Offers for readers

The comment stream

Join the Interest community to be a registered commenter so you can:
- Edit your comments
- Avoid the CAPTCHA
- Vote on comments
Register Here

Already registered? log back in here ..

Forgotten your password? No problem! Click here

Reader poll

Should the RBNZ hold the Official Cash Rate at 3% until December 9 as many economists and the markets are now forecating?

Choices

Top 10 at 10: China iron ore crisis escalates; The amazing Graham Boustred; Roubini's brown manure; Dilbert

Posted in News

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions in the comments below and please send suggestions for tomorrow's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz  I've stopped whining about our coffee cups.

1. The Rio Tinto iron ore contract negotiations scandal is now having some real world concequences. Traders in China report steel mills are scrambling to buy iron ore on spot markets because of Chinese government threats to cancel import licences and because BHP and Rio Tinto appear to have stopped sending spot shipments to China. Spot prices have spiked US$8 a tonne to US$90 this week, FT.com reported.

"Some traders point to congestion at Indian ports for the increase. But most believe the key reason is that Rio and BHP Billiton have stopped putting spot shipments up for bid, with volume falling off since the start of July," the consultancy wrote. It quoted one Shanghai-based trader as saying: "There's almost nothing coming from Australia at the moment."

2. Meanwhile Australian PM Kevin Rudd has intervened to try to settle the situation down and get the Rio Tinto executive released, without success. A Chinese trade delegation left Australia in a hurry yesterday and Rudd revealed he had spoken to a Chinese minister during last week's G8 meeting in Italy, The Australian reported. Rudd is certainly not backing down.

"Australia's national interest always and under every circumstance comes first," Rudd told local radio. "That means the wellbeing of any Australian citizen. They come first."

3. Ever wondered what happened to the people who used to run South Africa? They have retired and are only let out occasionally to say incendiary things. Here's a BusinessDay (South Africa) interview from the gods with former Anglo American deputy chair Graham Boustred, 84. It is littered with appalling gems like the ones below that reinforce stereotypes about older white South African men. HT Kevin

He saves his best bile for current Anglo CEO Cynthia Carroll, who he thinks needs to be replaced in any merger deal with Xstrata...

Xstrata, it's only a mechanism of getting rid of Cynthia Carroll. The only mechanism is if (Xstrata CEO) Mick Davis comes along with his lousy assets and his good management, and takes over the operations.

This woman's hopeless. There's no morale. Do you know why it's difficult to find a female CEO? It's because most women are sexually frustrated. Men are not, because they can fall back on call girls, go to erectile dysfunction clinics. If you have a CEO who's sexually frustrated she can't act properly.

He then goes on to say he wants to migrate to the Isle of Man.

There are no Muslims, no blacks. It's got a good healthcare system. It rains a lot, but so what? I'll get under-floor heating and I'll get a good mackintosh.... I'm going to the Isle of Man, for Christ's sake.

4. Robert Shiller, the co-founder of the Case Shiller house price indices in the United States, reckons there is the possibility of new bubbles forming in some markets, but the market overall could languish for years to come. The interview and the article is on Yahoo's Tech Ticker.

5. Here's a great long term chart showing what's happening with average weekly working hours in US private industry. HT Mark Thoma

6. Is China stockpiling commodities? Cornelius at ZeroHedge thinks so, pointing to various bits of evidence.

"The level of [iron ore] importing doesn't match the level of steel production so far this year, so there's a considerable amount of stockpiling going on," said Tim Huxley, chief executive of Hong Kong-based Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, who along with many others in the shipping industry is grateful for what he called "a shot in the arm" but skeptical that the stockpiling can continue "“ especially since many of those container ships are sent away empty, without export orders to fill them.

7. Peter Schiff talks on CNBC about why he's bearish on American stocks, but likes commodities, gold and China. The CNBC guy introducing Schiff falls over himself to snuggle up to the bulls that run CNBC.  HT Geoff via email.

8. It appears former British Airways and Cathay Pacific CEO Rod Eddington's reign as chairman of ANZ has ended before it began because of his role on the board of finance dogs breakfast Allco, according to Malcolm Maiden in The Age.

