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Top 10 at 10: Our crazy currency; Madoff's prison 'consultant'; Steve Keen's charts; Chinese bubble; Dilbert

Posted in News

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am. I welcome your additions and comments below. If you have any links you think are must reads for tomorrow's Top 10 at 10 please email them to me at bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz  I don't think I'll ever have to resort to cannibalism. Dilbert.com 1. Brian Gaynor at NZHerald.co.nz has out some interesting details about New Zealand's foreign exchange market and argues that someone has to do something about making it less volatile to protect small exporters. He points out that more New Zealand dollars trade every day than Russian roubles, Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee. Our daily turnover to GDP ratio is 43%. Astonishing. Gaynor says its a problem that needs discussion but doesn't have an immediate solution.

Currency controls are not an option for New Zealand because it would be impossible for our Government to set the right exchange rate level and then support this against potential attack from US and European hedge funds. However, the collapse of Line 7, and the difficulties faced by the dairy sector, shows that the NZ dollar market offers great potential for international speculators while hindering the country's exporters. Clearly, there should be far more high level discussion on the state of the NZ dollar market and any measures we can introduce to reduce its volatile and speculative characteristics while assisting our export sector.

2. Brent Sheather, a stock broker and financial adviser, talks in NZHerald.co.nz about the new rules coming in for financial advisers and suggests the only real solution to the problem of advisers recommending bad investments is to get rid of commissions and just pay fees for advice.

Financial advisers can either be paid by way of commission from the product provider or by way of a fee directly from the client. Bond -based products typically pay lower rates of commission than equity-based products and the safest investments, like government bonds, pay no commission whatsoever. Similarly, exchange-traded index funds which have the lowest management fees in the industry don't pay any commission or trailing fee. No surprises, then, that commission-based advisers don't generally recommend government bonds or ETFs. In contrast, the fee-based model, in which an adviser charges the client a set percentage of the funds to be invested, is potentially more attractive to investors, providing the percentage charged is the same for all products sold. Under the fee-based model a financial planner will be disinterested as to whether he or she sells bonds, property or shares and is thus able to focus on what is good for the client, rather than what maximises income. The removal of commission and trailing fee payments by product providers would change the investment advisory landscape in an instant and do more "to promote the sound and efficient delivery of financial advice and to encourage public confidence in the professionalism and integrity of financial advisers" than any legislation ever could.

3. Here's a sign of the times. China has joined a growing movement of countries protesting over a clause in the recent American cap and trade carbon legislation which imposes a tax on imports from nations without carbon emissions caps, FT.com reported. This little bombshell in the legislation is threatening to spark a global trade war. Trust American politicians to find a way to restrict trade. To be fair the bill still has to pass the senate and Obama is not keen, but his protestations don't sound that strong.

After the passage of the House bill by a narrow vote last week, President Barack Obama warned imposing carbon border taxes might send a protectionist signal. "I think there may be other ways of doing it than with a tariff approach," he said. The bill now moves to the Senate, where it is likely to receive an even rougher ride from moderate Democrats concerned about imposing more costs on US businesses.

4. This could only happen in America. Bernie Madoff has hired a 'prison consultant' to help him avoid being incarcerated in the nastiest prison, TimesOnline reported. It seems there is an industry of these consultants.

A sentence above 30 years usually places an inmate in a high-security category, meaning that Madoff would be assigned to a prison housing violent offenders including murderers and rapists. Ed Bales, of Federal Prison Consultants, which is not involved in the case, said that Madoff was likely to be held in isolation, known as "the hole", at least at first. "He could cause a lot of problems because it's a very high-profile case. People may react very badly to him," Mr Bales said. "He is going to have white supremacists who do not like the Jewish population. He has got some enemies he is going to have to face." It is even possible that Madoff could be upgraded for his own safety to the only Supermax facility, where inmates are locked up for 23 hours a day and never get to mix with the general prison population. John Webster, of National Prison and Sentencing Consultants, said: "Next to being a sex offender, people who are perceived as stealing from the elderly are not perceived as very popular folk in prison. Everyone has a mother. I think there is going to be some form of retaliation."

