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Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Cash call for Hubbard's professional investors; Ratings agency chaos; Ponzi scheming Chinese loan sharks; Dilbert

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am brought to you in association with New Zealand Mint for your bruncheon reading pleasure.
I'm in Wellington today for this conference on Retirement Policy and Intergenerational Equity. Will be reporting on it through the day.
I welcome your additions and comments below, or please send suggestions for Friday's Top 10 at 10 via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz
1. Habitual investors? - The Hubbard Support Fund trust has now been set up and is now asking for funds, the Timaru Herald's Emma Bailey reports.
The trust was launched yesterday and Fairlie sheep farmer David Williams is a director. Mr Williams, who farms the shores of Lake Opuha, was also an indirect benefactor of Mr Hubbard, who financially backed the dam, enabling its completion.
"The trust is for [investors in the affected companies] who are financially struggling because their investment has been frozen and they have not been paid."
The trust will provide financial support for those affected by the Government's decision to put Allan and Jean Hubbard, their companies Aorangi Securities and Hubbard Managed Funds and seven charitable trusts into statutory management on June 20.
Related Topics
The newspaper then published this helpful paragraph.
To donate send a cheque to: Hubbard Support Fund Trustee, O'Connor Richmond, PO Box 172, Gore or at any Westpac branch to the account 030887 0473369 00
I have a couple of questions about this. Why are people who have not received interest cheques from Aorangi Securities so hard up that they need charity payments to help them buy food. Aren't they so-called habitual professional investors that didn't need the protection of a prospectus? And if this trust fund (and the newspaper) is soliciting funds to help make the interest payments on the frozen trusts, should it too be required to have a prospectus?
2. Surprising disclosure decision - CBS Canterbury have always been very open with us here at interest.co.nz and CEO Bryan Inch has been very helpful in agreeing to interviews. But the decision yesterday to ban the media from its annual meeting was a surprise. It was a public meeting after all and it wants to join up with Marac and Southern Cross to become a bank. That implies a willingness to be open and transparent. Surely a public meeting with shareholders is something that should be open to the media to be reported on?
CBS Canterbury chairman Gary Leech seems to think not. Here's the report from Marta Steeman at The Press, who I have worked with and have a lot of respect for.
CBS Canterbury typically does not allow reporters to report what is said at its annual meeting. Asked about excluding the media, chairman Gary Leech said yesterday: "At the start of the meeting I always have a preamble that basically says that nothing is to be reported from the meeting because it is a shareholder meeting. Last night's meeting was a particular one where we wanted a good free-flowing discussion with respect to a potential proposed merger.
"It was at a stage where we couldn't be definitive whether it was going to go ahead or not, and we wanted to give the freedom to our shareholders to ask whatever questions in a closed environment specific to them," Leech said. "I wanted to make sure that whatever did get reported was going to be what we also had lodged with the NZX," he said.
3. I wish we had a dictatorship too - Bloomberg reports China is going to trial a property tax to see if it can suck some air out of its property bubble. Maybe John Key needs to learn a few lessons from his new friends in Beijing.
China plans to start implementing a property tax in 2012 on a trial basis, the 163.com website run by Netease said in a report today, citing a finance ministry meeting in Beijing. The issue will be one of the ministry’s top tasks in 2012, the report said, without citing any official by name. Due to the difficulties of implementing such a levy nationwide, the tax may be rolled out first in a few cities, the report said without naming them.
Premier Wen Jiabao has restricted loans to real-estate developers and imposed higher interest rates and down payments for second mortgages to help cool surging property prices that rose by records in some cities in the second quarter. The State Council said in May it approved proposals from the nation’s top economic planning agency to gradually introduce a property tax.
4. Austerity's new friend - Now the IMF is saying Europe's governments need to be austere. Previously it said they needed to be careful before pulling back from the spending. Now it realises the bond vigilantes are in charge. Fair enough. Here's the New York Times' version.