The fact that the Australian Securities and Investments Commission has launched an investigation into Allco's demise that extends to related party deals approved by Allco's board in its final year has also pushed (ANZ chairman Charles) Goode and Sir Rod to the conclusion that, while Sir Rod's curriculum vitae and Asian business experience suit ANZ as it expands in Asia, his appointment at this time would be a mistake.

9. Finally the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the Credit Default Swaps market and the links between the market operator and the investment banks that use the market, Bloomberg reported.

"I say Hallelujah that some authoritative body has finally stepped forward to investigate, in a small way, how Wall Street takes advantage of information for its own advantage," said William Cohan, a former JPMorgan Chase & Co. investment banker and author of "House of Cards," about the financial crisis. "The fact that they control Markit and it provides information about the prices of credit-default swaps and they've benefited from this for many years without any challenge or investigation was outrageous."

10. Nouriel Roubini at RGE Monitor has written another epic state of the global economy post titled Mounting Job Losses Will Hurt Consumption, Housing, Banks' Balance Sheets, Public Finances and Lead to Protectionist Pressures. He remains bearish, it's fair to say.

If you include partially employed workers and discouraged workers who left the U.S. labor force, for example, the unemployment rate is already 16.5%; even temporary employment is sharply down. Monetary and fiscal stimulus in most countries has done little to slow down the rate of job losses as economies suffer from  problems of insolvency, not just illiquidity, and as the fiscal stimulus programs are too small and not labor intensive enough. As a result, total labor income "“ the product of jobs times hours worked times average hourly wages "“ has fallen dramatically.

Moreover, many employers, seeking to "share the pain" of the recession and slow down the rate of layoffs, are now asking workers to accept cuts in both hours and hourly wages. Thus, the total effect of the recession on labor income of jobs, hours and wage reductions is much larger.

Thus, even as mounting job losses are undermining labor income and consumption, pushing further down home prices, increasing the banks' losses, weakening the support for free trade, and further worsening public finances, the room for further policy stimulus is becoming narrower. Indeed, not only are governments running out of fiscal bullets as debt surges, but monetary policy is having little short-run traction in economies suffering insolvency "“ not just liquidity "“ problems and monetary easing has so far been like pushing on a string. Worse still, in the medium turn the monetary overhang may lead to significant inflationary risks as a period of sharp deflation may be followed "“ from 2011 on - by a period of rising expected inflation and disorderly weakening of the U.S. dollar.

Little wonder, then, that we are now witnessing a significant correction in equity, credit, and commodities markets. The irrational exuberance that drove a three-month bear-market rally in the spring is now giving way to a more sober realization among investors that the global recession will not be over until year end, that the recovery will be weak and well below trend, and that the risks of a double-dip W-shaped recession are rising. The alleged green shoots turned to be yellow weeds and "“ unless policy makers figure out a sensible medium term exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy "“ they may turn into brown manure.

A couple of little California

A couple of little California gems for everyone's delectation:

IowaHawk on California

A sample:

"..deep inside California is also a child -- full of innocent wonder, and the belief that any budget wish can come true as long as you just wish hard enough."

Gosh, he's been channelling Phil Wossname, eh?

And a sterner piece from the ever-reliable Megan McArdle in the Atlantic on the way (not) to fund new entitlements, by hitting up the Rich Pricks...

"There's a reason that most countries do not attempt to fund large welfare states with a very progressive income tax, the way we do*. The income of the wealthy is fungible, mobile, and volatile. These are not strengths from the vantage of the tax system. Paying for a huge new entitlement which will, at best, grow steadily during downturns, should not be done with a tax that will plummet the way progressive income tax revenues seem to during a depression. See: California, State of."

Fungible, mobile, and volatile...

Waymad That California thing is

Waymad
That California thing is hilarious
"The self-proclaimed 'King of Pop Culture' died last week at 160, in what coroners ruled an accidental case of financial autoerotic asphyxiation"
Well worth a click if you're all in need of a laugh.
cheers
Bernard

Kevin Rudd says :“Australia’s national

Kevin Rudd says :"Australia's national interest always and under every circumstance comes first," Wonder what the reaction would be if spoken by Hu Jintao if the country mentioned is China instead??

