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User's guide to KiwiSaver; Psychological tips for successful stock investing; Confessions of an account junkie; Why small investors will miss out; Reality bites
By Amanda Morrall
1) KiwiSaver user's guide
Regulars to our site will know by now the ins and outs of KiwiSaver. For the benefit of those still trying to come to term with the basics, Morningstar NZ's Chris Douglas and myself helped to produce this segment for Radio NZ's This Way up programme. We'll have a second instalment in a few weeks time so stay tuned.
2) Psychological tips for investing
The more things change, the more they stay the same? Personal finance blogger prairieecothrifter.com decided to put that piece of wisdom to a test looking at whether investment writer David L. Markstein's psychological tips from his 1960s' "Build a Fortune in the Stock Market" were still relevant today. Mostly.
3) Confessions of an account junkie
The advent of internet and mobile banking has made keeping tabs on bank balances easy. I expect, the process and habit will continue to improve as revolutionary new apps and systems for personal banking come on stream. Keeping track of your financial condition will undoubtedly lead to better long-term outcomes if it remains front of mind. Here's a confession from a self-professed account junkie from deliverawaydebt.com
4) Missing out?
Related Topics
Have small time investors been priced out of the financial advisory market by the new regulation? In her latest blog, Wellington's Liz Koh of MoneyMax. explains how regulation has ironically damaged the relationship.
One of the unfortunate consequences of increased regulation of financial advisers is that some smaller investors now find themselves squeezed out of the market for personalized investment advice. There are two types of investment advisers who are able to give advice to the public: Authorised Financial Advisers (AFAs) and Qualifying Entity Advisers (QFE advisers). Whereas AFA’s can give investment advice on a wide range of investment products, QFE advisers can give investment advice only on products offered by the company they work for. QFE’s are generally large companies such as banks and insurance companies. There are less than 2000 AFA’s in New Zealand, and many who hold the designation do not give advice to the general public. Just to make it even more confusing, some of the AFA’s work for QFE’s such as banks. An AFA working for a QFE can give advice on a wide range of investment products from different providers.
With the limited number of AFA’s available, many advisers and QFE’s are now setting minimum limits on the size of investment portfolio they will advise on and manage. These limits can be anywhere from $100,000 to $1million or more. At the other end of the spectrum, QFE’s such as banks are using the large number of QFE advisers in their branches to sell KiwiSaver and savings and investment funds for small lump sums or regular contributions. It is increasingly difficult for investors with small to average portfolios to find advisers who can advise them on a wide range of investment products from different providers. Getting advice on whether to purchase shares in the proposed Government asset sell-down is a prime example of this, as advice will need to be obtained from an AFA, not a QFE adviser, many of whom will not be interested in smaller investors.
Shame.
5) Reality Bites
On Friday, interest.co.nz contributor Terry Baucher hypothesised about the negative tax implications for The Block TV show's winners. Assuming they do have to pay tax on their winnings, the effort expended takes on a different light. Greg Ninness takes a similarly sobering view in this article published on stuff.co.nz by taking into account the real risks and more probable outcomes faced by the average do-it-yourselfer looking to make money in the residential property market.
To read other Take Fives by Amanda Morrall click here. You can also follow Amanda on Twitter @amandamorrall
68 Comments
Ah The Block, a quality bit
Ah The Block, a quality bit of bogan programming originally from Australia. It's just another reality TV show that has the appearance of being unscripted but is carefully planned to make it look like it's possible for any Joe-Bogue to renovate a house and make money.
As pointed out by the Stuff article - even before the taxman passes his glad eye over your 'profits' - once the costs of the production company to purchase the properties and pay for the renovations are taken into account, there is no profit to be had. The same thing was pointed out here about 2 months ago when The Block finished in Melbourne.
Also as well as all the hidden costs Stuff points out like interest payments on the loan, insurance etc, there is the lost opportunity costs to be realised - lack of rental income while renovating, lack of personal income while doing the renovations etc. The only way it really makes money is if you buy a house to live in that needs a makeover, do it while you live in it (painful!) and then flick it as your personal property and avoid the taxman (no more than once a year).
I've done up a few places both in London and NZ (and have the full range of De Walt power tools and a Paslode nail gun) and can attest to how ridiculously unrealistic shows like The Block and DIY Rescue are. What you don't see are the teams of tradies fixing stuff up off camera, the team of people running around getting consents and inspections (off camera), the teams of people measuring up and running around after 3rd party suppliers getting all the fittings and doors and windows etc made and delivered on time etc etc.
One of the hilights of DIY Rescue for me (apart from knowing one of the rescue team who filled me in on the REAL details of how much work goes on offscreen) was the team chainsawing a hole in an exterior wall, getting some bifolds lifted over the fence and into place, and all sealed and fitted IN A MORNING. Yeah right. Try getting a consent for that, getting the bifolds made, getting a guy to deliver it and someone with a small digger to lift it over the fence, and then getting it into place without 4 other burly guys. Then seal it and paint it and get it inspected. Get back to me in a month or so's time when it's done.
The Block - never seen it, never want to.
I concur. Interesting that
I concur.
Interesting that it turned up about the time Olly N made his 'Good News for You' comment.
The Westpac Consumer
The Westpac Consumer Confidence report out today found that we are all terminally depressed, we feel worse off than we were a year ago, the Nz economy will be worse in a year, & no it's probably not time to buy the $3000 leather lounge suite from Harvey Norman....
Things can only get worse, before they get better.
"Now for the really bad news.