The International Monetary Fund lent its support Wednesday to Europe’s budget deficit reduction efforts, pulling away from previous calls for stimulus even as it warned of a “moderate and uneven” recovery in the region. In response to increasing budget gaps in the region, “fiscal sustainability needs to be established, with ambitious medium- and long-term adjustment plans supplemented by short-term consolidation,” the fund said in an annual staff report on the euro economy.The comments solidified the fund’s U-turn in its guidance for euro-area policy makers. Late last year, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the I.M.F., which is based in Washington, warned during a trip to Europe that “a premature exit” from economic stimulus was the “main danger” to the region. Since then, a number of euro-area countries have suffered as investors, alarmed by large deficits, dumped the bonds of many economies, pushing up interest rates.
5. More Chinese strikes - This is a theme to watch in coming years. Growing labour unrest in China and a push for higher wages is going nip away at China's competitive advantages and its political stability. Here's the Reuters report.
Workers at Japanese electronics maker Omron’s southern Chinafactory have gone on strike, the latest disruption in the manufacturing hub over demands for better wages and working conditions. The burst of disputes that started in May has since affected more than a dozen mostly foreign-owned factories, raising questions about the region’s future as a low-cost manufacturing base.
The Omron strikers, who walked off the job on Wednesday morning, are demanding a pay raise of at least 40 per cent from their current salary of 1,270 yuan, with some workers saying they want an increase of 500 yuan ($74) per month and another saying the demand is for 800 yuan more.
6. Ponzi scheming Chinese loan sharks - We're starting to see under the hood of China's property bubble now. Here's a blog from IsraeliFinancialExpert on how loan sharks have become a big part of the property bubble in China. If true, this suggests any bursting of the bubble could get politically as well as economically ugly. The blog cites numerous emails and youtube videos of protests. I'd take it with a few grains of salt, but something is up here. Any suggestions these loan sharking operations have made their way to New Zealand's Chinese communities? HT Aaron
China’s real estate market is a huge ponzi scheme supported by shark loans. Ordinary Chinese pledge their houses to get low interest loans from the banks, then lend to local shark loan companies at high interest rates to speculate in the real estate market. Actually, in the later part of 2008, when real estate prices dipped for while in China, many ponzi shark loan schemes blew up, in cities like Heilongjiang province , He gang, Hunan province, Ji shou, Zhejiang province , and Li shui.
In Il shui the whole city was rioting since many households couldn’t get the principal back after the local loan shark companies couldn’t pay interest anymore due to the real estate price slump.
Local governmental officials, that are demanded from the government to produce double digit GDP growth numbers give real estate developers permits to build housing projects in return for bribes. They also get bribes in return for allowing the shark loan companies to operate under their jurastiction. some of them are active partners in shark loan businesses. For example, a party secretary of legal affairs, that controls the public security bureau, which is a court and prosecutor division of government in Yongkang city, in Zhe jiang province, tried to run abroad using a passport in 2009 after he found out he couldn’t repay 60 million Yuan.
Every scheme has a ring leader who's job is to collect money from all the participants in the ponzi scheme.
When some of these ponzi schemes blow up, the party leaders always get bailed out first, and some even ask local business owners to lend them money, and then bail out their own personal fund. After that the ring leader turns himself in and gets protection from the local government.
7. 'Follow the debt to the corporates' - Floyd Norris at the New York Times reports on research from New York University professor Edward Altman that says observers are better looking for debt problems in corporates as an early indicator of debt stress than looking at sovereigns. HT Chris via email.
“Academics and market practitioners have not had an impressive record of predicting serious financial downturns or of providing adequate early warnings of impending sovereign economic and financial problems,” says Edward Altman, a professor at New York University who has long studied debt defaults by companies and governments.
Mr. Altman’s answer is fairly simple: “One can learn a great deal about sovereign risk by analyzing the health and aggregate default risk of a nation’s private corporate sector, a type of bottom-up analysis.”
After that analysis, using a system he developed with a company called Risk Metrics, Mr. Altman’s ranking of European governments now differs a little from conventional wisdom. He sees Britain and the Netherlands as the safest governments, ahead of Germany. Greece is at the bottom, of course, with Italy, Portugal and Spain looking better than it does, but not particularly good.
8. The Debt Supercycle - John Mauldin at Market Oracle has a bit of a ramble through the debt outlook and sees either restructuring or pseudo default through money printing and inflation. HT Michael via email. Worth reading for the charts alone, including this beauty below. Read it and weep. He essentially says everything looks fine for the debt sellers like the United States government...until it isn't.
