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Fonterra expected to revise payout forecast to NZ$5.20/kg
January 28th, 2009
Economists and analysts are expecting Fonterra’s payout revision at midday today to be around NZ$5.20, a survey conducted by interest.co.nz shows.
None of the six banks or institutions surveyed picked a revised forecast below $5.00. Predictions ranged between $5.00 and $5.50, with $5.20 being the median of the expected ranges.
Fonterra forecast last year a payout of $6.00/kg for the current dairy season, down from a final payout of $7.66 last year.
The outlier of the survey was Westpac, who predicted the announcement to be $5.50, Westpac economist Doug Steel said.
Federated Farmers were rather surprised at Westpac’s prediction and said they expected the payout to be in the $5-$5.20 range, but not lower than $5.
ANZ economist Kevin Wilson said they expected the payout to be in the low $5.00 range, and that the revised forecast will be heavily dependent on how Fonterra’s Value Added business performed and what the dairy giant’s foreign exchange hedging position was.
NZX Agrifax told interest.co.nz they expected the announcement to be $5.15.
BNZ’s Mark Walton said they were predicting a revised forecast in the $5-$5.20 range, and that it would be closer to $5 than $5.50.
ASB’s Chris Tennent-Brown said somewhere in the $5-$5.50 range.
In an on-line poll, 37% of interest.co.nz readers said they expected the revised forecast to be $4.50, with 35% expecting $4.00.
Tags: Agrifax, ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Chris Tennent-Brown, Doug Steel, Federated Farmers, Fonterra, Kevin Wilson, Mark Walton, Milk Payout, NZD, Westpac
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January 28th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
$5.10………shows how much readers of this blog know
January 28th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
yea well raf, final payout $ will be the real cruncher. How does fonterra value its unsold product? Not alot of positives out there for dairy products at the moment, no indication of next years payout, sanlu still in the poo, and fonterra is too.