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90 seconds at 9am: Housing confidence at 2007 levels; Copenhagen conference gutted
November 16th, 2009Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9am in association with ASB, including news that housing confidence surged in the three months to October, an ASB survey has found.
Confidence is now back at the levels seen in 2007 at the peak of the housing boom, with 53% of those surveyed expecting house prices to rise while only 13% expected house prices to fall.
But is it sustainable? ASB economist Nick Tuffley questioned whether the RBNZ could keep the OCR on hold until the second half of next year and survey respondents also expected interest rates to rise. Interestingly, the proportion who said now was a good time to buy actually fell, perhaps in anticipation of the higher rates.
Meanwhile news out of Singapore on the weekend that the Copenhagen climate change conference will now just be a talk shop with the hard details hammered out later, the BBC reported.
Tags: 90 seconds at 9am
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November 16th, 2009 at 11:04 am
I think the lack of understanding of world events and how this could effect NZ is mind boggling, its looking like a lolly scramble…with no thought of what happens if things go wrong.
regards
November 16th, 2009 at 11:21 am
If things go wrong….steven . ” If ” ……… You must be an optimist !
November 16th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
I agree with both of you. Look at the ageing population, the growth in health costs as a %age of GDP, burgeoning fiscal & national debt, the inexorable increases in costs of energy flowing into other costs, etc etc. People are just crazy if they think housing can boom again, let alone be a panacea for the economy & their own savings.
Mental.
November 16th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
I was just chatting to a first home buyer about prices. She mentioned that she recently paid $370k for her house but happened to notice that in 1982 it was sold for 15K. In 1982 a reasonable salary was 20k. Today a reasonable salary is 60k but the house is not 45k! Whats the difference? In 1982 interest rates were 17% today they are 5%. Even so her house is really only worth 150K. Go figure.
November 16th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
@RT: “Given the central role of oil in the modern economy, the peak of production promises to be a turning point of historical magnitude. It seems that banks have been lending more than they had on deposit confident that Tomorrow’s Economic Growth was collateral for To-day’s Debt, without recognising that the expansion was fuelled by cheap oil-based energy. The Governments are now printing yet more money under Keynesian principles in the hope of restoring past prosperity, which may meet with a brief success. But it does, it would stimulate the demand for oil that would again soon breach the supply limits, leading to another price shock and an even worse consequent economic depression. In fact, today 28 billion barrels a year support a world population on 6.7 billion people, but by 2050 the supply will have fallen to a level able to support less than half that number in their present way of life.”
http://www.peakoil.net/files/Campbell_comments_20091110.pdf (refering to the Guardian article on the whistle blowing).
And we are supposed to be 9Billion by 2050 and not 3billion…..and this is going to end pleasantly?
November 16th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
I laugh at people that try and forecast over 40 years in the future. Look at how much the world has changed in the last 10 years! No-one can even dream what the world will be like in 10 years time, let alone 40…
November 16th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
There were optimists on the Titanic too, but they weren’t the ones sounding (the depth in) the holds, nor were they Mr Andrews, the designer.
In short, they weren’t the ones who knew the reality of the situation.
Osty – get you head round exponential growth. Not many ‘get it’, but there is no optimism in its light.
November 16th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
@OSty: Dream or nightmare? In ten years time ie 2019 I think its very highly probable that we will clearly see we are on the down slope after “peak oil” and the energy available will be decreasing at at least 5% per annum if not 9~10% per annum….what I cant “dream” of is what that will look like for my family and indeed other NZers…..if I still have a job then I might be fairly OK….but I expect un-employment to be 20%+ and inbuilt and GDP shrinking at that same %.
So just because you are not capable of understanding issues so laugh them off, well others can understand so can imagine possibilities and can plan to try and make sure bad effects are minimalised…….
regards
November 16th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
I think the first ppl to drown on the Titanic were the mail ppl trying to get the mail out of the flooding compartment(s)…..they sure new there was an issue early on….
regards
November 16th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
err guys, what gave you ANY idea that I could not understand the peak oil issue (steven) or exponential growth (powerdownkiwi)?