There is a limit to how much debt you can pile on. But as the work of Reinhart and Rogoff points out (This Time Is Different), there is not a fixed limit or some certain percentage of GNP. Rather, the limit is all about confidence. Everything goes along well, and then "Boom!" it doesn't. That "Boom" has happened to Greece.
Without massive assistance, Greek debt would be unmarketable. Default would be inevitable. (I still think it is!) The limit is different for every nation. For Russia in the 1990s, it was a rather minor total debt-to-GDP ratio of around 12%. Japan will soon have a debt-to-GDP ratio of 230%! The difference? Local savers bought government debt in Japan and did not in Russia. The end of the Debt Supercycle does not have to mean calamity for each country, depending on how far down the road they are. Yes, if you are Greece your choices are between very, very bad and disastrous. Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. Each country has its own dynamics. Take the US. We are some ways off from the end. We have time to adjust. But let's be under no illusions, we cannot run deficits of 10% of GDP forever.
At some point the Fed will either have to monetize the debt or the bond market will simply demand an ever-higher interest rate. Why can't we go the way of Japan? Because we do not have the level of savings they have traditionally had. But their savings levels are rapidly declining, which says that if they want to continue their deficit spending at 10% of GDP, they will have to go into the foreign markets to borrow money at a much higher cost, or their central bank will have to print money. Neither choice is good.
9. Headless chooks - There is a certain hilarity to this story. In the wake of the just passed financial regulations in the United States, it seems Standard and Poor's and Moody's are telling their clients not to use their credit ratings because of a clause saying S&P and Moody's are legally liable for their ratings. Oh dear. Now bond buyers are actually having to do some research on the bonds themselves...
So tell me again why is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand relying on ratings from these agencies to help it regulate non bank deposit takers in New Zealand? And why is it also relying on trustees to these same non-banks to help regulate the sector?
Here's Temasek Hedge with the story, which is detailed in WSJ, which is paywalled... And here's Naked Capitalism with a great summary.
The nation’s three dominant credit-ratings providers have made an urgent new request of their clients: Please don’t use our credit ratings. The odd plea is emerging as the first consequence of the financial overhaul that is to be signed into law by President Obama on Wednesday.
And it already is creating havoc in the bond markets, parts of which are shutting down in response to the request. Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are all refusing to allow their ratings to be used in documentation for new bond sales, each said in statements in recent days.
Each says it fears being exposed to new legal liability created by the landmark Dodd-Frank financial reform law. The new law will make ratings firms liable for the quality of their ratings decisions, effective immediately. The companies say that, until they get a better understanding of their legal exposure, they are refusing to let bond issuers use their ratings. That is important because some bonds, notably those that are made up of consumer loans, are required by law to include ratings in their official documentation. That means new bond sales in the $1.4 trillion market for mortgages, autos, student loans and credit cards could effectively shut down.
10. Totally irrelevant video - Jennifer Anniston has adopted a 33 year old Kenyan groundskeeper...
Jennifer Aniston Adopts 33-Year-Old Boyfriend From Africa
11. Bonus - Darth Vader's minions take the subway







42 Comments
How niave are these silly
How niave are these silly people setting up a trust fund?? For Funnell to claim that hundreds of lives have been saved because Hubbard lent him money to buy a helicopter is errant emotionalist crap. The same lives would have been saved had he been financed by Marac, UDC or other lenders. Or, is he really saying Hubbard lent money to someone that other lenders wouldn't touch?
Would they have set up a
Would they have set up a trust fund for the investors in Aorangi Securities if Alan Hubbard had died, leaving no-one to shuffle the money around and pay the interest; let alone a clear record of where their money was and how it would be repaid???!!!
Absolutely right imagine
Absolutely right imagine trying to sort out the mess with Hubbard dead !!!
Re (3), thanks for showing
Re (3), thanks for showing us, Bernard, why pragmatists are so dangerous.