"Now for the really bad news. Any critical thinking person should realize the Federal Government has been systematically under-reporting inflation since the early 1980’s in an effort to obscure the fact they are debasing the currency and methodically destroying the lives of middle class Americans. If inflation was calculated exactly as it was in 1980, the GDP figures would be substantially lower and inflation would be reported 5% higher than it is today. Faking the numbers does not change reality, only the perception of reality. Calculating real median household income with the true level of inflation exposes the true picture for middle class America. Real median household income is lower than it was in 1970, just prior to Nixon closing the gold window and unleashing the full fury of a Federal Reserve able to print fiat currency and politicians to promise the earth, moon and the sun to voters. With incomes not rising over the last four decades is it any wonder many of our 115 million households slowly rot and decay from within like an old diseased oak tree. The slightest gust of wind can lead to disaster. "
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36573.html
Change a few names and you have an accurate comment on New Zealand...think about it!
We are a nation in debt...where very little remains of a once dominant culture of thrift...where most are being farmed by a bank or two...where wannabee politicals strive to buy votes on the back of promises that will grow the debt...
Pretty soon the socialist mob of liars will offer up a new vision of kiwi utopia promising to borrow more and boost the stupidity that already pervades NZ like a cancer...Parker will return, full of himself and stuffed with 'new ideas' on how to borrow our way to growth.
Interesting, yesterday. A few
Interesting, yesterday. A few Labour types started tag-team commenting - and someone climbed out of his longdrop. Someone who bounced along until election run-up, then started being a screaming National supporter. Then subsided.
Here we are again - a reasonable piece (which no thinker would/could disagree with) but then an attempt to associate it with Labour. Acftually, the current Govt are making the Clark crowd look like babes in the woods, in terms of rate-of-disenfranchisement.
Currently, NZ'ers own their electricity supply. Sure, theres the nonsense that they make a 'profit' out of themselves, but nevertheless, they own it. Soon, they won't, and sooner or later an increasing portion of the 'profit' will go overseas. If that isn't an undermining of their wealth, what is?
Add the elimination-by-degree of Kiwirail, the de-democratising of Local Govt, the PPP's, and the vast majority are getting screwed.
Mind you, we were all going to get 'poorer' on average; what I resent about the current mob, is that they help a small number to stand on the heads of others.
Oh gosh PDK did I get it all
Oh gosh PDK did I get it all wrong..there I was thinking Parker was off on a junket to learn at the feet of the Keynesian masters of the greater debt filled universe.
Considering Keynesian
Considering Keynesian economics identifies the problem, (zero bound) and has a proven/workable process/policy for getting out of it, where no other economics school does he could do far worse, like say the UK, Ireland, Greece....ie austerity...
However I dont think he's gone for a keynesian brush up....I think he's gone to find an alternative to the broken mantra of growth...
regards
PDK - NZ'ers actually bank
PDK - NZ'ers actually bank rolled the State electricity infrastructure/supply via taxes. There is absolutely no benefit to the people of these State owned asset, except that whatever the Government earns from it should offset some of what they spend. They used taxes to obtain the Capital input into these projects.
Government then supplies electricity to the final consumer at market rates which have already been set. There is no benefit or return to the taxpayer. The taxpayer lost the use of their own money by compulsion to fund a project which if the Govt sells will offset other Govt accumulated debts of which the taxpayer is liable for anyway. If people only realised that all Govt spending and Govt debt is actually the responsibility of all taxpayers maybe they would not be so keen to see Govt's having debt.
If Private enterprise wanted to undertake such a project it would have to bank roll the entire project on its own and then price final supply cost to the competitive market.
The fact that Govt can bank-roll via the tax system for anything it wants to spend up on and the taxpayer is liable for any debt that the Govt creates is where all the problems lies.
Labour increased it's purchasing of assets at the expense of all taxpayers for the duration of its reign during 2000's. I think this is severe mismanagement on Labours behalf and if a Director of a Company acted so incompetently they would have been investigated.
Far too many people are confused about what the hell an asset is already. They don't even consider that an asset might have caused a debt in the system. In the case of asset purchasing that has been undertaken there are two components which have and economic effect, 1, the withdrawal of money via taxes from the system, 2, Other debt the Government might accrue because of that asset purchase.
The current financial mess is actually the hangover effect of, earlier decisions and spending, earthquakes, GFC, open market entanglement with free market, offshore owners of income producing assets which repatriate profits, unproductive bureaucratic expansion, endless money printing etc.
The vast majority are getting screwed because they don't understand the system they keep voting for. They vote instead for what Govt's promise them at the expense of the shrinking private enterprise and the ability of private enterprise to keep funding these costs.
Different Govt's stand on different heads and that is the only thing that differs.
notane - wrong. lotta words
notane - wrong.
lotta words but wrong.
I think you share Misty's belief in things monetary.
Yes, some of that infrastructure (Clyde dam being a classic) was overly 'bankrolled'. But we own it, all of us. Whether we pay at 'market rates' (a bollocks in the circumstance, it's totally contrived, an ideological nonsense) or whatever, we are the shareholders. I comes back to us. If the shareholding goes overseas, we lose that percentage. Remember that 'Govt' is us.
Whether the White Star Line or the passengers owned the deckchairs, the ship sank. Arguing that the ownership would make a difference, would have been to deny the slope of the deck. I'm saying that the bows are under.
Wolly, The linked article
Wolly,
The linked article certainly painted the real life US situation for many families, so thanks for that. It certainly reinforces why we should try and avoid the same fate, assuming we actually have. Its only your last paragraph that intrigues me. You seem to have been taken in by the National people who surely are very likely to perpetuate the banker and top 0.1% thriving at the expense of everyone else that seems to be the premise of the article. Since they have come in our fiscal deficit has exploded, although they have a largely valid excuse with the GFC. A key frustration to me, is their wilful expansion of the current account deficit (remembering that the world's current accounts are zero- there is no GFC excuse. In fact our terms of trade have been as good as they ever have been during the last 4 years.).