5. Ambrose Evans Pritchard at The Telegraph reckons civil unrest can't be ruled out as unemployment jumps sharply in developed economies and wage deflation sets in.

The Centre for Labour Market Studies (CLMS) in Boston says US unemployment is now 18.2pc, counting the old-fashioned way. The reason why this does not "feel" like the 1930s is that we tend to compress the chronology of the Depression. It takes time for people to deplete their savings and sink into destitution. Perhaps our greater cushion of wealth today will prevent anotherGrapes of Wrath, but 20m US homeowners are already in negative equity (zillow.com data). Evictions are running at a terrifying pace. Some 342,000 homes were foreclosed in April, pushing a small army of children into a network of charity shelters. This compares to 273,000 homes lost in the entire year of 1932. Sheriffs in Michigan and Illinois are quietly refusing to toss families on to the streets, like the non-compliance of Catholic police in the Slump. We are moving into Phase II of the Great Unwinding. It may be time to put away our texts of Keynes, Friedman, and Fisher, so useful for Phase 1, and start studying what happened to society when global unemployment went haywire in 1932.

6. This is an exceptionally cool way to chart bank assets, market capitalisations and capital over time. HT Felix Salmon. This a must click to the Council of Foreign Relations. Fantastic charts. Felix points out the European banks are particularly worrisome.

Check out where that financial-failures chart ends: with five European banks all having assets of more than $2.5 trillion, and none of them looking particularly well capitalized. No US bank is that dangerous, partly because no US bank is that big "” and US banks are dangerous enough. All five of those European banks are too big to rescue, and none of them is particularly well regulated. How do we fix this problem? I have no idea. But I do know that it's a huge problem, and that no one is even beginning to address it.

7. William Buiter explains in this video at The Telegraph why the banks will need more cash.

8. Australian economist Steve Keen, who is famous for arguing Australian house prices will collapse, has a monster post over at DebtDeflation with a bunch of cracker charts, including the one below showing the link between debt deleveraging and unemployment. It's long but well worth a read.

The reason that most economists continue to underestimate this downturn is because (a) the downturn is being driven by deleveraging from literally unprecedented levels of private debt, and (b) the neoclassical theory of economics, which dominates academic and market economics alike, ignores the role of private debt in the economy. The reason that I anticipated this crisis four years ago is that I reject the mainstream "neoclassical" approach to economics, and instead analyse the economy from the perspective of Hyman Minsky's "Financial Instability Hypothesis", in which private debt plays a crucial role. In our credit-driven economy, demand is the sum of GDP plus the change in debt. If debt is low relative to GDP, then its contribution to demand is relatively unimportant; but if debt becomes large relative to demand, then changes in debt can become THE determinant of aggregate demand, and hence of unemployment. That is manifestly the case in America today. Under the stewardship of neoclassical economics in the personas of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, the growth in private debt has not merely been ignored but has actively been encouraged, in the dangerously naive belief that the private sector is being "rational" when it borrows.

9. Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management and is one of the few English-writing economists on the ground in China who knows whats really going down behind The Great Firewall. Here he writes that "China's Loan growth isn't boosting my confidence in China's Green Shoots"

Credible rumors suggest that new loans in June will hit RMB 1.2 trillion or more, as banks rush to inflate their quarterly loan numbers, just as they did in March, on the assumption that any cap in quarterly loan growth will be based on the previous quarter's numbers. I would argue that new lending in 2009, running at 2 to 3 times the new lending over the same period in 2008, is not at all normal and is very unlikely to be healthy.

These are amazing numbers. The People's Daily article indicates, I think, the schizophrenic attitudes prevalent in China today, with growing nervousness in some circles about the consequences of this explosion in lending riding side by side with a determination to keep it up.

We are going to get 8% growth this year come what may. Since late last year I have been writing about how this everything-but-the-kitchen-sink strategy of throwing everything possible into countering the effect of the global contraction on the Chinese economy might result in higher growth this year and next but will make China's necessary transition even more difficult and will almost certainly result in much slower growth over the longer term.