"The Chinese is learning something about the Capitalist syatem" Australian gloated when the Rio Tinto deal exploded in Chinalco face. Now the Chinese are saying " The Australians are learning something about the Communist system" Wonder who has the last laugh?? China has been stockpiling commodities for the past 6 months,(almost every market analysist agree on this) think they are desperate? Guess who's holding the stick now ??

Hey Bernard, A little conflict?

Hey Bernard,

A little conflict? in point 1 we learn that China's imports of Iron Ore from australia have dried up to a trickle and in point 6. iron ore is being stockpiled. Is one out of date, have china found a new source or Iron ore? What's going on?

Neil.

What's up with site? Still

What's up with site? Still stuck on Tuesday????
Check this out: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0907/S00161.htm
Me thinks Beijing will go all out to replace the US$ with gold and stop buying the US toilet paper.

Wally, Technical problem? Some people

Wally,

Technical problem?
Some people say our comment edit function is playing up.
You seeing other problems?
cheers
Bernard

Neil Good point. I think

Neil
Good point. I think Tim Huxley was referring to stockpiling up until the last week or so. They may also not be mutually exclusive. If the Steel works fear some Government ban on imports they would stockpile madly and be desperate to buy on the spot market.

cheers
Bernard

Bernard,other problems? No, but if

Bernard,other problems? No, but if there's a chance of giving us Thursday's financial news today, it would help quite a bit!

Bernard: "Technical problem? Some people

Bernard: "Technical problem? Some people say our comment edit function is playing up."

Just a few problems, coming up with some strange messages.... 2&^%$&*(((*&&^^%$%$ ((*&&& China wants to be part of a fair and equal world trade culture (*^%$^&**(^%@#$$ Tony Alexander has reported NZ housing on the cusp of a meltdown. ))*%$*(&** Australian banks are operating in NZ purely for the welfare of New Zealand citizens and businesses (()^(&(%^&& Elvis is alive and living in Taihape @$^^&&

Drat, sorry, transmission is breaking up..........

A bit alarming re Roubini.

A bit alarming re Roubini. I mean, I know he's always alarming in his role as the alpha bear. But from observation he has always pooh poohed the risk of inflation, saying that all the recessionary fall in demand etc will keep inflation at bay. But this time he is saying beware the risk of "sharp inflation" from 2011.

Roubini has been uncannily accurate during all his analysis and forecasting leading up to & during the financial meltdown, so I treat that as a real heads-up. Now where's that gold I stashed away?.........

Wally Working hard on that.

Wally
Working hard on that. I'm having to reset my crystal ball. It's a Microsoft crystal ball and I keep having to alt ctrl delete it back to life.

Philly
I'd like to see Elvis throwing a gumboot...
cheers
Bernard

CNBC video is "not available

CNBC video is "not available at this time"... wonder why. Peter Schiff telling everyone that has US$ denominated assets to get out and into 'euro-pacific' region and associated commodities. Big brother doesnt like trouble makers. Schiff's bid for senate along with Ron Pauls bill to 'Audit the Fed' is shaking up not just a few feathers but the whole chicken coupe! (from what friends on the ground in the states tell me)

On a side note, one of JFK's main policy platforms was that of Fed transparency...

"On a side note, one

"On a side note, one of JFK's main policy platforms was that of Fed transparency"¦"

Not to mention a silver backed currency... Hardly related to Dalas though???

Neil It is reported from

Neil
It is reported from China News Agency that Asia's biggest iron ore storage, with reserves of more than 3 billion metric tons, has been found in China's northeastern province of Liaoning, citing the local government.

The Dataigou deposit, located near Benxi city, has both magnetite and hematite material with iron content of between 25 per cent and 62 per cent, the report said. Benxi government officials were not immediately available for comment.

The discovery may reduce China's dependence on imports from Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. China, the biggest buyer of iron ore, has rejected a 33 per cent price cut accord offered by Rio this year and called for prices to drop as much as 45 per cent because of losses by its steelmakers.

Martin - Speculation is my

Martin - Speculation is my birth right as a NZer, who said it has to be confined to RE?

Post new comment

The information entered here will appear with your comment.