As a country the current account is the best measure of our continued and expanding indebtedness. I wonder why National are so determined to have it grow, at the expense of all of our futures. (Your linked article hints at reasons they may- it works for their mates is the clue). Do you really think Labour would make that worse; they are at least talking about taking measures to address it?
StephenL, I thought you
StephenL, I thought you wished to start an emergency round of currency debasement here - the outcomes will be no different to those which Wolly's commentator alludes to - Coming off the Gold Standard was just the first step.
Stephen, Indeed I would like
Stephen,
Indeed I would like the currency to be fairly priced, to give exporters and import substituters a reasonable chance; and I would like the current account to be a core target as the current deficit by definition is adding either to our indebtedness or loss of assets as a country. The deleveraging we need to do is to slow that down and reverse it. The deleveraging the US needs to do is in their middle classes, as the article notes. Given they are primarily a domestic economy; and we are primarily a trading one, the focus is likely to be different.
Still, if I was them I would give tax cuts at the bottom of the income scale, (not the top, as Romney would advocate. Trickle up works, trickle down does not) putting money directly into all income earners hands, but particularly those who need it. Giving more money to the banks, as Bernanke is doing, may well not work, given the banks need borrowers to be able to repay any loans they make. I would fund the tax breaks with money printing, keeping their currency down, helping their manufacturers and exporters; at least until inflation starts to gain momentum. For this purpose QE has worked well for them.
For us, the current account deficit is the best score to demonstrate that the NZD is overvalued. There are opportunities to bring it down; although I would not advocate the US approach of buying mortgage debt off banks merely so they can boost their balance sheets. I personally would buy back enough of our foreign debt, using printed money, as needed to get the currency at fair value.
Stephen L, If you continue
Stephen L, If you continue with this crusade to uproot a market based discovery mechanism to determine the value of the NZD/USD currency pair you have a duty to provide research to convince us which level is approriate and the exit strategy, other than the polling booth, the chosen non-elected body would employ to correct any disastrous consequences thereafter.
I am sick and tired of waiting for empirical proof of successful economic outcomes beneficial to society as a whole that will flow from currency debasement - and I do not need the Swiss thrown in my face - they run a whole country based on financialising all aspects of human endeavour - their arms industry exports are just a cover - I spent many days of my life visiting counterparty clients who only had corporate foreign wealth to put into play for the particular size games I was playing.
Stephen, If it makes you feel
Stephen,
If it makes you feel better that you are not alone in being grumpy, I'm somewhat sick and tired of us either selling assets, or borrowing, to fund an extra $15 billion a year that we have not earned.
I would have thought it is fairly self evident that such a large current account deficit is very much linked to an overvalued currency; but following is further evidence as I see it.
Since November 2008 (when the Nats came in) the NZD has appreciated against the Euro by 37%; against the USD by 41% and the GBP by 35%. Only against the Aussie has it declined, by 10%. A minor part of this massive appreciation may have been due to terms of trade or economic fundamentals; but again it would seem self evident to me that nearly all of it is due to those countries printing money, either directly or indirectly, to make their currencies competitive. The surplus countries- Germany, China, Japan, Switzerland have all taken similar steps to depreciate or hold down their currencies.
So without any action, our currency is, again it would seem self evidently, way overvalued. Evidence for that remains a very high and growing current account deficit. (where surely over time a fair value is a balanced current account).
Further self evidently it seems to me, any exporters and manufacturers that have survived a 30-40% drop in their competitiveness, through no fault of their own, but rather through sitting on their hands by the government and Reserve Bank, are heroic indeed. Note a plea of despair yesterday from John Walley, of the NZMEA.
Then there is our process out of our addiction to foreign funds and indebtedness; I thought Kiwidave pointing us to the following paper on relatively good and bad deleveragings, made logical sense.
http://www.bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/deleveraging/an-in-depth-look-at-deleveragings--ray-dalio-bridgewater.pdf
You wouldn't wish having to deleverage on anyone; but when you are in a position as needing to do so; then the paper points to having a competitive currency; and to well directed money printing.
What evidence do you have of fixing a massive and ingrained current account deficit by other means?
Ok - if you don't want to
Ok - if you don't want to start the work, here goes:
Check the RBNZ data: Current A/C balance as a % of GDP open CurrentA/C tab
Try fitting the NZD/USD rates to the above and for now note if there is a strong corrrelation between the two releases - something to give reason to advance the study.
Stephen, A fair challenge.
Stephen,
A fair challenge. Have correlated the exchange rate USD/NZD with the current account, from 1990 until 2012, as you've suggested. Excel comes up with a 42% correlation, which I would have thought was quite high. Perfect being 100%, and random no relationship being 0.
Has that whetted your appetite for more work?
Regards,
Absolutely not - 42% needs to
Absolutely not - 42% needs to be 80% - I think you need to ascertain why a fall in the currency value may not necessarily cause your desired outcome - a fall in the current A/C deficit.
I think Les Rudd and Bernard should also be concerned that this scoping exercise has not been that forthright in confirming strongly held views that if executed as stated could lead to catastrophic cost of living increases for many individuals without obvious national benefit.
Maybe it's a case of the market knows best and nanny state interventions should be left in the incubator until rigorous analysis has proven otherwise.
