“Why shares aren't always better than bonds in the long run”

Andrew Gawith 9

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HOT TOPICS: New RBNZ Governor | House prices firming | Top 10 with NZ Mint

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Election 2011 - Party policies
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30 Jan 12, 11:34am, Bernard Hickey

4 comments

Choices

Adrian Orr. A former deputy governor of the RBNZ, he is now CEO of the NZ Superannuation Fund. Personable, pragmatic and experienced. Has the common touch.

Grant Spencer. The current RBNZ deputy governor was Alan Bollard's right hand man through the crisis. Accessible, genial and solid. Top internal candidate.

Rod Carr. The current VC of Canterbury Uni and former CEO of Jade Software. Was acting RBNZ Governor in 2002 before Bollard's appointment. Unlucky to miss out then.

Wild card overseas candidate. Tim Geithner needs a job. So does Dominique Strauss Kahn. Maybe Mervyn King wants to get away from it all.

Wild card local candidate. Don Brash is out of a job -- Quite experienced. Michael Cullen -- has time on his hands. Gareth Morgan has plenty of time.

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17 Jan 12, 4:15pm, Bernard Hickey

8 comments

Choices

Hold until late 2013 and then hike. The NZIER is right. The economy is flat and inflation is under control.

Hold until late 2012 and then hike. The Canterbury rebuild will have started by then and inflation will be building.

Cut later in 2012. The Euro crisis will worsen and China is slowing fast. Inflation is not a problem. The economy needs more help.

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14 Dec 11, 8:04am, Bernard Hickey

7 comments

Choices

We're spending more than last year. Things are picking up. Armageddon didn't happen. Let's enjoy life. Let's jingle those bells.

We're spending the same as last year. Things are OK, but not that much better. Best to be a bit careful. A merry but conservative Christmas to all.

We're spending less than last year. It's been a tough year and the slump in Europe might mean it gets tougher next year. We're with the grinch.

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13 Dec 11, 9:12am, Bernard Hickey

5 comments

Choices

NZ$2.70. That's the same as the initial public offering price. It was priced at the top end so there's not much room for 'stagging'

NZ$3.00. There was strong demand from funds and retail investors. They didn't get enough in the float, so that will push up the price.

NZ$2.50. The shares were over valued. Fairfax squeezed as much out of it as possible. The float price of 15.6 times earnings per share was too expensive.

NZ$3.50. Trade Me is New Zealand's dominant brand online and will go from strength to strength as more retailing moves online. Demand is very strong.

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25 Nov 11, 7:34pm, Bernard Hickey

5 comments

Choices

Yes. Very. The potential for an implosion in Europe's banking system should scare anyone. Not to mention a European depression.

Quite a bit. Europe is important but it's not the end of the world. China will save us again. It did last time.

Not much. You're all a bunch of worry warts. The Europeans will get their act together. They can't afford not to. Chill out people.

Not at all. New Zealand is doing fine. China is still growing very fast. The Europeans will get themselves sorted. Smile. It's sunny out.

Don't know. Anyone who says they know what will happen is deluding themselves. Let's watch closely and be careful before rushing to judge.

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21 Nov 11, 3:32pm, Bernard Hickey

13 comments

Choices

National. John Key has done a good job and he's right about NZ having a brighter future. Better than Labour too.

Labour. We shouldn't be selling state assets and we need both a capital gains tax and a higher top income tax. Also a reform of exchange rate policy.

Greens. Both Labour and National are addicted to unsustainable growth, unfettered free trade and social injustice. Go Green.

NZ First. Winston Peters is the man to keep National and/or Labour honest. He's also serious about monetary policy reform.

Mana. Hone is the man.

United Future. Peter is the man.

ACT. Don is the man. Or maybe John.

Maori Party. Tariana and Pita are the man and woman.

Conservative. Colin is the man.

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14 Nov 11, 8:47am, Bernard Hickey

Choices

Cut it 25 bps to 2.25%. Europe is a mess and it will spread around the world. Our economy needs help.

Leave it at 2.5%. The NZ economy is doing better than most. There's enough stimulus there. Taihoa Alan.

Raise it to 2.75%. The economy is picking up. House prices are rising again. 2.5% is too low. Tighten soon.

Don't know. A lot could happen between now and December 8.

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28 Oct 11, 9:31am, Bernard Hickey

34 comments

Choices

Yes. Finally some politicians are thinking long term about the nation's economic health and the wealth of future generations.

No. We've worked hard and deserve to retire at 65. We don't trust politicians and fund managers to build our savings any more. Buying houses is best.

Don't know. It depends on the policy details for transition arrangements and on how financial markets perform.

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26 Oct 11, 9:40am, Bernard Hickey

Choices

Hold it at record low 2.5%. The quake rebuild is slow and the global economy is struggling. Wait until mid 2012 for signs of a rebuild and global recovery before hiking.

Cut it to 2.25%. This economy is going nowhere. It needs another boost. Europe and the US are already in recession. China is slowing. Get on with it.

Raise it to 2.75%. The cut in March was a response to the Christchurch emergency. That's over. You said you'd withdraw it. Do it now. Deposit rates are painfully low.

Don't know. The RBNZ Governor is in the best position to decide. He sees the data and has the models. Let him decide.

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19 Oct 11, 8:45am, Bernard Hickey

5 comments

Choices

Soft compulsion with auto-enrolment and an opt out is better. That catches the lazy ones but still allows choice.

Hard compulsion is best with no opt out. We have to save more and this means everyone builds up savings to supplement NZ Super.

Neither. Let's leave KiwiSaver as it is. Hard compulsion and soft compulsion are expensive for the government.

Get rid of government subsidies for KiwiSaver altogether. Borrowing money overseas to put into KiwiSaver funds makes no sense.

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