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Building consents up in September as both apartment and residential consents rise (Update 1)
October 30th, 2009Residential building consents got another welcome boost from retirement village demand in September, with apartment unit consents and normal dwelling consents both rising from August. (Update 1 includes economist comment.)
There were 155 apartment consents granted in September, with 93% of these for assisted living apartments associated with retirement villages, Statistics New Zealand said. This was up from 30 apartment consents in August, but down on 366 in September last year, although consent figures for apartments are more volatile than for normal dwelling consents.
There were 1,275 consents for normal dwellings in September, the highest unadjusted monthly figure since July last year (when there were 1,322 consents). This was up from 1,165 in August and similar to 1,269 in September 2008.
Here are Stats NZ’s comments on the figures:
Excluding apartments, the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings authorised in September 2009 rose 2.8 percent, after rising 3.1 percent in August 2009.
Although the level is still low, it is at its highest since August 2008. The trend for the number of new dwellings authorised, excluding apartments, has increased 23 percent since March 2009, following a 54 percent decrease between the recent peak in May 2007 and the low in March 2009.
Including apartments, the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings authorised in September 2009 rose 3.3 percent, after rising 1.8 percent in August 2009. The trend for the number of new dwellings authorised, including apartments, has been increasing since January 2009, although it has eased in recent months.
For the September 2009 year, consents were issued for 13,616 new dwellings, including apartments, a 35 percent decrease from the September 2008 year.
The value of residential building consents was $480 million in September 2009, 14 percent lower than in September 2008. The trend has been increasing since March 2009 after a series of falls that began in July 2007.
Here is ASB economist Jane Turner’s take on the figures:
Residential construction is poised to lift off its current low levels. However the lift in housing demand has been relatively muted and the recovery in residential construction is likely to be subdued. The decline in construction activity has created a significant amount of slack in the economy and has been responsible for much of the unwinding in inflation pressures over the past year. With a construction sector that is likely to remain below capacity for sometime, the RBNZ can have some confidence of limited inflation pressure stemming from the construction sector, although the rise in house prices may be more of a concern.
The RBNZ reiterated its intention to hold the cash rate at low levels until the second half of 2010, as the sluggish NZ economy requires ongoing policy support. However, with the domestic economic outlook improving we believe the tightness in the housing market will test the RBNZ’s patience. We continue to expect the first hike will be in April 2010.
Tags: Apartment building, Building Consents, statistics new zealand
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October 31st, 2009 at 4:36 am
The trend has increased by more than 20 percent in the last six months which is a good sign.
October 31st, 2009 at 7:56 am
Only fools see boom times a coming. Bollard will have to raise the ocr and the fixed rates are heading up with no ceiling in sight. Unemployment will remain high for a long long time. Taxes are set to rise and the young skilled Kiwis shoot through blue. It’s goodbye to the immigrant pork pie and hello to falling property prices. To top it off Councils will try to screw more money from ratepayers, insurance premiums will keep rising as will govt charges. Road user fees set to rise Nov 1st. Likely there will be a state departure tax at airports. Private health fees will rise. ACC already to cost more and provide less. Vehicle reg will rise. Oh yeah…and the RE mob and banks see good times ahead…go figure.
October 31st, 2009 at 8:54 am
Whatever wally, cannot remember the figure off the top of my head how many sections have sold in the last 3 months that have timeframe for construction covenants on them but it is ALOT. Genuine people planning on building in early 2010.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:04 am
Indeed there will be people building…not buying!. Summer approaches and building always picks up. The overall picture is however one of gloom and an ongoing recession. Even Bollard can see that. Were I a young bloke I would be planning to head to aus. No future here other than higher taxes and a lower income. We don’t live in an age where people sing a national anthem anymore. The ditch is 2 hours. Pop out to the airport buyerinchch and watch your regions youth bugger off for good.
October 31st, 2009 at 10:00 am
Panic over; GFC gone! That’s good then, should help the NZ real estate market.
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/6405955/us-exits-recession-strongest-growth-in-two-years/
October 31st, 2009 at 10:20 am
Ruru,
yup.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/market-cheers-over-ugly-gdp-report.html
October 31st, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Funny you say that wally as aussie is where i mainly export to! Wouldn’t want to live there, happy to take their money though.
October 31st, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Quick, Wally ! Get the camera….buyerinchch is an exporter. They’re as rare, and endangered, as the kakapo.
I can only say that given that we sell locally; to Oz and Japan…thank God for the Aussie orders this selling season. Let’s hope nothing nasty happens across The Ditch, as there’s no way we could make it through relying local sales.
October 31st, 2009 at 3:19 pm
There is no such thing as a quick Wally.
October 31st, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Wally, you missed out. I bought in Dec. last year for 288k, same house sold in June 2007 for 360k. At the moment could be sold for around 340k, and is going up. In less then a year made almost 50k capital gain, which wasn’t my intention anyway, but feels good…
October 31st, 2009 at 5:38 pm
Cheers Paulr, I did indeed not buy property and as you say missed out on your 18% gain. I’ll have to be content with my 100% gain on copper shares bought in late 08 and live with the prospect they stand to discover yet more copper gold and silver plus accepting the company has started to mine a mountain with about 1 million ounces of gold within. Enjoy your 18%.
October 31st, 2009 at 6:23 pm
You will never, never convince anyone that they are wrong over housing in NZ.
You have not got a PRAYER.