Stephen, On what is a
Stephen,
On what is a meaningful correlation, we will have to disagree apparently. I actually thought I was using understating language around what seems a massive correlation. Of course there are other things at play, such as terms of trade for key commodities imported and exported; a dotcom boom and bust in the US, terrorism and wars; and not least the GFC and massive money printing; as well as very significant capital flows into NZ chasing yield and cheap assets. With all that, a 42% correlation standing up seems very significant indeed.
On the question of cause and effect, I have separately lagged each of the current account and the USD exchange rate by a year, to test for which may cause the other.
The lagged current account has a 22% correlation; the lagged USD rate, an 18% correlation. This does support the idea that there is cause and effect both ways, which makes sense. A higher NZD does cause a higher current account deficit; and a higher current account deficit does then lead to some drop in the NZD. Given the 42% rate within the same year, the suggestion is that a change in either will have a fairly quick effect.
Good luck - I would not let
Good luck - I would not let you trade your own money never mind mine if it was up to me.
whats your granularity and
whats your granularity and SD? (standard deviation rate)
(ie an hourly sample rate, with 0.5sd's is quite impressive evidence - but a monthly sample, with 2sd's says it's a basic trend not a specific causality)
mist, I've used the microsoft
mist,
I've used the microsoft excel (correl)ate function, for two data sets of annualised figures over 23 years. Am not sure how many standard deviations that ends up with, or indeed exactly how microsoft works the formula. Have also charted the figures, (but am not sure whether its possible to load a chart here) and the charts show a clear relationship. As it happens if I stop the data at 2008, the correlation is 68%. 2009 was an outlier year where the current account deficit improved dramatically, despite the exchange rate. I suspect at the start of the GFC capital flows around the world clogged up (keeping the exchange rate at reasonable levels); while from memory also food prices suddenly shot up, no doubt helping export receipts. Normal service resumed from 2010; and given todays CA figures is heading exactly where you would expect given the exchange rate.
23 years is pretty good.
23 years is pretty good. But using annualised figures is pretty much position trading material, as there's a lot of move and correction material inside each year.
the rise in food prices was a direct result of low cost credit, that credit should show on your currency graphs. capital flows did jam though due to "rogue traders", stopped trading, The Pyramid scheme guy Mer... (damn can't remember it) getting caught, the fanny mae and freddie mac choking on poison mortgages and unable to trade.
However 68% is quite low. Especially with such a long peroid of averaged data.
Any chance you can split it to quarters, and seeing if the correlation of periods lines up (eg the Q3's all show similar characteristics) as this will show confidence in the intrapolation for the 68%. Personally if I could isolate the trade frequency a bit better, I'd hope for 80% to be able to say there's a strong correlation, rather than general trend.
Alternatively is there any element of data (house prices, dairy prices etc) you could remove and retest to see if that's pushing the correlation higher or lower. It would give a chance to see if outliers events had disrupted the correlation.
Someone I know of likes to find forex sets of pairs that correlate well. They then wait for a diverge then, bet on them correlating, taking a 3:1 on both pairs towards the correlation. I think they used GBP for one, as it correlates reliably.
Stephen L - "As a country
Stephen L -
"As a country the current account is the best measure of our continued and expanding indebtedness".
That's a lie. A demonstrable lie. And it's a Labour, as much as a National, lie. Tell your mob to get it together, thank you.
The only TRUE accounting includes Natural Capital at real cost - depletion of the finite obviously ends in infinite cost, pollution has to be mitigated real-time (not by some future generation sans the finite resource needed to do so, squandered by your generation), and any dip below a sustainable rate of anything, has to be panalised to the point where it ceases. That goes for all 'Current Accounts, public and private, globally. Which skews any figures currently held, to the point of meaninglessness.
Do you not understand that arguing about who gets which deckchair is a waste of time - a socially-criminal waste of time - at this point in time? While Shearer/Parker et al tout growth, and deny limits, they're lying. We can argue as to whether they're lying to themselves, or to the electorate, but that's what they're doing.
How about starting a debate in your ranks? You're no use until you have.
Its going to be interesting
Its going to be interesting when the lying becomes obvious to even the eyes wide shut brigade........I ownder how the pollies will spin the last 5 odd years of denial and do nothing in the face of evidence.
Lamp post & rope anyone?
regards
Be careful what you wish
Be careful what you wish for;
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee"
Yeah....but I dont wish
Yeah....but I dont wish it...I worry about it. If leaders by lying or just by ommision bring disaster upon us....should they be surprised if the dis-enchanted wish to get personal? Just look at the greek parliment making sure thier escape exit was clear...
regards
Stephen Hulme - that comment
Stephen Hulme - that comment is not only stupid, it's a lie in itself.
I've made the point here, many times, that emotion has nothing to do with it. Why the insistence on 'wish'? Who stated it was a wish?
A warning is not a wish. Sorry to sound as if I'm talking to a 5 year old, but it seems to be needed.....
Yes, this particular bell tolls for everyone. There are two ways to address the limits placed on growth by the finite nature of the planet. One is to acknowledge them, and aim to get onto a sustainable footing as soon as possible. (The only valid approach, in terms of sirvival of the species, and indeed societally).
The other is to accelerate into the limits, carrying the biggest planetary population, biggest (finite-fossil-fuel-based) infrastructure ever, and the most aquifer depletion, erosion, desertification, atmosphere-changing, runoff-pollution, ever.
To follow the second one, you have to lie. Either to yourself, or to the punters, knowingly.
Which applies to you?
"Knowlingly" MK Hubbard made
"Knowlingly" MK Hubbard made a speech in the 1950s? 60s? warning of the mathematical certainty of peak oil.....so its sure a few generations of lying.
regards
Grow up pdk - my comment was
Grow up pdk - my comment was directed at the stupid and unnecessary "Lamp post & rope anyone?" rhetoric.
