Current account deficit much bigger than expected
September 19th, 2008
New Zealand’s current account deficit blew out to a record NZ$4.6 billion in the June quarter from NZ$3.5 billion in the March quarter because of weaker exports, heavy imports of oil products and machinery, and a widening of our income deficit due to higher foreign debts.
The drought affected exports, while higher oil prices and higher interest costs boosted imports and New Zealands investment income deficit.
The result was well above the NZ$3.9 billion that the market had expected and the deficit for the year to the end of June of NZ$14.97 billion was above the market expectation for NZ$14.1 billion.
The deficit on investment income, which measures how much we pay in dividends and interest payments, rose to NZ$13.9 billon from NZ$13.4 billion in the March quarter.
Here is the full Stats NZ release on the results.
The seasonally adjusted current account deficit widened $1,097 million in the June 2008 quarter to $4,623 million, Statistics New Zealand said today. The larger deficit this quarter was mainly due to a rise in goods imports and foreign investors earning more on their New Zealand investments.
Seasonally adjusted goods imports were up $753 million, mainly caused by rises in petroleum and petroleum products and capital goods. Exports of goods fell slightly, with a drop in dairy export volumes partly offset by a rise in crude oil exports. As a result, the seasonally adjusted goods deficit increased $867 million to $1,066 million in the June 2008 quarter. Income earned by foreign investors from their investments in New Zealand increased $214 million.
This was mostly due to a rise in profits and dividends from foreign investment in New Zealand companies. New Zealand earnings from its investments abroad fell $18 million, mostly due to a fall in profits of overseas subsidiaries of New Zealand companies.
The current account deficit for the June 2008 year was $14,967 million, compared with $14,096 million for the June 2007 year. The larger deficit this year is due to an increase in the investment income deficit.
A current account deficit is financed by either increasing foreign liabilities, reducing foreign assets, or a combination of both. In the June 2008 quarter, New Zealand’s current account deficit was financed by a $4.5 billion net inflow of capital, primarily due to a reduction in New Zealand’s foreign assets. The reduction of foreign assets has caused net liabilities with the rest of the rest of the world to increase. At 30 June 2008, New Zealand’s overseas liabilities exceeded its assets abroad by $159.2 billion, an increase of $5.3 billion from 31 March 2008.
Tags: Current account deficit, debt, Trade
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September 21st, 2008 at 11:28 am
$13.9 billion in dividends and interest….. WOW !!
In the 1950s’ and 1960s’ a current account deficit was MAJOR headline news AND a MAJOR political Issue… (as far as I know)….
Now, nobody gives a shit. …
As Warren Buffett once said, Having a Balance of Payments / Current Account deficit is like slowly selling the family silver , to maintain our current lifestyle… Family silver is the metaphor for our..”ASSETS”.
Normally imbalances are self correcting thru the movement in the exchange rate.
Countries with large Current accouunt deficits should have weak currencies..
Because the world has embraced “globalization”…”free trade”….deregulation”…etc we have paradoxes (perversions) that defy common sense….. eg… High NZ dollar because we have high interest rates.
This is where, I think, George Soros is right.. Markets can be driven my fundamental ideas that are, in fact, Misconceptions…. which are in simple terms… “false beliefs”..
I think our attitude to our Current Account deficit is an example of this.
I have not heard of ANY political comment on this… NOTHING…Nothing from economists either.
An on going Balance of payments / current Account deficit MUST have profound long term consequences…???
It makes me laugh when I here comments from our Economists saying that NZ is in great shape … That we are “resiliant” , “robust”.. better able to cope a global downturn.
I have a book called “the dollar Crisis” by Richard Duncan… Great book . Title is a little misleading… this not “pulp non-fiction”…. It is a great book about the imbalances of global trade and the possible consequences of those imbalances.
Feels like I’m writing to myself… I might be the only comment on Bernards blog of the Current acct deficit….
$13.9 billion…. Just imagine that being used within our own economy..!!!!!
cheers
September 21st, 2008 at 3:03 pm
In responses to the last comment, forget the detail gobblegookspeak , maybe Karl Marx was right after all. So why have people shoved the master analayst of capitalism into the dustbin? Surely we were warned about this time and time again. Short memories perhaps.
September 21st, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Capitalism, as we know it, is dead.
US investors now starting to withdraw from their money market funds which prompted the last ditch efforts to bail out the market on Thursday.
But people can smell a rat. Good luck to us financing our deficit and overseas debt. The upside is we may never need to repay it
September 21st, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Bruce…. R U talking about George Soros or Karl Marx..????