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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; many mortgage rate changes, job confidence falls, bigger trade surplus, high interest-only lending, swaps and NZD both hold their ground

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; many mortgage rate changes, job confidence falls, bigger trade surplus, high interest-only lending, swaps and NZD both hold their ground

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Sovereign announced that they are raising their floating mortgage rate by +10 bps to 5.75, effective July 7. SBS Bank cut its 6 month fixed rate to 4.50% and raised its 1 year rate from 4.10% to 4.25%. And Kiwibank reduced its 1 year fixed rate to 4.19% which, along with HSBC, is now the lowest fixed mortgage rate in the market. They increased their 2 year rate to 4.29% at the same time.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut -25 bps off its one month term deposit rate, which takes it down to 0.50% and matching its main rivals.

ABOUT FACE
Employment confidence fell in the June quarter, reversing gains made earlier in the year. Workers perceptions of their own job security have deteriorated particularly sharply, driving a decline in Employment Expectations component of the Westpac's Index. Confidence fell in most regions this quarter with the biggest declines in Gisborne and the Hawke's Bay.

BETTER THAN EXPECTED XVIII
The good hard data keeps coming. NZ posted a larger than expected trade surplus in May as the strength in other exports continues to offset dairy export weakness. All up, NZ’s diverse export mix paints a resilient export picture.

NEW INTEREST-ONLY LENDING DATA
New data out today shows that $3 bln of lending in May was interest-only (which includes revolving credit arrangements). That makes it a concerning 41% of all lending. This type of lending has been about 40% since data has been collected by the regulator starting in January. The same data shows 50% of that interest-only was for investors, the same amount for owners-occupiers.

OUTSIZED RISKS
Banks made lending commitments in May of $7.3 bln and more than a quarter of these were to Auckland "investors". Another 29% were to other Auckland buyers. So all up, bank lending to the rest of the country (including investors) was only 46% of all lending. The skew to Auckland is now at dangerous levels.

WHAT - ME WORRY?
Equity markets are almost all in positive territory today. The NZX50 is up almost +0.5% as is the ASX200. The Singapore market is up a similar amount, Shanghai is up almost +1% and Tokyo is up +1.4% today. Only Hong Kong has not come to the recovery party. But the bears are still out: gold is up another +$10/oz in Asian trading, now at US$1,326/oz.

AUCKLAND COUNCIL FIRST LOCAL BREXIT VICTIM
Auckland Council today decided to defer its planned retail bond issue announced last week given the uncertain market conditions following the United Kingdom’s referendum on European Union membership.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Local swap rates started the day up +1 bps but as the day has progressed they are now down -1 bps across the board. The sharp falls we saw on Friday have held. NZ swap rates are here. The 90-day bank bill rate is down -1 bp, now at 2.34%.

NZ DOLLAR LITTLE CHANGED
Despite all the international turmoil, none of it has rubbed off on the Kiwi dollar yet. The NZD is still at levels it was at this time on Friday, at 70.5 USc, at 95.3 AUc, and 64.1 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now just over 74.3. Check our real-time charts here.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

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Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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9 Comments

In your comments on rate changes (and on your interest rate tables) you forgot to mention that Kiwibank increased the 2 year special rate from 4.15% to 4.29%

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We do have it on our mortgage rate page, but you are right; I should have also noted it in the story above. Thanks for the prod.

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Actually, NZD is down against JPY from 72.94 to 71.82. Among some people, watching carry trade currencies against yen is a barometer of risk off.

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BNZ cut -25 bps off its one month term deposit rate, which takes it down to 0.50% and matching its main rivals.

Can somebody justify this unsecured rate given the OCR is set at 2.25%?

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Yes, not sure what this indicates in their policy.

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A rising NZ jobless rate as labour force rate also increases.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/unemployment-rate

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Stephen, how would the banking Ombudsmen justify it? I'm tempted to ask.

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The pertinent point being that the most significant segment of bank funding falls in the less than one month space. View RBNZ table

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So. The Ak council couldn't get its debt away! OMG!
Is this a portent of things to come? Especially once the rail tunnel debt has been incurred!
There was a news item where it was stated that heavy rail to the airport is deemed not economical.
And 3 Councillors are asking the Council to release tunnel costings.
Additionally JK says that the current estimate will almost certainly be below the final cost.

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