I try and keep thoughts of
I try and keep thoughts of retribution at bay myself (they being a diversion and a waste of limited remaining time), but when folk in a position to make a difference, avoid addressing reality - "I'll take my chances" comes to mind - I must admit to the occasional mental right hook. Make that left hook.
So the Greek Parliment was
So the Greek Parliment was stupid and it was un-necessary to make sure they had an escape route?
Saddim Hussain farce of an excution didnt happen?
Riots in the UK recently were "un-justified" according to the UK Prime Minister. When you have little hope left, or worse none but see others doing very well or better thank you....just how stable is your society?
Back in history the winners didnt hang / suspend the losers along road sides as examples?
The point is our leaders and "betters" seem dis-connected from the populace...I would suggest continuing along those lines could be un-healthy.
regards
That's why selling hope is
That's why selling hope is such a big business. And hope is great, it's a popular product, and costs relatively little to mine.
Mist42NZ - you hit the nail
Mist42NZ - you hit the nail on the head with that post. And anyone selling anything, hope included always appear to use - Ethos - Pathos - Logos.
The other is to accelerate
The other is to accelerate into the limits, carrying the biggest planetary population, biggest (finite-fossil-fuel-based) infrastructure ever, and the most aquifer depletion, erosion, desertification, atmosphere-changing, runoff-pollution, ever.
But what could possibly go wrong!?
PDK, that just doesn't work
PDK, that just doesn't work sorry.
Look you can "ride a horse" or "you can walk"; or "can take a boat" or "you can swim".
Those are the only ways to travel.
Except if it's not true, and the two listed examples are the not the only options.
So either "Stop lying" or "Start telling the truth". pick either one.
Or learn to present logical options properly, and learn to avoid the fallacies you're continually promoting. (and learn the limits of those logical systems, too, please.)
Sorry, you lost me there. Did
Sorry, you lost me there. Did you reply on the wrong thread?
My logic is simple (and listening to the 'best song ever written' chappie on Nat Radio yesterday, it is shared by folk who can think dispassionately. (It requires both :)
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2532756/best-song-ever-written-arthurs-theme
"I've made the point here,
"I've made the point here, many times, that emotion has nothing to do with it. Why the insistence on 'wish'? Who stated it was a wish?
A warning is not a wish. Sorry to sound as if I'm talking to a 5 year old, but it seems to be needed.....
Yes, this particular bell tolls for everyone. There are two ways to address the limits placed on growth by the finite nature of the planet. "
You have to track back up the thread and match the replys indent level to the previous comment.
You keep stating this as if it were a P+~P situation of 2 bodies. That (P) or (Q) must happen and they're the only two significant outcomes. Yet your position or your logic are both highly fallacious (or at least not solidily established), especially given the nature of the proposition you have under examination which is considerably complex. (and involves chaotic, creative, multibody relationships and time elements)
Thus not only is your logic "simple", it is fundamentally and throughly, flawed.
Bollocks Mist. Stick with
Bollocks Mist.
Stick with you monopoly game. Me. I'll just point out that when the pile of bricks cannot supply the demand for them, no amount of bidding will make more of them appear.
Unlimate scarcity, no substitute (scarcity applies to all substitutes, so 'economics' is shyte on that, time being the only variable) is the problem. The exponentially-increasing pace of that scarcity, has to be a problem all the way down from peak. and the peak was reached with exponentially-increasing speed.
Linchpin resource energy.
But you go and get more dollars. I'm sure they mean a lot to you
...... see , that's the third
...... see , that's the third time today someone has mentioned " peak bricks " .......
Surprised that Hickey hasn't cottoned onto " peak bricks " ...... seeing as he's thrown most of his at the NBR ......
"Me. I'll just point out that
"Me. I'll just point out that when the pile of bricks cannot supply the demand for them, no amount of bidding will make more of them appear.
You can keep doing that, and you are entitled to speak your opinion here on the matter.
However the fallacy of repetition and of simply asserting something as a undeniable truth does not make it so.
It's not about dollars. dollars is like "stuff". it's unimportant.
Money is important. Capital. With capital you can acquire bricks (the nazi's in my example, just went and arrested the Jewish brickmaker, and disassembled his brick brickmaking factory - then they found brickmaking isn't as easy as they thought! The value (money) of that brickmaker saved himself and many other people, in return for his aid.
If the demand is there then brick substitutes will be created. That is how things are created. Be it V8's, incandescant light bulbs, selectively bred rice cultivars. Sometimes it requires more resources, but if the resources are available, it will occur. Reduce the resources, then it just takes longer, or the demand will die away. And very few situations result in absolute resource failure - except for necessary commodities, food, potable water, clothing, medicines, lack of violence - life and humanity will continue and adapt.
I do not fear change, and see no reason to do so. But my information says those on the bottom are more likely to be forced to bear the burden and discomfort of that change, and occasionally the local top gets cleared out, whether French Aristo's, Russian Tsars, English Jews, European Knightly Orders. Best instead learn of the nature of change and bet accordingly.
If we are facing certain doom, I want to be the one selling the tinfoil hats, and anti-nuclear blast tablecloths.
"Money is important. Capital.
"Money is important. Capital. With capital you can acquire bricks"
Bollocks Mist.
If there are no bricks, you cannot acquire them. End of story. If there is an increasing scarcity of bricks, en route to there being no bricks, your 'money' won't acquire you as many, whatever you call it.