I am more certain than ever that this is the correct analysis. The biggest damage is likely to be in the banking sector, which will then create problems in the fiscal accounts.

Wages in America are falling, Paul Krugman points out with this chart below. Maybe a debt deflation spiral will be the problem, rather than an inflation explosion. 10. Ever thought your bank has you by the short and curlies? Or maybe they even have your soul? Reuters reports a Latvian banker is now asking borrowers to pledge their soul as collateral.

Such a deal is being offered by the Kontora loan company, whose public face is Viktor Mirosiichenko, 34. Clients have to sign a contract, with the words "Agreement" in bold letters at the top. The client agrees to the collateral, "that is, my immortal soul." Mirosiichenko said his company would not employ debt collectors to get its money back if people refused to repay, and promised no physical violence. Signatories only have to give their first name and do not show any documents. "If they don't give it back, what can you do? They won't have a soul, that's all," he told Reuters in a basement office, with one desk, a computer and three chairs.

10. (bonus!) Here's how the other people live. Hedge fund managers' wives are struggling in New York, Tatiana Boncompagni at TimesOnline reports from personal experience. There's not a lot of sympathy in evidence.

Here in New York there is a quiet revolution taking place. The once-almighty hedge funders are finally getting their comeuppance and almost everyone is happy to have a bird's-eye view of their long (and, thus, quite entertaining) fall from grace. From my perch, it is easy to understand why. While I associate with the super-rich, their wealth is on another plane. They have retinues of staff. I am privileged compared with most but I pick up Cheerios from my own floor, make the beds and cook all the meals. How many of us non-hedgie types have not felt a pang of jealousy on hearing about a friend's posh holiday or new penthouse apartment, or the renovation of their multimillion-dollar home? And, try as we might, it's hard to feel sorry for the women who have to make do with one of Jimmy Choo's faux-skin handbags because they can no longer afford the real thing. Much as I hate to generalise, I'd still venture to say that if hedgie wives had been more discreet, had chosen not to flaunt their wealth through obscenely lavish birthday parties for their kids and spouses, and hadn't gone on about their latest handbag, we might feel a bit differently now. But, alas, there is no return policy for a decade of conspicuous consumption.

10 (Another bonus!) The good economist folks over at VoxEu look at the 30% fall in global trade in the first quarter of 2009. The chart referred to below is a tad worrying.

"...trade has fallen fast and furiously since the onset of the financial crisis in the fall. Figure 2 compares trade growth (month over same month the previous year) in this crisis and in the previous downturns, using monthly data in constant US dollars for a balanced sample of 31 countries that report data from 1960 through March 2009. While growth leading up to the crisis was a bit higher in this episode, it still looked quite similar to the previous downturns. What is most evident from the picture is that the trade drop over the last few months has been much steeper and more severe than other recent episodes. This likely reflects the magnitude of this downturn and the increased responsiveness of trade to income in recent years."

Land Taxes.... A little high

Land Taxes.... A little high in some areas perhaps

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/business/economy/05appeals.html?_r=1&hp

The call for counties to acknowledge the falling price of homes is loudest in states where taxes are highest, or the housing crisis has hit the hardest.

"We've been absolutely getting killed," said Robert W. Singer, the mayor of Lakewood Township, N.J., and a state senator, whose town is setting aside $2 million to pay tax refunds to homeowners. "We've never had this before. Usually they're undervalued. Now, everyone's overvalued."

The appeals are not just coming from individual homeowners. Condominium associations and entire subdivisions are pushing for new tax assessments, as are companies that own office towers, industrial parks and shopping malls.

New Jersey, which has the nation's highest property taxes, has been besieged by tax appeals from homeowners like Peggy Tombro, whose rambling home in Bound Brook is assessed at a value of $1.8 million but is languishing on the market with an asking price of $1.3 million. Her taxes are increasing to $53,000 a year.