Yeah, let's set up the most murderous type of dictatorship humanity has ever had foisted on it, if it can stop ma and pa investing in a second house. Jeez.
http://pc.blogspot.com/2010/07/quotes-of-day-pragmatism.html
"...pragmatists are so
"...pragmatists are so dangerous."
You are a perfect example of how non-pragmatists do so much damage to economies.
Gullible and greedy dreamers have set NZ back decades, and it's going to be many more decades before things come right again, and it will be pragmatists you have to thank for putting things right.
Absolutely! I'm a pragmatist
Absolutely! I'm a pragmatist and proud of it!
Semantics no more and no
Semantics no more and no less.
"if it can stop ma and pa
"if it can stop ma and pa investing in a second house."
Why does ma and pa need a second house? Maybe there's a young couple or young family which also need it? Oh, right, I forgot...BABY BOOMER GREED.
No, 10.57am, that's why we
No, 10.57am, that's why we need to kick our democratic tyrannies to touch, and finally move to free societies - which unfortunately will never happen in our lifetimes.
Here's where we've ended up, as prophesised in 1889: De Tocqueville in his conclusions on Democracy in America, and when asked: ‘What sort of despotism democratic nations have to fear’?:
"‘Above this race of men stands an immense and tutelary power, which takes upon itself alone to secure their gratifications, and to watch over their fate. That power is absolute, minute, regular, provident and mild. It would be like the authority of a parent, if, like that authority, its object was to prepare men for manhood; but it seeks on the contrary to keep them in perpetual childhood.... It provides for their security, foresees and supplies their necessities, facilitates their pleasures, manages their principal concerns, directs their industry, regulates the descent of property, and subdivides their inheritances - what remains, but to spare them all the care of thinking and all the trouble of living... It covers the surface of society with a network of small complicated rules, minute and uniform, through which the most original minds and the most energetic characters cannot penetrate... The will of men is not shattered, but softened, bent and guided: men are seldom forced by it to act, but they are constantly retrained from acting: such a power does not destroy, but it prevents existence; it does not tyrannize, but it compresses, enervates, extinguishes, and stupefies a people, till each nation is reduced to nothing better that a flock of timid and industrious animals, of which the government is the shepherd’ (De Tocqueville, 1889, pp. 290-291)."
No, worse actually, the place we've ended up more violent and brutal than this signifies.
Funny how clowns such as
Funny how clowns such as yourself have absolutely no problem whatsoever with our "democratic tyrannies" when things appear to be going great for yourself -- property bubble roaring along, endless free credit and debts you don't have to repay -- yet the moment reality returns and the fundamentals boot you in the arse you start whinging like little girls about how terrible our political system has become, even though it's only your personal fortunes which have changed, not the political system.
We pragmatists are going to make you work for a living for once in your slothful, privileged life, until you've finally repaid everything you owe and have helped yourself to, including interest. Get used to that.
My 'slothful, privileged'
My 'slothful, privileged' life? And how do you know what my life is like, exactly? I'm not even a property investor you stupid nurse. (Thanks for demonstrating, though, the apparent 'quality' of our state sector).
And just confirm for me please, as well as the two pragmatists above, the following: you believe, as pragmatists, that we should embrace a dictatorship, the likes of a dictatorship that has killed somewhere in the vicinity of 62 million of its own citizens, in order to dampen the property market? Yes/no?
The point appears to be that
The point appears to be that the only political system you consider to be acceptable is one which panders exclusively to your own personal needs.
And I suggest you go look up the word "pragmatist". It doesn't mean what you seem to think it does. (And you most definitely are not a pragmatist.)
It's the opposte of what you
It's the opposte of what you say, 11.58am. The only political system acceptable to me is one that:
Protects me from the initiation of force or fraud - so you can do whatever you want, so long as you don't initiate force on me, and vice versa.
Outside of that, a (libertarian) system that leaves me alone, to pursue my happiness.
A system, in other words, that frees my life from being a slave to your, or any other complete stranger's, needs. Ergo, which frees you from my needs.
At the moment, the biggest initiator of force, the biggest abuser of my freedom to do as I please, the entity which I am most fearful of, is our Nanny State democratic political system.
I agree with a lot of
I agree with a lot of libertarian viewpoints on the state and personal freedom but then I watch an old western movie where the sheriff is in cahoots with the biggest landholder and I turn off.