That dissonance is a cranial problem you share with more than a few, but it's your problem, not mine.
The kind of planet which underwrites endless spending has to be flat and infinite. No other configuration supports endless resource-based growth. There has been a tendency over recent centuries, to ridicule flat-earthers.
Just a thought. :)
Told ya ! ...... finite
Told ya ! ...... finite planet ..... has to be a limit ...... " Peak Bricks " is upon us ...
Continually repeating your
Continually repeating your fallacy does not serve as proof PDK.
So far the only thing I've found that is completely unrecoverable with money (aka resources) is Time.
And you know what? With substantial money I can devote resources to finding a solution to that - without the money I cannot devote resources to that.
If indeed there were no bricks, and there existed sufficient demand for them, I will cause them (or an acceptable substitute) to be invented, probably from recycled not-bricks. Or do you think matter, and bricks, disappear after being used, in the same way energy disappears after use?
As for the completely unsupported and outlier referrence to flat and infinite earths.... throwing worse fallacies and random ambiguities only makes your argument wronger than wrong and brings about the question of the quality of your personal logic systems - as ad hominem is not a fallacy when there are sufficient grounds to believe your actual logic system is flawed (ie, such repeated and obscure fallacies call into question your initial position, and suggest that it is worth rechecking what initially appeared as trival sequences for gaps). English translation: you're weakening your original argument with your crazy talk.
Mist - sorry, but if there is
Mist - sorry, but if there is no more of a resource, there is no more of a resource.
Period.
I suggest you go for a drive. I'll allow you a full tank, and since you seem to value it, all the time you need. Oh, and you can take unlimited dosh, any denomination.
Did you go forever?
No? What a bugger.
And, you know, the only difference between your tank and the global oil supply, is scale. Same goes for all extracted finite resources, and all finite substitutions.
PDK, when a publicly
PDK, when a publicly announced witch and magician starts telling you you're talking like a crazy person, it generally pays to take heed.
Sure I'll take your bet. because I think you're full of it and unable to honour it.
For my resource, I will take the new wisdoms of Aristotle.
Please supply unlimited dosh, NZD in the form of a pair of titanium Credit Cards drawn in your name (1 visa, 1 Mastercard) get the ones with airpoints please.
I bet I can find appropriate resources, or valid substitutions, given unlimited money.
And if the tank gets low, then I can buy alternatives. Sure it's expensive but with unlimited dosh, paid for by PDK, then I can be the next government spendup. If I pay off every NZer's debt (with your unlimited dosh) then I'm thinking they'll help me find a viable fuel alternative, at least enough to last for the length of our civilisation, and possibly beyond.
No Mr PDK "I'm in the Real World". Front up on your offer. Put your money and gas where your mouth and fingers are. I'd say "or shutup" but I think that's beyond you, because if we're seeing one unlimited resource it's 'PDK harping on about his fake end-of-the-world scenairo'.
addendum: repetition of your position PDK, does not constitute proof.
It seems you are un-willing
It seems you are un-willing or un-able to take on board the concept of a) there will be no more per day oil from now on, b) at some point the output will decline (and that's within 5 years, max of 2020...I'd even say 2015 is 95% certain). By 2050 fossil fuels will be long finished as the energy of a global economy. c) The price now moving forward will be above $80USD (and its beginning to look like $90)
http://peakoil.com/production/latest-saudi-oil-production/
for most of the time effectively stopping any further growth and indeed causing a permanent recession.
Sure if you are bill gates with your platinum you will be able to drive your bugatti on bio-fuel around a short race track...the other 99% of us wont have cars and wont need or have money/tax for roads for [fast] cars.
Proof is on multiple sites,
www.peakoil.com
energybulletin
oildrom
ASPO
Even IEA
Just because you cant put 2 and 2 together isnt a good reason for denial.
regards
No steven, it's not that I'm
No steven, it's not that I'm unwilling or unable. I just appreciate market fundamentals and have a deeper understand of the processes, thus consider it irrelevant.
Peak Oil is only relevant for those who can't do without it.
Currency rates reflect the fundamentals and the influence on the markets, nothing more.
I rest my case. You
I rest my case.
You couldn't do it without getting resources from outside your car. Read: planet. Only diffo is scale.
So you need an infinite one, then.
As I said, flat.
You are "Resting your case"
You are "Resting your case" on what is known as a "bait and switch" fallacy.
To use the example as you have you have to establish that the car's behaviour (fuel, travel) is equivalent the Earth's resources. If we want to play the silly childrens game of "bait'n'switch" then I will use my cellphone in my car to phone a garage for a towtruck, and more gas. After all that fit's your scenairo as much as the Earth is going to cease it's orbiting, and sun will go out, when we run out of petrol. And then my brother would say but your cellphone battery is flat too. and I would say I have a spare and can always recharge it on my car adaptor. And which point he says.....
All your example proves is that you're trying to force artificial limits to prove your theory - which is nice, because your theory is correct...if only we lived in a world with such artifical limits.
But I can see how that is attractive to you. Another scenairo, if I was in a boat crossing the tasman sea, then perhaps my mind would also be paranoid about the food, water and fuel supplies. I would only have my resources, and only basic tools. And should I undertake such a journey and have privations then I can understand it might imprint a complex heavily on my subconcious.
But I'm not. I'm on a farm. And when something doesn't exist (or is too expensive) as most things are then a substitute or workaround is found (which is why bureaucratic legislation is so foolish on farms). So on that boat, I wouldn't just be bemoaning my fate, I'd be rationing originally and constantly searching for alternatives. There is no give up. If things are absolutely totally screwed, (lifeboat, rags, roaring 40's/subantartic) then I'll do the walk on water bit. The important thing is not the success. It is the never giving up and choosing my fate. If the ship was the Titanic, I'd be seeing to my family and people best I could, then heading to the bar to raise a toast to the Powers with the best whiskey I could find. If I was trapped in a lifeboat, with no food, and a guy who constantly moans how stuffed we are... well I've just found some fish bait, and one less mouth to feed.