"I don't know what else to do," said Ms. Tombro, 63, who has gone back to work selling antiques to pay her tax bill.

From the AEP Telegraph article,

From the AEP Telegraph article, no world leader matches Sarkozy in being prepared to tell it like it is. This quote from him says it all;

"We must overhaul everything. We cannot have a system of rentiers and social dumping under globalisation. Either we have justice or we will have violence. It is a chimera to think that this crisis is just a footnote and that we can carry on as before."

A sobering atricle by Steve

A sobering atricle by Steve Keen (No.8).
I worked hard enough over many years to be able to spend, now... and I'm not.....

You won't have to resort

You won't have to resort to cannibalism, Bernard, there'll be enough humble pie going around to keep us all replete.

Bernard - Steve Keen is

Bernard - Steve Keen is one of the best economic commentators on the web. He is one of a few commentators who can simply and clearly expalin why all the mainstream economists currently employed by Govt Treasury Depts, Central Banks and Main Street banks do not understand the real cause of the GFC i.e. debt. Bear in mind that Steve Keen predicted the GFC as early as 2006 when he saw that the main driver of economic growth was the huge increase in debt. Also it is worth noting SK believes that because the amount of debt is so large then the only real soloution to the GFC will be the writing off of this debt. How will that affect the banks and savers?

Hi Bernard, thanks for mention

Hi Bernard, thanks for mention professor Steve Keen. I'm his fan for a long time, he is simply brilliant.
Do you know this? List of collapsed banks in US.
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2009/index.html
Cheers
Eva

Interesting article by Gaynor... the

Interesting article by Gaynor... the facts were well researched. however when he had to give answers he had to fall back on his old methods - "lets have a high level meeting..." I'll bet that will help..

My evaluation of his other

My evaluation of his other writings, Shuttle, is that 'the banks' WILL write of their debts, but over a VERY long time ( ie: against any future earnings etc). Hence my impression of his view is that a deflationary future of some conciderable length is upon us ALL. Keep saving- even at 0%, and sell of what you don't need ( Trademe's going to do well!) ! It's going to buy so much more....

Janet - "Keep saving- even

Janet - "Keep saving- even at 0%, and sell of what you don't need ( Trademe's going to do well!) ! It's going to buy so much more"¦." - so true!

Best advice I've seen so far.

The zero hedge article aboot

The zero hedge article aboot the kerfuffle over at GS is possibly a peek through a temporary crack in the dam.

Essentially, an employee is alleged to have downloaded GS Automated Trading Platform source code (trades in micro-seconds, low latency, high profits, wide catchment of data, largest GS profit centre, cute algorithms, did I mention massive profits?).

And (coincidence?) the NYSE went all funny last Friday night, and GS has suddenly disappeared from the top x trader data views.

Link (you should be all over this anyway, being a paid-up ZH fan)

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/is-case-of-quant-trading-industria...

Having read that, Waymad, (

Having read that, Waymad, ( duh...!) Is it any wonder Jerome Kerviel got away, or not, with whatever- it-was he did? GS = SG ?

Waymad Yes saw that. A

Waymad
Yes saw that. A curious story. It came out after I'd finished this. Many thanks for popping it in.
I'm no expert on micro second algorithim-driven trading strategies, but something smells fishy alright. More to come on this I think.
I'm a non-paid up fan of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden never seems to sleep.
cheers
Bernard

Bernard, that's because he's up

Bernard, that's because he's up all night making "soap" (re Fight Club).

That GS story is very interesting, as is the entire quant world, which actually overlaps with Brian Gaynor's piece on the NZD. Our dollar is used as a speculative/hedging instrument for funds taking positions in other seemingly unrelated markets. Observe for example the correlation between NZDJPY and the S&P500. In 2008, they were practically the same trade.

A lot of people don't realise that a fund may take a position in our dollar with no view whatsoever about the fundamentals of the NZ economy, but purely for the covariance of the NZD with their other positions. But in the last year especially, because everything is so closely correlated, you've got this almost binary environment - risk on, risk off. And the switch from one to the other can be very violent. But it all appears to be taking place in the context of deleveraging. It's just the violent swings are very confusing to people trying to interpret and derive relationships between news events and market behaviour.