All very nice in theory but in reality little more than the Wild West
Yes, well the sheriff and the
Yes, well the sheriff and the landholder in collusion is crony capitalism - where the business sector seeks monopoly rents via collusion with the all powerful State, and only possible by the all powerful State - this is the corrupt system we have now: nothing to do with a laissez faire market, or a free, libertarian society which is the antidote to this.
Since when has NZ been populated by people with no ability to think conceptually through issues?
There is no hope with people as dumb as the ones on this thread voting. I despair.
May be some clarification
May be some clarification about political systems and pointing out the differences should lift the fog :
http://www.flixxy.com/political-systems.htm
All chance of balanced
All chance of balanced thoughtful journalism across the ditch is on hold for the next five weeks as the liars do battle to convince the stupid to vote for them...those who don't vote will be fed to Fatso...or forever forced to listen to speeches by Kevin Rudd.
Irony: The Aussies get to
Irony: The Aussies get to choose their leader next from between two candidates that neither party wanted as their first choice.
DEMOCRACY!
DEMOCRACY!
A bit of humour for the day,
A bit of humour for the day, an official BP photo of a helicopter flying over the crisis in the Gulf of Mexico. Problem is that the helicopter is actually still on the ground.
http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/07/bp-photoshops-another-o...
BP has since taken the photo off their official website.
Can Bernard give some details
Can Bernard give some details as to how he can advocate both the importance of substantially reducing the household debt burden *and* for sharply raising interest rates - which will substantially increase the household debt burden?
Now that amounts to a
Now that amounts to a conundrum inside a riddle wrapped in a puzzle....I sugest BH offer the following answer: to advocate is to 'call for' and is in no way to presume there is a chance in hell of that which is advocated could happen!
It's up to the households to
It's up to the households to reduce their debt burden, because most of those above the poverty line very willingly accepted that burden in order to have all of the latest trinkets, baubles and beads.
Those bearing a substantial debt burden as a result of purchasing investment property, expensive cars, boats, jetskis, overseas holidays, and all the rest must learn to cut back and sell off the junk piling up in their garages, even if it means taking a significant loss.
The people of this country must once again learn the lessons of the past already learned and forgotten, and live within their bloody means!
A generation ago, my employer
A generation ago, my employer told me " When women start selling their shoes, and men their watches, its a sign things are getting tough!"
TradeMe: Womens Shoes :10,913 listings,
Actually NA, it's funny you
Actually NA, it's funny you should post that because I was just about to write something similar.
Like many people, I'm a TMaholic, although I only buy books, and cheap ones as that!
However I do like to trawl randomly now and then, and one thing I notice is the massive increase of sales of things like new or near-new furnishings and whiteware, often still in the box.
A big percentage of sellers are bubblers who spent up large on goodies but have now discovered they can't actually pay for them.
Most sellers are trying to sell at the same price point as they paid, so very little is sold, but that's typical of the bubblers: trying to convince themselves it's still 2007 and everyone is lining up to buy.
did it ever occur to anyone
did it ever occur to anyone that half the trinkets and baubles being sold on TM are probably still subject to "interest-free' hp?
interesting way to raise cash whilst still being in hock to GE et al
raises potential issues over how much unsecured debt and potentially unrecoverable debt there is on GE's books eh?
That could apply to a lot of
That could apply to a lot of the vehicles, too.
In the case of household knickknackery, clothes, electronics and suchlike consumer items, a fair proportion is probably still on people's credit card balances.
Buying stuff on credit then selling it at garage sales for much less to try and pay the bill isn't much of a financial plan.
That's where I buy my shoes,
That's where I buy my shoes, so no complaints here.
The past few years have been a bonanza for the op shop bargain hunter fraternity. Tons and tons of brand new good quality stuff coming through just because people got bored with it, bought on impulse and changed their minds, or the colour didn't go with their new kitchen or whatever.