Peak oil is a technical fact, and anyone that does a bit of research can see that. However, that is not the point. No-one today has ANY idea what our energy requirements, nor what our energy producing capabilities are going to be like in 40 years time. Technology has proven to change the face of the world faster than anyone could have thought of, and will continue to do so over the next 40 years.
How many technologies will be discovered that will change both the worlds energy consumption and generation over the next 40 years? Who knows.
My initial comment was not supposed to cause a fuss. I was merely pointing out the funny side of predicting 40 years into the future, when focusing on the next 10 is hard enough as it is. LOL
November 16th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Osty : You are right on the money . We can all remember predictions from the past , which never materialized . We can plan for the future , but be open minded to far different outcomes arising . As a 9 y.o. it was amazing enough to see Neil Armstrong strolling across the moon . But who saw 30 years ahead to the internet / global warming / collapse of the iron curtain / boy racers / ” P ” / etc . 40 years is a stretch to predict .
November 16th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
“But who saw 30 years ahead to the internet / global warming / collapse of the iron curtain / boy racers / ” P ” / etc . 40 years is a stretch to predict .”
Well global warming, climate change, for was ‘on the books’ in the mid 70s…And even back then there where major multi nationals moved from things like Halogenated hydrocarbons and converting car fleets to alternative fuels.
And boy racers?…well how many of us where down at Beaumont street? ..
And P yeah that was called ’speed ” back then, along with mandies , lsd, heroin, and mr asia.
These are not predictions but stuff thats been around for decades and nothing has changed…..
And just like Jules Vern with staged rockets to the moon and subs under the nth pole the Internet, communications, where all envisioned and on the cards over 40 yrs ago.
Everyone drove past Fletcher’s in penrose to watch the computers.
And Armstrong …. we saw that coming in the late 50s
It helps being older than 9 when he took his stroll.
Have a close look at all the stips of vacant land set asside in the 1940s and 50s around Auckland….these where for motorways and reginal roads we are building now.
The problem these days is there is no long term vison and action.
November 17th, 2009 at 9:18 am
Steptoe let me remind you of a few quotes:
“I think there’s a world market for about 5 computers.” – Thomas J. Watson, Chairman of the Board, IBM, circa 1948
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” – Ken Olson, President, Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” – Bill Gates, 1981
Like computers, many technologies change so fast that it is somewhat impossible to predict what implications they will have on our lives and the world in the future. The idea is to keep an open mind, and plan for what you can, when you can.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:13 am
“No-one today has ANY idea what our energy requirements, nor what our energy producing capabilities are going to be like in 40 years time.”
We can have an idea of the future but the probability widens as the time frame expands.
@Osty: Apologies: What we do know….6billion plus….projected to 9billion by 2050….on the top of that in energy terms we can say that 4~5% of the World’s population today (Americans) use 25%(?) of the worlds energy. Therefore we can say what that energy use is per capita and multiply that by 9 billion, that in crude terms gives us the upper bound for 2050. We can then say how much oil is that or how much coal and how much CO2 pumped out per annum so PPM of CO2….this should pretty much be the worst case…and what that is in AGW warming, 6Deg C?….(I hate to think). This would be a prediction….for the UN? that’s a valid prediction, but reality is we wont be able to feed even 2 Billion I suspect, I’d give that (9billion) a probabllity of <5%. 2billion greater than 50%……
For me the obvious thing is we have got to where we are from ever increasing efficient high tech extraction of minerals….whats left to extract needs this level of technology or higher….my "fear" is if we start to slide back in technology is that we "suddenly" fall off a cliff back to the stone age….being back at 1890s drilling technology and 100:1 rate of return for oil extraction does us no good….there wont be ANY oil to extract…
regards