It's not been an easy time even for the quant funds as this recent story from Bloomberg indicates:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEOvYT4LTxJI

This has to be the "money" quote:

"Unfortunately, there's lack of consistence of what's happening. I am wondering how stupid the market can be for how long."

Re. currency, aside from those

Re. currency, aside from those mentioned in the article, what kind of impacts might this kind of thing have?

http://www.infowars.com/bankster-holiday-planned-for-september/print/#co...

Am curious, so other comments welcome please. Thanks in advance.

Cheers, Les.

The issue I see, Bernard,

The issue I see, Bernard, is that these types of automation allow almost instantaneous pump-and-dump etc strategies. And if they execute in microseconds, and you happen to own the fastest executor of trades on a given exchange, then you are happily placed to take advantage of everyone else's slower cycle times.

Bottom line: he who has the fastest reflexes, wins.

But for the rest of us, onlookers running at mere TradeMe speeds, can only conclude that, in Tom Wait's line from 'Sins of the Father':

"Smack dab in the middle of a dirty lie
The star spangled glitter of his one good eye
Everybody knows that the game was rigged
Justice wears suspenders and a powdered wig"

So don't a'go looking for any of this in the MSM.....and do recall that BHO's inner circle is heavily stacked with GS revolving door specimens (Hope and Change!).

And it goes without saying that none of this has any necessary relation to the objects of the trades - currencies, companies, instruments or commodities.

No wonder everyone else on the planet just bobs around in the wake of stuff like this. And plots revenge....

Waymad Yep. Hardly a free

Waymad

Yep. Hardly a free market and a level playing field.

I'd quite like to unload "16 shells from a 30 ought 6" into that lot.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VDTa7uXUp4

That's my favourite Tom Waits song

cheers
Bernard

Now if there was a

Now if there was a transaction tax component...a bit of friction in the system, time lag.

Ears on, Neville? Heard you were lookin' for a wider tax base....

Waymad, it is definitely about

Waymad, it is definitely about tech infrastructure in the ultra high frequency game.

Check out the specs of Rentech, one of the major players:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/Si3uq7Uj3qI/AAAAAAAADKc/rXu0gGztVe...

However, I think we need to be careful that we don't fall into the trap of being afraid of what we don't understand. These funds make thousands of trades a day that might last minutes, seconds, or less, and would often try to end the day with little or no overnight risk. I think on any given day, depending on whether trend following or contrarian type strategies are winning, the effect of these funds is to either exaggerate or dampen volatility. However, over the long run they can't manipulate the market away from fundamental realities - even though they may try (if you believe the "plunge protection team" conspiracy theories).

I think it is still the case, that no one, not even Goldman, is bigger than the market.

Although I do think there is a case to be made to keep trading and investment banking separate. There are supposed to be "chinese walls" but I think that's probably a bit of a joke. Firms like Goldman, UBS etc should have to decide, do they want to be IBanks or Hedge Funds, but they can't be both. A new Glass-Steagall is needed

DC- <i>"A lot of people

DC- "A lot of people don't realise that a fund may take a position in our dollar with no view whatsoever about the fundamentals of the NZ economy, but purely for the covariance of the NZD with their other positions."

The great irony for me being that automated trading systems and a general belief among traders is what actually creates the covariance (ie, its arguably divorced from fundamentals, eg the current account deficit).

