employment . So , meebee the wagon train is trunding along at 9 m.p.h. instead of the usual 10 . Not so bad after all ?

Roger Thompson, Latest unemployment in

Roger Thompson,

Latest unemployment in the US is 10.2 percent, seems getting more severe.

Yup , my maths !

Yup , my maths ! 89.8 % employment , it should read . Ta , man .

Wally, the white stuff can

Wally, the white stuff can have yellow stuff in it too, but it is best to leave it alone.

I shoot possums for 100 a kg, eat rabbits, and often have fresh snapper for tea. Mussels grow on the rocks, there are pigs throughout the hills and the scollies are on the other side. 30 tomato plants in for the homemade relish and sauce, macadamia, pear and feijoa trees producing like no bodies business even if the avocado is not yet.

Nice and warm and not too much rain. No idea why I would leave to anywhere else in NZ.

Mind you I guess I need to ensure more time is spent worrying about other things, however the response from Tariana to my email about her boy Hone was nice, maybe these politicians are human?

Paradise Paul!...makes you wonder why

Paradise Paul!...makes you wonder why people want to live in Auckland.

I just do not like

I just do not like it when they come and destroy our place for a few weeks every year. Use the place like it is a trash can or party central........ I have never been good at sharing :)

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