We are not like America and UK and Iceland, Spain, Portugal, etc….Cos we are so bullet proof, you can BANK on it. (It is guaranteed……up to a point).
We have a new Saviour who has traded his way to success at the HELM.
(See Herald).
By the way, that term trading meant taking from someone else.
ie… Manipulating currencies if you did not understand how it was done.
I know that is BLASPHEMY ..but true, would have been thrown out of the temple if he had been a Mormon…sorry wrong Church, that was JESUS ’s wont in the GOOD old days.
Luckily today we have two GODs here in NZ, one at the helm and one as our final …………DESTINY.
Let us prey……..cos there are a few SOULS there…….. who need saving too.
And here is the real crux of today’s rant.
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/10/30/150-billion-for-650-000-jobs-is-it-worth-it/#at
Just ask where and how those billions manipulated and stolen by BANKS are suddenly OK by throwing future purloined trillions at the problem in the same way…again.
All around the World, there is no upsurge, except in crime and stupidity.
California is going broke, and this is paying your way American Style. (Yeah right).
Look at Dow, up/down/up/down/ manipulation and fudging.
Same as our dollar…… a yoyo…..a play thing.
And still they steal the pension funds and bail out more and more USA banks and shon-key car firms making clunkers…a bit like our LEAKY HOMES, but as usual…. I digress..
And all for only 650000 jobs gained, mostly lower paid than ever, before they were LOST… (ironic that)….and yet with no pension schemes now…….cos of these self serving same idiots.
YEAH RIGHT…..how rewarding.
It will not just be 150billion, cos it is exponential, there is no recovery, just a spiral downwards, just more gamblers and idiots fudging the books.
Then readers….. transpose that into why we are having to borrow a mere 40 billion to keep little ole NZ afloat.
We do not have a problem, we are out of recession, cos we inflated out way out…too. Just ask the workers laid off recently and the guys who just bought houses.
Next time you see one……Just ask the REAL ESTATE people, why they have to sell REAL ESTATE, instead of OWNING all real estate…in collusion with the BANKS,
(a bit like a POLITICIAN’s additional PERK to date, under today’s legislation, but I digress…yet again).
Why would you not buy all Real Estate yourself, instead of SELLING the real estate.
It is so easy to borrow your way to success after all….just do not ask for money for your business, only to buy real estate. (See any BANK).
NOT even working real estate as in farms, orchards etc…….so lucrative.
Just ask the CRAFARS.
Tell me, Why is a working farm is worth less than a beach house?.
See Herald and TRADEME, just put in DAIRY FARM. (Mortgagee wouldn’t hurt).
Why the UK cannot pay its pensions. They really must be Browned off over there.
We have no work, we have no real money to spare, we only have over valued houses and DEBT here in NZ.
Even our tourism is down, and sliding…..WHY….
(Wanna…. buy a motel…check TRADEME again).
Pity the poor suckers who want their money back in future….with interest.
So is that why our dollar is so high, is that why America has no problems, is that why UK and rest of World has no problems… cos they just printed their way out and we should all go back to how it was and we benefited.
Will that re-open the Factories just closed?. Will that bring back our tourists?.
Will that pay our future pensions too…and our POLLIES overseas TRIPS….for that matter.
Will that pay our PETROL bill……our tyre re-treading.
China does not have a problem, just a lot of devalued USA dollars and overcapacity at the firework factory, Syringe PEN, and even Plastic TIKKI factories.
We can buy some fireworks cheap and let em off at the RUGBY WORLD CUP…and give away freebies…Anyone for a “P”syringe and a Tikkii…. we will make a killing from that one…
No problem, we borrowed our way out of it…
Alll over……I don’t think so….
Now we just have to pay it all back in TAXES….to keep our Saviours happy.
Yeah Right.
Here end-death the lesson.
October 31st, 2009 at 7:04 pm
Paulr:
Your bought for a good price at $288k when the previous buyer, who thought $360k was agood idea, did the same.
A clue, a clue ( as they found out): You ‘aint made nuthin’ till the cash is in the bank! And then the IRD gets to have a sqizz……
And if you don’t think they will: Family member who boasted a couple of years ago about how easy it was to make money out of R/E in Queenstown, had the Boys come ‘a knocking last year….. 3 years after the sale !!!
October 31st, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Harriet: How active had he been? Was it just the one sale?
October 31st, 2009 at 7:24 pm
Paulr:
Congratulations! SELL HIGH BUY HIGH. Otherwise, somebody is going to sleep under a tent or roadside?
Without selling, then no real gains at all. But, if sell it, then CGT and/or Lax Tax and/or some form of tax might be knocking soon, maybe…..?
Again, congratulations for the happiness you are feeling now.
October 31st, 2009 at 7:35 pm
She, actually, ruru. And no. It was just one property that was never owner occupied, and turned over rather quickly for $40k ‘profit’. It’s turned out to be more of a dilema than she thought, as ALL her returns for the last 7 years are being re-examined. ( Apparently they don’t tell you when they’ve stopped looking ! You just have to check the mail box every day.)
November 1st, 2009 at 9:37 am
Harriet: No owner occupation looks to have hit the alert button at IRD. I have been wondering about how tight the enforcement is getting in the owner-occupier do-up and sell-on area. Not because I’ve done so (too many family responsibilities to be mobile) but I know people who have made lifestyles of it.
March 1st, 2010 at 6:29 pm
Aw, this was a really quality post. In theory I’d like to write like this also – taking time and real effort to make a good article… but what can I say… I procrastinate alot and never seem to get something done.