Looking for solutions to combat

Looking for solutions to combat velocity of speculative foreign exchange upon our exporters/importers. By velocity of money, I mean in the context of the speed at which money can enter and leave a nation. During the Asian Credit Crisis, Malaysia instead of taking the advice of the IMF and opening their borders to direct foreign investment without out any constraints on the time foreign investors must remain invested in the nation, they took the advise of ex World Bank Cheif Economist Joseph Stiglitz and Economist Krugman and imposed a minimum period of time before which profits realised in the home currency could be converted/sold back into any other currency. Explained thus;

These increasingly apparent problems and risks to capital account liberalization have led many economists and policy-makers to conclude that in truth, the costs of excessive capital account liberalization far outweigh the benefits that it brings. To insulate an economy from these threats, they have also argued for the reimposition of government control over short-term, cross-border capital flows. Professor Bello, in the above cited article, argues precisely for such controls, and so have many leading economic thinkers like Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz, Harvard Professor Dani Rodrik, and University of Cambridge Professor Ajit Singh, to name just a few. Indeed, even staunch advocates of swift and comprehensive capital account liberalization like the economists at the IMF have in recent years admitted to the perils of such, and in fact have even hinted at the need for some degree of prudential regulation for capital flows...................In particular, capital controls are those measures which seek to manage the volume, composition, and or allocation of international private capital flows. Such controls may be in the form of price-based measures, a la the Keynes tax, or a tax o­n securities transactions, or a Tobin tax, a tax o­n currency exchange transactions. They may also be quantitative in nature, such as limits o­n short-term sales of securities abroad, or the Chinese restriction o­n the types of securities that may be owned by non-residents.........
Nevertheless, it must be noted that not a few countries have successfully been able to design and implement techniques that successfully altered and modified the risks that their economies faced. Chile, for example, imposed a o­ne-year minimum residence requirement for all foreign direct and portfolio investments, while at the same time instituting an 30% unremunerated reserve requirement for all foreign currency liabilities. These controls along with several other regulatory mechanisms served to improve the composition and maturity of capital inflows to the Chilean economy, stabilized the currency, and reduced the risk of contagion, especially in light of the crises-ridden Mexican economy. Other examples may be found by looking at Colombia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Singapore.

Here is three of the best straight forward articles I have picked out of the numerous I have perused;

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2001/el2001-25.html

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/03/11/crowd_control...

http://www.focusweb.org/philippines/content/view/34/2/

Iain - can you please

Iain - can you please elaborate?

Les - If this bank

Les - If this bank holiday takes place, they easily have sufficient control of the international network to do it, it will be to prevent people from taking advantages positions pre-empting what is about to happen. If what is about to happen is the announcement of a new IMF reserve currency you can prepare to be rogered even more than present, if it is to announce massive debt relief, as it should be, we can rejoice. Sadly, following past trends, I suspect it want be the latter.

Les - Did you look

Les - Did you look at that infowars site? Tabloid conspiracy theories abound. It even has a bunch of JFK conspiracy articles.

No mention of the Number 11 bus they found on the moon however.

Iain - thanks. Trev -

Iain - thanks. Trev - thanks. My Uncle Bill was on that bus, whad'ya mean...

Without balanced regulation the market

Without balanced regulation the market is ineffective.

Although Gaynor doesn't seem to have the answers, he's totally correct about something needing to be done.

Excessive speculation is widespread and out of control. It's distorting market fundamentals thus creating a market-pricing mismatch.

"How do you explain the fact that in the first half of 2009 crude oil prices rose some 70% and copper was up over 50% when the world is mired in the worst recession in decades? It's not like Americans are driving more and manufacturers everywhere are running assembly lines flat out "” quite the opposite. Demand for the basic materials that fuel and feed production and consumption remains depressed."

Are Chinese Speculators Driving Commodities Prices Higher?
http://www.visitchn.com/2009/07/are-chinese-speculators-driving-commodit...

Excessive speculation found in wheat: U.S. Senate:

"It is another case of speculative money overwhelming a market, and federal regulators failing to take the steps needed to protect the market," said Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Permanent
http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-40558120090624?sp=true

60 Minutes: Speculation Affected Oil Price Swings More Than Supply And Demand:

"If anyone had any doubts, they were dispelled a few days after that hearing when the price of oil jumped $25 in a single day. That day was Sept. 22.

"Michael Greenberger, a former director of trading for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission , the federal agency that oversees oil futures, says there were no supply disruptions that could have justified such a big increase."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/01/08/60minutes/main4707770.shtml?ta...

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