I've been down before. I've been up before. Several times. I spend every day in pain. But y'know what here's a link to one of my favourite cartoons. I even have this particular one laminated and stored by my computer. http://countyoursheep.keenspot.com/d/20040204.html
Even now it fires up my emotions.
Just reminded me.........way
Just reminded me.........way way back in the day, some Dude made his way up in the Tower of Notre Dame just in time to find Quasimodo appearing in readiness to ring the Bell.
He noted there was no Bell rope and inqiured of Quasi how he rang the Bell. When Quasi shook his head and pointed to his ears the stranger realizing Quasi was deaf, gesticulated the question again.
Ah..! Quasi's face lit up as he pointed to his own head and then the Bell, again his own head then the Bell. The stranger gave him a look of bewilderment at which point Quasi rushed the bell head down...Dong went the Bell,.... again slamming his head in ...Dong went the Bell...
The stranger almost deafened but exhilarated by the experience motioned that he'd like a turn at it to complete the adventure.....
Quasi smiled a toothless grizzly smile and nodded...The stranger took a few steps back and rushed the Bell, face planting it for lack of technique...Dong went the Bell and as it did the stranger stunned by the impact was struck firmly by the returning bell...dong ..went the bell, ooohhfff ! went the stranger as he hurtled over the belltower balcony......and splat..he hit the ground killing him instantly.
Quasi stood and stared in stunned silence as a crowd gathered below including Claude Frollo, Quasi's caregiver since birth...
Looking up Claude beckoned him to come down , Quasi hurried down as fast as his hunch would allow.Using sign language he had taught Quasi as a child, he inquired as to the strangers identity , the gathered crowd were also anxious to learn who the stranger was and how he came to fall from the Belltower.
Quasi realizing this did not look good, became sheepish and a little uncertain.....
Claude Frollo signed again the question, with more urgency this time..Who was this man..?
With a flailing of arms and fingers Quasi replied to the Acheacon Claude Frollo....and then looked upon the deceased stranger in a puzzeled way.
The gathered crowd, emotions rising to pitchfork status, jostled the Archdeacon wanting to know what Quasi had said.
The Archdeacon replied......He said , he doesn't know , but the face rings a Bell.!
In the morning the Gummy
In the morning the Gummy bowel tolls me to be first onto the long drop before the others in the Gummster clan get there to release their weapons of chemical warfare ........
Steven, you do understand the
Steven, you do understand the people involved and the proportion of the resources they control, in order to protect their interests??
"Its going to be interesting when the lying becomes obvious to even the eyes wide shut brigade"
Therefore do you understand what the state things will have to get to before the inconvenient truth hits the under-educated Jo Public??
Did it get that far in
Did it get that far in Greece? cant the ppl of Ireland see it? Iceandics saw it pretty quick?
Not sure to be honest...
There is enough in the media to throw hints....let alone looking yourself.....
Sit back and see how it goes, not much to do really.
regard
I think the Icelandics struck
I think the Icelandics struck it lucky more than they were careful. They managed to unite behind someone who actually did something useful. I think that person would disappear in the noise in many other country, and get teh tall poppy chop in NZ.
pdk, Am perfectly happy that
pdk,
Am perfectly happy that the environment should be an important criteria in any decisions we make- either because we are running out of stuff (I thought your particular priority) or because of global warming, or pollution generally. I am happy that we should try and be ahead of the world even, in environmental actions, but am not convinced that New Zealand can do that on its own, or exactly how hard it should try, if the rest of the world is not.
In the meantime we have sold or mortgaged all our deckchairs (although have them on a kind of temporary leaseback), and don't have any life boats either from an economic point of view.
SL - fair reply. It is
SL - fair reply.
It is still valid to take the appropriate actions, even if nobody else does. Brinksmanship is stupid at this stage; the old goals already being invalid.
The hydro and rail infrastructure can't be removed overseas, will be 'owned' by the local population (which may be decided by force, mind) ie Nationalised.
Current economics is based on growth. There has to be a new model - but that'll be interesting, even Daly's model doesn't really stack up. Look to a point, not far ahead, where there is no 'money' to pay for services, which will be deemed needed by society. Health, teaching, that kind of thing. Voluntary hours countd as in-lieu-of-tax/rates perhaps? Time Dr MacMillan, J.T.Paul, Jack Lee and the rest, came up with a New Deal.
It's not brinksmanship
It's not brinksmanship PDK.
Have you noticed that in any downturn it's always the poor and the unpopular that wear the brunt of any losses. Whether it's food/clean water shortages, evacuation, access to energy sources, or political influence.
NZ is falling behind due to continued incompetence and radical theories at the top (without properly understanding the dynamics of the whole system).
So when the bear is chasing, it's not about brinkmanship, it's about not being the weakest sickliest member of the pack. About not having everything of value (eg clean water, food manufacturing, communications and personal Rights) owned by someone else - like a poverty struck Africian village who sold it's water to the foreigners for a pump, and now has to buy the pumped water back off the foreign investors.
Society goes in cycles. But it's still around. Those who have strong positions and resources in the bad times, have the best position of the survivors in the next cycle. And the cycles are not optional.