12.08 anon,
12.08 anon,
so true
best regards
MIsh has an article today on
MIsh has an article today on the same topic as #6
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/07/ponzi-shark-loans-fuel-chinas-housing.html
(spam filter wont let me post link)
I think #3 is actually what we call Local Body Rates. As I undersatand it, China's local bodies don't levy rates, they get their revenue from land sales and running property development, hence #6
Reccommend the Mish article
Reccommend the Mish article to all, tried putting it up earlier but ran into probs with the spam filter as well. Cheers,
KD
PONZI "SHARK LOANS" FUEL CHINA‘S HOUSING BUBBLE; HOME SALES PLUNGE 44% IN XIAMEN; BUBBLE BURSTS IN TIANJIN
China's property bubble is now on the verge of collapse. Transaction volumes are significantly down and declining volume is how property bubbles always burst. In simple terms, the pool of greater fools eventually runs out.
In China's case, the pool of fools is heavily involved in "loan shark" schemes where speculators hope property values rise fast enough to cover the interest.
Anon: >The people of this
Anon:
>The people of this country must once again learn the lessons of the past already learned and forgotten, and live within their bloody means!
Ok. So, then, should policy aim at making this objective:
1) harder?
2) easier?
3) I don't have any actual policy recommendations, but I do have plenty of sanctimonious cliches.
"3) I don't have any actual
"3) I don't have any actual policy recommendations, but I do have plenty of sanctimonious cliches."
Yes, we noticed that.
The Chinese are obviously
The Chinese are obviously taking advice from the same "experts" as everyone else; the ones who cannot see that it is the land SUPPLY distortions that are the problem.
In China it is worse than in the West, with our loony green urban planners running a racket with the land bankers. In China, local governments get most of their revenue from selling land that has never been owned before, in a long, gradual transition from Communism. The local officals responsible have long since worked out that you get a lot more money (including under the table) if you ration the supply.
The thing that is so hard to see, is that it is possible, because of the speculative bubble that gets going, to have "enough" homes, and even a good number of them empty, yet prices in a Ponzi bubble situation. Previous housing "booms", as in Texas in the 1980's, involved prices staying low, and quantity oversupply due to mania in the construction industry. Now, the Texas construction industry has spent 10 years booming like never before, with all the homes they can build being snapped up by people fleeing overpriced California. California has the planning/land banking racket, Texas does not.
It is essential that policy makers get their heads around all the factors here, and not fall for knee-jerk judgements that "supply can't be an issue", "we need more taxes", "we need more housing subsidies", etc. "Supply" distortions are the ONLY way to explain both PRICES AND SUPPLY being too high.
Forget the "shortage"
Forget the "shortage" fantasy. There isn't a shortage. There never was and probably never will be.
""Supply" distortions are the ONLY way to explain both PRICES AND SUPPLY being too high."
Prices rose because banks were willing to lend vast amounts to everybody dumb enough to accept whatever asking prices was thrown at them.
That lending has stopped, almost nobody can pay the stupidly high asking prices (and the few that can won't), therefore property isn't selling and prices are falling.
This is happening all over NZ and in the other countries in which a bubble formed and burst, and it's about to happen in all the other countries now in a bubble period (Australia, China and most of the rest of Asia.)
The only thing which can save a bubble is a genuine property shortage (never happened yet, anywhere), or a return to the days of crazy lending (not likely for a long while), or a sudden and massive increase in average incomes (Ha ha!).
Don't worry Nick Smith will
Don't worry Nick Smith will sort the RMA for you and Hugh P soon.
“Chinese loan
“Chinese loan sharks” (the vocabulary is endless) swimming in NZ waters with many desperate octopuses – bon appétit sharks.
With their government support plenty to eat here in NZ too. Some octopuses are already gone !
I suspect that Inky Tulloch
I suspect that Inky Tulloch and Allan Hubbard might attend the same church.
Is it true the credit ratings
Is it true the credit ratings agencies have instructed clients not to use their ratings as a result of Obama's new law!
Philbest - good idea,
Philbest - good idea, supplying more land. My current map of NZ looks suspiciously like the one Cook drew, maybe yours is different.
That approach only supplies exponentially more housed people who consume exponentially more stuff, from - note that map - a finite supply.
Means your approach means a bigger crash.
Intelligent folk tend to ease off on the throttle before the impact, and I judge folk's intelligence by whether they are capable of seeing what's coming..
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