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Economic weather report: Fewer Kiwis moving to Australia, but will it last?

November 23rd, 2009

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Alex Tarrant presents an Economic Weather Report in association with ASB. This report looks at net permanent and long term migration from New Zealand to Australia, which has been dropping off in recent months as more Kiwis opt to stay put instead of making the move across the Tasman.

Net migration to Australia was 758 in the month of October this year, similar to levels in September and August. The net monthly figure has not been this low since September 2003. It is down from more than 4,000 in January 2009 and 2,653 in October last year.

Annual figures show the same trend. There were 21,207 net migrants to Australia in the year ended October, down from 34,632 in the year to October 2008 and the peak of 35,395 in the year to December 2008.

The big factor here is fewer Kiwis moving away across the ditch. Departures to Australia in the month of October were half of what they were a year ago, while arrivals have risen by much less.

The question now is whether this trend will continue? January is traditionally the big month for Kiwis moving to ‘the lucky country’. We may see a pick up in departures as those who have put off making the leap this year make the choice in the new year as they see Australia’s economy bounce back more than New Zealand’s.

See the second tab on the chart below for annual net migration from NZ to Australia:


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8 Responses to “Economic weather report: Fewer Kiwis moving to Australia, but will it last?”

  1. Expat Says:

    Alex,

    I once did a study comparing migration stats with house price moves in Auckland. Unfortunately I can’t find it now, but I am sure that the house price moves had a far better correlation with GROSS immigration (currently falling) than with NET immigration (currently rising).
    Any chance you or Bernard can look at something similar?

  2. Rob Says:

    “Less Kiwis moving to Australia, but will it last?”

    This should read FEWER, not less: “Fewer Kiwis moving to Australia…”. I’m sorry, I’m not normally such a pedant, particularly in the ‘blog’ setting, but journalists usually take care to get this one right!

  3. Roger Thompson Says:

    Rob’s right . It sounds as if the little people are taking to their heels , begorrah , and heading for Bushfiresville !

  4. rk Says:

    be fast…aussies are closing the gates….noticed one thing since I moves to Oz…the world doesn’t revolve around the All Blacks…thank god!

  5. Wally Says:

    Hey Rob…maybe that’s fewer Kiwi with less, doing the moving!

  6. steven Says:

    I’d like to see the raw numbers broken down….

    In particular, skills, ie are we losing highly skilled or semi-skilled? also age?, has that mix changed?

    Losing the un-skilled and semi-skilled is a plus…(just to be bitchy).

    regards

  7. Trev Says:

    Rob – don’t apologise.

  8. Alex Tarrant Says:

    Yup, my mistake, changed now.

    Cheers

    Alex

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