Take the French Revolution as a classic. All the poor, all the dead rich people. Yet what about the funds? What about those who lend the Aristo's cash money, and took the exported food/goods. They were neither poor, nor chopped.
When I was younger, I was taught that about the goldfields. The prospectors seldom became rich, the ones who made the most from the gold were the suppliers and the bureaucrats. And when I say suppliers...it wasn't the blacksmith or the farmer who made the supplies (or white gold). It was the value add chain.
So when you can build and support your hydro and rail with sticks and Brachyglottis Repanda, then you might Nationalise it. But since NZ has been systematically stripped of major production/factories, and the bureaucrats have financial interest in asset stripping anyone foolish enough to try and startup such activities in NZ it is unlikely that NZ will be able to bootstrap itself any better than Pacific atolls with more pleasant climates. As for doing it with the wage rates expected (and protected) in NZ, no chance.
And therein lies the problem
And therein lies the problem Stephen L.
I am happy that we should try and be ahead of the world even, in environmental actions, but am not convinced that New Zealand can do that on its own, or exactly how hard it should try, if the rest of the world is not.
If we all think/believe that then we may as well carry on as we are. The issue isn't whether we can acheive it as a nation but whether we believe as individuals that something has to be done. It is up to us as individuals (no matter what nation we belong to) to take the first steps. But first we must look at ourselves and challenge our own beliefs and expectations.
Inspirational reading/food for thought?
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-15/cynicism-intellectual-cowardice-cop-out-rationalize-fear-and-laziness
http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-07-09/hope-lazy-challenge-our-dead-world
http://therightsofnature.org/governing-people-for-earth/
It is that we have been using an economic point of view that has got us into this situation in the first place.
"The signigicant problems we face today can not be solved by the same thinking that created them" - Albert Einstein
Disclaimer - I also have the same challenge. Although I am aware (at least believe I am) of the issues we face I still have to face my own fears and challenge myself before I can take the next step.
It is not that we have been
It is not that we have been using an economic point of view that got us into this situation.
It is that the economic view is warped by self-interest by certain parties willing to prosper at the expense of the system, and all those others less able to avoid the consequences. The worst of this has been those entrusted to manage the system (bankers, government (elected and salaried)) to whom managing the status quo far outweighs any deep economic research. However that said, they also have weather some pretty heavy political seas, and compromise is never good for the underdog.
Had we actually been doing economic research properly, much of the approaching storm would be obvious. However most in power are more interested in keeping loyalty, and proving their point to be correct (or at least sellable) than fixing the hard questions. Politically speaking, it works out best when the hard questions start hitting the people on the street - people demand & vote for heroes that save them, NEVER for creating hardtimes that avert potential catastrophy.
Nothing like ignorance is
Nothing like ignorance is there wolly. Hows infaltion doing now tomatoes are back to $10 a kilo...taking off eh?
The point is to actually look at the trend and do apples with apples comparisons and be as accurate/balanced as possible. So you could go both ways, take the old way and use it today and say oh my god...or take the new way and apply it to old data....
I'd be interested in that outcome.
".where most are being farmed by a bank or two"
Indeed, and that farming is becoming more and more intense...and now the farmers like ANZ etc are looking to move to India where there is an up and coming middle class who dont have CCs etc....they in turn get farmed....teh answer is dont go into debt....but that's a lesson that is coming to us really soon via a Greater Depression....
"socialist mob of liars"
Who is actually doing the borrowing? its the so called middle class looking to speculate on property...or to fund their "lifestyles" Whos the biggest proponent of that? National.
"borrowing", Look up Steve Keen's defination of an entrepreneur
regards
one litre of oil at service
one litre of oil at service station = $22
ouch.
Sorry...I cannot resist.. Not
Sorry...I cannot resist..
Not like you.....???
Mist yer calling...
I think the dipstick, was holding the dipstick....at that particular over priced Service Station.
Try ...Super Cheap...on special and keep at least all or a quart in the boot....and dipstick frequently.
And I can skite......I have a dipstick...MARK 2. (A new, hopefully.... improved one)
My son came home the other day in his old dunger....Did not even register oil on the dipstick.
Now he checks daily...
A hard lesson to learn...if caught out...in the Wilds....and yer big ends welded to yer WALLET.
Would it help SL, if I
Would it help SL, if I pointed out it's not me paying for the oil, and they went to Repco instead. Now my cars topped up, and I have half of a 4l pack in the garage, and "thanks for use of the car mate" :) I pay for the gas, but they do the petrol top up when getting the stuff from town for me. Nice of them to do the oil though.
QEternity! Had to laugh at
QEternity!
Had to laugh at this
"The Fed just put a heating pad under the corpse. See, its not dead. Thermometer indicates a slow but steady recovery, but let's keep the heating pad on anyway."
Anything to get Barry re
Anything to get Barry re elected and keep BB in a job.
Only three things will really
Only three things will really get Obama re-elected Wooly.
1. A voter turnout that is resigned to the new chant ...."Maybe, we could have ".. while appreciating.... "No we didn't "
2. Fear of Romney, fear of Mormon idealism
3.developing a sudden aversion to conflict.
Ok four things Wooly.,....of
Ok four things Wooly.,....of course I left off the obvious...
4. Romney would develop a severe case of Foot in Mouth while attempting to demonstrate you can be even dumber than Bush and still run for office........wot a dumass.
Wolly isn't wooly , Count
Wolly isn't wooly , Count ...... romneys are ...... uh , Romney , sorry ... foot & mouth in America , it seems .......
...... oh deer , deer ..... it's not that Mutt said anything untrue , it's just the candour of his delivery , and at a $ 55 000 per table fundraiser dinner too .......dumb mutt ....